bubbleinfo.com

I couldn't resist pointing out this statistical oddity among the four foreclosure agents we've been following:

Jun 11 - 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 - 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 - 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 - 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 - 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 - 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 - 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 - 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 - 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 - 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

June 27 - 261 Actives/261 Pendings = 1.00

The dramatic drop in active listings is surprising, given the foreclosure news.  Either the new inventory is being spread around to more agents (finally!) or are the banks holding them back? 

There is an additional category in the new MLS system, Tempo -5, that asks if the listing is an REO.  There are only 323 active listings and 176 pendings marked as REOs in SD County for both detached and attached, so the agents inputting their listings haven't found and utilized the new category yet.

We've been following the same four realtors who specialize in REO sales - here's an update on their sales of houses and condos:

Jun 11 - 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 - 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 - 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 - 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 - 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 - 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 - 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 - 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 - 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

June 10 - 344 Actives/288 Pendings = 1.19

The same four agents have closed 624 transactions year-to-date. 

(They closed 763 in 2007)

Their active inventory has dropped considerably, but that could be due to the MLS debacle as much as anything.  But it wouldn't surprise me to see the REO market grind to a halt.  All participants must be beyond peak capacity, and until servicers are willing to hire more people or streamline the process, I don't think we'll see additional production - these agents are already looking at doubling their closings this year compared to 2007.

How are the foreclosure agents doing?

Buyers prefer "bank deals", and apparently the lenders are getting the price right! 

We've been following the same four realtors who specialize in REO sales - here's an update on their sales of houses and condos:

Jun 11 - 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 - 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 - 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 - 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 - 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 - 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 - 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 - 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

May 13 - 418 Actives/298 Pendings = 1.40

The same four agents have closed 487 transactions year-to-date. 

(They closed 763 in 2007)

The averages, based on year-to-date/since April 1st:

1,532 sf/1,541 sf

$337,913/$323,973 average sale price

$220.57 per sf/$210.24 per sf

94 days/80 days on market

Every notch downward, the market picks up a little more steam.

How are the foreclosure agents doing?

Everybody wants to get a bank deal, and the banks keep unloading!

Jun 11 - 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 - 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 - 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 -  486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 - 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 - 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 - 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 -   482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 - 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Apr 18 - 467 Actives/247 Pendings = 1.89

A ratio under 2.00 is very healthy - they are pricing them to sell!  The same four agents have closed 384 sales year-to-date, after closing a total of 763 in 2007. 

This year 11% of the closings have been over $500,000.  There were 18% above $500,000 in 2007.

Take a look at the 'San Diego County REOs' button in the right-hand column - it was updated today. The last three weeks totals have been less than half the size of recent weeks.

The signs of improving activity can be seen in the statistics of the foreclosure agents we've been following - the banks are leading the market:

Jun 11 - 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 - 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 - 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 - 486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 - 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 - 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 - 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 - 482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

Mar 13 - 477 Actives/205 Pendings = 2.33

Getting close to a 2 to 1 ratio of actives to pendings must mean that the buyers are satisfied with their pricing - and when they're not, the banks keep lowering.  It's more proof that if sellers can just get the price right (meaning low enough), there are buying waiting.

Here are the averages on their 236 closed sales in 2008:

SP: $326,854

SP:LP ratio = 96.9%

1,457 sf

107 days on market

91% of the sales were under $500,000