Will the frenzy continue? NSDCC sales have had an inverted relationship with the inventory. When plenty of homes are coming to market, buyers are picky and sales are slower. As inventory got tighter, sales increased.
In particular, look at March, 2012 – it was the peak month for new listings last year, and as supply dropped during the critical April-June selling season, sales took off:
The amount of inventory plays a vital role, and is a leading indicator.
It would appear that the intensity of the frenzy this year will be determined by how many new listings come to market between April and June.
How are we doing so far?
NSDCC New Listings:
| Year | 1stQtr | April 1-15 |
| 2009 | ||
| 2010 | ||
| 2011 | ||
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 |
No wonder last year ended up so hot – new listings in 1Q12 came out lower than previous years, and never got rolling.
This year we got off to a similar start, helping to stoke the frenzy further.
But new listings are rolling now.
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Here are the 98 new NSDCC listings that hit the market between April 1-15 between $700,000 and $1,200,000 (the MLS only allows 100 flags at a time). The 38 in yellow are already pending:
good data
so 2012 had 1270 listings in nsdcc. any idea of the total housing stock in that area? What percentage do you think the 1270 represents of the total homes built in that area?
Do you happen to have a map of the nsdcc on the website anywhere so we know the area u r talkn about?
NSDCC map added (La Jolla to Carlsbad).
The population is around 300,000, and I think there are 100,000 housing units counting condos and apartments. I’ll check for a detached-home count.
Would you be able to juxtapose a relevant price indicator in the same graph? TIA
I don’t have a counter, but how about an opinion?
The minute buyers sense that the frenzy is dying off, prices will immediately flatten.
They are willing to pay what the last guy paid, but that’s it. And it sounds fair to me.
Jim, I think you are talking about the trees and not the forest…bull markets typically don’t end in a mattter of months in real estate? Excess Inventory will affect near term days on the market?…It feels like there is enough momentum and pent up demand to sustain at least 12-24 more months if not more. But each leg of the bull market would see some flattening. Looking at action in stock market, expect more rounds of QE, pushing rates even lower and increasing more demand. Fed has clearly shown they feel they can jump start economy via real estate since every other program has been a mediocre success.
Looking at fundamentals buy vs rent looks like a no brainer. Get to live in it, get the tax right off, and ride the appreciation bubble for the next couple of years not to mention lending is loosening.
I see little to no threat in this market stalling.
Yes, you are reading me correctly.
I am speaking about a very specific micro-market where there is price resistance, and you are talking about “the market”.