I was out today, but we should cover the San Diego Case-Shiller Index, which dropped for the first time in 15 months.
Isn’t that to be expected? The changes over the last few months have been very small – January’s reading was a scant +0.1% – and we’ve been expecting it to bump up and down for the foreseeable future.
A few years back, Rob Dawg said that because of the extraordinary nature of this collapse, we should question all of our theories and assumptions from now on.
My first thought was that if prices did continue going down, it would be great for sales – more buyers would be interested in getting a lower-priced deal.
But as we’ve seen, without more of the better-priced foreclosed properties, we’re left with just retail, or retail-plus offerings (sellers with big equity/lo mo, flippers, and needs-based pricing).
If prices went down, sales could get worse, not better. A downward pricing trend, interest rates, qualifying, etc. – none of those matters if nobody wants to sell for what the market will bear.
Sales are looking a little soft too – here are the San Diego County detached numbers from the MLS:
April, 2010: 1,886, $248/sf
March, 2011: 1,845, $234/sf
April, 2011: 1,250, $246/sf
The rest of the week will see more closings (there were 319 that closed over the last three business days of March, 2011) but it’ll take a big push to catch last month. If it keeps going this way (downward trend for pricing and sales) then the media will want to believe that there is no demand – when it’s far from that now, at least around NSDCC.
The seller, who just got his license and is working on his first sale, did some smart things, like install a moderate line of Frigidaire stainless appliances to help disguise his original kitchen that needs a full renovation. There are plenty of windows and light, and the yard has been tastefully arranged.
But with only 2,258sf built in 1948 and just a peek ocean view from the upstairs master only, the $1,074,000 list price still sounded optimistic……and he got a full price offer on Easter Sunday!
We need more foreclosures just to add something to inventory!
Falling home prices should give aspiring homeowners the upper hand this spring, but in a growing number of locations, it doesn’t feel like a buyer’s market.
Blame the nearly five-year slide of home prices. Those declines, which accelerated over the past two quarters, have left many sellers unable or unwilling to lower their prices. Meanwhile, buyers remain gun shy about agreeing to any purchase without getting a deep discount.
That dynamic has fueled buyers’ appetites for bank-owned foreclosures. Those homes often hit the market at bargain prices, but they are being snapped up by investors who are paying in cash.
At a focus group earlier this month, the mood among buyers was “nasty,” says Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin Corp., a Seattle-based brokerage that operates in nine states. “There’s a shortage of attractive inventory,” he says. “Customers just keep getting outbid on the houses that they want.”
It took Susan Hunter just one month to unload her home in Redondo Beach, Calif., last fall. But she has been outbid on four homes at a lower price point in Eagle Rock, an emerging neighborhood in northeast Los Angeles. Some sold to investors who paid cash. Other listings, she says, are being resold by investors at prices that she says are too high.
“It’s the Wild West out here. It’s a daily, tireless search,” says Ms. Hunter, who works in television production and marketing. Demand is up because “we haven’t been able to find homes here below $500,000 since the 1990s.”
Taylor Morrison, a housing developer based in Arizona, was set to break ground on a 304-unit condominium development in Sunnyvale, near San Jose, when the bottom fell out of the housing market in 2007.
The company went back to the drawing board, and last month it gained approval for a drastically different plan: a town house project aimed at extended families, where children, parents and grandparents can all live comfortably under one roof.
Such multigenerational housing is specifically aimed at the booming immigrant population in the Bay Area, and is emerging as one of the few growth niches in a moribund housing market.
“If you’re selling in certain areas of the Bay Area, you have to be more extended-family-oriented,” said Cheryl O’Conner, government affairs consultant to the Building Industry Association of the Bay Area.
Asian buyers, in particular, “come with the whole family,” Ms. O’Conner said. “They come with their parents and grandparents, uncles, aunts and cousins.”
Even when several generations are not living together permanently, more and more families are looking for housing alternatives that can readily accommodate extended visits from overseas relatives.
Census figures released last month show the Bay Area’s Hispanic and Asian populations each increased by more than 350,000 over the past decade, while the region’s non-Hispanic white population declined. Those groups are about twice as likely as whites to live in multigenerational households, according to a 2010 study by the Pew Hispanic Center.
In 2008, an estimated 49 million Americans lived in a house that included at least two adult generations or a grandparent and at least one other generation, the study showed. In 1980, that figure was just 28 million.
“Immigrants are a source of growing demand, and their household composition is different in fundamental ways from the domestic-born,” said Kermit Baker, a senior fellow at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard and the chief economist of the American Institute of Architects.
Some borrowers can’t keep up with their mortgage payments because they’re struggling to make ends meet.
Others choose not to keep up even though they can afford their monthly payments, and a new picture is emerging about who these borrowers are and why they walk away.
A growing body of research shows that these so-called “strategic defaulters” defy the tell-tale characteristics of most people whose loans go bad. They pay their bills on time, rarely exceed their credit-card limits and hardly use retail credit cards, according to a study released Thursday.
And they plan ahead.
They know their credit scores will take a hit after they fall behind on their mortgages, so they tend to open new credit cards in advance of defaulting, according to Thursday’s study, conducted by FICO, the firm that created the nation’s most widely used credit scoring system.
“These are savvy people who organize themselves,” said Andrew Jennings, FICO’s chief analytics officer. “This is a planned activity, not an impulse activity.”
This relatively new type of behavior is the latest sign of just how profoundly the mortgage crisis has reshaped consumer attitudes toward their homes and their finances. It is largely driven by plunging home values, which have left nearly a quarter of the nation’s homeowners underwater, or owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
So some do the math and walk.
A team of researchers estimated that 35 percent of defaults in September may have been strategic, up from 26 percent in March 2009. But they acknowledge in a report published last month that the numbers are tough to tease out because “strategic defaulters have all the incentive to disguise themselves as people who cannot afford to pay,” according to the report by researchers from the European University Institute, Northwestern University and the University of Chicago.
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!