At 7am this morning the NAR existing-home sales data for July is due out, and everyone expects a bloodbath.  Pundits will be guaranteeing the double dip, and calling for home prices to plunge throughout the land. There will also be remarks about how the tax credit pulled demand forward.

The NAR number is measuring the national drop in sales between June and July, but everyone has been saying for weeks how the tax credit was responsible, so how much does today’s number really mean?

To get a better read on the local market action – and to smooth out the noise – let’s compare the year-over-year change in the number of detached and attached sales, and avg. cost per sf for the two-month, June/July period in each area:

Area-Zip Code 2009# 2010# diff 2009$ 2010$ diff
Cardiff
15
23
+53% $463 $440 -5%
C-bad 008
42
35
-17% $286 $316 +10%
C-bad 009
124
158
+27% $253 $258 +2%
C-bad 010
43
32
-26% $239 $252 +5%
C-bad 011
59
64
+8% $287 $295 +3%
Del Mar
28
25
-11% $610 $506 -17%
Encinitas
110
86
-22% $344 $350 +2%
La Jolla
111
98
-12% $527 $548 +4%
RSF 92067
15
46
+207% $467 $417 -11%
Solana Bch
36
33
-8% $491 $443 -10%
RSF 92091
9
5
-44% $383 $392 +2%
PB/MB
84
80
-5% $442 $461 +4%
West RB
108
136
+26% $255 $261 +2%
RB 92128
169
173
+2% $256 $259 +1%
RP 92129
98
96
-1% $249 $265 +6%
CV 92130
126
121
-4% $340 $346 +2%
Scripps Rch
99
101
+2% $266 $270 +2%
Above total 1,276 1,312 +3% $329 $330 flat
All SD 6,563 5,963 -9% $228 $244 +7%

The sky might not be falling just yet, especially in North SD County Coastal, where the Y-O-Y numbers look pretty similar. There is only two areas, Del Mar and Solana Beach, where both sales and pricing were negative, Y-O-Y. But hopefully the sellers are just gleaning the headlines today!

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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