At 7am this morning the NAR existing-home sales data for July is due out, and everyone expects a bloodbath. Pundits will be guaranteeing the double dip, and calling for home prices to plunge throughout the land. There will also be remarks about how the tax credit pulled demand forward.
The NAR number is measuring the national drop in sales between June and July, but everyone has been saying for weeks how the tax credit was responsible, so how much does today’s number really mean?
To get a better read on the local market action – and to smooth out the noise – let’s compare the year-over-year change in the number of detached and attached sales, and avg. cost per sf for the two-month, June/July period in each area:
| Area-Zip Code | 2009# | 2010# | diff | 2009$ | 2010$ | diff |
| Cardiff | +53% | $463 | $440 | -5% | ||
| C-bad 008 | -17% | $286 | $316 | +10% | ||
| C-bad 009 | +27% | $253 | $258 | +2% | ||
| C-bad 010 | -26% | $239 | $252 | +5% | ||
| C-bad 011 | +8% | $287 | $295 | +3% | ||
| Del Mar | -11% | $610 | $506 | -17% | ||
| Encinitas | -22% | $344 | $350 | +2% | ||
| La Jolla | -12% | $527 | $548 | +4% | ||
| RSF 92067 | +207% | $467 | $417 | -11% | ||
| Solana Bch | -8% | $491 | $443 | -10% | ||
| RSF 92091 | -44% | $383 | $392 | +2% | ||
| PB/MB | -5% | $442 | $461 | +4% | ||
| West RB | +26% | $255 | $261 | +2% | ||
| RB 92128 | +2% | $256 | $259 | +1% | ||
| RP 92129 | -1% | $249 | $265 | +6% | ||
| CV 92130 | -4% | $340 | $346 | +2% | ||
| Scripps Rch | +2% | $266 | $270 | +2% | ||
| Above total | 1,276 | 1,312 | +3% | $329 | $330 | flat |
| All SD | 6,563 | 5,963 | -9% | $228 | $244 | +7% |
The sky might not be falling just yet, especially in North SD County Coastal, where the Y-O-Y numbers look pretty similar. There is only two areas, Del Mar and Solana Beach, where both sales and pricing were negative, Y-O-Y. But hopefully the sellers are just gleaning the headlines today!
Here’s the Bloomberg video on the downtown SD condo market, focusing on the Mark. Sounds more like an ad for the guy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iybWBDby88
Nice Stats Jim. The Solana Beach price results look fishy–should that read -10%???
Thanks for posting the stats. Always good to see this information. I think your row for Solana Beach might have something wrong tho? Should it be -10% or should the $2010 be 543?
Oops – looks like Local Boy already caught that
Fixed it
~Breaking News~ 8/24 – 12:25pm EDT re: plunging home sales:
Full article: http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/24/real_estate/existing_home_sales/index.htm
“Existing home sales sank 27.2% in July, twice as much as analysts expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units. Much of that drop is attributed to the end of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit.”
Well it was a bloodbath but Calculated Risk had a post from Tom Lawyer that basically nailed it yesterday 3.8-3.9 million SAAR.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/lawler-existing-home-sales-consensus-vs.html
North County Coastal does seem to be bucking the trend for now, but remember that market was lagging when things first started heating up in early 2009. I think that YoY is going to continue to get worst in August, Sept, Oct as those were better than normal last year because of the original tax credit.
any Oceanside data?
If you look at the down trend from the height of ’05, today’s number is in line with the overall trend. The spikes are all the result government stimulus, tax credits, etc.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/existing-home-sales-july-2010.html
Thanks for the stats, no real surprises here. I wouldn’t expect North County to track national that closely whether up or down.
The biggest spike in housing is always greed. The mountain of 05 makes all other interventions combined look like nothing. Human nature, won’t change for a million years. We’ll be bubbling asteroids and barren moons in no time.