Hat tip to W.C. Varones for sending in this article about Gen-Xers leaving San Diego because housing is too expensive – and taking their kids with them:
http://m.utsandiego.com/news/2014/aug/13/report-gen-x-leaving-san-diego-taking-their-kids/
From 2008 to 2013, a period that frames the Great Recession and its slow-growth economic aftermath, the overall population of San Diego County grew by 3.9 percent to 3.17 million people, according to Cunningham’s analysis of census data compiled by the California Department of Finance.
However, the population actually fell by 4.6 percent over the five years in Generation X, the demographic cohort from ages 35 to 49. And Millennials, the cohort from birth to 19 (and the largest group), fell by 1.9 percent, indicating enough Gen X families left town to offset births and immigration of young people.
W.C. asked me what my experience has been with Gen X families leaving town. I’m not your typical realtor, but I haven’t had many Gen-X families move out of the county lately – just 2 out of 66.
Here are the seller categories of my 66 non-REO listings since 2010:
Investors/landlords: 24
Move Up or Down (within SD County): 21
Estate Sales: 11
Job Relo Out of SD: 6*
Divorce: 2
Retired, left SD: 2
* Of the six who left town, two were Gen-Xers
I think analysts and reporters jump to conclusions, and for the data to move a couple of percentage points in either direction shouldn’t be a cause for alarm. They included this at the end:
Meanwhile, Baby Boomers and retirees arrived in relative droves, with both groups rising in population by more than 15 percent.
Real estate is for affluent people now, regardless of age.
http://www.nusinstitute.org/press/releases/San-Diego’s-vanishing-Generation-X.html
Old news. The older 1/2 of Gen-X’rs have been leaving California for a decade or more. The typical scenario is once the 2nd kid is on the horizon, they say f-this cost of living and head out. It will keep happening regardless of what label you put on the ‘generation’. California is great if you love roomates (up to 25 years old) or have already made your cash, but slugging through with the kids – you really gotta want it. Looking back at the 15 couple holiday party we had in 2000, 10 couples headed out within a year or two, 6 to Colorado, 2 to Washington/Oregon and 2 essentially back ‘home’ to the Midwest. And no, it wasn’t because our party sucked.
Agreed, old news and questionable conclusions at best.
If expensive housing is the concern, then it’s a money issue, not age issue. More-affluent people are moving here, and less-affluent people are leaving.
For those who can tough it out, it will be great. If more people move away, and baby boomers die off – there will be fewer people on the freeway!
From what I saw the Gen-x was the most unlucky group, they just happen to be at the right age to buy a home just as the last bubble was peaking. A lot of them got messed up.
The later Gens should fare better IMO.
And no traffic will not get better, California is still growing at about 1500 people PER-DAY!
Huh? But it’s so expensive here????? 😆
I am GenX and I was born and raised in CA. I did a one year stint in Florida and I would never go back willingly.
With that said, there have been plenty of times that I contemplated moving the family out of state. However, the biggest reason why we never pulled the trigger on leaving the state is because the wife and I don’t have any family outside of CA.
Here’s another reason people don’t leave, and others will probably keep coming – today’s temperatures in cheaper areas:
Miami: 95
Charlotte: 83
Austin: 98
Phoenix: 100
Las Vegas: 98
San Diego: 75
Thanks- good info.
Another way to look at this is that once you own here, you don’t leave. The Gen X’ers leaving are those who want to own, but can’t here.
I think it’s more the humidity than the heat (or the combo) ,
I spent a lot of time in south Florida, I kind of like it there, (Florida continues to grow fast as well)
I think access to the beach is a big draw as well. (Something not easy to do from landlocked states) (or Austin, I really never got Austin I think that is just some weird anomaly that is not explainable).
Like Texas (some weird anomaly that is not explainable), heck even the Governor of Texas wants to move to SoCal, yea you can find a job but you will be miserable living there most likely LOL.
Just kidding. But seriously I could move to Florida (maybe Fort Lauderdale)
Taken totally out of context… there’s nothing price won’t fix. 😉
Which sort of suggests that a bit of the price differential in San Diego is a climate premium. You can pay less elsewhere but the climate is worse. In essence stated, how much extra would you pay to live in San Diego’s climate than in say Northern Indiana?
More of a Job, Beach and climate premium.
If your not a Bio-tech engineer or Software Eng type and not self employed then maybe SD is not for you however.
why overpay for a house in a market that is being propped up with funny money? I’m out. Most of the people in east san diego county cant afford gas to get to the beach.
the people with money dont care about the prices but those who actually have to work can get affordable housing in a decent area elsewhere. the only homes cheap n ca are n ghetto neighborhoods. people dont want to raise kids there.
Housing is a pass-thru cost in costal CA. We out-appreciate the rest of the nation. Our housing is the best retirement plan, ever. When you are done surfing you can sell your house at a greatly appreciated price, cash in the chips and retire in Indiana if you so choose.
But by then Prop 13 will act as a pair of golden handcuff and you will never leave.
Life is good in California.