SD Case-Shiller Index – March 2015

The Case-Shiller Index for San Diego was flat for the last three months of 2014.

But when rates dropped back into the 3.50% to 3.75% range in January, the market surged and both sales and prices picked up.

Here are the San Diego readings for 2015:

M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg

The Case-Shiller Index is a lagging indicator, and its reflection of buying decisions made in December-February seems like ancient history today.

David Blitzer said:

“Home prices are currently rising more quickly than either per capita personal income (3.1%) or wages (2.2%), narrowing the pool of future home-buyers.

All of this suggests that some future moderation in home prices gains is likely,” he said. “Moreover, consumer debt levels seem to be manageable.”

Inventory Watch

On Memorial Day last year we had 1,037 active NSDCC listings, and today there are 973 houses for sale. The LP-per-sf, average DOM, and average SF are all about the same too!

Given that the houses, sellers, and buyers are virtually 100% different this year, the statistics being virtually identical to last year is an amazing feat of human psychology!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:


1927 Beach Bungalow

The classic beach bungalow has special appeal to those who remember growing up near the ocean and living in one just like this – and there aren’t many left! You’ll be paying close to a million or more to be this close to the sand anywhere else in North SD County – and this can be yours for $649,000!

Effect of Rates on Prices

We saw yesterday that the number of sales in the first four months of 2015 was only exceeded by those in 2013 – which was the only other time mortgage rates were in the mid-3s.

Let’s compare the mortgage-rate history of those two years:

2013 vs 2015

In 2015, the spring kick got a early boost as rates dropped close to the enticing 3.5% range.  But now rates are on the upswing.

This graph from the latimes.com shows how prices jumped substantially in the first half of 2013, but stalled as soon as rates began rising:

price trend so cal

The lower rates haven’t boosted prices as much this year – of course, we started at a higher point. Rising rates now should cause at least the same effect that they did in the second half of 2013 – flatsville.

rates apr19


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