From HW:
The U.S. housing market hit bottom this year and will remain flat until 2014, when it will start to slowly recover, said Rick Sharga, an executive vice president with Carrington Mortgage Holdings.
“We’re looking at a catfish recovery,” he told attendees at the Asian Real Estate Association of America conference in San Francisco Friday, saying the market will bump along the bottom for some time before starting to revive.
More than a million foreclosure actions that should have taken place this year have not yet moved forward, and that delay pushes a resolution of the housing market’s problems into next year and beyond, he said, citing data from RealtyTrac, where Sharga served as a senior vice president until this week.
“We can’t expect to see home price appreciation until we work through these distressed assets,” he said.
Since 2005, there’s only been one quarter in which U.S. banks have sold more properties than they’ve taken back through foreclosure, leaving a huge overhang of real estate-owned assets that need to be cleared out.
Banks hold about 800,000 REOs, and three-quarters of those are not listed for sale, said Sharga. Another 800,000 homes are in foreclosure and 1.5 million loans are delinquent.
This “shadow inventory” will slow down a housing market recovery, he said, as monthly foreclosure numbers will remain elevated through 2012 and REO inventories will stay high through 2013.
Even with the continuing distress in the housing market, the country is not likely to enter a double-dip recession, said Eugenio Aleman, a director and senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co .
Although U.S. workers have suffered as the nation has lost 9 million jobs over a two-year period, the manufacturing and service sectors are expanding, he noted.
“The rest of the economy is not booming, but it’s doing fine,” said Aleman. Wells Fargo is projecting that the U.S. economy will expand over the next few years, but at anemic rates: 1.6% this year, 1.4% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013.
“We are standing firm,” said Aleman of Wells Fargo’s economic forecast. “We are not going to go into a recession.”
“We are not going to go into a recession.”
That’s great news for the 14 plus million unemployed nation wide and the 20% plus in CA who are un/under employed.
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/02/altos-predicts-a-catfish-recovery-for-housing-market
Sambucci calls it a “catfish recovery.”
“Think of the behavior of a catfish,” Sambucci said. “It will be a bottom-dweller, then it comes to the surface for a while and then heads back down. It’s bouncing around. It doesn’t have a clear pattern or distinct trend. It’s important to understand that moving forward, if you understand volatility, there are possibilities to make money on these inflection points.”
Bouncing catfish. Oookaaay…
I guess WFB can say that the economy is doing the catfish too, statistically, but agreed, just because it’s not getting worse doesn’t mean it got better for those impacted.
Rich Toscano’s latest graphs on the Case-Shiller:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/toscano/article_093e71da-ed38-11e0-a772-001cc4c002e0.html
“This second graph shows that aggregate San Diego prices were nearly at new inflation-adjusted lows, and that the mid-priced and especially the high-priced index tiers had already reached new inflation-adjusted lows earlier this year.”
“The U.S. housing market hit bottom this year and will remain flat until 2014, when it will start to slowly recover, said Rick Sharga”
Amazing! This guy actually gets paid to say stuff like this.
Well at least the MSM has moved on from double dip. Now we’re on to the bouncing along the bottom talk, probably means we’re headed lower soon. If the media/experts are talking bouncing along the bottom we’ll probably get something closer to double dip.
Good news for all of us bottom feeders!
It’s far too late to talk about a double dip. We had a weak, jobless recovery for the last couple of years since the recession ended in June, 2009. Whatever happens now is a new event.
Jim,
If you had a license in CT…we probably would have hired you! I would have lobbied for it!
Here’s the listing:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/59-Sunswyck-Rd-Darien-CT-06820/57286683_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-bubble-address}
It’s the Ranch Santa Fe covenant area of Connecticut. Primo.
I’m sure my parents would love to have you sell our house there. I’m sad we’re selling it and actually hoping it doesn’t sell so we can use it as a vacation home.
Although I know our RE agent is great, you could get it sold quickly….which I don’t really want.
It’s a great house in a fantastic location…and a great home for you to sell! Note the pink bathrooms!
haha.
“Even with the continuing distress in the housing market, the country is not likely to enter a double-dip recession, said Eugenio Aleman, a director and senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co”
– Heard this multiple times in 2004-2006 from Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. They also said there was no housing bubble.
“The rest of the economy is not booming, but it’s doing fine,” said Aleman.
– Over 20% unemployed and over 44 million people on food stamps… they’re doing just fine.
“We are not going to go into a recession.”
– We never got out of the 1st one.
I do not know what world this guy is living in. The stock market continues to bleed red… BAC is on the verge of collapse… Iconic US companies are failing left and right… Many citizens in large US cities are protesting in the streets. Everything is just fine and dandy.
If the experts at Well Fargo say so,,, then it must be true. Right?
I think the fact that they have the b*lls to actually even predict a year is ridiculous.
I guess they know or knew when people were going to start working again and making large purchases.
Good grief.
I am not suggesting we are or are not in a recession but keep in mind unemployment amongst college graduates is 4.8 %. This recession is fairly specific to particular demographics. I am a recruiter, a very busy one at that, and I can attest it is tough to find fabulous college educated talent in the field in which I recruit.
The overall economy today is not good, but it’s not as bad as I expected it would be as we were nearing the elections in 2008. Back then we were losing 750,000 jobs a month, and now we’re either gaining a small amount or stuck at zero, depending on which source you prefer. I didn’t think we’d see even this for at least another year or two.
If you look at charts of past recessions, it usually takes two years of recovery for every year of job loss, so 2014 would be just about right for the recovery from a three year downward slide in jobs. But Sharga is talking about recovery in the home market, and doesn’t that usually lag job recovery?