The inventory count hasn’t dropped much. Last year the number of houses for sale declined 7.2% between September 2 and October 28 as sellers checked out for the holidays. This year it has only dropped 2.6%.
With more sellers waiting longer before canceling their listing for the holidays, it might make you think that they must be ‘motivated’, but it is the opposite – if their price was right, they would have sold by now.
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
January 20 |
72 |
$384/sf |
41 |
1,877sf |
January 27 |
75 |
$399/sf |
40 |
1,891sf |
February 3 |
78 |
$409/sf |
41 |
1,876sf |
February 10 |
82 |
$395/sf |
38 |
1,927sf |
February 17 |
85 |
$387/sf |
35 |
1,929sf |
February 24 |
90 |
$383/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 3 |
82 |
$397/sf |
39 |
1,942sf |
March 10 |
88 |
$377/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
March 17 |
89 |
$366/sf |
34 |
2,038sf |
March 24 |
79 |
$369/sf |
34 |
2,031sf |
March 31 |
78 |
$367/sf |
39 |
2,069sf |
April 7 |
87 |
$373/sf |
32 |
2,054sf |
April 14 |
97 |
$380/sf |
31 |
2,000sf |
April 21 |
87 |
$377/sf |
32 |
2,062sf |
April 28 |
107 |
$379/sf |
29 |
2,044sf |
May 5 |
114 |
$376/sf |
27 |
2,046sf |
May 12 |
108 |
$385/sf |
31 |
2,012sf |
May 19 |
107 |
$385/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
105 |
$375/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
102 |
$376/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
102 |
$377/sf |
37 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
104 |
$369/sf |
35 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
111 |
$380/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
119 |
$376/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
122 |
$387/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jul 14 |
127 |
$388/sf |
34 |
0sf |
Jul 21 |
135 |
$381/sf |
36 |
0sf |
Jul 28 |
144 |
$382/sf |
37 |
0sf |
Aug 4 |
148 |
$379/sf |
39 |
0sf |
Aug 11 |
135 |
$375/sf |
42 |
0sf |
Aug 25 |
135 |
$374/sf |
43 |
0sf |
Sep 1 |
126 |
$377/sf |
46 |
0sf |
Sep 8 |
130 |
$375/sf |
46 |
0sf |
Sep 15 |
134 |
$369/sf |
45 |
0sf |
Sep 22 |
127 |
$376/sf |
49 |
0sf |
Sep 29 |
132 |
$378/sf |
48 |
0sf |
Oct 6 |
130 |
$367/sf |
48 |
0sf |
Oct 13 |
131 |
$378/sf |
44 |
0sf |
Oct 20 |
130 |
$385/sf |
45 |
0sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
January 20 |
174 |
$444/sf |
51 |
2,882sf |
January 27 |
166 |
$435/sf |
52 |
2,902sf |
February 3 |
165 |
$441/sf |
53 |
2,857sf |
February 10 |
175 |
$443/sf |
51 |
2,852sf |
February 17 |
180 |
$447/sf |
50 |
2,803sf |
February 24 |
188 |
$438/sf |
44 |
2,846sf |
March 3 |
202 |
$421/sf |
44 |
2,936sf |
March 10 |
215 |
$431/sf |
41 |
2,854sf |
March 17 |
223 |
$421/sf |
42 |
2,918sf |
March 24 |
217 |
$419/sf |
42 |
2,941sf |
March 31 |
223 |
$425/sf |
44 |
2,887sf |
April 7 |
224 |
$428/sf |
44 |
2,881sf |
April 14 |
233 |
$429/sf |
44 |
2,892sf |
April 21 |
237 |
$432/sf |
44 |
2,894sf |
April 28 |
240 |
$430/sf |
45 |
2,848sf |
May 5 |
272 |
$434/sf |
42 |
2,838sf |
May 12 |
269 |
$438/sf |
42 |
2,831sf |
May 19 |
275 |
$436/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
276 |
$429/sf |
49 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
270 |
$431/sf |
50 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
292 |
$454/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
299 |
$443/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
304 |
$437/sf |
51 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
304 |
$431/sf |
53 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
307 |
$423/sf |
55 |
0sf |
Jul 14 |
297 |
$421/sf |
54 |
0sf |
Jul 21 |
310 |
$410/sf |
53 |
0sf |
Jul 28 |
329 |
$411/sf |
53 |
0sf |
Aug 4 |
337 |
$415/sf |
52 |
0sf |
Aug 11 |
336 |
$420/sf |
51 |
0sf |
Aug 25 |
318 |
$428/sf |
55 |
0sf |
Sep 1 |
310 |
$426/sf |
56 |
0sf |
Sep 8 |
306 |
$427/sf |
56 |
0sf |
Sep 15 |
312 |
$434/sf |
57 |
0sf |
Sep 22 |
315 |
$435/sf |
60 |
0sf |
Sep 29 |
308 |
$443/sf |
59 |
0sf |
Oct 6 |
304 |
$435/sf |
60 |
0sf |
Oct 13 |
304 |
$432/sf |
61 |
0sf |
Oct 20 |
311 |
$440/sf |
62 |
0sf |
The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
227 |
$580/sf |
81 |
3,692sf |
December 2 |
222 |
$588/sf |
85 |
3,653sf |
December 9 |
219 |
$586/sf |
87 |
3,636sf |
December 16 |
211 |
$593/sf |
88 |
3,627sf |
December 23 |
196 |
$601/sf |
94 |
3,581sf |
December 30 |
190 |
$597/sf |
100 |
3,591sf |
January 6 |
175 |
$595/sf |
97 |
3,594sf |
January 13 |
184 |
$600/sf |
92 |
3,590sf |
January 20 |
187 |
$589/sf |
83 |
3,663sf |
January 27 |
195 |
$589/sf |
80 |
3,649sf |
February 3 |
196 |
$573/sf |
78 |
3,730sf |
February 10 |
205 |
$583/sf |
76 |
3,687sf |
February 17 |
216 |
$582/sf |
72 |
3,729sf |
February 24 |
211 |
$584/sf |
77 |
3,744sf |
March 3 |
221 |
$585/sf |
78 |
3,761sf |
March 10 |
228 |
$585/sf |
77 |
3,740sf |
March 17 |
217 |
$584/sf |
75 |
3,744sf |
March 24 |
231 |
$584/sf |
73 |
3,742sf |
March 31 |
232 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,750sf |
April 7 |
230 |
$569/sf |
71 |
3,753sf |
April 14 |
233 |
$564/sf |
69 |
3,748sf |
April 21 |
244 |
$563/sf |
67 |
3,780sf |
April 28 |
238 |
$566/sf |
66 |
3,757sf |
May 5 |
247 |
$571/sf |
61 |
3,746sf |
May 12 |
251 |
$559/sf |
64 |
3,782sf |
May 19 |
256 |
$562/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
263 |
$552/sf |
69 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
261 |
$561/sf |
69 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
273 |
$566/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
276 |
$571/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
289 |
$581/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
292 |
$594/sf |
72 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
288 |
$588/sf |
74 |
0sf |
Jul 14 |
290 |
$590/sf |
72 |
0sf |
Jul 21 |
277 |
$578/sf |
74 |
0sf |
Jul 28 |
271 |
$579/sf |
71 |
0sf |
Aug 4 |
269 |
$586/sf |
70 |
0sf |
Aug 11 |
276 |
$571/sf |
71 |
0sf |
Aug 25 |
271 |
$579/sf |
81 |
0sf |
Sep 1 |
265 |
$581/sf |
82 |
0sf |
Sep 8 |
270 |
$580/sf |
80 |
0sf |
Sep 15 |
279 |
$575/sf |
82 |
0sf |
Sep 22 |
281 |
$563/sf |
83 |
Sep 29 |
278 |
$568/sf |
82 |
0sf |
Oct 6 |
266 |
$583/sf |
81 |
0sf |
Oct 13 |
278 |
$583/sf |
83 |
0sf |
Oct 20 |
270 |
$591/sf |
87 |
0sf |
The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
November 25 |
340 |
$1,040/sf |
159 |
6,347sf |
December 2 |
330 |
$1,049/sf |
160 |
6,342sf |
December 9 |
318 |
$1,057/sf |
163 |
6,392sf |
December 16 |
317 |
$1,049/sf |
163 |
6,420sf |
December 23 |
302 |
$1,063/sf |
169 |
6,405sf |
December 30 |
285 |
$1,074/sf |
174 |
6,460sf |
January 6 |
285 |
$1,073/sf |
171 |
6,477sf |
January 13 |
295 |
$1,057/sf |
168 |
6,480sf |
January 20 |
297 |
$1,050/sf |
157 |
6,537sf |
January 27 |
307 |
$1,041/sf |
152 |
6,513sf |
February 3 |
297 |
$1,048/sf |
152 |
6,545sf |
February 10 |
315 |
$1,024/sf |
146 |
6,519sf |
February 17 |
315 |
$1,030/sf |
148 |
6,572sf |
February 24 |
314 |
$1,028/sf |
148 |
6,611sf |
March 3 |
309 |
$1,004/sf |
145 |
6,628sf |
March 10 |
316 |
$1,011/sf |
141 |
6,576sf |
March 17 |
329 |
$999/sf |
136 |
6,557sf |
March 24 |
331 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,563sf |
March 31 |
336 |
$995/sf |
131 |
6,574sf |
April 7 |
345 |
$988/sf |
128 |
6,477sf |
April 14 |
349 |
$996/sf |
126 |
6,534sf |
April 21 |
353 |
$995/sf |
124 |
6,523sf |
April 28 |
366 |
$980/sf |
120 |
6,543sf |
May 5 |
379 |
$974/sf |
119 |
6,539sf |
May 12 |
388 |
$967/sf |
118 |
6,509sf |
May 19 |
390 |
$1,000/sf |
0 |
0sf |
May 26 |
393 |
$1,015/sf |
122 |
0sf |
Jun 2 |
395 |
$1,007/sf |
124 |
0sf |
Jun 9 |
398 |
$1,010/sf |
125 |
0sf |
Jun 16 |
397 |
$1,016/sf |
130 |
0sf |
Jun 23 |
417 |
$911/sf |
116 |
0sf |
Jun 30 |
416 |
$904/sf |
120 |
0sf |
Jul 7 |
411 |
$912/sf |
120 |
0sf |
Jul 14 |
419 |
$893/sf |
119 |
0sf |
Jul 21 |
424 |
$884/sf |
119 |
0sf |
Jul 28 |
423 |
$882/sf |
123 |
0sf |
Aug 4 |
420 |
$888/sf |
126 |
0sf |
Aug 11 |
424 |
$891/sf |
127 |
0sf |
Aug 25 |
427 |
$878/sf |
128 |
0sf |
Sep 1 |
419 |
$863/sf |
133 |
0sf |
Sep 8 |
412 |
$900/sf |
139 |
0sf |
Sep 15 |
415 |
$883/sf |
139 |
0sf |
Sep 22 |
426 |
$849/sf |
136 |
0sf |
Sep 29 |
423 |
$866/sf |
141 |
0sf |
Oct 6 |
409 |
$953/sf |
143 |
0sf |
Oct 13 |
402 |
$991/sf |
145 |
0sf |
Oct 20 |
380 |
$1,017/sf |
150 |
0sf |
New pendings have been remarkably consistent over the last couple of months:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
May 30 |
70 |
84 |
June 5 |
87 |
64 |
June 11 |
77 |
69 |
June 17 |
73 |
66 |
June 24 |
100 |
69 |
July 1 |
86 |
64 |
July 8 |
81 |
53 |
July 15 |
106 |
54 |
July 22 |
105 |
89 |
July 29 |
71 |
74 |
Aug 5 |
105 |
64 |
Aug 12 |
77 |
61 |
Aug 19 |
88 |
73 |
Aug 26 |
87 |
77 |
Sep 2 |
76 |
55 |
Sep 9 |
85 |
58 |
Sep 16 |
102 |
61 |
Sep 23 |
84 |
54 |
Sep 30 |
73 |
80 |
Oct 7 |
80 |
61 |
Oct 14 |
78 |
53 |
Oct 21 |
70 |
63 |
Oct 28 |
54 |
40 |
Nov 4 |
63 |
53 |
Nov 11 |
49 |
64 |
Nov 18 |
52 |
44 |
Nov 25 |
48 |
40 |
Dec 2 |
25 |
34 |
Dec 9 |
45 |
47 |
Dec 16 |
56 |
46 |
Dec 23 |
21 |
39 |
Dec 30 |
14 |
23 |
Jan 6 |
63 |
25 |
Jan 13 |
75 |
44 |
Jan 20 |
98 |
51 |
Jan 27 |
71 |
56 |
Feb 3 |
74 |
63 |
Feb 10 |
95 |
59 |
Feb 17 |
81 |
76 |
Feb 24 |
80 |
70 |
Mar 3 |
88 |
71 |
Mar 10 |
98 |
54 |
Mar 17 |
87 |
65 |
Mar 24 |
89 |
76 |
Mar 31 |
77 |
57 |
April 7 |
98 |
61 |
April 14 |
108 |
72 |
April 21 |
87 |
62 |
April 28 |
122 |
73 |
May 5 |
144 |
67 |
May 12 |
96 |
85 |
May 19 |
87 |
61 |
May 26 |
97 |
72 |
Jun 2 |
90 |
59 |
Jun 9 |
108 |
52 |
Jun 16 |
103 |
65 |
Jun 23 |
131 |
62 |
Jun 30 |
85 |
70 |
July 7 |
83 |
59 |
July 14 |
100 |
62 |
July 21 |
112 |
75 |
July 28 |
113 |
62 |
Aug 4 |
84 |
48 |
Aug 11 |
95 |
62 |
Aug 18 |
83 |
54 |
Aug 25 |
72 |
54 |
Sep 1 |
71 |
60 |
Sep 8 |
81 |
57 |
Sep 15 |
80 |
49 |
Sep 22 |
77 |
49 |
Sep 29 |
79 |
51 |
Oct 6 |
78 |
54 |
Oct 13 |
73 |
54 |
Oct 20 |
70 |
64 |
Jim, I can’t thank you enough for getting that miracle sale on our home. You obviously NAILED the list price, because we got full price after 5 days on market! And we made a small profit, so everyone’s happy.
JTR for (NAR) President!
I would like to introduce a new “wrinkle.” Think about the last 70 years of SD Area history. Now think “estate sale.” These are going on market and staying there until they sell and at such a low cost basis that the heirs can wait. Worse because of multiple inputs the poor agent may not be able to adjust price as easily as with a single client. Makes for an interesting profession.
JTR for (NAR) President!
Wait, I thought you liked JtR? 😉
And we made a small profit
Yes, +7% over your 2008 price, which not everyone can say who bought in the area that year. We also listed the same week as a short-sale listed two streets over. It was the same model as ours, and listed 27% UNDER us – and we still got full price!
I’m proud of that one – thanks Kwaping!
when do most realtors check out for the holidays?
I guess the FED owns about 14% of the treasuries outstanding these days.
Does anyone have a scenario where bond prices would plunge and thus yields rise basically ending the party?
It seems the FED has been able to buy all the bonds. when the QE party is over who will buy bonds that yield nothing?
When does the market start up again usually ?
I the market picks up in February does that mean it was listed and sold in December/January?
More pendings, less listings. It’ll start dropping fairly rapidly now.
Agreed, and it is obvious to the sellers who live in the homes that have been on the market for 30+ days – nobody is coming by now.
The listings will start coming back on in January, but the real action starts the week after the Super Bowl.
Hopefully they don’t forget to get vacant property insurance on these homes. Most policies lapse after 30 days empty.