10th Anniversary Show

We have more readers here than video-watchers, so let’s just discuss the last ten years, rather than do a show.

When this blog started ten years ago today, I saw a great potential for realtors to use blogging to demonstrate their talents and abilities.  I thought if I could just get a few months’ head start then maybe I could beat the rush.

The rush of realtor blogs never materialized.

But as we moved through 2006 and 2007, it was clear to data-driven consumers that there was trouble brewing.  Real estate blogs written by non-realtors were flourishing, and I started commenting on the bubble bursting – and backed it up with MLS data.

The blogs that helped me build an audience:

Ben’s blog, with lots of help from CA Renter, a local commenter:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.htm

Rich Toscano’s blog, where everyone got into fights with powayseller:

http://piggington.com/

Calculated Risk and Bill McBride, who ran many of my foreclosure videos:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

and Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

I have met the authors of these blogs, and expressed my appreciation in person. But I’d like to thank them publicly for their dedication to educating the consumer, because without them, bubbleinfo.com would not exist today.

As the bubble began popping and the mass media got more interested, a writer for the L.A.Times named Peter Hong took interest in bubbleinfo.  He came to visit one day and rode around with me while we discussed the market and saw some of the evidence.

He had the great Don Bartletti contact me for a photo shoot, and the next thing I know, I’m on the front page of the Los Angeles times – above the fold!

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/apr/02/business/fi-real-estate2

jim the realtor

My phone started ringing at 7am that day, and the first call was from ABC News Nightline.  A couple of weeks later, their reporter Vicky Mabrey spent 1.5 days with me, and the clients who were featured in the video ended up buying a handful of houses from us – even though I had never met them before the day we shot the video!

The article in the Times and the Nightline show both ran in April, 2009, which was the same month we hired Richard Morgan to assist us with helping buyers.  It also happened to be the low point of the San Diego Case-Shiller index!

The added media exposure, combined with the bottoming of the market caused the blog readership to explode.  We were working 100+ hours per week and scrambling like crazy to help everyone we could!  Richard and I have closed over 150 sales with people who came from the blog – thank you very much!

Our peak year was 2011, when we closed 73 sales, and a third of them were with blog readers.  Back then, the Google Analytics for bubbleinfo.com was showing around 12,000 unique users each month.

But in 2012 there was a gigantic shift in the market that changed things forever – the banks stopped foreclosing.

We had hired two great assistants and thought that, between REO listings and blog buyers, we’d be pumping out 70-100 sales every year.

But in 2013, we received no REO listings.  So I began a deliberate shift in the content of the blog in hopes of appealing more to sellers.

It was a big gamble.

Sellers are notorious for their lack of investigation – they just want their price, and grab an agent they think can deliver.

But I believed that showing pertinent data AND demonstrating my abilities would cause some sellers to hire me to assist them.  It hasn’t been an easy road, but 10 of the 21 listings that I closed last year were with sellers who came from the blog!

I say it hasn’t been easy because I think I have lost some blog readers who were interested in buying, but haven’t seen enough buyer-related content here.  But I still work with buyers!

Of my closed sales over the last 12 months, I’ve maintained about a 50/50 split between sellers and buyers.  I hope that buyers can benefit from all the content here, and that you contact me when ready – I want to help you!

But I have to keep a steady dose of seller-related content to keep sellers interested, and keep demonstrating why you should hire me to sell your home.

It has been a great ten years!  With over 5,200 blog posts and 2,000+ videos, it has been a fantastic outlet for me to share an insider’s view of the marketplace with you.  Thank you for being here, and let’s all stick around for another ten!

If you, or someone you know, is thinking of moving, I’d sure appreciate a call!

Get Good Help

The difference is that when you hire me to sell your house – you get me, a long-time veteran of bidding wars and how to handle them with specific strategies so you sell for top dollar.

Anybody can shuffle multiple offers – my skill is getting them to compete against each other and drive the price higher.

NSDCC August Sales

Yesterday, the NAR reported the national home sales for August.  The number was below estimates, and there was some concern about the ‘market’.

We already reviewed the August sales on September 6th, split into two categories.  To update, and to pick up the eight late-reporters, here are the August sales for comparison to the last four years:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
Avg. DOM
Median SP
Avg. SP
SP:LP
2011
240
$389
80
$825,000
$1,069,939
92%
2012
298
$381
77
$865,000
$1,264,301
94%
2013
324
$437
40
$953,750
$1,188,031
95%
2014
246
$500
45
$1,050,000
$1,383,386
96%
2015
266
$473
46
$1,050,000
$1,387,349
96%

Our local market feels a little squishy out on the street, but statistically, it looks to be in good shape. There would need to be evidence of sellers caving (SP:LP) or buyers fleeing (# of sales) to cause any major concern.

Auction Select

beta

I keep hoping that the auction format will take hold, and at least become one of the choices for sellers to consider.  The Harcourts hubbub has settled down – I haven’t seen or heard of any of their auctions lately – but auction.com is finally sticking their toe in the water.

They are beta-testing their Select division, which is a happy blend of an online auction and regular transaction terms.  From their website:

  • A Buyer’s Premium of $2,000 will be added to the Winning Bid amount to determine the Total Purchase Price (TPP).  The buyer is responsible for paying the TPP whether using financing or cash to purchase the home.
  • An Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Total Purchase Price, or $1,000, (whichever is greater), is required at the time you execute your Purchase Sales Agreement.  This $1,000 will be applied towards your closing costs and/or down payment at closing.
  • A Buyer’s Broker Commission of 2.5%, or $1,200 (whichever is greater) is available to registered Buyer’s agents/brokers.  Click the Agent/Broker Info link at the bottom of this page to find out how agents/brokers can register to be eligible for commissions.
  • A 15-day Finance Contingency is available for qualified buyers who intend to purchase using financing.  To learn more about finance contingencies, view our FAQs.
  • An Inspection Contingency is available on this property as follows:  A 10-day Inspection Contingency is available for financed transactions, and a 7-day Inspection Contingency is available for cash purchases.  Find out more about inspection contingencies on our FAQs.
  • Buyer may request a Seller Concession credit of up to 3%, not to exceed Buyer’s recurring and nonrecurring closing costs, for all financed purchases.  View our FAQs for more information on seller concessions.
  • Buyers will receive insurable title upon successful closing.  View our FAQs for more information on title insurance.
  • If Buyer uses the Seller’s designated closing company/agent, Seller shall pay the Buyer’s title policy premium for a state-specific standard owner’s title policy.
  • Until the Seller’s reserve price is met, Auction.com may counter bid on behalf of the Seller.  Counter bidding gives Buyers and Sellers more flexibility to find a mutually agreeable price. Counter bids do not occur after the Seller’s reserve price is met.

They just couldn’t resist the last paragraph, and it’s one that will likely be a turn-off to casual bidders. But unless they get to the reserve price, who cares – if their shill has to try to bid it up in order to hit the reserve price, then the buyer can always say no.

But they’ve only had five listings in the state so far:

https://select.auction.com/search/ca-state

The online aspect sounds convenient, but it’s the live event that makes it worth it.  The live auction is where buyers might get hyped up enough to bid a little higher than they thought, and be more likely to hit the reserve price.

They have Google behind them:

http://www.inman.com/2015/09/03/8-ways-google-is-circling-real-estate

So if the beta-testing works out the bugs, and Google can spend millions on advertising it, then the auction.com Select format could be what brings residential resale auctions to the masses.

If they could incorporate a platform where ANY listing agent could utilize the service and have it be friendly to all, then we’d really be cooking!

Inventory Watch

Last year, the inventory counts in our top three price categories hit their final peak during the third week of September, then declined through January. Buyers – if you like having more homes from which to choose, this is your week!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Natalie Off to College

natalie

We’ve dropped off our baby at college this weekend.

She’s living in the dorms with two girls she met on Facebook.  The ‘efficient’ room dimensions were known in advance, so Natalie and Mom planned well, and thanks to UCLA being extremely organized, the move-in was completed without a hitch.

donna 1906

Natalie is a dance major, and is one of 30 kids who got into the UCLA Dance School this year.  We have high hopes for her career as a professional dancer, but as the film crew found out, there is a contingency plan:

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