We’ve been enjoying a statistical exuberance that is somewhat misguided.

The latest Case-Shiller Index was the March reading, which includes sales data from the previous two months too.  Our recent local data has been looking strong as well, with both April and May sales and prices higher year-over-year.

But rates were lower when those buying decisions were made.  Rates are heading north now, and are higher than they have been all year:

The reports of good news will keep coming all month, and sellers will stay optimistic – and be reluctant to lower their price in the midst of the euphoria.  But the prime spring selling season is complete, and the summer sales should be impacted if rates keep rising.

Back in 2013 when rates started rising, some buyers rushed to purchase – but that was 10% to 20% ago, price-wise. They are going to be more tempted to wait it out this time.

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