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(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Most recent articles

The Bubble, Ten Years Later

The real estate market in our neighboring Orange County has performed much like San Diego’s. Here, Jon outlines the 12 differences between the bubble days of 2007, and now:

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/08/06/orange-countys-housing-bubble-10-years-later/

These stats show how the game has changed forever – there is no down side if banks are so reluctant to foreclose:

10. Distressed property: Too much debt and too many layoffs pushed many homeowners to the financial brink. Owners rushed to sell as bankers hit the market with their repossessed properties. In June 2007, 13 percent of homes sales were either short sales — banks agreeing to take less than owed — or sales of foreclosed properties. That distressed share of selling would become roughly half of the market during the next five years. But by June 2017, that share settled back to just 7 percent. Fortunately, it’s only a history lesson today. The supply of foreclosures to buy has shrunk from 463 in late June a decade ago to only 27 as this year’s summer began.

11: Warning signs: Nothing screams “danger” more than owners skipping house payments. Ponder what lenders were doing in June 2007 vs. this past June. Default notices, a first step in foreclosure: 1,144 then, 310 today. Auction notices, the official threat to sell: 598 then, 213 today. Actual foreclosures: 281 then (and 1,084 in June 2008) vs. 21 today.

For the bubble to ‘pop’, and prices decline, we would need more than a trickle of distressed sellers who need to sell at whatever price the market would bear.  A rash of boomer liquidations might happen, but with reverse mortgages being available, they have other options too.

All ahead full!

Posted by on Aug 6, 2017 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, CA Homeowners Bill of Rights, Foreclosure Count, Jim's Take on the Market, No-Foreclosure as Banking Policy | 2 comments

Material Prosperity

Robert Shiller, like many of us, realize how housing has taken a dramatic turn from providing basic shelter for most Americans into a game to be exploited by the rich – to the detriment of the less advantaged.

His latest article from yesterday’s newspaper:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/upshot/the-transformation-of-the-american-dream.html

What do Robert Shiller and Jim the Realtor have in common?

We’re going to be in a movie together!

Giorgio confirmed that the documentary film that has been in the works for the last four years will be ready in time to submit for Sundance 2018!

No one is getting their hopes up too high, considering that last year there were over 12,000 films submitted, and they only took about 1% of them. But if nothing else, we will at least have a screening of the movie here.

Here is the trailer one more time for the newcomers:

Cost per Square Foot is a documentary film project about the singular and perverse nature of the American housing economy. Though much has been written and filmed about the 2008 housing collapse, we seem to have failed to ask a fundamental question:

What is it that we are actually building?

This documentary attempts to answer that question. And in the process, it tell a larger story about housing in America that many people don’t know.

In the years since the US housing market became the epicenter of an unprecedented global economic collapse, protests in Baltimore, Ferguson, and Southside Chicago have highlighted the stark disparities of opportunity that define many American cities. These phenomena are not unrelated – they are divergent paths set in motion by postwar housing policy, a feat of social engineering that simultaneously created the world’s largest middle class, by directly subsidizing suburban development, while systematically depriving inner cities of resources and denying huge swaths of the US population the ability to build wealth through homeownership.

This was by design.

Cost per Square Foot is a historical road trip through the American housing landscape, in all its glory and all its blunder. The film invites viewers into a deeper conversation about our housing economy, one that addresses the fundamental issues of segregation, inequality, and financial instability. Through the stories of a retired NYC cop, a quietly socialist war bride, an aspiring Youtube star / realtor, and a young photographer whose photos of the Baltimore riots propel him into the national spotlight, Cost per Square Foot charts a course between the imagined wealth of seemingly endless “neo-taco-mediterranean special” suburban tract homes built atop razed orange groves, and the stark realities of life in many of America’s inner cities.

Posted by on Aug 5, 2017 in Bubbleinfo TV, Documentary Film, Jim's Take on the Market | 6 comments

$24,000,000

High-quality video with no talking, just eye candy:


This contemporary house overlooks the Santa Ynez Mountains and Toro Canyon Park in Santa Barbara County. The living room and kitchen share the same space, and glass sliders open up to outdoor sitting areas.

Perched high in the foothills of the Santa Ynez Mountains and surrounded by the peaceful sylvan setting that is Toro Canyon Park, this incomparable 40+/- acre estate seems a world away yet is mere minutes from all the wonderful amenities of nearby Montecito and Santa Barbara. The over 6000 sq. ft. main residence, its 2-bedroom guest house and multi-room cabaña were designed by award-winning architect Andy Neumann, and constructed to exacting detail and with use of the finest custom materials by master builders and craftspeople. A stunning example of Modernism, the structures combine functional minimalism with expanses of retractable and Vitrosca Invisible Wall glass; focusing attention on the surrounding natural spectacle. The dramatic walls of glass along with walnut floors and cabinetry, and freestanding walls of precisely cut native sandstone deliver instant notice that this is a very special home. There are rooms where those stone walls embrace tastefully embedded fireplaces that, in turn, cast playful reflections on the nearby glass. The finest modern amenities and details embellish the home and add to its aesthetic, practical, and romantic value. Many refer to this home as the most beautiful modern home, on the most beautiful lot, in all of Santa Barbara.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/(Undisclosed-Address)-Carpinteria-CA-93013/2094849563_zpid/

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Posted by on Aug 4, 2017 in Interesting Houses, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

Trader Joe’s & Starbucks

Here’s some food for thought.

Americans who own homes that are closer to a Trader Joe’s grocery store—as opposed to a Whole Foods or ALDI grocery store—saw higher home price appreciation, according to data from released this week from real estate analytics firm ATTOM Data Solutions. The study looked at 1,275 ZIP codes nationwide with a least one Whole Foods store, one Trader Joe’s store and one ALDI store.

Indeed, homeowners nearest to a Trader Joe’s have seen an average 5-year home price appreciation of 67%, compared to 52% appreciation for homeowners near a Whole Foods and 51% near an ALDI. Average appreciation for all ZIP codes with these grocery stores nationwide is 54%.

Plus, homeowners near a Trader Joe’s also have added equity, owning an average 36% equity in their homes ($232,439), compared to homeowners near Whole Foods, who had an average of 31% equity ($187,925) and homeowners near ALDI, who had an average 18% equity ($46,352). The average equity for all ZIP codes with these grocery stores nationwide is 24%.

While it’s not clear why exactly homeowners near a Trader Joe’s are coming out ahead here, it could be that, while Whole Foods tends to put its stores in more established, affluent neighborhoods, Trader Joes might pick trendier, a little-less-established ones, says Eric Zollinger, the director of sales for Manhattan development 196 Orchard, which is being sold by real estate firm Douglas Elliman and has an Equinox in the building. He notes that while established affluent neighborhoods have seen plenty of home price growth, those that are up-and-coming and super trendy sometimes see even faster home price appreciation.

Read more here:

http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/secret-making-money-real-estate-may-buying-home-near-grocery-store-chain/

 

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Posted by on Aug 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Tips, Advice & Links | 3 comments

10% Risk of Correction in U.S.

New research from JPMorgan examining historic data found that the risk of a dramatic decline in prices is low, despite current fears of a correction in the U.S. and Canada.

Using data from 14 developed countries dating back to 1950, JPMorgan’s research found that sharp price corrections have been relatively uncommon, even following large price increases.

“The data show that sustained increases in real house prices have been the norm rather than the exception in the post-World War II era, as rising populations and incomes have pushed up land prices,” Jesse Edgerton, U.S. analyst from the investment bank’s economic and policy research team, said in the report entitled “Quantifying housing correction risk in Canada and the U.S.,” published late Tuesday.

“Of course, there have been occasional large price declines over multi-year periods, as we saw starting in 2006 in the U.S. But such declines have not been common, even after periods of rising prices,” he said, adding that the chance of a decline in prices was low.

“Simple models based on these data put the chance of a 20 percent decline in real prices within the next five years (roughly equivalent to a 10 percent decline in nominal prices) at about 20 percent in Canada and 10 percent in the U.S.

Read full article here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/jpmorgan-points-to-low-risk-of-a-us-housing-correction.html

Posted by on Aug 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 0 comments

Bubbleinfo on Facebook Live

My first attempt at Facebook Live, with no warm-up.

I’ll hold the phone horizontally next time, and shoot the video out the back of the phone because this view is reversed (be patient, it rolls out slowly here):

Jim the Realtor on market conditions

Posted by bubbleinfo.com on Thursday, August 3, 2017

If you want to follow, here is the link to the Bubbleinfo Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/bubbleinfo/

Posted by on Aug 3, 2017 in Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, One-Story, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, View, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments