5 Comments

1. 

   elbarcosr on April 7, 2014 at 6:56 am

   Honest and straightforward as ever. Good report. To me, sounds like you are describing a healthy market with a skew towards the sellers favor.

   One thing. Instead of the phrase “over peak pricing” which is a phrase that evokes emotion of either jubilation or fear, depending on which side of the fence you sit, would it be equally accurate to say “in line with long term historical inflation-adjusted pricing” which sticks to data reference, and leaves the emotion out of it?

2. 

   Jim the Realtor on April 7, 2014 at 7:35 am

   Yes, and we can change the real estate world with that simple adjustment.

   But buyers and the media will want to stick with the former!

3. 

   elbarcosr on April 7, 2014 at 7:57 am

   True true. Gotta sell newspapers (or blog hits 😉 I didn’t look at ppsqft, but it looks like there were plenty peak sales around them parts in the high 700’s and low 800’s. Someone is going to grab this one at low 700’s, get the – still ridiculous – low interest rates and enjoy this great neighborhood for the next 20 years. And sellers will get a decent price. win win. I really think we are at an interesting point where everyone is making out well; sellers aren’t getting squeezed anymore – actually walking with a little change in the pocket, buyers are locking in great financing at not unreasonable prices (given north county SD is one of the more desireable places to live in the country, if not world). If pricing ramps up another 15-20% by the end of the year, then it is a different story. But moderate 3-6% yoy increases from here on out and everything is fine.

4. 

   Jim the Realtor on April 7, 2014 at 8:21 am

   We’re at $491/sf at list which sounds ridiculous but all of the small homes get caught up in this metric. Then try to figure the one-story premium with an apples-to-oranges comparison and it’s a mess.

   The peak-pricing comparisons ignore other differences too. In 2005 the long-term buyers would get a 5.87% 30Y fixed-rate on average, but most opted for a more exotic loan and were focused more on the short-term.

   When the 2 out of 5 year tax-exemption came out in 1997, it was a sexy deal, and good for the ego. We were younger, more mobile, and liked the thought of making tax-free money while buying a bigger estate every couple of years.

   Now, everyone is 9 years older and more settled down. It turns out that moving every few years was a fad.

5. 

   Susie on April 7, 2014 at 5:30 pm

   Just a note here, JtR. Right this minute, I hear an ice-cream truck in my neighborhood for the first time ever. I can only surmise two things. 1. Does that mean YOU are making an appearance OR 2. Does it mean I won your contest with my guess at the sold price of this listing? I hope it’s #1 but I’ll be happy if #2 comes true… 🙂