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NSDCC 2016 Sales Predictions

NSDCC Quarterly Sales

The rest of the year is shaping up quite nicely – if all that matters are stats.

After a slow start in 1Q16, we closed 909 sales in the second quarter!  After a strong 2015, there was some expectation for a pullback this year, but not yet – we exceeded the 2Q15 total of 901 sales!

Can we predict the rest of 2016?

We had similar second-quarter counts in both 2012 and 2015 as we did this year, and in both years the 3Q counts dropped off about the same (845 and 832).  With the attractive mortgage rates we should at least equal, and hopefully do a little better?  Let’s predict 850 NSDCC sales for the third quarter of 2016.

The last 3 fourth quarters have been almost identical – sales counts in the 660s.

We had 556 + 909 = 1,465 sales in first half of 2016.

Today we have 416 pendings.

Predicting 850 + 660 = 1,510 sales in second half of 2016.

Here are the NSDCC quarterly sales numbers:

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
850?
4Q
832
664
666
662
660?
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
2,975?

What needs to happen to ensure a vibrant second half of 2016?

Buyers need to make offers.

Sellers aren’t going to go first.

Even if they did lower the price, it won’t be by much.  Mid-summer is here, and buyers have more permission. It’s not April any more!

Posted by on Jul 12, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Farm at Home

farm

Being self-sufficient today can include growing your own food.  Here is a new-home tract that includes farmland within the community:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-farmland-may-become-a-more-popular-neighborhood-amenity-than-a-golf-course-2016-07-11

Amy Fahey tends to a backyard garden at her suburban Chicago home, growing tomatoes, cucumbers, kale, peppers, Brussels sprouts, beans and herbs. But never squash.

“Three years in a row I’ve been struggling to grow squash,” she said. The reason it won’t take, she thinks: There aren’t enough bees to pollinate the plants. “We’ve killed off parts of the environment that could naturally make this happen,” said the retired J.P. Morgan executive who lives in Elmhurst, Ill., with her husband and teenage daughter.

But the neighborhood in which the Faheys are building a home offers new hope.

Set in Hampshire, Ill., about 50 miles from downtown Chicago, Serosun Farms is a new home-conservation development, restoring wetlands, woodlands and prairie, and preserving farmland throughout. Already, the frog population has grown exponentially from the conservation work done onsite, and monarch butterflies are also on the rebound, said Jane Stickland, who is working on the project with her brother, developer John DeWald. Their efforts also are boosting the bee population.

It’s very early in its development, but Serosun plans to incorporate about 160 acres of working farmland, making farm-to-table a way of life for residents through regular farmer’s markets. The community also offers eight miles of trails, an equestrian center and fishing ponds: 75% of the development will be reserved for farming and open space.

The 114 single-family homes range from $700,000 to $2 million; the median listing price for homes in Hampshire, Ill., is about $238,000, according to Realtor.com.

Read full article here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-farmland-may-become-a-more-popular-neighborhood-amenity-than-a-golf-course-2016-07-11

Posted by on Jul 11, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Building?, Thinking of Buying? | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-07-06 13.17.29

Anyone who was planning to sell during the season has probably listed their home for sale by now, and in the next few days we should be reaching peak inventory for the year.  Don’t think that you have missed out though – the low rates should keep buyers engaged.

Today’s median list price in NSDCC?  $2,175,000!

Eighty-eight percent of the houses for sale are priced over $1,000,000!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jul 11, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments

ASG and KK

kayla klinge 25

We’re wrapping up the celebration of Kayla’s 25th birthday! (yesterday)

She was born on the day of the 1991 All-Star Game.  I got to hold her in my arms and watch baseball on TV from Day One!  The game was in Toronto, and Benito Santiago and Tony Gwynn both started for the National League!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game

We had some random thoughts:

  1. How many people have lived in their current residence longer than any other house in their life?  I’ll say most.  The novelty of moving has worn off, and appreciating what you have is the new orange.  Shall we say an equal impact on supply and demand – and drying up both?
  2. Every house on the market for more than 7 days is probably a fixer – sellers should do improvements in advance. Buyers are schooled by HGTV, and want perfection. If you have a superior home in a terrific location, you’ll get offers right away as long as your price is within reason.
  3.  The Joys of Homeownership.  Whether the home is owner-occupied or a rental, let’s expect to spend $1,000 per month, on average, for repairs and improvements. You can cruise for a few years, but eventually you can expect to replace the furnace, air conditioning, water-heater, dishwasher, and refrigerator every ten years.  Carpet, paint, and landscaping every five years.  Sure, if you or your tenants don’t mind living in squalor, it’s not a problem. But if you want to sell for top dollar, you need top-dollar improvements.
  4.  You can judge the listing agent’s experience by the MLS comments.  The market isn’t hot enough that you can bluff me into thinking that your listing is so great that you’ll have multiple offers by tomorrow. Just make it easy to show, would you?
  5. We are overdue for a media onslaught. Any disruption in the positive housing trends are sure to be exploited by national media types. Don’t listen to anybody who doesn’t have on-the-ground examples to back them up.
  6.  The ‘Sold before Processing’ listings are of great convenience. There is fantastic efficiency for a listing agent to quickly shuffle a deal into escrow and move on to the next sale, and avoid having to deal with those messy bidding wars.
  7.  It seems like Zillow is enthusiastically supporting their big-spending realtors.  Zillow needs to go next-level and just openly promote their favorite agents.  There will be more lines in the sand to be drawn.
  8.  The unstable current events should make you conscious of your home’s security.  Do you feel secure at home?  Make your home defensible, or consider moving!
  9.  Revolution is going to come, so we should take charge. Take the gun issue.  Both sides should submit their solution, and a compromise hammered out.  Something has to change.
  10.  If unrest continues, it is probably good for real estate.  More people will buy a house to hunker down – to “cocoon”, and drive demand.

Wondering what to do?  Either you can settle at today’s prices, or take your chances during the next spring selling season with the new president!

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Posted by on Jul 10, 2016 in About Kayla, Jim's Take on the Market, Kayla Training, Market Buzz, Market Conditions | 0 comments

NSDCC June Sales and Pricing

bump

When comparing the 2016 activity to previous years, we stack up pretty good – when we combine months.

Here are the links to May/June and Jan-Jun numbers.

But when we look at June only, it looks like we’ve hit a bump in the road:

June Sales and Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg Cost-per-SF
Median Sales Price
2012
339
$368/sf
$867,500
2013
333
$453/sf
$1,025,000
2014
322
$481/sf
$1,077,850
2015
336
$484/sf
$1,116,000
May16
326
$498/sf
$1,208,750
2016
286
$512/sf
$1,200,000

There will be a few more late-reporters, but not enough to change the fact that June sales declined by double-digit amounts – both MoM and YoY.

The low rates should keep us going through summer though!

Posted by on Jul 10, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

ASG Fan Fest

2016-07-08 17.26.20

The All-Star Game is a big deal.

We used to hold out hope that our teams would at least go to the playoffs occasionally; but how low are your expectations now?

The 2016 All-Star Game will probably be the biggest sporting event in San Diego for the next 10-20 years!  Until they come back!

Being a San Diego correspondent, it’s only right that I provide some coverage:

http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2017-chevrolet-corvette-grand-sport-photos-and-info-news

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Posted by on Jul 8, 2016 in Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor | 0 comments