Tobias suggested that we compare the foreclosure counts (NOD, NOTS, & REO of SFRs and condos only) to the number of homes to see the relative impact. The home counts come from city-data. Also included here are the number of active listings of detached and attached, and the number of those sold in May, 2009:
| Town or area | F/C Notices | # of Homes | % in default | ACT/Sold in May | Mo. of Inv. |
| Del Mar | 32 | 6,714 | 0.48% | 188/19 | 10 |
| La Jolla | 169 | 19,529 | 0.87% | 478/38 | 13 |
| Encinitas | 189 | 19,138 | 0.99% | 240/35 | 7 |
| Solana Bch | 61 | 6,072 | 1.00% | 144/10 | 14 |
| RSF | 49 | 3,517 | 1.39% | 366/15 | 24 |
| Carlsbad | 552 | 33,717 | 1.64% | 503/124 | 4 |
| Carmel Vly | 195 | 11,304 | 1.73% | 267/44 | 6 |
| Oceanside | 1,691 | 59,498 | 2.84% | 563/226 | 2 |
We can say that over 10% of Rancho Santa Fe is for sale!
If over 10% of the houses in a city are for sale, prices HAVE to fall at some point, and by a lot.
Not only that, but the inventory is clearly dwarfing turnover.
When is the infamous shadow inventory going to hit? I personally think it’s foolish to buy right now with that as a strong possibility.
We can say that over 10% of Rancho Santa Fe is for sale!
That’s better than 99% of Detroit for sale.
Thanks, Jim. Do you also have the data for San Marcos? I am very interetsted in that area, especially 92078/SEH.
It’s not surprising Carmel Valley is #2 on the list. I know three people who bought there using ARMs and it ain’t pretty. CV’s really divided into west and east halves, with the west side being >95% condominium bid up heavily during the bubble. Low or negative equity, lots of ARMs and toxic loans. The east side’s mostly million and up and tends to have a lot more equity and staying power.
What I saw happening over and over were people buying in the west half thinking values in the east half would pull them up. In reality, there are two CV’s, just like UTC.
XFZ,
92078 may suffer from somewhat dated stats on city-data?
Houses and condos: 2,850
Foreclosure notices: 353
% in default: 8.07%
ACT/May solds: 184/47
Months of Inv: 4
Twice as many in some stage of foreclosure as are listed active in MLS, like Oceanside’s 3x.
What surprises me is that with this high a level of inventory, there are still so few listings that fit the parameters I entered for our home search when we moved down here two years ago…
Well in order for prices to come down significantly, there first needs to be an oversupply. In some zips that appears to be the case, but time will tell because what counts is who must sell vs. who wants to buy.
I wonder how many of those Oceanside purchases are owner occupied vs. investor?
If you consider all of those houses that are REO or have NOD or NOT as part of the inventory of houses, it changes some of the numbers around a lot. Oceanside’s months of inventory shoots up to 10 months.
Town / Total Inventory / Months of Total Inv. / Inventory %
Del Mar / 220 / 11.6 / 3.28%
La Jolla / 647 / 17.0 / 3.31%
Encinitas / 429 / 12.3 / 2.24%
Solana Bch / 205 / 20.5 / 3.38%
RSF / 415 / 27.7 / 11.80%
Carlsbad / 1055 / 8.5 / 3.13%
Carmel Vly / 462 / 10.5 / 4.09%
Oceanside / 2254 / 10.0 / 3.79%
We can say that over 10% of Rancho Santa Fe is for sale!
That’s better than 99% of Detroit for sale.
The nicest house in RSF is probably worth more than all the houses in Detroit! 🙂
There are actually some nice old mansions in Detroit. Remember, prior to the 1960’s, it was a booming town.
Of course, if you buy one, you’d have to live in Detroit…
And Detroit just lost the Stanley Cup. Talk about getting kicked when you are down 😀
…don’t forget the Lions and their stellar ’08 season.