Wouldn’t you think that local home sales should be sputtering right about now? Mortgage rates have sky-rocketed, relatively (now around 5%), and come on, it’s the holidays – there can’t be anyone buying homes, can there?

Plus, with the homebuyer tax credit having inflated sales during the end of 2009, and the first half of 2010 (allegedly), the year-over-year counts should look bleak for the next few months.

But out on the street, the battle continues.

Here are the North San Diego County Coastal detached closings between November 14th and December 14th; the lower amounts mean wilder percentage swings, so apply your grain-of-salt, plus there will be a few late-reporters to add to this year’s tallies.

Note how Carlsbad and Encinitas look solid, especially in the Actives/Solds-last-30-days category, and both La Jolla and RSF are hanging tough:

Town or Area Zip Code ’09 sales ’10 sales ’09 $/sf ’10 $/sf ACT #/ppsf A/S
Cardiff 92007
11
3
$483 $480 42/$534 14.0
N. Carlsbad 08+10
23
26
$265 $274 112/$453 4.30
SE Carlsbad 92009
31
37
$254 $256 161/$272 4.35
SW Carlsbad 92011
20
13
$283 $287 75/$340 5.77
Del Mar 92014
17
9
$561 $888 140/$1,070 15.55
Encinitas 92024
30
27
$350 $537 141/$456 5.22
La Jolla 92037
22
19
$661 $553 214/$958 11.26
RSF 67+91
12
16
$442 $419 234/$688 14.63
Solana Bch 92075
4
8
$621 $580 39/$788 4.88
Carmel Vly 92130
41
29
$339 $329 167/$372 5.76
Total Above
211
187
$385 $404 1,324/$616 7.30

The number of sales measures the quantity of sellers who were willing to sell for the price the market would bear. When sales go down, people (MSM) are quick to assume that something is wrong with demand.

But just look at the difference in cost-per-sf between Actives and Solds: $616/sf to $404/sf!

I think the lower sales count describes the increasing difficulty with buying a home today, especially the right home, at the right price. You want to think that home prices would be soft, and nary a buyer around the holidays.

In the last week, I’ve seen four different houses that had multiple offers on them!

In mid-December! 

The demand is healthy, yet very specific – if a house misses on quality or price, it sits.  But the sellers, and the listing agents, want to think they are close just because they see a few people come by. But who knows? It’s only when there are offers that sellers know they must be close on price. Buyers know they’ve found a good buy when there are multiple offers, so rejoice!

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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