There will still be a few stragglers, but the October numbers are shaping up as expected – fewer sales but healthy pricing. The frenzy was zooming by the end of 2012, but it was settling down by October 2013 after rates popped that June.
Here are the last 11 NSDCC Octobers, for comparison:
October | |||||
2003 | |||||
2004 | |||||
2005 | |||||
2006 | |||||
2007 | |||||
2008 | |||||
2009 | |||||
2010 | |||||
2011 | |||||
2012 | |||||
2013 | |||||
2014 |
Look how similar this year is to 2005. After two years of spectacular run-up in both cases, we’re at the identical $/sf.
With rates bobbing around 4%, our softer landing should continue.
The big difference is that the 2014 sales are predominantly to real buyers. Buyers that are going to live in the house and who put down real money and qualified for a real mortgage. The unknown is how long the institutions are going to hold on to all those “rentals” they bought 2-3 years ago and if there really is other shadow underwater and bank-owned inventory that will come home to roost.
Another interesting thing from these numbers. The $$ psft gain from 2003 to 2013 is pretty darn close to an even 3% a year, all the intervening damage, destruction and histrionics aside.
IMO the Big difference is they are not building near enough homes or selling them to marginal buyers this time.
So IMO the down side is limited (without total economic meltdown that is)
Interesting that the property market is back to where it was 9 years ago in terms of $ per square foot and that as elbarcosr says the average turns out to be very similar to the long term price appreciation gradient in “inflationary” dollars.
I should have said
Unless QCOM implodes
Dang!
The prices per sf for 2001 and 2002 are much lower than those of 2010 and 2011, a fact denoting a sharper rise in price during the 2001-2005 rise than this time around. The last time it was a bubble while this time buyers smart up and stopped inflating it in time.
Maybe someone should rent out beds in travel trailers that just move around town. Cheaper than motel 6. I just dont know how the workn man can afford these prices. Not everyone one is living off a trust or an inheritance. Is so cal for the affluent pretty much? I heard el cajon is where all the broke people go.
El Cajon and Arizona are the same avgjoe. You should stay there.
I bet you have never been to az. One of those Californians who think they are somebody cause they live n so cal.