Any house west of the I-5 freeway in our prime North SD County Coastal region, priced within range of Fannie/Freddie/FHA financing, is likely to find a large audience. Here’s an example:
The first minute of this video was taken yesterday during our usual broker open house session on Wednesday mornings, and the remainder was shot today.
A variety of data packages get dropped in my lap from time to time, an excerpt from the latest:
The remains of the former Barratt American tract in Carlsbad has closed escrow. Bank of America had foreclosed on their $7,812,000 mortgage in December, 2008, and they put the whole package of six houses and five lots on the market in May, 2009.
Click here for our first and second youtube tours from last year.
Although the salespeople said in May that the bank was adamant about a quick close, it took until now to wrap things up.
Here is our next, but probably not last, segment in the Saga of Magnolia Estates:
Thanks to Mark for sending along this confirmation of first-time home buyers being able to claim both the federal and state tax credits, from the WSJ:
But, it might not get off to a peaceful start on May 1: Get ready for a stampede early on as some buyers rush to overlap with the federal tax credit that’s dangling as much as $8,000 to buyers. (Yes, that’s up to $18,000 for buying a house.)
For the federal incentive, contracts must be inked by April 30, while closings have to happen by June 30. The California credit covers closings on existing or new homes on or after May 1, leaving a short window for double dipping. “We already anticipated increased contract activity in March and April due to the federal tax credit with scheduled closings in May and June,” writes Credit Suisse builder analyst Dan Oppenheim. “These buyers will now be eligible for both the federal and state credit and will likely consume a significant piece of the state credit given the first-come, first-serve allocation.”
He estimates the tax credit will benefit about 14,000 new-home buyers, lasting as long as five months. KB Home and Lennar could benefit the most given “their outsized exposure to California at 44% and 25% of ’09 revenues, respectively, vs. the 20% group average.”
Given that the state’s existing sales dwarf new sales – 2009 saw an average of 42,500 closings per month – that allotment should be snapped up in about a month. Stampede, indeed.
Eric at the North County Times was asking last week about the direction of pricing. I was the last to be interviewed that day, and it sounded like all the other realtors thought we’d see a slightly upward trend from now on.
He was taken aback when I disagreed, and went with the slightly downward trend. Why? Rampant realtor fraud and deceit will undermine any momentum.
Not saying anything is wrong here, I’m open to a logical explanation of how this video ended, after six sales from $950,000 to $1,200,000 between June and January – can you think of one?
(editor’s note – I inputted this before noon and forgot to press send!)
Bank of America’s announcement (link here):
Bank of America will on Wednesday announce plans to start forgiving mortgage loan principal for troubled homeowners who owe more than 120 percent of their home’s value or are battling ever-expanding “negative amortization” loans.
They’re going to knock off the neg-am portions that they have no hope of ever getting anyway? Not much of a concession or benefit there for anyone.
Osidebuyer asked about the under-$500,000 market, how hot is it? Here are the SD County detached stats from the MLS for January 1 to March 23 (TNL = Total New Listings):
| Under $500K | 2009 | 2010 | diff |
| TNL | 5,352 | 5,215 | -3% |
| LP $/sf | $192/sf | $217/sf | +13% |
| Sales | 3,367 | 2,589 | -23% |
| $$/sf | $186/sf | $205/sf | +10% |
| SP/LP | 99% | 100% | -0- |
| DOM | 61 | 59 | -0- |
While it looks smoking hot to have 2,589 sales averaging 100% of list price, sales are down substantially, even though the number of new listings were about the same as last year. As soon as pricing tries to advance, sales slow.
How about the action over $500,000?
| Over $500K | 2009 | 2010 | diff |
| TNL # | 3,243 | 3,574 | +10% |
| LP $/sf | $436/sf | $438/sf | -0- |
| Sales | 848 | 1,101 | +30% |
| $$/sf | $325/sf | $320/sf | -2% |
| SP:LP | 95% | 97% | -0- |
| DOM | 74 | 73 | -0- |
The higher-end sales have picked up with pricing staying relatively flat – but new listings seem to be pouring on the market. Keep your eyes on the OPTs – they don’t seem to be moving, and if they don’t sell in the next 30-60 days, they’re going to be cooked.
First Arnie signs in $200 million more free cheese, now this. Although when I receive unsolicited emails I never know for sure how to verify them, so I’ll call this a rumor – but very believeable:
Jim,
I was just at a conference in NY and they said that the Treasury knows the HAMP program was not working because they were requiring homeowners to sign statements to document their income and no one wanted to do that. The Govt is going to stop requiring that additional documentation of income, and the expectation is that the numbers of mortgages being modified under HAMP will go up significantly.
From the latimes.com
Sacramento — After weeks of bickering over how to cut the deficit-ridden budget, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers agreed Monday to trim $1.1 billion from mass transit but give new tax breaks to home buyers and green-technology companies.
The linchpin of the legislation is the tax credit of up to $10,000 for first-time home buyers and those purchasing newly built homes. It would take effect May 1. Lawmakers are setting aside $200 million to pay for it. Buyers can receive 5% of a home purchase price back as a state tax credit, up to $10,000, as long they reside there for two years.
A similar program that passed last year was wildly popular. Buyers snatched up all $100 million in available credits within months.
From Business Week:
In January, the governor proposed a $200 million tax credit that would allow first-time California homebuyers to claim up to $10,000 for new and existing homes. An earlier tax break capped the credit at $100 million only for those who bought new homes between March 1, 2009, and March 1, 2010.
The extension would apply to homes purchased between May 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2010.
Sen. Roy Ashburn, R-Bakersfield, who carried the homebuyer’s tax credit bill in the Senate, said there is no question last year’s program created jobs. “At a time when California’s economy needs a real jolt to get moving … this bill will make a difference,” Ashburn said.
Here is the link to the FTB to apply – they haven’t enacted the new form yet though:
This is the second half of the ‘luz tour, covering the western side.
At the end of the video there is mention of a flipper who just paid $1,430,500 at the trustee sale on January 13th, and then closed escrow with the new buyer on February 26th for $2,175,000 cash. If you’d like to see photos of it, click here:
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CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
