A warm thank you to the 179 people who have participated in the survey so far!
Many have commented that the videos are worthy, and it would be beneficial if they were easier to watch (HD, no mumbling, slow down, more captions, etc.). Several have noted that more detail on local neighborhoods would be appreciated too. A full summary to follow!
When it comes to the price ranges covered here….we’re working the middle to high-end markets (above $500,000), so the concentration will be there, but I’ll try to cover the best available stories for the blog. The lower-ends of each market do vary; in Carmel Valley the lower-end of the price range is under $800,000, which sounds ridiculous to most Americans.
But it has been getting slightly more “reasonable” in CV. This year, there have already been 34 detached sales under $700,000, while in 2011 there were only 79 closed for the whole year:
JtR,
How do you reconcile this listing with Rockrose which is a brand new development? At Rockrose, 625k will get you 3000 sq ft with all the modern amenities, but with high HOA, Mello-Roos, and very little yard. Is the premium with this listing only due to the lot size? This house doesn’t need any major work, but it does need work.
Here’s an idea – you can judge the list price by how many offers they have after four days.
One offer? Full retail.
Rockrose?
The fees are $333/month, and I think there is palatable resistance to the higher fees and small backyards.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3510-Glen-Ave-92010/home/22650645
But sales are low enough that it is hard to make general assumptions. If one buyer picks up Frost around mid-$600,000s, it doesn’t prove anything other than one guy thought it was worth it.
It’s when there are 5-10 offers that it gets interesting.
Eight offers? In CV it’s a reflection of pent-up demand on the lower end and/or dry inventory.
Mercurio in Carmel Valley isn’t a giveaway at $749,900, the last two sales of that floor plan are $765,000 and $728,000:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4579-Mercurio-St-92130/home/4512860
Eight offers means that it will end up over list price, but it will take 100s of those to prove that prices are rising.
I don’t want to assume that the price was too low, because the demand is so laser-specific that if Mercurio was $799,000 they might not have had a visitor.
The only takeaway is that pricing a home to sell is imperative today, and those that do might get lucky and cause a bidding war, driving the price up.
I’ve always had a negative opinion of HOAs in general. Having to pay so much is a major turn-off for me. I’ve seen what can happen when HOAs are taken over by zealots.
Jim, the video’s are great. The one where they had ventilation for marijuana was hilarious.
699k is low end these days? Are all the real affordable homes in Snn Diego county out east of san diego off highway 8?
Seems pretty pricey on either side of 5 north and 15 north.
what is going on south of san diego towards the border?
A couple of things I forgot to comment on in the survey:
1. More video time on way to listings, etc. of great So Cal cars and trucks, especially with HOT So Cal women passengers. Blondes are Extra Credit.
2. Full road test coverage of jtr Heavy Chevy. Where has The Beast been hiding? Does San Diego have a Mulholland Drive – Type test course? You’re always welcome to come North and Run Hwy 1 with the Big Dogs…
lol !
Have a Safe Day! More senseless murders up here in Nor Cal yesterday.
Be Careful out there :-).
ps: Congrats to you and Tom on Sputnik ! Terrific!
Jim, your remark on pricing is spot on. $10k difference in my market can make the difference between a fast sale and no sale on homes in the $400k-$600k price tier. That’s the low/mid range for Sebastopol.
Thanks, JtR for you response. Your response is precisely why people like myself frequent your website on a regular basis because there is so much nuance and just “below the surface” information when it comes to gauging the real estate market. Front line reporting is the key!
$10k difference in my market can make the difference between a fast sale and no sale on homes in the $400k-$600k price tier.
That level of price sensitivity is incredible, since the difference in payments is ~$70.
TJ #9: I don’t think the sensitivity is due in any way to how much different the monthlies are. I think it’s all about people wanting to feel like they got a good deal (even if the difference is minimal). Because if you didn’t get a good deal in this market, there must really be something wrong with you… At least, I think that’s what is going on subconsciously.