From the latimes.com:
It’s the silver lining of falling home prices: With low interest rates and cheaper housing, the percentage of Californians who could afford to buy a home increased in the third quarter, a real estate group said. The portion of households that could afford a home priced at the statewide median of $292,120 rose to 52%, up from 51% in the previous quarter, according to an index released Thursday by the California Assn. of Realtors.
Beth L. Peerce, president of the group, said that one problem potential home buyers could face is tight credit. Many first-time buyers don’t qualify for a loan, she said.
Some analysts have noted that banks have tightened their loan criteria since the housing crash. But it was those loose lending standards that caused the real estate bubble in the first place, so many other analysts argue that more carefully scrutinizing borrowers is appropriate.
The federal government has been providing enormous support to the mortgage market through loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, although it has recently taken steps to scale back that support.
In California, potential buyers needed to earn at least $61,530 a year per household to afford a home at the third quarter’s median price, the Realtors group said. The median is the point at which half the homes in the state sold for more and half sold for less.
The real estate group calculated the monthly payment for a mortgage on such a home to be $1,540, including taxes and insurance, and assuming a 20% down payment and a 4.63% interest rate.
(Note: The San Diego index was 42% for 3Q11, the lowest since 1998. In 2005 it was 9%!)
The UC cops are out-of-line here, beating female students with billyclubs in Berkeley:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buovLQ9qyWQ
How likely is it that someone grossing $60k has $50k saved up for a downpayment?
CAR should re-run those numbers for 3.5% dp, 28% front end dti, and include the mortgage insurance.
What is the real US inflation rate at the moment? I ask in terms of food,petrol and home parts and labour.
JTR – they are not out of line. They just pushed people back who wouldn’t obey the order to move back. Rodney king was beat with clubs, not here.
When I was raised I was taught that when a cop told you to move, just shut up and move.
Once these folks moved back the cops just kept them there. Only when they moved forward did they jab them to ‘encourage’ them to move back.
Occupy people need to just go home and do something productive!
I disagree – the cops were unprovoked, and the youtube shows defenseless females getting jabbed repeatedly.
That’s how you rile up a whole nation of occupiers.
My grandfather was district attorney there in the 1960s, the last time the Cal students acted up. He had them arrested – that’s what you do when people are breaking the law, not beat them on camera when they are just standing there.
When the jails are full, then tent-city them.
“When I was raised I was taught that when a cop told you to move, just shut up and move.”
Forget that.
When I was raised, I was taught that policeman were in uniform to assist the public and were respected for their devotion to duty, RULE OF LAW and tendency to treat the public with respect and dignity. They were, for lack of a better term, ‘the good guys’.
Not today. Police have become tools for politicians and revenue collectors for their juristictions, common thugs to never trusted, punks merely counting the days until their outrageous pensions can be taken. The BAD GUYS.
Truly, in the case of the Berkeley brown shirt squad, a disgrace to their uniform, in my opinion.
In the case of the Marine shot in the face with a rubber projectile for NO LEGAL reason, a felonious assault?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196618
and
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196582
and
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196740
Where are the arrests? (thanks to Karl Denninger-Ticker Guy).
These ‘professionals’ should do well to remember what the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson opined:
“Today’s PIG is tomorrows BACON”
PUNISH THE GUILTY. NO MERCY.
Professionalism of today’s police is in question. Just a note that there is a decided hierarchy of police forces. Locally, the ranking goes:
Berkeley PD > UC Berkeley PD >> Oakland PD
Surprisingly, you don’t get what you pay for, with OPD being among the highest paid. Berkeley PD issued a disclaimer to distance themselves from the behavior on campus. It is precisely in these tense situation when police training and leadership matters most.
I give those kids in the video credit, they did not back down to those coward cops.
That’s the first time I’ve disagreed with you Clearfund. Jim is right – it’s disgraceful – beating college kids with the clubs!. What if your son/daughter were in the group? We’ve grown soft – just taking the BS dished out by banks, government and powerful lobby groups. These kids have the right idea. If we don’t wake up, we’re looking at the 2nd Roman Empire. Sad state of affairs.
Here in NoCal, a man shot his wife, mother, father and himself. Both man and wife had lost good paying, professional jobs and were losing their home to foreclosure today. They lost the last amount of hope that they had. And the number of people underwater reached 14 million. All deadbeats? I don’t think so. At or coming to a neighborhood like yours.
Not having seen what had let-up to that point in the video, I agree that it seems way out of line to use them to use clubs. That being said, it is also out of line to antagonize authority and expect that type of reaction should you choose to-right or wrong! If I run from a police officer trying to pull me over–I may get shot–right or wrong, end of story. I as well was brought up to cooperate with authority and this is definitley not entirely the police’s fault.
Local, were you also brought up to hit girls with a belly club? Look at the video how would that first line of kids move back? They were being pushed from behind and had no place to go, and most were girls. The good thing is there are fewer and fewer people like you allowing this behavior to continue.
The cops and everyone in authority needs to be an example for the world to see – because today your behavior is seen around the world in minutes.
These cops were probably just trying to teach these rabble-rousers a lesson for a day, but this video could cause more revolt around the country. Did they think about that? I doubt they did, but they should.
Same with realtors who think they aren’t hurting anybody by closing their fraudulent short-sales, are wrong – people are watching. The entire realtor community could be affected – if the banks get tired of the fraud and throw us all to the curb, it will be a sad day for the good agents.
Its those Penn state kids that should be beat with billy clubs – don’t they know they are promoting child molesting?
Back on topic, recall when mortgages hit 12% in about 1980. 9% was so 1978 (I paid 9.5% with 20% down in 1978). That was when assumptions were big, with seconds to pay for the appreciation. One question have the banks banned assumptions in current mortgages? It is IMHO a piece of the cause of the S&L crisis that mortgages could be assumed.
Let me answer my own question, today it appears that most mortgages have due on sale clauses, because the congress passed a law in 1982 to make due on sale clauses enforceable.
Given these clauses, in conjunction with how often people move, the question is how many mortgages actually make it to the mythical 30 years?
Bought my first house in Serra Mesa 1982. Interest rate 16%.
Low price though ($85,000)
@Andrewa
That is one of my pet peeves, the government never publishes the REAL inflation rate, and if the basket of goods they are using at the time paints too bleak a picture, they change the contents of the basket. Volker changed it in 1980:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209/Inflation_Actually_Near_10_Using_Older_Measure
and some people say we should be using CPI-U
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
But to answer your question (you sure you want to know?) it’s about 27% over the past 12 months:
http://escapetyranny.com/2011/02/15/inflation-anyone-check-out-the-12-month-price-increases-on-this-commodity-price-index/
Re: mortgage rates. We built our first home (1,248 sf) in Hawaii in 1988. We bought the lot for $50K and the house cost us $70K to build. Locked in @ 10 1/2 % (next day rates hit 11%).
My favorite memory is painting the outside of the house together. We gave our toddler a little bucket filled with water and a tiny paintbrush and told him he got to cover everything under 3 feet.
We sold the house 4 years later for $245K. Ah, the power of sweat equity…
The last time students really “acted up” on Berkeley, the Alameda County Sheriff’s deputies (the Blue Meanies) were called in on a mutual aid pact, one demonstrater was shot and killed, and another lost an eye. The National Guard was brought in and camped out in the park across the street from the high school while keeping order. Trust me, there is nothing more sobering than having the military occupy your city, sleeping with loaded guns across the street from your classrooms. It’s an order of magnitude different than being jabbed by a nightstick in a scuffle in a crowd.
Jim’s grandfather was involved in the political upheavals of the time because of his position, but with regard to the demonstrators, he did not “have them arrested.” The various police agencies on the street made that decision. He and his assistants were tasked with the legal follow-up to the arrests.
I remember Grandpa Klinge from the newspapers and the local TV news of the day. He and his team prosecuted a lot of high profile, politically sensitive cases. He is most probably the genetic source of Jim’s tenaciousness.
I bought my first home with a builder buy-down at 11 3/4 percent. Sold it five years later for over twice what I paid. The new house went up well over three times what I paid before the market crashed. It’s now refinanced for the LAST time in the low 4’s. And it’s nowhere near any place that has ever been occupied by our own military.
Kent State again?
@Lyle
Uh… I think the “9%” was referring to 9% affordability metric, not 9% interest rates.
I paid 9% interest rates in 1999. They were quite recent.
Chuck
Cops can do whatever they want, whenever they want, to whoever they want.
A lazy cop, an inept cop, or a corrupt cop can turn a regular law abiding citizen’s (who pays their salary) life into a living hell with a snap of a finger.
And god forbid a cop be fired or lose their pension because they are union.
When is the last time you’ve heard a good cop publically speak out against a bad cop?
Too bad foxnews didn’t go after the police when they went after the teachers’ and other public employees’ unions.
I paid 9% interest rates in 1999. They were quite recent.
… not to mention closer to the median historical rate at that. Look out for the “mean” reversion!
I am very concerned about what “tools” we are allowing the police to use.
http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktla-downey-police-shooting,0,3667028.story
Do we really want them armed with machine guns? Not me.
My grandfather:
http://www.edwrinkle.com/wsp/coakleybio.htm
There probably have been other incidents since, but the one in particular that my grandfather was involved with, from wiki (note the direct connection from Reagan to Meese, one of my grandfather’s best friends, and how Meese took over – guess who he called for advice):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Park_(Berkeley)
During its first three weeks, People’s Park was used by both university students and local residents, and local Telegraph Avenue merchants voiced their appreciation for the community’s efforts to improve the neighborhood.[10][11] Objections to the expropriation of university property tended to be mild, even among school administrators.
Governor Ronald Reagan had been publicly critical of university administrators for tolerating student demonstrations at the Berkeley campus, and he had received enormous popular support for his 1966 gubernatorial campaign promise to crack down on what was perceived as the generally lax attitude at California’s public universities. Reagan called the Berkeley campus “a haven for communist sympathizers, protesters and sex deviants.”[12] Reagan considered the creation of the park a direct leftist challenge to the property rights of the university, and he found in it an opportunity to fulfill his campaign promise.
Governor Reagan overrode Chancellor Heyns’ May 6 promise that nothing would be done without warning, and on Thursday, 15 May 1969 at 4:30 a.m., he sent 300 California Highway Patrol and Berkeley police officers into People’s Park. The officers cleared an 8-block area around the park while a large section of what had been planted was destroyed and an 8-foot (2.4 m) tall perimeter chain-link wire fence was installed to keep people out and to prevent the planting of more trees, grass, flowers and shrubs.
Beginning at noon, about 3,000 people appeared in Sproul Plaza at nearby U.C. Berkeley for a rally, the original purpose of which was to discuss the Arab-Israeli conflict. Several people spoke, then Michael Lerner ceded the Free Speech platform to ASUC Student Body President Dan Siegel because students were concerned about the fencing-off and destruction of the park. Siegel said later that he never intended to precipitate a riot; however when he shouted “Let’s take the park!,”[13] police turned off the sound system.[14] This angered some people, and the crowd responded spontaneously, moving down Telegraph Avenue toward People’s Park chanting “We want the park!”[15]
Arriving in the early afternoon, the protesters were met by the remaining 159 Berkeley and university police officers assigned to guard the fenced-off park site. The protesters opened a fire hydrant, the officers fired tear gas canisters, some protesters attempted to tear down the fence, and bottles, rocks, and bricks[16] were thrown. A major confrontation ensued between police and the crowd. Initial attempts by the police to disperse the protesters were not successful, so more officers were called in from surrounding cities. At least one car was set on fire.[16]
Reagan’s Chief of Staff, Edwin Meese III, a former district attorney from Alameda County, had established a reputation for firm opposition to those protesting the Vietnam War at the Oakland Induction Center and elsewhere. Meese assumed responsibility for the governmental response to the People’s Park protest, and he called in the Alameda County Sheriff’s deputies, which brought the total police presence to 791 officers from various jurisdictions.[12] Under Meese’s direction, the police were permitted to use whatever methods they chose against the crowds, which had swelled to approximately 6,000 people. Officers in full riot gear (helmets, shields and gas masks) obscured their badges to avoid being identified and headed into the crowds with nightsticks swinging .”[17]
Alameda County Sheriff’s deputies used shotguns to fire “00” buckshot at people sitting on the roof at the Telegraph Repertory Cinema, fatally wounding student James Rector and permanently blinding carpenter Alan Blanchard. The University of California Police Department (UCPD) claims Rector threw steel rebar down onto the police, however according to Time Magazine, Rector was a bystander, not a protester.[18] As the protesters retreated, the Alameda County Sheriff’s deputies pursued them several blocks down Telegraph Avenue as far as Willard Junior High School at Derby Street, firing tear gas canisters and “00” buckshot into their backs as they fled.
At least 128 Berkeley residents were admitted to local hospitals for head trauma, shotgun wounds, and other serious injuries inflicted by police. The actual number of seriously wounded was likely much higher, because many of the injured did not seek treatment at local hospitals to avoid being arrested.[19] Many more protesters and bystanders were treated for minor injuries. Local hospital logs show that 19 police officers or Alameda County Sheriff’s deputies were treated for minor injuries; none were hospitalized.[20] However, the UCPD claims that 111 police officers were injured, including one who was knifed in the chest.[16]
The authorities initially claimed that only birdshot had been used as shotgun ammunition. When physicians provided “00” pellets removed from the wounded as evidence that buckshot had been used,[21] Sheriff Frank Madigan of Alameda County justified the use of shotguns loaded with lethal buckshot by stating “… the choice was essentially this: to use shotguns — because we didn’t have the available manpower — or retreat and abandon the City of Berkeley to the mob.”[17] Sheriff Madigan did admit, however, that some of his deputies (many of whom were Vietnam War veterans) had been overly aggressive in their pursuit of the protesters, “as though they were Viet Cong.”[22][23]
Governor Reagan declared a state of emergency in Berkeley and sent in 2,700 National Guard troops —. [12] The Berkeley City Council symbolically voted 8–1 against the decision[20][22]. For two weeks the streets of Berkeley were patrolled by National Guardsmen who broke up even small demonstrations with teargas. [17] On Wednesday, 21 May 1969, a midday memorial was held for student James Rector at Sproul Plaza on the university campus. with several thousand people attending. During the People’s Park incident, National Guard troops were stationed in front of Berkeley’s empty lots to prevent protesters from planting flowers, shrubs, or trees. Young hippie women taunted and teased the troops, on one occasion handing out marijuana-laced brownies and lemonade spiked with LSD.[18] Some protesters, their faces hidden with scarves, challenged police and National Guard troops. Hundreds were arrested, and Berkeley citizens who found it necessary to venture out during curfew hours risked police harassment and beatings. Berkeley city police officers were discovered to be parking several blocks away from the Annex park, removing their badges/identification and donning grotesque Halloween type masks (ironically including pig faces) to attack citizens they found in the park annex..”[17]
Flower Children vs.The Establishment; these differing perspectives mirrored widespread 1960s societal tensions that tended to flow along generational lines regarding the war in Vietnam, race relations, sexual customs, women’s rights, traditional modes of authority, experimentation with psychedelic drugs and opposing interpretations of the American Dream.[24]
In a university referendum held soon after, the U.C. Berkeley students themselves voted 12,719 to 2,175 in favor of keeping the park.[18]
On 30 May 1969, 30,000 Berkeley citizens (out of a population of 100,000) secured a Berkeley city permit and marched without incident past barricaded People’s Park to protest Governor Reagan’s occupation of their city, the death of James Rector, the blinding of Alan Blanchard and the many injuries inflicted by police.[25] Young girls slid flowers down the muzzles of bayoneted National Guard rifles,[20] and a small airplane flew over the city trailing a banner that read, “Let A Thousand Parks Bloom.”[25][26]
In an address before the California Council of Growers on 7 April 1970, almost a year after “Bloody Thursday” and the death of James Rector, Governor Reagan defended his decision to use the California National Guard to quell Berkeley protests: “If it takes a bloodbath, let’s get it over with. No more appeasement.”[27] Just a few weeks later, on 4 May 1970, the Ohio National Guard fired on protestors at Kent State University, killing four students and seriously wounding nine.
(in my grandfather’s autobiography he noted that James Rector “after surgery at a hospital, died two days later from hemorrahage and shock – possibly as a result of the surgery”)
http://www.amazon.com/People-Sixty-Years-Fighting-Order/dp/0963046608/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1321118893&sr=1-1
He did not condone the police beating of protestors, but notes in his book that freeodom-of-speech protests around Berkeley had been numerous – there were 208 demonstrations between 1964 and 1967. Quote:
“The performance of the Berkeley Police Department and of David Dutton and his staff in the Berkeley-Albany branch of the District Attorney’s Office, under the most difficult conditions, was also a superb example of professionalism in law enforcement.”
“By and large, a lesson to be learned as a result of the experience in Alameda County is that, when efficiently and firmly handled by well-trained officers who know their business and when followed by successful prosecution, violent collective protest can eventually be controlled.”
The leftist version in wiki doesn’t elaborate on the out-of-control nature of the People’s Park incident, other than to say there were 6,000 protestors vs. 791 police officers. It was a miracle that the situation didn’t escalate into something much worse, and it had to do with the local response.
If building inflation really IS 27% that makes real estate with a low mortgage one of the best long term investments you can make (providing you can maintain the monthly payments).
I also suspect that if a couple of the students dressed up as muslims the police would be less keen to hit them (in case they set of an improvised explosive device)
Desmo–If you take a moment to re-read my earlier post, I am NOT condoning the police’s use of clubs. Again, that being said, AND not having seen what let up to that point in the video, there is a chance that those on the front line should have known that they may have been in danger and should have moved back and/or disassembled (right or wrong). Take a moment and say is yourself “this is going to get ugly, better move out, right or wrong.” Even if someone does not have respect for authority, one must take precaution to protect themselves in situations involving the police and not simply continue to antagonize just because you are right.
(providing you can maintain the monthly payments)
Aye, there’s the rub.
Historically speaking, in most instances of very high inflation people could NOT make the mortgage or the rent because they could barely afford consumables. All real estate suffered as a result.
The truly rich got richer, because they could afford to both carry existing properties at a loss as well as buy more from weaker hands at bargain basement prices.
If you’re not independently wealthy — i.e., can go without income for years — it’s not a world you want to live in.
The moment any cop covers their badge should be the end of the discussion
the only question is do you fire just the supervisors, or the whole force for condoning it.
Our old friend Dan Siegel from the People’s Park days is still around and supporting the Occupy Oakland folks (who were evicted from the Ogawa Plaza “campground” this morning).
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/14/BAGA1LURQ7.DTL&tsp=1
Gotta love the “legal advisor to Mayor Jean Quan” bit….