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Most recent articles

September Sales

Sept 2014 sales

Here’s an excerpt from the Dataquick sales release for September:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA141013.aspx

Irvine, CA—Southern California home sales hit a five-year high for a September, rising slightly above a year earlier for the first time in 12 months amid gains for mid- to high-end deals. The median sale price fell below an 80-month high reached in August and for the first time in more than two years none of the Southland counties posted a double-digit year-over-year price gain, CoreLogic DataQuick reported.

A total of 19,348 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 2.9 percent from 18,796 sales in August, and up 1.2 percent from 19,112 sales in September 2013, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.

On average, sales have fallen 9.4 percent between August and September since 1988, when CoreLogic DataQuick statistics begin. Last month marked the first time sales have risen on a year-over-year basis since September last year, when sales rose 7.0 percent from September 2012.

September home sales have ranged from a low of 12,455 in 2007 to a high of 37,771 in 2003. Last month’s sales were 18.3 percent below the September average of 23,695 sales.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the six-county region last month was $413,000, down 1.7 percent from $420,000 in August and up 8.1 percent from $382,000 in September 2013. The August 2014 median was the highest for any month since December 2007, when it was $425,000.

Southland sales were 2.9% higher in September than August, when on average there is a 9.4% decline?  Considering how high prices are, that’s good.  We didn’t do as well locally.  Here are the stats for NSDCC detached-home sales:

Mo./Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
Avg. DOM
Sept. ’13
263
$470/sf
52
Aug. ’14
245
$500/sf
45
Sept ’14
231
$478/sf
49

Sales were down 12% year-over-year, and 6% lower than August.

Posted by on Oct 15, 2014 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

‘Best Rates Since June 2013′

Oct 14th rates

We should see a resurgence in buyer interest now that rates are under 4%.  They probably won’t pay a lot more, but if sellers can live with the same price as the last comp, they should be able to sell.

From MND:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/398692.aspx

Mortgage rates continued living the dream today, falling decisively past last week’s lows to claim another instance of “best rates since June 2013.”  Today’s move was exceptional compared to last week’s (or just about any other move lower of 2014 for that matter).  After heading into the weekend in relatively conservative territory, the bond markets that underlie mortgages were greeted with massive movement in broader financial markets over the 3-day weekend.

Some of that movement took place late on Friday–too late for rate sheets to experience much benefit–but most of it occurred in global bond markets during Asian and European trading overnight.

Motivation varies depending who you ask, but the concept of “global growth concerns” is the common thread running through most of the reasons offered for the drop in rates.

Last week’s best moments saw the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates hover between 4.0 and 4.125% for top tier borrowers.  Today’s rates all but eliminated 4.125% from that list.  In fact, 3.875% would now be more common than 4.125% (assuming a flawless loan file, 75% or lower Loan-to-Value, and a competitive lender).  Rates haven’t been any lower since the first half of June 2013.

Posted by on Oct 14, 2014 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Market Buzz, Market Conditions | 0 comments

New Homes = Larger Premium

The higher-priced new homes help to accelerate the values of existing homes.  All sellers have to do is undercut the price of new tracts nearby - if there are any! HT to daytrip for sending this in from the latimes.com:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-new-home-prices-20141014-story.html#page=1

Southland new and resale house prices

Builders have piled in to pricey ZIP Codes — bidding up land costs there in the process — and polished their projects to a high gloss to woo wealthy buyers with cash or good credit.

“Builders have been focusing very heavily on the move-up market as opposed to entry level,” said Bradley Hunter, chief economist at housing research firm MetroStudy. “There’s a simple reason: That’s where the profits are.”

Meanwhile, projects aimed at the middle of the market remain scarce, and overall home building is off about 60% from a decade ago. The shortage of new lower-priced product is one factor making Southern California among the toughest housing markets in the country for middle-income families.

New homes have almost always sold at a premium. They come with bells and whistles — including energy-efficient appliances and often a warranty — that a decades-old house can’t match. But that premium has hit new highs this year.

In January, the gap between median-priced new and resale homes in Southern California peaked at $151,000, a 41% premium for a new house. And although it has eased a bit since, it has been larger than $100,000 in nine of the last 10 months, compared with an average of $38,000 over the last 25 years, according to CoreLogic’s figures. The same trend is playing out nationally, though in less dramatic fashion.

Higher-end home builders see this dynamic too, and they’re gobbling up what land is left. Luxury builder Toll Bros. acquired 3,200 lots in Southern California this year when it bought Shapell Homes, part of its plan to expand from its East Coast base into higher-growth markets. Now Toll is working on five new communities, from Santa Clarita to Carlsbad, in prime spots with good schools. It will start selling homes next year, said Jim Boyd, head of Toll’s California operations, and expects to do well.

“I think the market is pretty strong,” he said.

Read full article here:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-new-home-prices-20141014-story.html#page=1

Posted by on Oct 13, 2014 in Builders, Thinking of Buying? | 1 comment

Inventory Watch – Steady More Steady

Figuring that not many readers make it all the way to the bottom of this weekly inventory report, I clipped the bottom category and brought it to the top. This is the last 2.5 months of weekly counts of new listings, and new pendings:

title

actives pendings symmetry1

It is remarkable how steady the market has been – there hasn’t been any drop off in demand, even after school started and the Chargers began their roll.

The new listings coming to market have been steady too, and in reviewing the active inventory below, you’ll see that sellers aren’t giving up yet either.  Very few are cancelling their listing, and Halloween is within sight!

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf
Jun 16
104
$369/sf
35
0sf
Jun 23
111
$380/sf
34
0sf
Jun 30
119
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jul 7
122
$387/sf
36
0sf
Jul 14
127
$388/sf
34
0sf
Jul 21
135
$381/sf
36
0sf
Jul 28
144
$382/sf
37
0sf
Aug 4
148
$379/sf
39
0sf
Aug 11
135
$375/sf
42
0sf
Aug 25
135
$374/sf
43
0sf
Sep 1
126
$377/sf
46
0sf
Sep 8
130
$375/sf
46
0sf
Sep 15
134
$369/sf
45
0sf
Sep 22
127
$376/sf
49
0sf
Sep 29
132
$378/sf
48
0sf
Oct 6
130
$367/sf
48
0sf
Oct 13
131
$378/sf
44
0sf

Read More

Posted by on Oct 13, 2014 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 6 comments

Open House Report – October

BoP

Of the people who came to the open house today, only one was a neighbor, and none were agents.  Yeah sure Jim, but how serious were they?

There are plenty of drivebys; anyone who is willing to park, get out of their car and trudge up to another open house knowing they have been constantly disappointed by others all year (and have to endure another salesman) must have sincere motivation to buy a house at some point.  If they could only find the right house, at the right price!

Posted by on Oct 12, 2014 in Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments

REO Listings Skyrocket

I hope the headline porn grabbed you! :lol:

REO listings have increased lately around NSDCC, though they are still a small fraction of the overall marketplace (there have been 2,238 detached-home sales closed this year between Carlsbad and La Jolla).

The short-sale listings coming to market haven’t changed much all year, which would be the first place you would see the effect of mortgage servicers getting tougher with deadbeats:

Type of Listing
Jan 1 – June 30
July 1 – present
REO
4
8
Short-sale
36
18
Non-Distressed
2,672
1,262
Total
2,712
1,388

This guy borrowed $3.75 million to do a spectacular remodel on this Del Mar home (the house with the glass-bottom pool), but he wasn’t going to give it away.  The original list price was $6,750,000 in October, 2013, and dropped to $5,950,000 before getting foreclosed in June. The bank promptly listed for $5,495,000, and sold it for $5,210,000 last month:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140036477-116_Nob_Ave_Del_Mar_CA_92014

There is some hope that lenders and servicers are increasing the flow now that prices are so much higher than before, and it would make sense that they would cherry-pick the properties on which they could make a profit.

But no flood of notices yet:

San Diego County Filings

Posted by on Oct 12, 2014 in Foreclosures/REOs, REO Inventory, REO Pre-Listings, Short Sales, Short Selling | 6 comments