Some disagree with my idea that, while the majority of baby boomers will be fine, there will be a group that is financially restrained and will need to sell their house.
Richard Green is a USC ivory-tower guy, so he obviously knows his stuff. He chimed in on twitter, and cited his report that mentioned:
The massive demographic shift will not result in another housing crisis.
This is because the educational and income levels of the current and future seniors are relatively higher than before, leading them to consume more than previous generations. Also, the size of the Millennial generation will drive the growth of aggregate housing demand, although the growth of per household housing demand may be relatively modest.
He doesn’t just make this stuff up. He also includes formulas to prove his case:
So there you go – nothing to worry about.
A likely scenario is that any future home sellers will get bailed out by the newcomers. According the SANDAG projections, there will be another million people moving to San Diego County! Yippee!