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Trigger Lead

From a buyer who recently applied for a mortgage:

Buyer: I’ve had about 40 calls since 7am this morning for mortgages.

I didn’t take any of them and most of them are leaving VMs and texts saying they got notified by Experian that my credit was pulled for mortgage purposes and they want to help. Not sure why and how Experian is sharing my information. I am sure there is a fineprint somewhere.

Lender: It’s not uncommon these days unfortunately. It’s called a trigger lead. Very annoying thing the credit bureaus do.

Here is some info:

What is a trigger lead? When a borrower applies for a mortgage, the three credit bureaus take that information and sell it as a “mortgage lead” to any lender that is willing to pay for it. The “mortgage lead” has the borrower’s name, contact information and the date they applied for credit on it.

Why would someone buy a trigger lead? A trigger lead is a really good indicator that someone is in the process of refinancing or a purchasing a home. A lot of lenders feel this a great opportunity to try to steal the transaction for themselves.

Why is it so bad right now? With interest rates going up and refinance activity going down, most lender’s pipelines have begun to disappear. In response to that a lot of them are buying trigger leads right now.

Why doesn’t your bank do something about this? Unfortunately we do not have ability to block or restrict the credit bureaus from selling this information. This activity is not illegal, it’s legal for the credit bureaus to sell it as they are the owners of the data.

What can we do to help borrowers avoid this?  They can remove their information from being sold as a trigger lead. They can do this over the phone or through a website provided by the credit bureaus. Web link here: www.optoutprescreen.com  or phone here: 888–567–8688. This must be done before they apply for credit and can take up to 5 business days to process so this may not work for everyone.

Inventory Watch

The Big Standoff continued this week.

Sellers are confident about their pricing, and refuse to budge much – and buyers are being very patient.

There were 55 new NSDCC listings in the last week, and NONE of them have been marked pending yet!

Pricing in the higher-end market looks troubling, but it’s mostly due to the additional homes for sale.

On January 31st, the 3rd quartile was $9,922,500, and today it’s $5,500,000 which is a 45% drop! There were 102 active listings priced over $4,000,000 back then, and now it’s grown to 164, which is a 60% increase.  More sellers are pushing into the higher ranges!

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Edible Landscaping in Encinitas

Fox Point Farms is a new “Agrihood” community spanning approximately 21.5-acre in the City of Encinitas. The site will provide 250 new residential units, including a mix of 53 for-sale cottages, carriage units, and townhomes, as well as 197 apartments. Of these units, 39 are set aside as “very low” (at or below 50 percent of area median income) affordable residential units.

The site features a number of unique and engaging amenities, including edible landscaping, community gardens, trails, a bocce court, social spaces, a community library, and a community recreation center. The project will also include a shared public/private agricultural amenity area including a farm-to-table restaurant, farm stand, event lawns, discovery garden, greenhouse and community work area, and an outdoor education patio. The northern portion of the project site will remain in agricultural use, serving as an organic farm operation.

List-Price Wrongness

We keep hearing about price reductions, but it’s a miracle that the list pricing isn’t worse!

Consider:

We’ve had a strong seller’s market for 10-12 years – would we recognize anything else, let alone know what to do with it?

There is no guidance or formula for buyers, sellers, and agents to determine the right price.

There are market signals, but who knows what to do with them?

When should price adjustments be made, and by how much?

The doom is heavy, and buyers are understandably nervous. How much is the skittish discount?

Yet some people suggest you should go it alone? Like this guy?

Get Good Help!

100% Sold In Ten Days or Less

Here is a good sampling of the NSDCC pricing decisions made in May (mortgage rates started going up the first of April). The days-on-market are on the left.

Days on Market: All 28 found their buyer quickly – only one took as long as ten days!

Paid Over List: 21 of 28 paid over the list price (75%).

Of the 21 who paid over the list price, the average amount paid over list was $185,761. Literally 11 out of 21 paid at least $200,000 over list – and these 28 sales are the mid-range group!

Best Discount: -$70,000.

Here are some of the big winners:

NSDCC Listings, First Half

The number of detached-home listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad has plummeted this year, compared to previous years. We saw the June counts (included again here), but how does the overall count look for the first six months of 2022?

NSDCC Listings, First Half of the Year

Year
# of Listing, Jan-Jun
Median LP
Median SP
# of June Listings
2016
2,996
$1,425,000
$1,154,000
513
2017
2,703
$1,425,000
$1,225,050
416
2018
2,698
$1,499,000
$1,325,0002
476
2019
2,708
$1,550,000
$1,300,000
435
2020
2,303
$1,675,000
$1,400,000
448
2021
2,166
$1,900,000
$1,850,101
386
2022
1,682
$2,400,000
$2,428,000
326

We used to have around 2,700 listings in the first half of the year, and a sizeable gap between the median list price, and the median sales price.

Now we have 1/3 fewer listings, and a median sales price that is $577,899 higher than last year (+31%) – and it’s also HIGHER than the median list price!

As more potential sellers get the (wrong) impression that now isn’t a good time to sell, don’t be surprised if listing counts drop further. And people think prices are going to go down? Why? There isn’t much to buy now, and it’s going to get worse – the trend is fewer people want to sell.

Sales are toast – we are probably going to have months this year where the NSDCC sales count gets down around 100 per month, which has never happened before. But it’s because fewer people want to move, and those that do list their home for sale will want to hold out on price – or just wait until ‘the market improves’.

Leucadia Developments

More review of the latest developments in Leucadia as I cruise by the next Toll Brothers community and take a look at what the planning commission just approved:

The 3.79-acre project site, which is just south of the Alila Marea hotel on N. Coast Highway, is proposed to contain 94 apartments, of which 19 will be set aside for low-income people. There’s also a 34-unit hotel that will be connected via bridge to the existing resort. Some of the apartments will be built over a parking structure, others will be above commercial space. The commercial areas could contain everything from an ice cream shop to high-end restaurants.

Over List, June

Paying over the list price must have some addictive qualities!

Either that, or the superior homes are still attracting a lot of attention.  Well into the higher-rate environment, more than half of the June buyers paid over the list price!

Here is the breakdown by price range:

The average and median sales prices have been drifting downward, but both are still above the list prices:

The year-over-year sales are going to look terrible because 2021 was an incredible frenzy.  The NSDCC June sales in the three previous years were 274, 282, and 299, so the 188 is only 34% below that average.

My La Jolla sale was the fifth-highest sales price in June, and sold for $1,150,000 more than the oceanfront house on Calumet.  My $800,000 over list was #1 – it was the most over list of all the June sales!

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