bubbleinfo.com

Hat tip to the Coronado Kid for sending this 2010 summary from The Apple, Peeled:

BUYERS – Top 7 Lessons of 2010:

1.     Bears will always be bears: Many bearish voices in 2009 were calling for the NY Real Estate market to fall off a cliff … at the very least for prices to drop another 20%.  In 2010, feverish discussions continued on StreetEasy and Urban Digs, making the case that the downturn seen to date was only the beginning.  And yet few could argue that things have not at least stabilized, if not improved, as compared to 2009 – some may even call it having formed a bottom.

2.     Deep discounts are so 2009: No longer could buyers negotiate 10-15% off asking prices.  Buyers felt a sense of disbelief in having to often pay full ask, sometimes even engaging in bidding wars in what they thought was a buyer’s market.  This was the result of too many would-be-buyers chasing too few properties.  Good inventory was hard to find in 2010.

3.     A deal is not a deal until a signed contract’s in place:  Although a very questionable strategy, to be sure, this year was the year of multiple contracts being sent out by sellers to hedge their bets after hearing of so many deals that fell apart due to financing issues.

4.     Parallel offers help avoid attachment: Frustration rose for many buyers who had accepted offers on the table, only to then find out the seller reneged and sold the apartment to someone else.  In turn, buyers began negotiating in parallel to avoid putting all of their eggs in one basket.

5.     New developments come with their own headaches: It used to be that buying new meant buying better quality than an older building would offer, saving you money by not having to fix the apartment’s infrastructure or renovate its looks.  Yet many new buildings drew a flurry of lawsuits due to shoddy construction and cut corners.  It paid to do your own due diligence about the developer and the building’s reputation.

6.     Easy money is dead: Getting qualified for a loan became the biggest obstacle to getting a deal done in 2010.  Buyers had to have great credit, great debt-to-income ratios and click their heels three times while repeating “there’s no place like home” to get a mortgage.  (Even then, signing a contract without a mortgage contingency was akin so Russian Roulette.) If they looked to get a Jumbo mortgage, then they had to throw in a sacrifice to the mortgage gods to make the mortgage go through.

7.     Technology rules (to a point): So many buyers leveraged the internet and its real estate advances this year.  They became expert at finding the right properties, researching them, comparing them, and using the information at their fingertips to fuel their negotiation strategies.  The frustration kicked in when sellers budged no more and buyers realized that real estate is not such an efficient market, neither on the buy nor sell side of the equation.

SELLERS – Top 7 Lessons of 2010

1.  New York is not Miami: We’ve all heard it so many times, perhaps it’s even escaped your own lips at some point: “But New York is different!”.  The country underwent the most significant downturn in our generation, middle-America is suffering, housing prices are down north of 50% in some areas of the country and unemployment hovers around the double digit barrier … and the worst that the NY Real Estate market could do was down 20-25% on average from its 2006 peak?  Yes, the higher the pricepoint, the more significant the down-turn, but … one must admit, it’s still damn impressive!

2.  Renovations sell, fixer uppers don’t:  2010 was the year of the first-time home buyer and of the turn-key purchaser.  This means that newly renovated properties sold faster than ever before, particularly now that buyers no longer had access to home equity lines of credit to use towards fixing an older property.  Those who chose to buy wanted to a prêt-a-vivre home, ready to live in from the start.

3.  Proper pricing is so now:  Sellers who tried to “test the market”, hoping for that one special buyer who would happen to give them their high asking price saw themselves on the market for a loooooong time.  Then the enemy became time on market, with buyers neglecting price-improved properties out of the skepticism that comes along considering a stale listing.

4.  Renting is a real option:  With the rental market making a real comeback this year, many sellers on the fence of parting with their properties found it lucrative to rent.  Inventory was slim and having a tenant in place for 1-2 years to ride out the storm paid off.

5.  Cash is still king:  With the turbulence felt in the credit markets, sellers had to contend with the very real tradeoff between accepting an ok all-cash offer and a higher, mortgage contingent one.  Many chose cash, over bearing the risk of the deal falling through after months of buyers slugging it out with their bank.

6.  Appraisals matter:  Just because you were lucky enough to get the price you wanted for your apartment, it didn’t mean the negotiations were done.  Appraisals became the Achilles’ heel of the industry as they seemed to consistently come in below the contract-signed price, throwing a wrench in the whole process.  Appraisals became commoditized and many began criticizing the process, now driven by volume versus quality and experience.

7.  Your building has its own credit rating:  Many sellers felt stranded by the inability of their buildings to get approved for financing, an issue that often popped up at the tail end of the entire process.  After going through the motions of putting the property up for sale, negotiating the price, and moving towards a close, many owners in land-lease buildings, or those with too great a concentration of rental units or owners found themselves having to rationalize staying in their home.

I am eagerly anticipating the new year because of the challenge of trying to beat 2009, the greatest year a guy could have!

On February 25, 2009, I spent the afternoon with Peter Y. Hong from the L.A. Times – it would be a day that changed my life forever.  Here’s how it started:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/02/26/the-good-old-days/

Peter somehow crafted our conversation into a story that was published April 2nd on the front page of the newspaper, right under the photo of the Obamas meeting Queen Elizabeth II for the first time. 

By 7 am my phone was ringing off the hook, and for months I received well-wishes from people all around the world, from Japan to England.

One of the first callers was Matt Stuart, from ABC News Nightline, which catalputed my 15 minutes of fame into warp speed.  I spent a day and a half with him and Vicki Mabrey, and on April 16th, this aired on national television:

Thank you Peter, Matt, and Vicki!!

With the generous support of blog readers here, I was determined to stay in the game, and be true to what got me here - bringing transparency to the pertinent facts about our local real estate market.  Today, I am fulfilled that together we have done just that!

I am eternally grateful for the support from:

The folks who have become clients as a result of what they have seen here!

The well-wishers!

Readers who comment – thank you for adding depth and breadth to the experience.

Readers who don’t comment – I know you are there, thanks for being here!

The 14 people of Klinge Realty.

My family and friends.

Donna, my dearly-beloved wife, and our two kids – I love my life!

I didn’t run these numbers until this morning, and had to rub my eyes for a minute in disbelief – I am humbled to report:

2009 statistics:

Bubbleinfo posts: 671 

Unique visitors:  167,906

Visits:  738,965

Pageviews:  1,376,283

Avg. time on site:  3:02

Youtube videos:  252

Youtube channel views:  818,678

The numbers are mind-boggling – thank you everyone for your participation!

The Best of Bubbleinfo.com in 2008:

January – We documented the Adams St. property, and it’s kooky owner. She repeatedly refinanced her mom’s house, and then stopped making payments and kept suing the lenders for ‘elder abuse’. The funniest part was that in May the owner found us talking about her, and left her own response at the bottom of the comments:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/01/stolen-equity/

Her trustee sale is scheduled for next month.

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February – This month we first noted the new homes built on the corner of Carlsbad Village and Highland. When they hit the open market in June, 2006, the list prices were up to $1.499 million. By February they were down to $1.199 million and still didn’t have any takers, so they attempted to rent them out instead, asking $3,695/mo.

By the end of 2008, under a court order, they were listed in the mid-$800,000s for two weeks, and then withdrew them from the MLS. None marked pending.

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March – We saw a superior property in ‘The Ranch’ in Carlsbad get snapped up for cash at the trustee sale, and at the time I thought it was a great deal. The buyer still owns it (not a flipper!).

Here’s the post:

This will go down as one of the better deals of the year – the trustee sale was yesterday for this property at 7951 Sitio Solana in the Ranch development in Carlsbad. Though it was mentioned here and on several foreclosure sites, only one bidder showed up at the trustee sale – and bought it for the minimum bid of $941,426. There hasn’t been a sale that low for a house of that size, 3,654 sf, in the Ranch since 2000-2001. The person who got foreclosed was the original owner who paid $746,000 in January, 1999. The floor plan has the master suite on the first floor, and this premium location on a quiet culdesac made it a superior property – the type to keep an eye out for when looking for a house!

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April – The REO journey began on April 22nd, when Countrywide sent me the first eight listings. We’ve since closed 18 of them for a total of $4,532,800. It doesn’t look like it’s going to continue for much longer under the current format, now that Bank of America has taken over. But my wife did get me to admit that it was fun while it lasted – and they provided great blog material!

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May – We saw HaCanada win tickets to the U.S. Open for guessing the closest to the 2,950 detached closed sales in 1Q08 in SD County.

Since then, another 19 sales were added by late-reporters, making the total 2,969 today. Jenny in SD, with her guess of 2,971, should have been the winner.

Jenny, want some Padres tickets?

The first REO video appeared in May too:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neY1P7UvNHw

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June – We came across the Alt-A map from the New York Fed – here is November’s report:

Currently the darkest zip code in North County Coastal is 92078 – don’t be surprised if we see more bad news for San Elijo Hills in 2009.

For easier reading, here is the link to the NY Fed reports:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

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July – We had out first video encounter with an ice cream truck – in downtown Vista where you got to see the bubbleinfo vehicle of choice, the 1966 Chevy 3/4-ton Stepside:

(This video has been seen 7,683 times!)

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August – There were a few professional flippers mentioned this month who purchased properties at the trustee sales, how did they do?

All four sold and did well:

9745 Tallus Glen, SD - bought for $444,125, closed for $525,000 a month later.

602 Strand, Carlsbad – bought for $570,200, closed for $775,000 cash three months later.

976 Whimbrel, Carlsbad – bought for $636,231, sold for $757,000 two months later.

1738 Village Run, Encinitas – bought for $51,173 (assumed $305,000 too), sold for $470,000.

We considered this builder as a professional seller too:

Mustang Ridge – Even though it looks like the loans are around $1.35 million, it’s still unsold and proudly listed at $1.765 million. NOD filed last month.

La Costa Oaks – There was also the 4,190sf one-story house at the top of the hill. The original owners paid $1.755 million in December, 2004, but got foreclosed. I thought the list price would be around $1.395 once the bank listed, but they came in at an aggressive $1.245 million. It closed for $1.2 million cash.

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September – My first arrests of squatters in an REO:

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October – People asked about where to find auction news, so I listed all the places:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/10/san-diego-auction-news/

My only solo attempt at blogtalkradio hit a snag, but looking forward to more next year!

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November – We started a new contest, guessing the number of closed sales in November and December of homes in SD County. Today’s count is 4,509, which means 1,000+ closed in the last seven business days, and should leave us around 5,000 by the time we take the final tally on January 20th (allowing for late-reporters).

Here are the contestants in that range:

4,538 JbirdFunk
4,550 OCVulture
4,609 Just a Broker
4,737 Lisa in OC
4,872 Stephen Waits
4,874 FirstTimeRenter
4,949 Erica Douglass
5,000 CVman
5,021 Rob Dawg
5,150 Angela
5,259 Turnack
5,271 Westparker
5,555 Mojo

Here are the last few Nov & Dec combos:

2007 = 3,254
2006 = 4,726
2005 = 5,603
2004 = 6,464
2003 = 6,988

To see this year’s sales end up higher than 2006 will be very impressive, and means that prices must have come down enough, rates are low enough, and loans are easy enough to get, that people are buying!

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December – We gave the Obama team the following advice on housing:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/12/free-advice/

A discussion on the merits of Proposition 13 generated 101 comments:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/12/prop-13-redo/

and in general we saw government bailout programs flail about, conforming mortgage rates plummet to under 6%, and renewed interest in buying real estate.

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I think Obama is going to step up to the microphone and tell people to go buy a house – and it’ll work, in concert with lower prices and rates. 2009 will be a very active year!

But 2009 will have to be hopping at bubbleinfo.com to keep up with 2008′s numbers:

570 posts, thousands of comments, and 57 youtube videos!

WOW – WHAT A YEAR!

Thank you to everyone for reading and participating!

Jim Klinge, Realtor and part-time blogger

The favorite videos:

The house with linoleum on the ceiling and a regular stop for ice cream trucks:

Sound of the Year (hat tip to RT whose constant encouragement has been invaluable – thanks!)

Bubba’s Freak Circus:

The Valley Center bomber (has 7,145 views in first week!)

The Poway fixer that re-listed this week with a different agent but same price:

The ‘Toboggan Stopper’

Jessica’s Ice Cream truck – seen a few times since around town:

“Backs to open space” – The sewage plant is only in the planning stages.

“Charming” – About the size of a large storage shed. (see synonyms such as cute, quaint, cozy, etc)

“Cream puff” – Price is puffed up to cream the buyer.

“Duplicate listing” – another company has the same model listed down the street for less.

“Easy commute to everywhere” – Everywhere?

“Easy to show” – But hard to sell.

“Eat in kitchen” – Must hover over the stove and eat out of the pan.

“Fixer-upper” – Some agents bite their upper lip when they show it.

“Freshly painted inside” – Had to paint over leak stains.

“Great access” – House backs to freeway & is next to entrance ramp.

“Great price for the area” – Way too great.

“Highly sought after area” – Police seek often.

“Mint condition” – Need a mint to be in condition to buy it.

“Must see to believe” – You’ll say that about the price when you view it.

“Panoramic views” – Somewhere on the panorama you can catch a glimpse of the top of the hill between the houses across the street and above the shopping center.

“Priced to sell” – Sometime in the next 50 years.

“Original owner” – Owner has great pride in the original colors such as avocado green and harvest gold.

“Pride of ownership” – Owner mows the lawn occasionally

“Rents under market value” – Ever seen one rent over market value?

“Starter home” – Start cleaning, start repairing, start your therapy for claustrophobia.

“Updated” – Painted the dark cabinets white.

“Well maintained” – Sellers motivated because of the need for constant maintenance.