Yesterday I was saying how we should be running into a glutty market by the end of summer – unless sellers are willing to adjust their prices in time.

Here is the recent history of list and sold pricing for San Diego County houses:

SD County pricing May 2014

You can see how the trends were rising quickly during the frenzy era – but for almost a year now, the solds have been in a fairly tight range. Yet the list pricing is starting to take off again.

Evidence has never stopped sellers from dreaming though.  In this latest survey, 40% say they will price their home above market value this quarter:


An excerpt:

“I even hear them say that prices are skyrocketing,” said Jeremy Cunningham, a northern Virginia real estate agent with Redfin, a real estate brokerage. “When you ask them what their data source is or where they’re getting their information, it’s more of a vibe.”

Forty percent of sellers surveyed by Redfin said they are planning on pricing their homes above market value when they list in the second quarter of this year; that’s up from 33 percent at the beginning of the year. Redfin polled 1,128 active home sellers across 25 U.S. cities.

Confidence is behind it all. Fifty-two percent said they were confident that now is a good time to sell, versus just 37.5 percent three months ago.

We already saw how April was a bad month around here for average sold pricing, yet sellers keep pushing higher:

LP Avg $/sf
SP Avg $/sf
% diff
Jan 2014
Apr 2014

When there is more than a 20% gap between LP and SP averages, a glut of over-priced homes is soon to follow – unless the April dip in pricing was an anomaly.

Are you are thinking about selling your home? Contact me today at jim@jimklinge.com or (858) 997-3801.

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