MB Mike asked a follow-up:

In terms of timing, what does your crystal ball say 2014 will bring? Better to wait a year to sell?

Yes, wait if general market conditions are your guide.

Real estate is reported as ‘up’ or ‘down’, and it will be ‘up’ for a while.

The media loves real estate, and will be following it closely in order to sensationalize every bump and wiggle.  The more good news that buyers see and hear, the higher their anxiety, and the more they will pay to end the struggle.

The current frenzy conditions feel exactly like they did in the 2003 run-up.  Here’s the Case-Shiller Index (seasonally-adjusted):

Case Shiller San Diego

I think we will experience the same trajectory as we did in 2003, and maybe faster if inventory grows at the perfect rate – which is more inventory please, but not too much. 😆

There are going to be pocket areas/markets that show 10%-20% appreciation in the first half of 2013.

They are the lower-priced segments of premium areas – homes under $900,000 in Carmel Valley, the $600,000-$700,000 market in Rancho Penasquitos, and the under-$700,000 market in Carlsbad are examples.

Yet, you can go to Rancho Santa Fe’s $3,000,000+ market and find 119 active listings – and four have closed in the last 30 days.

When to sell is relative to your location, price range, and what you are selling.  Here are the Three Amigos discussing it:

Let’s also note that you won’t see the bad news coming that could derail your quest for the extra pop, because bad news always sneaks up on you.  Examples:

1.  Flash flood of competing sellers nearby.

2.  A sudden increase in mortgage rates caused by market forces, which the Fed can’t control.

3.  Realtor fraud, creating a low comp or two.

4.  Natural disasters – earthquakes, etc.

5.  Man-made disasters – nuclear war by the North Koreans, etc.

Any of those reasons would cause buyers to quit chasing the pricing stampede, and get back on the sidelines to watch and wait for prices to go down.  Many people, mostly the W-2 employees, have already been priced out of the areas they thought they could afford, and are left searching for alternatives; which amount to inferior neighborhoods, hitting the lotto, or waiting.

Don’t rely solely on what you see here at Bubbleinfo.com.  We specialize in selling superior products in premium areas, and the examples seen here are the cream of the crop.  Generally the demand is very deep currently, but it will dry up in the more-standard areas first.

Get good help!

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