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2014-06-27 14.38.15-2

A flipper checked in yesterday:

I’m getting really bearish. Nothing makes sense. There’s going to be some flippers without chairs when the music stops. Hopefully we have another 2-3 years in this run. Putting fixers in the MLS has really been eye opening. So many big groups writing offers just to tie them up, impossible for the small guy to pick one off. It used to be that the hard part was the rehab, now the hard part is finding the deal and the rehab seems to be the no brainer, and construction guys are getting cheaper. Hard money getting cheaper too, just paid 1.5 points and 7.99% to buy a house I’m closing on next week.

The market has been logic-free for a while now, and it will come to a halt one day without notice.  Keep an eye on the sales count – it will be the first sign of trouble.

But the June count for detached-homes sold in San Diego County still looks in-line with a healthy-ish market:

SD County Detached-Home Sales, June

2011: 2,061

2012: 2,367

2013: 2,328

2014: 1,980 (-15%)

The late-reporters will add enough to get close to last year’s count.  The final tally will probably be within 7% to 9% of the 2013 count, which is pretty good considering how hot it was last year.

But if you are thinking of selling, there isn’t enough extra upside potential to wait any longer.

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