1. The frenzy re-sort is underway, as hopeful sellers wait for the lucky sale to come their way. There isn’t any panic in the streets because sales remain strong, and very few sellers need to sell bad enough that they will dump on price. Besides, holding out has been working for many.
2. Ivory-tower types like cnbc.com keep hammering at reasons why the market will cave – HT to daytrip for sending in the latest on weak household formation. But meanwhile it is rare that you can find a decent house under $700,000 around NSDCC, and if you want more than just a house that will do for now, expect to spend at least $900,000.
3. To make sense of the market, it helps if you can discharge all previous assumptions and beliefs. Big money is here, and has been providing adequate demand to soak up most of those sellers who are willing to tune their price. Example:
There were more NSDCC 3Q sales this year than last year (881 vs. 845), even though average pricing was 18% higher ($440/sf vs. $373/sf).
4. Agents for flippers are poor bluffers. They all seem to have offers that just came in, but then weeks and months later they are still unsold. To smoke them out, I like to ask an unusual question to catch them off-guard, like “Yeah, how much?”. You can tell they are bluffing by how they react.
5. I have seen a couple of flips that were purchased a couple of years ago get relisted, and they don’t wear well. Because they are basically a lipstick job done with the cheaper materials, they look bad quickly. Flooring in particular was used up, and cabinet doors and drawers showed wear-and-tear, and were out of alignment.
6. With few new homes being built, flippers are enjoying a clean shot at the buyers who want/need a new look. Unfortunately there are very few new homes or flippers in the higher price ranges, making it more difficult to find a turn-key home. Buyers need to adapt, and get comfortable with buying a home that needs work.
7. I haven’t had an REO listing assigned to me this year, and like many former REO-listing agents, have been scrambling to secure organic listings. The new effort is still on-going, but so far 60% of my sales this year have been representing sellers.
8. Many are already anticipating next year, and it should be a wild one!
I agree given current conditions. I wonder how things would play out if Prop 13 were to be weakened.
They will nibble around the edges before they run little old ladies out to Reno.
Today’s house of the future.
Sold in august for $1.2m. Back on market for $1.7m. All they did was remove the horse stable.
http://hbs.venturacountyhomefinder.com/search/listing/1237-1000028117729?from=email&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=em&utm_campaign=la1
Somebody got 3-5% a few weeks ago and now somebody else wants another 4-6%. Wow.
A pessimist on CNBC?!? Must be a token guest to be ridiculed, because otherwise CNBC pumps everything relentlessly.
Can’t wait for my Padres world series tickets next year.
Come on 7% YOY!