by Jim the Realtor | Oct 21, 2013 | Forecasts, Sales and Price Check |
After the 2003-2004 frenzy that lasted about 18 months (sound familar?), the prices leveled off for the next couple of years – until the easy money could support it no more.
With (slightly) higher mortgage rates and lagging buyer enthusiasm both helping to temper the frenzy now, we will probably see a similar pricing plateau take place – and it’s already underway (click for larger image):
SAN DIEGO:
CARMEL VALLEY:
SE CARLSBAD:
Everything should stay orderly and on track, as long as nobody shouts ‘fire’.
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 21, 2013 | Fraud, Pocket Listings |
Realtors will put a twisted spin on any new gadget in order to justify hoarding commissions. In this article, one manager convinces himself that because he gets ‘300 emails a day and four actually apply’, it’s good to use a separate system that enables pocket listings:
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-lew-20131020,0,7268732.story
An excerpt:
That means agents no longer have to fool with emails selling Viagra, unwanted notices about office pools, and other non-work-related messages. That frees them up to spend more time listing houses, showing and selling properties, and attending closings. Agents found that the software allowed them to “preview” possible listings with their fellow agents and market them internally before they hit the open market.
That’s a form of so-called pocket listings, which are somewhat controversial in and of themselves.
With a pocket listing, a property for sale is held out of the local Multiple Listing Service while the seller’s agent shops it among his list of clients and friends. If the agent finds a buyer, he gets to keep the entire commission rather than share it with a buyer’s agent.
But while a house is in the agent’s pocket, so to speak, it is not exposed to the entire market, as it would be if it was on the MLS. And in theory at least, if the house was listed, the seller might have been able to secure a higher price.
Under the rules of most MLS systems, a property must be listed within 48 hours of receiving a signed listing agreement. So a true pocket listing is only a short-term ploy at best.
But the Yapmo software makes the process more efficient. Agents are able to automatically shop the property in-house directly to buyers and other agents who have expressed an interest in that kind of house, that price range or perhaps that area.
It isn’t intended to limit exposure to keep the deal in-house, Van Eck said. Rather, it is intended to maximize exposure during the “downtime” between when a listing is taken and the house is ready to show.
“Nothing in the MLS defines what people are looking for,” says Boehmig, the Atlanta broker. “But with this tool, a conversation can ensue while a house is getting ready to come on the market. Our agents can say, ‘I want to hear about that kind of stuff but not that kind of stuff.'”
Yapmo also works well for sellers who don’t know what their homes are worth, or for those who value their privacy and don’t want to tell the world that they are getting ready to put their properties on the market or what price they are asking.
“One of our agents just took a listing but was concerned about the price,” Boehmig says. “He was able to email other agents in the company saying, ‘Here’s what the seller is thinking. What do you think?’ And when the house actually came on the market, it was positioned properly to sell.”
They can dress it up all they want, but when they prominently mention that they have closed 275 pocket sales, you know their objective. Realtors won’t police themselves – sellers need to insist on their home being placed on the open market!
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 21, 2013 | Bubbleinfo TV, Inventory
No panic on behalf of sellers, and the rest of the year should go quietly:
The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
April 29 |
201 |
$384/sf |
36 |
2,599sf |
May 5 |
195 |
$381/sf |
36 |
2,633sf |
May 9 |
207 |
$387/sf |
35 |
2,624sf |
May 18 |
241 |
$397/sf |
33 |
2,566sf |
May 23 |
236 |
$397/sf |
34 |
2,529sf |
May 30 |
230 |
$391/sf |
35 |
2,591sf |
June 5 |
229 |
$393/sf |
35 |
2,577sf |
June 11 |
239 |
$390/sf |
34 |
2,569sf |
June 17 |
246 |
$389/sf |
36 |
2,577sf |
June 24 |
255 |
$397/sf |
36 |
2,535sf |
July 1 |
244 |
$401/sf |
38 |
2,526sf |
July 8 |
256 |
$398/sf |
38 |
2,530sf |
July 15 |
269 |
$403/sf |
38 |
2,486sf |
July 22 |
258 |
$401/sf |
39 |
2,442sf |
July 29 |
262 |
$386/sf |
39 |
2,493sf |
Aug 5 |
287 |
$393/sf |
38 |
2,495sf |
Aug 12 |
300 |
$391/sf |
40 |
2,521sf |
Aug 19 |
304 |
$395/sf |
41 |
2,491sf |
Aug 26 |
308 |
$392/sf |
41 |
2,469sf |
Sep 2 |
304 |
$395/sf |
41 |
2,453sf |
Sep 9 |
303 |
$402/sf |
40 |
2,453sf |
Sep 16 |
309 |
$395/sf |
39 |
2,463sf |
Sep 23 |
311 |
$398/sf |
40 |
2,431sf |
Sep 30 |
293 |
$398/sf |
42 |
2,448sf |
Oct 7 |
280 |
$394/sf |
43 |
2,451sf |
Oct 14 |
278 |
$398/sf |
43 |
2,432sf |
Oct 21 |
273 |
$402/sf |
47 |
2,428sf |
The OVER-$1,200,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
April 29 |
620 |
$806/sf |
94 |
5,183sf |
May 5 |
606 |
$806/sf |
93 |
5,223sf |
May 9 |
628 |
$808/sf |
93 |
5,150sf |
May 18 |
653 |
$807/sf |
92 |
5,161sf |
May 23 |
661 |
$814/sf |
92 |
5,141sf |
May 30 |
659 |
$805/sf |
95 |
5,222sf |
June 5 |
663 |
$794/sf |
96 |
5,185sf |
June 11 |
672 |
$779/sf |
96 |
5,163sf |
June 17 |
661 |
$787/sf |
99 |
5,164sf |
June 24 |
679 |
$791/sf |
98 |
5,097sf |
July 1 |
705 |
$785/sf |
94 |
5,084sf |
July 8 |
702 |
$779/sf |
95 |
5,100sf |
July 15 |
736 |
$776/sf |
94 |
5,038sf |
July 22 |
748 |
$782/sf |
96 |
5,043sf |
July 29 |
736 |
$782/sf |
100 |
5,057sf |
Aug 5 |
754 |
$765/sf |
100 |
5,024sf |
Aug 12 |
750 |
$767/sf |
102 |
5,032sf |
Aug 19 |
742 |
$769/sf |
104 |
5,009sf |
Aug 26 |
740 |
$781/sf |
106 |
4,962sf |
Sep 2 |
736 |
$773/sf |
107 |
4,928sf |
Sep 9 |
724 |
$781/sf |
108 |
5,006sf |
Sep 16 |
738 |
$773/sf |
107 |
4,993sf |
Sep 23 |
736 |
$776/sf |
109 |
4,953sf |
Sep 30 |
717 |
$765/sf |
111 |
4,954sf |
Oct 7 |
709 |
$769/sf |
111 |
4,960sf |
Oct 14 |
719 |
$780/sf |
111 |
4,965sf |
Oct 21 |
704 |
$781/sf |
111 |
4,976sf |
Pendings still happening:
Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
May 30 |
70 |
84 |
June 5 |
87 |
64 |
June 11 |
77 |
69 |
June 17 |
73 |
66 |
June 24 |
100 |
69 |
July 1 |
86 |
64 |
July 8 |
81 |
53 |
July 15 |
106 |
54 |
July 22 |
105 |
89 |
July 29 |
71 |
74 |
Aug 5 |
105 |
64 |
Aug 12 |
77 |
61 |
Aug 19 |
88 |
73 |
Aug 26 |
87 |
77 |
Sep 2 |
76 |
55 |
Sep 9 |
85 |
58 |
Sep 16 |
102 |
61 |
Sep 23 |
84 |
54 |
Sep 30 |
73 |
80 |
Oct 7 |
80 |
61 |
Oct 14 |
78 |
53 |
Oct 21 |
70 |
63 |
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 20, 2013 | Auctions, Bubbleinfo TV, Del Mar, Dirt Sales
A look at the estate under construction on the $4,400,000 lot on Balboa overlooking the best of Del Mar, plus other stuff, including a couple of 69s:
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 20, 2013 | Auctions, Interesting Houses |
Michael Jordan is sending to auction his Chicago 56,000 sf estate on 7 acres. Here is a look at it in the first 90 seconds:
(thanks to several people who sent this in!)
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 19, 2013 | Jim's Take on the Market |
Yesterday we saw that sellers – who said, “we can always come down later” – are getting more realistic, with the percentage of price reductions doubling over the last six months.
Others will be less optimistic, and give up altogether:
NSDCC Expired/Cancelled/Withdrawn Listings, Sept. 1 – Oct. 15:
2011 – 421
2012 – 237
2013 – 317 (+34% YoY)
There isn’t a problem with the demand – this change is purely because sellers kept pushing their list prices higher and higher. Mr. Market finally said, “Enough” in many areas, and for many product-types.
Expect more price reductions from the motivated sellers, and more cancellations from the market-testers, as we find equilibrium.
What will buyers do?
Most buyers will check out, and wait until next year. There are distractions like school, football, holidays, Dodgers going to the…oh never mind. Primarily, buyers are exhausted from having to be so patient while sellers experiment with finding a lucky sale.
Should everyone check out? No, and here’s why:
1. The market still appears healthy. My best indicator is comparing the new listings vs pending listings each day – it has been a steady 1:1 ratio this month. During the peak-frenzy days, there were more listings going pending than coming to market, but typically a ratio of 2:1 is healthy.
2. Mortgage rates are down. Around 4.25% for conforming and jumbo.
3. The best deals are around the fringes. Buyers will come running for decked-out Carmel Valley tract houses that list for the same price as the last sale. On the other hand, the fixers, inferior locations, marginal school districts, etc. could over-correct if desperate sellers out-number the motivated buyers.
Sellers – Don’t panic, and use the other active listings in the area to your advantage, price-wise. You can sell today for 15% to 20% more than 18 months ago, and if that’s enough to get you where you want to be, you should get it done now. But if it isn’t working out, cancel in the next 30 days so you can come back fresh in February.
Buyers – Stay in the hunt, get good help, and get more comfortable with fixers. If you want a good primer on fixing stuff, and people who can help, you can start with reading the 53 articles and videos here: https://www.bubbleinfo.com/category/vendors/
I heard this in my first month in the business:
Sellers – Sell when everyone else isn’t.
Buyers – Buy when everyone else isn’t.
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 18, 2013 | Jim's Take on the Market |
For those who sense a changing market, here is some evidence to support your case – from Zillow (click for full image):
You can probably figure some seasonality into the ‘Listings with Price Cut’, but as the frenzy started building you can see how the need for sellers to lower their price diminished.
Now the percentage has doubled in the last 6 months:
Or could more sellers be reading bubbleinfo.com?
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 18, 2013 | Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links, Why You Should List With Jim |
The political circus got kicked down the road a couple of months, and weather will be great for another week – it’s a perfect time to sell your house!
But you’ve already been on the market for a few months, and no luck. You experienced a big rush in the beginning, but now it’s down to a trickle. You think – if someone would just make an offer…..
What can sellers do to get their home sold in the next 30 days?
Start with putting yourself in the buyers’ shoes, and examine your online presence – is it compelling? Are there quality photos and video? Does the listing make you want to go see the house?
Then look at how your price compares with others for sale in the neighborhood. If there are two or more competing homes for sale, and nobody is selling, then a breakout is needed. Lower your price to be the cheapest of the bunch, or the cheapest $/sf – and make the gap big enough that it is obvious to buyers that you are the best deal.
Nothing works as well as lowering your price. But there are other things you can do to help the cause – complete as many of these items as possible:
Jim’s A La Carte List:
- Lower the price by at least 5%
- Add/improve photos.
- Produce a new video tour.
- Pay Buyer’s closing costs – specify the amount.
- Offer to Buydown the mortgage rate (1% or 1.5% sounds good).
- Rent back your home after closing for a premium rate.
- Offer a quick or flexible close date.
- Vacate home to make it look better and increase showings.
- Re-examine the usefulness of range pricing (drop it).
- Install lockbox and make it obvious on listing.
- No restrictions on showings – show anytime.
- Paint and carpet – and spend some real money!
- Clean the carpet.
- Improve the curb appeal.
- Get neighbor’s dog to stop barking.
- Get rid of the smell.
- Include recent sales in your listing to prove your price.
- Mention the specific schools.
- Pay a Full Commission to Buyer’s Agent (3% or more)
- Pay a Bonus to the Agents.
- Hire a professional salesperson.
Whatever you can do to provide more ease and transparency will help. Buyers are moving quickly, and your first impression needs to grab them!
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 17, 2013 | Bubbleinfo TV, One-Story |
Just because a house is one-story doesn’t mean that the disabled have an easy time of it. Homes that are truly fit for a wheelchair are very hard to find – this is one of the best I’ve seen, because it is fairly subtle too:
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 17, 2013 | Sales and Price Check
The market has been red hot, and overdue for a breather. It is still cooking around NSDCC, judging by the big hike in average pricing, but the number of sales dropped 21% from the previous month.
Here are the September sales and pricing for NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
Month |
# of Sales |
Avg $/sf |
Avg Sales Price |
Sept. 2012 |
289 |
$373/sf |
$1,005,919 |
Aug. 2013 |
324 |
$437/sf |
$1,188,031 |
Sept. 2013 |
257 |
$467/sf |
$1,441,952 |
The overall numbers look great. The DQ report for the Southland:
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2013/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA131016.aspx
An excerpt:
The typical monthly mortgage payment Southland buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,547, down from $1,555 the month before and up from $1,144 a year earlier.
Adjusted for inflation, last month’s typical payment was 35.5 percent below the typical payment in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 47.2 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.