How is the 2010 market comparing with previous starts?

North SD County Coastal Detached Homes (from Carlsbad to La Jolla), during Jan. 1-11:

Year Total Listed LP $/sf Closings SP $/sf
2002
174
$366/sf
66
$252/sf
2003
227
$416/sf
59
$319/sf
2004
121
$527/sf
61
$385/sf
2005
154
$530/sf
61
$498/sf
2006
268
$560/sf
52
$511/sf
2007
217
$543/sf
61
$522/sf
2008
187
$465/sf
28
$481/sf
2009
155
$545/sf
30
$387/sf
2010
164
$553/sf
27
$339/sf

The lower number of listings is contributing to the constricted-inventory conditions, and the average list-price-per-sf is reflecting exuberance on behalf of the early listers – we’ll see how they do.

The very-low number of closings makes it look like things fell apart towards the end of 2009, but was there a big rally to close before year-end?

North SD County Coastal Detached, DECEMBER:

Year Dec. Closings SP $/sf DOM
2002
316
$332/sf
59
2003
323
$370/sf
54
2004
242
$488/sf
62
2005
206
$469/sf
69
2006
238
$477/sf
72
2007
140
$441/sf
76
2008
132
$392/sf
72
2009
235
$403/sf
86

Yep, there was a push to close at the end of 2009 – the industry is starved for transactions.

Over 2009 it looks like we just stumbled along in North SD County Coastal region, in spite of being 18% off peak pricing. Here are the yearly totals:

North SD County Coastal Detached, YEAR

Year Total # of Closings SP $/sf DOM
2002
3,717
$303/sf
56
2003
3,932
$346/sf
53
2004
3,363
$446/sf
46
2005
3,014
$479/sf
55
2006
2,626
$481/sf
66
2007
2,481
$468/sf
67
2008
2,036
$438/sf
70
2009
2,215
$394/sf
76

If there were more well-priced properties, we could sell twice as many homes. Back in the day, everything was selling, even the crappy deals. Today the buyers are much more discerning, and if the price ain’t right, no sale.

author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

Pin It on Pinterest