Pardee continues their march through Pacific Highlands Ranch in Carmel Valley, with the new tract called Manzanita Trail. In a curious move to fit the market, they have combined the types of housing they’ve built next door.
The Plans 1 and 2 are the smaller models (2,362sf and 2,596sf) that have no back yard (garages off the alley) and zero lot lines, where your only outdoor experience is a side yard looking at your neighbor’s stucco wall.
The Plans 3 and 4 are 2,789sf and 3,056sf models, and have the more traditional skinny sideyards and backyards that look to be about 30 feet deep.
These will be popular just because of the lack of decent inventory in the area under $1,000,000, and with the builder dripping them out little by little, they should be able to sell them. Here’s the youtube review:
Â
Those floor plans priced very well but buyers need to be aware of the hidden cost like HOA & MR. I was shocked that plan 3 MR is $336 and plan 4 is $389. There are two HOAs for the first 28 homes, West Highlands at $89 and Sierra Highlands at $96.00, for a total of $185. The monthly cost on top of mortgage and non-tax deductible for plan 3 & 4 is $533 and $574 respectively.
For $500+ a month on top of mortgage, I rather buy a more expensive place with lower MR & HOA.
housing start bottom?
Carmel Valley is turning into Harlem.
Once upon a time, Harlem was thriving just like Manhattan, and then it kept getting sub-divided and sub-divided into smaller and smaller units.
CV will be to La Jolla/Del Mar/RSF what Harlem is to Manhattan today.
If you think the CV schools (esp. Junior High) are over-crowded now, just wait a couple more years.
I rent very near there, drive by it every day. It’s a depressing neighborhood. Through the camera this neighborhood could easily be mistaken for San Marcos/Temecula/Victorville. Good for Pardee for selling these things, though – there’s a sucker born every minute (or 5 of them maybe.) No lot lines, no yard, no privacy? No problem! It shows how badly people want to live here; if it falls in their price range, they’ll take it. CV is a great location, but a world of glorified detached townhomes surrounded by almost no commerce.
Interesting comments about the schools, FW. Ironically, I think that’s what attracts most buyers here – particularly the high concentration of Asian buyers in the area, who culturally place a very high premium on education. But will the schools still be as good in 10 years?
Futures–I don’t agree with that speculation at all–Find better semi-coastal area closer to Downtown San Diego that is a better alternative to CV???
More layoffs in the timber industry.Pretty soon we will import all of our wood because we don’t want to cut a tree.Instead we can watch it all burn and have the state piss away more money they don’t have.
http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/1829508.html
I think my CV home-owning co-workers that they sell while they can. Unfortunately, especially among this Asian scientist community, there’s an engrained “Carmel Valley is different” attitude.
Despite the drug-filled, overcrowded disaster that TPHS is becoming, some of my colleagues are even trying to buy into the CV area for its “good schools” and “short commute.”
Anyone take a 7AM weekday commute South on the 5 lately? CV residents spend more time driving to the nearest source of eggs and milk than I do getting to work.
CV is different, alright.
Wow, this like watching a housing bubble form. The cure for a bubble crash caused by cheap credit is apparently more cheap credit. Why do I feel like this can’t end well?
I’m no fan of tract home sameness but I think the zero lot line is a good move. Not everyone wants a big yard to maintain, (or water). And, if there is a nearby park then why not?
The fact that the typical 5′ sideyard is a near total waste and becomes useful in these plans because it gets to 10′ wide, is in my opinion, a good move. Plus getting the cars to the back is a good 1920’s style of planning.
I also noticed the plans don’t have windows on one side which will give privacy to the adjacent neighbor’s outdoor space.
If they could put some stores & schools that are a walkable distance they’d have a decent place to live.
And, how crazy is it that there is the kind of demand they are getting?
Get in before you’re priced out forever… Better hurry!!!
I almost fell out of my chair laughing. ‘Better for your budget’ – what high density housing in a concrete jungle? ‘Better for your family’ – keep up with the Joneses mentality? This is a perfect example of conventional wisdom. Spending your time in traffic is the last thing I want to do.
Geez, people don’t have short memories, they have no memories whatsoever. This is a vivid example of what Wall Street refers to as “stupid money”.
Alas, these fools and their money will be soon parted.
I’d bet that you could lurk around the sales office and hear every bubble cliche of the last 8 years.
Hmmm. Mans-insane-ita is more like it.
I just don’t get it. Where are these people getting the money?
Just goes to show ya, some of them will never get any smarter. This is what makes these bailouts tick me off so much. Is this the next batch that will expect a handout?
So where is the Manzanita anyway? The Del Mar variety is heading toward extinction. Just like us folks who were taught to live within our means. Sigh……..
Buying “on the pinks” is less reliable than “the check is in the mail.”
There is a bull market somewhere.
Jim mentioned that 2800 sqft is asking in the low $800k.
meanwhile, 10 minutes in at 4S Maybecks 2800 sqft floorplans by William Lyons are going for $600k.
same master planned type communities
equal caliber schools
slightly hotter in the summer
but over $200k difference?
It is difficult to understand how some folks with professional degrees and masters and phds can’t seem to understand that the same house simply does not command over $200k in difference just because it is 10 minutes closer to the coast and because of the CV label.
Let’s also note that the price sheet they are handing out says “Low-$800,000s”, not a specific price. By the time they’re done with you, you’ll be pushing $900,000 with lot premium and upgrades.
And you better like it, because if you don’t, there’s a waiting list! 🙂
OC, you can’t compare the Manzanita 2800 sqft with Maybecks because it has backyard and front driveway for garage. The plan 1 & 2 is like Maybecks with side yard and garage in the back with common driveway. Plan 1 & 2 are in the 700’s, just like the ones in Portico. With that said, I agree the Manazanita is way overpriced if you compare with 4S. The MR and HOA are insanely high, which make it even more if you add up the total cost.
Jim,
I found this little gem on the market in Del Mar…
929 Border Ave Del Mar CA 92014
9 bed, 6 bath, 5.5 acres
Listed At: $76,000,000
Lets see that walk-through. 🙂
No specific pricing? The grand opening in April or March had the following pricing:
Plan 3 (2789 sqft): Lot 13 was 812K / Lot 15 was 810K / Lot 23 was 815K / Lot 25 was 800K
Plan 4 (3056 – 3318 sqft): Lot 12 was 838K / Lot 14 was 830K / Lot 24 was 830K / Lot 26 was 846K
Can’t believe people are caught up in the frenzy…how soon they forget what just occurred not long ago in the housing market.
equal caliber schools? Sycamore Ridge (PHR) is consistently 20-40 API points ahead of Monterey Ridge (Maybeck). Torrey Pines High solidly beats Mount Carmel High in terms of graduates’ average SATs (by something like 100 points). When it comes to sending your kids to the very best schools, and when you can afford Carmel Valley, what’s 200k?
Also, why are you comparing Maybeck with 2800 sqft floorplans? Alley loaded Maybecks should be compared with alley loaded Manzanita Trail plans – starting at high 600’s per the web site.
Finally, the commute from employment (Sorrento Valley) to Manzanita Trail is 15-20 min shorter than the commute to 4S Ranch.
…you’ll be pushing $900,000 with lot premium and upgrades.
Lot premium? Even on the 3s & 4s can they really call those postage stamps “lots”? Didn’t see any topograpy and/or view that merited much of a premium, either.
More big house/small lot stuff. 2,000-2,200 sq ft is enough for up to a family of five (husband and wife plus three kids)-anything bigger than that is a big house, IMHO. That is, 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, maybe an extra half bath downstairs if it’s a two story, kitchen, family room, living room, all decent sized. But said family probably wants a yard.
From Mish:
Preferred Bank Hit By Declining San Diego Property Values
Preferred Bank, an independent Los Angeles-based commercial bank focusing on the Chinese-American and diversified Southern California market, reported an additional revision to results for the quarter and year ended Dec. 31, 2008, due to the receipt of an appraisal on an impaired construction loan.
The March “appraisal indicates a value deterioration far beyond our estimation for that area and far in excess of published market statistics for that market area,” said Li Yu, chairman and president of Preferred Bank.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/how-banks-become-condo-rental-agents.html
I wonder if some of these builders are playing The Barker and The Shill: hiring a couple dozen out of work actors to drive out to see their model homes over and over again each Saturday and Sunday. That sure would pump up the feeling of scarcity and create urgency in buyers that let their emotions drive their decision making. I have nothing to base this on, I’m just sayin’…
Why not just rent?
2,200 sqft @ $3100
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4926-Almondwood_San-Diego_CA_92130_1107832765
I’m not sure if it’s the same area, but I’m sure you can find similar prices. I plugged in a few numbers into my rent/buy calculator ( http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html) and you get an annual savings of around $17k per year for 18 years. $300,000 total savings over buying. You can send your kid to the same schools and you can open up your kid his own business (home realty business seems to be hot no matter what, by the looks of things) with the $300k when he graduates.
There are lots of young professional couples of various types that can legitimately afford an $800k starter home and a brand new one would be pretty attractive. I imagine the reasoning at this point would be the “coming” hyper-inflation.
Not sure about that. Very rare to find young professional couples with little debt, no car payments and student loans up the ying yang. And now with the tougher down payment and loan qualifications 800K home is a pretty high price tag even for a typical young professional couple. Of course DAPs are still around so if desparate, some programs will help those get their first home albeit at a premium.
K,
That would represent a very shallow understanding of hyperinflation.
http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
Hyperinflation in 1923 Germany
Real Estate: Farmers and holders of urban property seemed to benefit if their property was mortgaged; the inflation soon wiped out the mortgage debt. However, they received no income, as noted above, since rents were frozen. After the stabilization, heavy new taxes and the urgent need for cash forced most holders to remortgage their property, often more heavily than originally, so that their gains were illusory. Still, those who held real estate throughout managed to save the capital thus invested. However, those who sold during the inflation (often through desperate need for cash) fared poorly. Because it brought no income, real estate sold at extremely low real price levels during inflation.
There are lots of young professional couples of various types that can legitimately afford an $800k starter home
Remember when $800K was a lot of money?
Pump that fiat. Get your gold and silver while you can.
Gold is worth something only because people believe it is. You can’t eat it, you can’t live in it, you can’t drive it.
As long as people believe the dollar is worth something, it will be no different than gold. I get highly annoyed with the gold pushers, can you tell?
I couldn’t imagine spending that kind of money to live there. Sure, it may be closer to Sorrento Valley, but those entrances/exits on the 56 get backed up enough to cost you those extra 15 or 20 minutes. I don’t get why everyone doesn’t want to live in older neighborhoods with larger lots; I don’t want my neighbors knowing EVERYTHING about me, and I sure as hell don’t want to be that close to them.
That would represent a very shallow understanding of hyperinflation.
Sorry, I mis-spoke (mis typed?). There are so many people yelling “hyperinflation” these days, especially people pushing gold stocks that it’s sort of become the default.
I went through the Nixon/Carter years when the bill became due for the Vietnam war and Johnson’s great society. At it’s worse, I believe the inflation rate was in double digits for some years. The house prices pretty much doubled over that time while the interest rates were 8 percent or higher. If we have something similar, and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be as bad, then an $800k loan will be effectively $400k when it’s all over.
I see possible “stagflation” but “hyerinflation” on what basis?
We have current global wage/rent supression. We have a backdrop of global outsourcing.
WE have millions of jobs lost that are never coming back. The “alt energy bubble” if it ever becomes a bubble is 3-5 years off.
The fed is between the “rock and the hard place” and raising interest rates vs inflation, the feds seem bent on keeping rates low, yet we are faced with future higher commodity prices, food supply chain disruption, etc due to water issues(lack of).
Would also be curious to where all these Asian engineers who make 250-300k are coming from to buy these ugly $800-900 boxes. I have engineer friends in mgmt positions and they make 150k tops.
You can’t eat it, you can’t live in it, you can’t drive it.
You can eat beans, live in a box and drive a scooter. Everything else is worth something (more) only because people believe it is. Applying rational arguments to irrational beings (i.e., humans) just doesn’t fly.
I believe the CV premium (as compared to 4S and other areas just down the 56) comes from Asian American professionals who want their kids to go to school with other Asian kids trained to study rather than play little league. A shared value thing – so the Asians end up clustering. It’s a much more important factor than lot size, mello-roos, proximity to retail, etc.
You Ron-Paul-loving-invest-in-gold types are smoking crack. Deflation is what’s happening, not hyperinflation.
The International Monetary Fund, in it’s April 22nd report, predicts DEFLATION for the United States for 2010. See The Economist for April 25th, page 75.
Inflation is starting up and will happen no matter what. The FED is committed to inflation and will drop money from helicopters if they have to. Negative interest rates anyone? http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/business/economy/19view.html (Keep in mind the author of that piece was a presidential economic adviser and teaches at Harvard)
What is up with the CV-hate on this board?
a lot of CVers dont get affected by the traffic you all imagine. Major employment centers like Sorrento Valley, UTC, Torrey Pines, Carmel Valley (El Camino Real/56) are like 10-15 mins away. Carlsbad and Rancho Bernardo work corridors are 25-35 minutes away — against the traffic (northbound/eastbound AMs and reversed PMs).
The way most describe CV makes it seem that we must be the exception in all of CV — a 2300 sq ft house on a mortgage we pay monthly at 115% (extra payments) that is 5 minutes to *topnotch* schools, CV library, movies, and grocery, and 10 minutes to work, to Torrey Pines Park and Beach, to our family doctor and hospital, and to restaurants.
And yes, we do have a postage stamp sized lot by choice.
I just dont get all the hate or cynicism especially since everyone here is old enough to know that each of us has our own metrics and desires.
CV owner,
I agree with you. We would have moved to CV if we could have, but it was too much $. However, I get the appeal of it. We live in 4S, and it gets much of the same critique. We chose 4S because we felt like it was much of the same, at a little lower price than CV. We love it here: great schools, lots of commerce very near (carmel Mtn Ranch etc.) and my husband has a 20 minute commute to work. We didn’t want to live our lives speculating what may happen in the future. We bought a house we love and can afford, so quite your hating and whining!
Pardee owns all the land out there including the farmland – they lease it out to farmers to help pay for holding costs and make it appear like they’re always running out of land. In actuality, they can build for the next 15-20 years easily.
A $750K Portico breaks down to about $350K land and $400K improvement. So the economics say it’s just a matter of time. But it’s not like they can sell houses any faster by bulldozing it all at once. They use the flower shop sales strategy where they “sell out” over and over with small batches.
Like with most new construction, built into the price are a ton of under the table incentives. Appraisers really ought to factor this in better into the “real” house price.
Taken from my earlier comments at:
http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/206/postid/64660/view/topic/Default.aspx
Also from this foreclosure in Portico:
http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsNeighborhoods/tabid/62/forumid/206/postid/64660/view/topic/Default.aspx
$667K for 2408 sqft Portico, great price! =)
cv owner,
What you’re seeing is you’re getting stuck in the crossfire between extremists of both camps. On the SDlookup forums, rabidly pro-CV trolls actually outnumber anti-CV trolls. Then there’s everyone in-between who gets pigeonholed by one side or the other no matter what you say about CV.
There’s also confusion depending on if we’re talking about West or East CV, where West is almost exclusively condos and East is almost exclusively deatched houses.
FYI, when you leave a comment that has more than one link, it automatically goes to moderator approval. Sometimes when I’m working my day job, I don’t get to approve the comment right away, and it’ll show up much later.
Thanks! Great insight on Manzanita as always, this is one of the few developments I’m excited about in a long time. Better value than the new construction in 4S, especially once you consider the rates of Mello Roos (effectively a 1.7% tax rate?) and the floor plans.
reason why maybeck is a good comparison is the yard is just as small and the size is the same. garage in the back vs front is a personal preference, I don’t believe there’s a price deduction due to the garage in back concept.
portico is much smaller and narrower than maybeck, the comparison doesn’t match.
so the same sized home is still $200k difference carmel valley vs 4s. I say $100k difference is more realistic.
finally, cv is absolutely more inconvenient, especially for the large number of asian american professionals that covet it. most of them, at least the chinese speaking ones, end up driving to rb every weekend for chinese school and shopping trips.
OCR,
I have to drive from Encinitas to Mira Mesa just for Pho. There is not much in the way of good ethnic foods in this part of the hood – Albeit minor inconvenience. 5 – 10 minute drive to any grocery store or family Dr/Dentist is too long for me.
Next up: Pardee Shaw Lorenz – multi million dollar homes in CV built during the Great Recession. I wouldn’t believe it except that it’s happening as we speak.
Quite a few of them too, from their website:
Shaw Lorenz
Plans are underway for our next neighborhood on the Shaw Lorenz property in Del Mar Mesa, just east of Carmel Country Highlands. Shaw Lorenz will feature 136 home sites as well as a trail system and lots of dedicated open space. As it is too early to begin forming an interest list, please check the website often, as new information will be posted when it becomes available.
It is worth noting that these homes are not in the Del Mar school district, but in the Solana Beach school district. 2nd tier, folks.
?This history is well known. ,
what happened to Shaw Lorenz?