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North SD Actives/Pendings

How ‘cooking’ is it?

In NE Carlsbad, Solana Beach, East Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos there are more houses pending than active – that’s scorching hot.

Places where the Actives-to-Pendings are better than a 2:1 ratio are doing well.

Here are the stats in different areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cariff
92007
18
13
6
$705,800
$609/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
19
13
$770,000
$625/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
75
53
49
$860,000
$310/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
21
9
$660,000
$311/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
27
20
$788,750
$362/sf
Del Mar
92014
62
19
14
$1,370,000
$583/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
59
42
$1,207,952
$463/sf
La Jolla
92037
156
51
41
$1,835,000
$774/sf
RSF
67+91
183
34
31
$2,700,000
$555/sf
Solana Bch
92075
16
25
8
$1,658,750
$816/sf
W. RB
92127
113
76
51
$988,000
$329/sf
E. RB
92128
65
70
39
$594,000
$325/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
37
54
28
$660,000
$317/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
84
54
28
$1,171,750
$394/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
43
35
20
$856,000
$300/sf
All Above
All
1,028
610
402
$938,337
$439/sf

We’re just getting started!

Posted by on Feb 23, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch – Cooking

Buyers are hitting the streets in full force now. We’ve had 60+ new pendings for three weeks in a row, which hasn’t happened since July. Of the 63 new pendings this week, eleven had been on the market less than 7 days, and eight had been on the market for more than 100 days.

It appears that list-price averages are going to stay above $400/sf. Remember when Carmel Valley sales averaged $330/sf for a couple of years!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Feb 23, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

NSDCC New Listings YTD

It used to make sense that the higher prices went, the more people would sell.

But now here we are at all-time high prices, and not many are interested.  It must be due to the lack of other options – not selling looks better than selling.

New Detached-Home Listings Between Jan 1 – Feb 15

Year
# of New Listings
Median List Price
2001
783
$659,000
2002
760
$707,450
2003
827
$829,000
2004
568
$999,950
2005
632
$1,166,000
2006
890
$1,099,000
2007
777
$1,200,000
2008
758
$1,166,836
2009
706
$1,195,000
2010
663
$959,000
2011
747
$995,000
2012
620
$935,450
2013
622
$1,121,950
2014
622
$1,300,000
2015
603
$1,380,000

One place where there has been some nice action is the $700,000 – $900,000 range along the I-15 corridor.  There has been a steady stream of new product coming to market, and momentum is building as most sell within the first week (catching many sellers and agents by surprise).

When there are only a smattering of new listings like we’re having along the coast, buyers struggle with whether the pricing is real.  A few will sell here and there, but more listings would provide more comfort to buyers, one way or another.  If they see them selling, then they’d be more likely to jump in!

Posted by on Feb 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

Bubble or No Bubble 2

double bubble

Analyst Chris Thornberg doesn’t think this is a bubble market, and suggested that you should go buy anything you can get your hands on.

While the current environment may have the same frenzy/intensity of the last bubble, there are three reasons it won’t blow up like it did last time:

1.  Banks have learned to be flexible on foreclosures. 

They figured it out – the houses being foreclosed today are those with some equity, and either the bank is getting their full pop at the trustee sale, or if they have to sell it as an REO they might make some extra dough.

2.  The government is in full support of the housing market. 

Tweak the accounting rules, throw money at loan-mod programs, lower rates, and literally tell the banks to not do anything to harm the economy.  Uncle Sam has your back.

3.  We learned that a surprising amount of people didn’t freak out over being underwater.

They have to live some place, and with some support from the previous two above, they survived.

If prices stabilize, Bernanke and his buddies will come out looking like heroes.  We don’t really need prices to keep going up around here; in most parts of North SD County’s coastal region we are back to peak pricing or higher.

Prices will ebb and flow.  But the vast majority of those who bought in recent years are in for the long haul, and won’t care about short-term fluctuations in value – at least not enough to panic-sell.

Posted by on Feb 20, 2015 in Bubble-Era Pricing, Jim's Take on the Market | 5 comments