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Carmel Valley
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Inventory Watch

2016-11-25-16-52-33

The Inventory Watch started the last week of November in 2013.

Here is how the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market has fared:

Last Week of November

Under $800,000
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
2014
122
$373/sf
46
2,007sf
2015
70
$400/sf
57
1,974sf
2016
31
$411/sf
37
1,851sf
$800,000 – $1.4M
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
2014
256
$431/sf
69
2,948sf
2015
210
$444/sf
64
2,801sf
2016
207
$439/sf
59
2,879sf
$1.40M – $2.40M
# of Active Listings
LP $/sf
Avg. DOM
Avg. SF
2013
227
$580/sf
81
3,692sf
2014
234
$583/sf
97
3,687sf
2015
225
$595/sf
91
3,626sf
2016
235
$595/sf
86
3,587sf

Once you get over $1,000,000, it’s been steady/flat.

But look how the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category has dropped in numbers, just like the Under-$800,000 range has done.  Fewer and fewer people are willing to sell for less.

The inventory over $2,400,000 has risen from 340 active listings in November, 2013 to 415 houses for sale today, which is a 22% increase.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Nov 28, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

CA Realtor Survey – October

mult

  • The share of homes selling above asking price edged up from 27 percent a year ago to 28 percent in October. Conversely, the share of properties selling below asking price dropped to 44 percent from 47 percent in October 2015. The remaining 28 percent sold at asking price, up from 25 percent in October 2015.
  • For homes that sold above asking price, the premium paid over asking price rose to 9.1 percent, up from 7.7 percent in September and 8.9 percent a year ago.
  • The 44 percent of homes that sold below asking price sold for an average of 8.9 percent below asking price in October, the lowest since May 2015. The premium paid in both September and a year ago was 12 percent.
  • Nearly six in 10 properties for sale (59 percent) received multiple offers in October, down from 63 percent in September and 64 percent from October 2015. October marked the seventh straight month of declining multiple offers.
  • The share of properties receiving three or more offers fell to 30 percent, the lowest level since the beginning of this year. Thirty-five percent of properties received three or more offers in September, and 36 percent of properties received three or more offers a year ago.
  • Compared to a year ago, there was an increase in the share of homes receiving three or more offers in homes priced $400,000 to $499,000 and $2 million and higher, while the share of low- to mid-priced homes experienced a decrease in three or more offers, particularly in homes priced $300,000 to $399,000, which dropped the sharpest – from 43 percent in October 2015 to 18 percent in October 2016.
  • About a third (31 percent) of properties had listing price reductions in October, up from 25 percent in September and down from 32 percent in October 2015.
  • Nearly half (45 percent) of REALTORS® were concerned about high home prices and housing affordability, while 26 percent indicated they were concerned about a lack of available homes for sale. REALTORS® also were concerned about a slowdown in economic growth, lending and financing, rising interest rates, and policy and regulations.
  • REALTORS®’ optimism of market conditions over the next year has been trending downward for the past few months but is still in positive territory at an index of 54 in October, unchanged from September but down from 57 in October 2015.

http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2016releases/oct2016pending

San Diego County looks like the best in the state (highest index):

pend

*Note:  C.A.R.’s pending sales information is generated from a survey of more than 70 associations of REALTORS® and MLSs throughout the state.  Pending home sales are forward-looking indicators of future home sales activity, offering solid information on future changes in the direction of the market.  A sale is listed as pending after a seller has accepted a sales contract on a property. The majority of pending home sales usually become closed sales transactions one to two months later. The year 2008 was used as the benchmark for the Pending Homes Sales Index.  An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2008.

Posted by on Nov 26, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

New Water-Conservation Law

golden-throne

The new law only requires that sellers disclose if they are not in compliance – but most buyers will expect sellers to bring their house into compliance before close, won’t they?

http://www.car.org/legal/disclosure-folder/water-conserving-plumbing-fixtures/

Introduction

California  law requires property owners (for properties built before 1994) to install water-conserving plumbing fixtures by 2017 for single-family properties and by 2019 for other properties ). Additionally, if a property is altered or improved after 2014, then water-conserving plumbing fixtures must be installed as a condition of final permit approval.  (Cal. Civ. Code section 1101.4)

In 2012 the Transfer Disclosure Statement was expanded to include a check box for water-conserving plumbing fixtures. As explained in the TDS itself, the check box does not create a point of sale requirement.  (Cal. Civ. Code section 1102.6.)

Beginning in 2017 a seller of a single-family property will also be required to disclose whether the property is in compliance with the law. This same disclosure requirement will apply to other types of properties beginning in 2019. Even then, the law creates no point of sale requirement.  (Cal. Civ. Code section 1101.4 and 1101.5.)

Q 1. What is the purpose of the water conservation law?

A The legislature thinks that water conservation is a cost effective approach to the challenges created by not having enough water. Those challenges include future economic health; environmental health; growing urban areas; water reliability; waste water treatment; energy and other resource costs; and protecting and restoring aquatic resources. All of these issues were cited as reasons behind this effort to promote water conservation.

Q 2. Does the water conservation  law create any point of sale requirements?

A No. There is nothing in the law that requires the installation of water-conserving fixtures as a condition of sale.

Q 3. If there are no point of sale requirements, then what is required?

A The law will require owners of real property to install water-conserving fixtures simply because they own the property regardless of whether they are selling it. The requirement for installation is not immediate, but will take effect in later years depending on the type of property or whether improvements are made. See questions 15 and 16 below.

Read More

Posted by on Nov 25, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

San Diego #6

rankings

In spite of record pricing, our NSDCC new-listing count this month is going to come in under last November’s count. Remember when greed was good? Apparently, staying put is better!

http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/20-hottest-markets-real-estate-u-s-november-2016/

While the nation is getting ready to digest massive amounts of turkey, the economic team at realtor.com® has digested a ton of data from our site for November. And though we’re a few days from the end of the month, we can go out on a limb and say it’ll be yet another month of record-low levels of housing supply, strong demand, and (not coincidentally) record-high prices.

The median list price looks to remain at $250,000 for a fourth straight month. That’s 9% higher than last year at this time, and sets a new record for November.

“After an eventful election, demand for real estate appears to be carrying momentum going into the holiday season,” says Javier Vivas, manager of economic research for realtor.com. “We  expect that to be put to the test, as mortgage rates sky rocket to new highs. But the economic foundations remain strong and most forecasts expect growth as we enter the new year, which should keep waves of buyers intent on entering the market.”

Viewing activity on our site shows that there’s still plenty of demand from buyers on the prowl for a home. But inventory of homes for sale is down 5% from October, and 11% compared with November 2015. It’s that combo of low supply and high demand that’s keeping prices high. And with only 363,000 new listings entering the market in November, the pickings will be even slimmer next month.

Although homes are selling a wee bit slower these days, as is typical in fall, they’re still moving 1% faster than last November. We’re projecting that homes for sale will have spent a median 82 days on market for November, three days slower than last month.

Posted by on Nov 23, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Flippant

t-day

I agree with the author about answering questions casually – agents look like idiots when they make a flippant remarks about work. The condition of the ‘market’ is relative to your own personal situation – it could be good or bad.

http://www.bestrealestateblog.com/6-things-shouldnt-ask-real-estate-agent-thanksgiving-dinner

#5 “How’s the market?”

This is too broad of a question.

The market is never entirely good, bad, or somewhere in between. It’s always good for some people, bad for others. How the market is depends entirely upon you and your needs and circumstances.

Not a bad question really. But it certainly isn’t one that an agent can or should just answer flippantly. So if you ask it, maybe you should be prepared to get into your specific scenario so they can accurately answer it.

Too many people get flippant answers from agents and base their perspective on the real estate market, and overall economy, on off-handed answers to questions like this.

Posted by on Nov 22, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, Realtor Training, Realtors Talking Shop | 0 comments