I made this statement at the end of 2010:
The average cost-per-sf for detached sales in SD County rose 9% in 2010. I think it’ll increase another 9% in 2011, fueled by the red-hot lower price ranges. But sales will struggle, possibly 20% fewer sales overall, because buyers will want to hold out for the best. The bar is rising on what buyers are willing to tolerate, but they’ll spend the money on a top-quality house.
I’m not sure where I got the 9% YOY increase in 2010, because looking at the detached MLS stats below, the average cost-per-sf change between 2009 and 2010 was only +7.4%.
The year-over-year change in the average cost-per-sf between 2010 and 2011 went DOWN 4.5%, not up. Maybe that had something to do with the 2011 sales actually increasing slightly over 2010.
|SD County Det.||2007||2008||2009||2010||2011||YOY %chg|
|Total listings, year||46,056||42,567||34,241||37,226||35,737|
|Total closings, year||15,713||19,103||22,577||21,036||21,082|
Our focus is on selling detached homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
How did North San Diego County Coastal do?
|NSDCC Det.||2007||2008||2009||2010||2011||YOY %chg|
|Total listings, year||5,406||5,289||5,045||5,286||5,205|
|Total closings, year||2,479||2,037||2,222||2,460||2,525|
Changes of 1% or 2% can be considered noise, and they reflect that the NSDCC market has been flat for the last two years. Sales are holding their own, thanks to the low rates and just enough decent listings.
What is JtR’s prediction for 2012 around NSDCC?
There were 188 REO listings and 275 short-sales closed in 2011, or about 18% of the overall sales. Short-sellers should abound, due to the expiration of the tax exemption on debt relief at the end of the year, because if it is extended it probably won’t happen until the last minute. There will probably be commotion around the election and politics, but it won’t stop buyers from grabbing the deals.
My 2012 guess: NSDCC detached sales +10%, and their avg. cost-per-sf drops 5% from 2011.
What is your prediction?