Friday, May 9, 2008 at 05:31AM
Creeping Up the Ladder
We know there are thousands of foreclosures in the tougher parts of town - how are the better areas doing? The action is subtle and slow-moving, but it sure seems like there are more homes having trouble in better areas.
Here are some examples of homes at or near their Trustee Sale date:
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7771 Pendon
3 br/2 ba, 2,195 sf
$21,000 SP 3/76
$692,243 Min Bid
$479,000 LP guess
YB: 1976 HOA = 0 MR = 0
Trustee Sale date: 5/1/08
This is probably one of the houses that CA renter has mentioned to be an eye sore in a great area of Old La Costa. There are a number of examples throughout the older parts of Carlsbad where you see houses in complete disrepair right along side others that are very well-maintained. I have seen many where the kids move back in with their parents and milk it until the end. Not sure what happened here, but the original roof and trailer in the driveway suggest that pride of ownership passed this one by.
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3500 Levee, Carlsbad
4 br/2.5 ba, 2,462 sf
$633,000 SP 12/03
$527,047 Min Bid
$599,000 LP guess
YB: 1999 HOA = 81, MR = 68
Trustee Sale date: 6/23/08
A standard tract house with a pool in Calaveras Hills in NE Carlsbad, the leading area in town for "pricing correction". They had been trying to sell in the high-$700,000s for the last 14 months, but no luck. I just closed a bigger one nearby today for $599,000 - hence my guess at the list price. But Countrywide has a second loan of $168,706 on top of the $527,047, so they may end up trying higher?
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3456 Corte Selva, Carlsbad
4 br/3.5 ba, 3,263 sf
$823,000 SP 8/05 (new)
$774,297 Min Bid
$799,000 LP guess
YB: 2005, HOA = 232 MR = 67
Trustee Sale date: 4/17/08
A common occurance here - regular folks buying a home leveraged to the hilt, then refinanced a couple of times to keep afloat, enjoy the free rent, and lose it eventually. They did try to sell it, listing for $1.125 million, and coming down to $870,000 before cancelling three weeks ago.
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4344 Corte Al Fresco, Carmel Valley
4 br/2.5 ba, 2,555 sf
$980,000 SP 8/05
$828,873 Min Bid
$849,000 LP guess
YB: 1992, HOA = 0, MR = $85
Trustee Sale date: 4/21/08
This will be an interesting test - Navy Federal has a second loan of $100,000. Do they come in and cure the first to see if they can recoup some or all of their balance? They are probably seeing the potential value at $850,000 to $900,000 - do they take a chance to make a couple of bucks, risking more loss if it doesn't work?
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2575 Arundel, Carlsbad
5 br/4.5 ba, 4,608 sf
$1,151,000 SP 12/05
$1,073,432 Min Bid
$995,000 LP guess
YB: 2006, HOA = $193 MR = $200
Trustee sale date: 4/23/08
This will probably be the beginning of the end for Bressi Ranch - once a big bomber slides under $1 million, it'll be hard for anyone else to get above that.
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17165 San Antonio Rose (in the Crosby)
4 br/4.5 ba, 3,704 sf
$1,331,500 SP 3/07
$1,128,063 Min Bid
$1,095,000 LP guess
YB: 2005, HOA = $492 MR = $623
Trustee Sale date: 5/19/08
Not sure if payments were ever made on this one, if so, not more than one. The house next door, also a foreclosure, just sold for $1,062,500 last week.
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3953 Stonebridge, Rancho Santa Fe
5 br/4.5 ba, 5,336 sf
$1,825,000 SP 8/03
$1,254,854 Min Bid
$1,995,000 LP guess
YB: 1991, HOA = $143 MR = 0
Trustee sale date: 5/12/08
Hard to believe that these owners haven't tried to sell this Meditteranean villa on 2.86 acres - if it goes to sale they will have left over a half million on the table.
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6108 Rancho Diegueno, RSF
5 br/6.5 ba, 10,475 sf
$3,500,000 SP 11/02
$717,771 Min Bid (2nd loan)
$3,995,000 LP guess
YB: 2001, HOA = $200 MR = 0
Trustee Sale date: 5/22/08
There is a first mortgage of $2,275,000 that hasn't filed a NOD, so maybe the owners are just trying to re-negotiate their second mortgage - they have until Thursday to figure it out. The value on this one isn't that obvious. It should look like a steal for $4 million considering that there are three active listings on the street ranging from $7,875,000 to $15,988,000. But the competing listings do have the obligatory tennis courts and ocean views, but I think if you could get this for less than $4 million, you might be able to find a way to live without a tennis court - or just use your neighbor's?
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Interested in a foreclosure? Let me know! jim@jimklinge.com
Jim the Realtor
in Thinking of Buying?, REOs Coming to Market
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Reader Comments (22)
This seems like a better deal to me:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3020-Via-Conquistador-92009/home/6296130
These places are getting dangerously close to my price range. I'm still not gonna pull the trigger for another couple of years; I'm keeping my bear face on for now.
Not for me, though the $200/sf is attractive.
The micro-size backyard and San Marcos schools limit the future potential. Don't be surprised if it hangs around a while.
Ward posted foreclosure statistics for April a couple of days ago.
Ward's stats
Another record month for both NODs and trustee sales. This means that the best foreclosure deals are still coming...
Genius,
Wait until that one gets back to its 705K 2002 price, it is only down a little over 30% from its 2005 price....
Date Price Appreciation
Mar 28, 2002 $705,000 --
Jul 30, 2003 $781,000 7.9%/yr
Jun 20, 2005 $1,200,000 25.5%/yr
Thanks for the input Jim, and good lookin' out SMC. I live up in West LA and don't spend a whole lot of time in SD so I'm not very familiar with areas other than Del Mar and La Jolla. I'm still willing to bet that San Marcos schools trounce LA unified, but I appreciate the heads up.
FWIW I still think massive declines are headed our way; greenlander's post is one of the big reasons. By the time they hit, maybe my gf and me will be engaged, thus doubling our [income and] home buying potential ;)
Here they come . . .
This was left tonight on a previous post:
mike commented on REOs Coming to Market:
Jim,
The home in Hanover on Windvane went on the market this week for 917K. Explain to me why, if the NOTS was for 877K, why would you guess the LP at 829K?
Thanks.
Thank you Mike for asking. I did drive by this one before commenting on it a couple of weeks ago, and it backs right onto Poinsettia, a four-lane road that intersects with I-5 one block away. The agent includes the ocean view photo, but I think the day is gone where people will pay a premium to turn their head from the upstairs window to see a glimpse of ocean overlooking a busy, noisy street.
There was nothing appealing about it when I drove by, but because it had never been on the open market before, I hadn't seen the interior. The agent's photos make it look pretty nice inside, with hardwood floors, etc. Will it be enough to get one buyer to overlook the busy street about 10-20 feet away? Maybe.
There hasn't been a resale lately that backs to Poinsettia, so it's hard to say if buyers will treat it as a negative, like I'm suggesting. I know that last year 7-8 sales closed on the other two streets from $998,000 and up, but 2007 is ancient history, if you ask me.
There haven't been any closed sales in Hanover this year, but a 2,387 sf house is pending, listed for $995,000 - they got lucky. Look at the other six active listings, all wishing for $1M+, and they aren't getting it this year. If you go over to Poinsettia Cove the most recent sale was 6878 Tradewinds, a 2,033 sf home that closed for $850,000.
I figured Windvane for an inferior property, and those are the ones taking the big hits now. I'll stick with my low-$800,000s price, because the bank won't let it sit there for months if it doesn't sell, and this market is going to be toast by July 1st.
To answer you question specifically, I guessed that the bank might factor in the difficulties of selling this property, and go lower to spark some urgency. The $917,000 is still lower than others listed, and the interior is better then expected, but I'm not sure it's enough. If there are waiting buyers for Hanover that just want to buy the cheapest, it could sell for $900,000+. It'll be an interesting test of the market.
Speaking of the high end, here is a 2.65 million "AS IS" home.
It is uncompleted construction of 7326 sq ft house in Poway. Based on other finished homes that are in this area I would have to say it is overpriced.
Link.
That's a good one Dave. I've seen it and it's a little short of completion - it looked to be about half done. I guess they're just figuring a cash buyer will come along, because there is no way you could get a regular mortgage on it.
He's got $2.5m in loans - it's just waiting in line for the slaughterhouse, er, I mean REOhouse.
An update on the Stonebridge house above.
The current owner has sucked his equity out already. It has two loans showing on the tax rolls, both around $1.25 million. I was thinking that the second was a refi of the first, but it is not.
There is a second loan for $1,250,000 on top of the foreclosing first of $1,254,854. If the second loan holder shows up with a boatload of money down at the courthouse on Monday, it'll take the wind out of the sails - I'm figuring the retail value to be around $2.5 million.
But if he doesn't show, somebody is going to get a great deal....
from cnbc.com
"An estimated 9 million American households, or 10.3 percent of all single-family homes, owe more than their home is worth, according to Moody’s Economy.com. By comparison, 4.8 percent of home loans were in foreclosure or delinquent by 60 days or more at the end of last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association."
"In an attempt to reduce the incentive to default, Fannie Mae recently increased to five years, from four years, the time borrowers have to wait after a foreclosure to get another Fannie Mae loan. The company will make exceptions under extenuating circumstances."
The first house listed in Carlsbad seems like it would be a great deal at 479,000. From the map it looked like it was on a cul de sac.
Jim, that horse left the barn a long time ago. None of these people care about 4 years versus 5 for a conforming loan qualification. Besides, their entire financial life is nothing but a string of delayed consequences and forgiveness.
This whole housing bubble has given me the feeling that some of these people (Fannie Mae, Fed. Reserve, etc.) are on a different planet, possibly one in a different galaxy. Apparently they think the conversation around the breakfast table goes like this:
"John, I just don't see how we can stay in the house. We got three more calls from collection agencies yesterday, all the credit cards are maxed out, and Dr. Johnson said little Timmy needs braces. The notice that was stapled to our door said we'd have to come up with $18,000 in 30 days. We only have the one car now, and you need it to get to work. What else can we do?"
"Don't be silly, Jane. If we go into foreclosure now, we won't be able to apply for a new home loan for FIVE years, not just FOUR! Unless we fill out form 1025-K to request an exemption. I'm just not willing to face that!"
LOL
Will Fannie and Freddie even exist in their present forms in 4 to 5 years? 83 million in capital against 5 trillion in debt.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/business/06fannie-web.html?pagewanted=1&_r=4&ref=business
I for one would not mind if Fannie and Freddie were broken up into at least 7 or 8 different companies and forced to compete with one another and make clear there will be no government bailout.
Re: the Stonebridge house
So Jim what strategy would you play on a house like this?
Go down to the courthouse with a 1.5 million cashier's check (or do you need 2.5?), hope the owner or the 2nd loan owner doesn't show up, place the bid, and score a nice house on the cheap? If either of them show up, drop the idea or bid them out up to 1.5?
Sounds great. How do you go about kicking the owner out? Who does that for you? Seems like a scenario like this leads to a former owner harassing you or at least causing some damage on the way out.
Jim,
RE:2575 Arundel, your est. LP would be $215/psf. That seems VERY low for 92009 and over 4000sf. Everything I can see that has closed recently in that zip (according to sdlookup.com) in that size has been from around 230-280 with the exception of two on Sitio Caballero. How nice are the finishes in the Arundel house--would they be comparable to the other recent solds, or am I comparing big apples to big oranges?
And you're right, a big Bressi house under a million is going to make a LOT of people swoon--especially Barratt, I'd guess. I count 26 homes for sale in Bressi now and 15 are currently over $1M and 12 of them are at least 3500 sqft, most of the 12 are over 4000....
The one is RSF, even zillow has it estimated for $3.77...
Sucker Rally in 5,4,3,2,1 Blast OFF!
More Re: 3953 Stonebridge
According to http://www.fidelityasap.com/ the foreclosure was "Cancelled on 05/01/2008". So it would seem that the owner got his/her arrears in order.
My guess on Stonebridge was that the second loan holder must have made a deal at the last minute with the first lender. There's no way he wanted to see that go to auction and risk having to come up with the $1.254 million to pay off the first, and bid against others who were willing to go higher.
If this trustee sale would have went off, it would have been a freak show, and easily gotten up into the mid-$1 millions.
Arundel/Bressi Ranch
Unfortunately for the homeowners in Bressi, Jenae has already made their bed.
1. She pushed people's expectations by selling three in there at inflated prices. Now everyone thinks their house is worth $1.2-something.
2. Now she is back short-selling her victims. The former model home on Lismore will probably close around $875,000, after she sold it to her victim for $1.35 million one year ago.