Here is the inventory trend of detached and attached active listings in San Diego County, with the counts taken in the middle of each month. Look at how the inventory was flying off the shelf in Spring, 2009, and has been relatively low since…well, at least until a couple of months ago.
The recent spike means the current list-price exuberance is a lot of hot air. There hasn’t been a rush to lower list prices yet, but sellers, it’s mid-July – it’s about time!
Hat tip to Schahrzad for her help with the numbers.
in my area of coastal OC, SFRs bought after credits have been closing below listings. the things that were bought with credits were being bid up. most recent home I saw was a 10% haircut from the list (and the list wasnt outrageous).
Government delay tactics and cheese can make for a confused market.
Meanwhile in the under-450k range that I’m getting email updates on, I’m seeing more prices being revised *up* than being lowered… If there’s a return to last fall’s list prices on the way, I’m not seeing signs of it yet…
Thanks for the chart. It really helps put the numbers into perspective.
It is hard to tell what a “normal” inventory should be for a county of 3 million. The 2004/5 range is likely too low, and the 2007/8 is way too high for normal. I would say maybe 10K would be a “normal” inventory. Even a 30 year statistic probably wouldn’t tell the story because of rapid population growth since 1980. Normal in say the mid-west would not be a normal figure here, but perhaps there are some national “normals”??
Good year for who?
Mark,
Agreed, there is no more normal, just individual warfare at each property – mostly between seller and his ego.
Genius,
I think it was a good year for those buyers willing to be patient and dig for deals. The recent seller enthusiasm shows how quick they are to ignore reality and over-price.
During the latest year-long stretch it was probably 5 out of 10 new listings that were wildly over-priced, now it’s 9 out of 10.
Speaking of digging for digging for deals, I’ve been watching the RSF stuff for a few months and this one popped up yesterday:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100042416-8268_Top_O_The_Morning_Way_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067
While I would love for the homes in RSF to drop to $208/sf, I’m thinking that this one might be put in the ‘somethings not right’ bin.
Out of curiosity, if a realtor writes a deal that is a bit on the unscrupulous side, is there any recourse against the buyer who purchases the home, or can they just play dumb?
I have heard that a 4-6 months supply of active inventory is a relatively normal–take the closings of the last 4 to 6 months, add them up and compare them to total active listings. If inventory is 3 months of sales, then it is a seller’s market. If is is say 9 or 12 months, then it is a buyer’s market. Does that sound right?
The FHA is still making bad, near-zero-down loans and CR points out that they are going delinquent at an alarming rate. That will be inventory some day, depending on how long the FHA wants to give people free rent.
FHA is the new subprime.
Yeah, essentially zero DP government-backed home purchases are still ripping thru the system – propping up markets is a tricky, dangerous biz.
“While I would love for the homes in RSF to drop to $208/sf, I’m thinking that this one might be put in the ’somethings not right’ bin.”
The only thing ‘not right’ with this deal is the listing agent. It’s a short sale with an unrealistic price tag. The lender must approve the price and probably won’t be willing to take an $800k loss.