We’re going to define ‘shadow inventory’ as anything on our list from foreclosure radar, which includes NODs, NOTSs, and REOs. There will probably be some homeowners who will find a way to cure their default, but there are probably just as many coming right behind them that haven’t made the list yet, so we’ll call it even.

Our new hire Richard Morgan compiled and sorted these, as he is becoming ‘at one’ with the foreclosure list, and bringing additonal product for our buyers’ consideration. I did some spot checks, and they look accurate. These are detached-only.

Consider the actual number of shadows, and how they relate (%) to current MLS inventory:

Town or Area Zip Code FRadar FR In MLS Net ‘Shadow’ MLS Act % Inventory Incr.
RSF both
27
4
23
332
7%
Del Mar 92014
19
8
11
144
8%
Carmel Vly 92130
58
22
36
221
16%
La Jolla 92037
63
18
45
283
16%
SD DT condos 92101
272
58
214
605
35%
Solana Bch 92075
36
5
31
80
39%
Encinitas 92024
121
20
101
211
48%
Carlsbad NW 92008
54
9
45
90
50%
Carlsbad SW 92011
69
14
55
110
50%
Carlsbad NE 92010
34
9
25
49
51%
Cardiff 92007
27
2
25
45
56%
Carlsbad SE 92009
150
26
124
162
77%
La Mesa 91941
186
20
166
96
173%
Santee 92071
206
31
175
84
208%

It appears that the higher-end areas don’t have that many foreclosures in the works, compared to active inventory. But you can contribute it more to that fact that their MLS inventories are sky-high, and nothing is selling, and/or folks in the tonier parts of town have more money/credit cards and are able to hold out.

Buyers for SE Carlsbad and Encinitas (92009 & 92024) should be elated to see a possible 100+ bank-owned houses coming to their inventories before long – hopefully!

We included La Mesa and Santee for our good friend lgs, but interesting to note how a couple of relatively blue-collar towns are faring. Will the same result trickle over to the coast?

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Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!

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