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Check out this link to First American's analysis of where we've been and where we're going.  His conclusions are at the end.  (Note the date - October. 2004)

http://www.realestateclubla.com/pdf/Cagan_FireBurn_1104.pdf

Overall the trend is clear - we have to live with fewer sales.  I can deal with that, can the sellers?

The last four weeks the number of pending sales has grown nicely, and the number of new listings coming on the market has been steady. 

See Statistics 2006 for trends in the Carlsbad, Oceanside, and north Vista!

I'm going to start a new category for statistics for the new year - see Statistics 2006

The first of two statistical categories I watch are the active-to-pending numbers of detached houses in Carlsbad, Oceanside, and Vista (92084 only).  This ratio reflects the overall health of the market.  My measuring stick is a 2:1 ratio - when there is two active listings to every pending listing, it's a normal market.  The last few years it has been a steady 1:1 ratio - the listings were going pending as fast as they were coming on!

I'll keep a log here of future stats for comparison. A ratio between 1:1 and 3:1 is acceptable in my mind.  I'd say a 2.64 indicates a likely downward trend in prices in the future, but no panic yet.  If this number goes over 3:1, then the inventory is growing faster than people are buying.  Compare our area, North Coastal San Diego County, with the downtown San Diego condo market - their current ration is 552/134, or a whopping 4.11 active listings for every pending. Clearly there's trouble downtown (December 3rd update for downtown condos: 540/122 or a 4.42:1 ratio).

Actives/Pendings, as of:

October 25, 2005      1,250 Active listings/473 Pending  2.64:1 ratio

October 31, 2005       1,261 Active/445 Pending  2.83

November 4, 2005    1,257 Active/432 Pending 2.91

November 7, 2005    1,245 Active/438 Pending  2.84

November 10, 2005  1,241 Active/441 Pending  2.81

November 14, 2005  1,253 Active/449 Pending  2.79

November 18, 2005  1,248 Active/441 Pending  2.83

November 23, 2005  1,211 Active/433 Pending   2.80

November 28, 2005 1,199 Active/429 Pending   2.79

December 3, 2005    1,185 Active/ 408 Pending   2.90

December 8, 2005    1,158 Active/ 410 Pending   2.82

December 13, 2005  1,137 Active/ 408 Pending  2.79

December 20, 2005 1,112 Active/ 375 Pending  2.97

December 24, 2005 1,092 Active/ 365 Pending 2.99

Another number to watch is number of sales in general.  Here's a comparison of annual sales of detached homes:

2000                          3,281 sales, or 273 sales per month

2001                           3,156 sales, or 263 per month

2002                           3,736 sales, or 311 per month

2003                           3,907 sales, or 325 per month

2004                           3,739 sales, or 311 per month

2005                           3,505 sales, or 292 per month (though 12/31/05)

If there was a big drop-off in sales, I would be a lot more concerned about the bubble. We're still heading for at least 3,400 total sales for 2005, or approximately 283 sales a month. Obviously, that's less than in each of the last three years, but not enough of a drop-off to cause panic.   If sales slow to a crawl, we'll have to see a big drop in price to compensate for lower demand.  But if we sell around 90% of the recent annual sales numbers, which were record numbers, I think we're OK.  The average number of sales for the last three years is 3,794 x 90% = 3,415.