Around Carmel Valley, 92130 it looks like we regained the ground lost over the last couple of years, and buyers are back to paying $340/sf.

On the MLS, there are 72 active listings, and their median list price is $1,422,999 – with only 18 houses for sale under $1,000,000!

The median list price of the detached homes sold over the last 90 days is $922,000, with 64 of 111 sales under $1,000,000.

The lower-end is cooking, yet seller enthusiasm is causing more and more to push into the higher ranges in hopes of striking it rich:


Buyers were probably resigned to paying a little more – will they break out of the range and follow sellers up the ladder?

It happened like that in 2003, and we saw 20% appreciation in one year.  It could happen again, and if it does, you’ll see it in the prime areas!

Other areas:


SE Carlsbad sellers caught on a little later, but are on the same path – and the Encinitas graph was very similar to this too:


It means that buyers will either have to step up further, or we’ll be experiencing the Big Glut over the next few weeks.

Rancho Santa Fe knows the feeling – they always have a glut of homes for sale. In 92067 there are 203 homes for sale today, with an average market time of 131 days, and there were 13 homes sold in the last 30 days:


Will all areas end up looking like Rancho?  Yes, it is very likely that sellers will price too high and not adjust, thuinking that the selling season is coming later to bail them out.  They are already way ahead of buyers, and only the premium properties have a chance of selling for retail-plus.

Statistically it will look like 10% to 20% appreciation of the few homes selling!

Redfin allows use of their graphs.

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