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Our favorite doomer has published some interesting stats about the Bay Area:

BA

But he is looking at one month only, and comparing to one year only, 2015, which was hot. We’ll see how it plays out.

Yesterday around here we saw a 9% increase in NSDCC new listings and a 9% drop in sales year-over-year for the first two months of 2016 – which looks rather tame compared to those Bay Area numbers.

We can break it down further too.  The lower price ranges have been in a tight range for the last two years, both in the number of active listings and average list-price-per-sf. There certainly has been more new listings this year in the Above-$1,400,000 range, but unless there is a major panic, they will wait until someone comes along:

NSDCC Inventory in the First Week of March

Up to $800,000
# of Active Listings
Avg LP/sf
Avg. SF
2014
82
$397/sf
1,942sf
2015
70
$379/sf
1,945sf
2016
49
$388/sf
2,108sf
$800K-$1.4M
# of Active Listings
Avg LP/sf
Avg. SF
2014
202
$421/sf
2,936sf
2015
200
$438/sf
2,885sf
2016
207
$418/sf
2,904sf
$1.4M – $2.4M
# of Active Listings
Avg LP/sf
Avg. SF
2014
221
$585/sf
3,761sf
2015
198
$602/sf
3,653sf
2016
254
$574/sf
3,595sf
Over $2,400,000
# of Active Listings
Avg LP/sf
Avg. SF
2014
309
$1,004/sf
6,628sf
2015
316
$1,058/sf
6,342sf
2016
414
$956/sf
6,085sf

Mark says prices in key STEM-centric markets will drop 40% – but if sellers can’t get their price, they are more likely to wait, than dump.

Higher-end sellers are just testing the market, and if they are desperate to sell, a few might lower their price in the summer.  But most will wait it out for months or years – they’re not going to give it away!

Link to Mark’s full article:

http://mhanson.com/3-11-hanson-dying-unicorns-still-leave-hoof-prints-just-know-look/

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