Menu
TwitterRssFacebook
More Links

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘The Future’

The Transparency Crossroads?

Our Zillow rep mentioned that they are investing heavily into virtual reality. (He’s reading the blog now – hey Jason!)

I’m a big proponent of video tours – there is no better way to help remind buyers of what they are thinking of purchasing.  We have seen the 3D tours hit the mainstream, and the virtual reality experience can’t be far behind.

Will we see an evolution of how homes are sold?

For that to happen, we would need a sea change in the realtor community.

Currently, the whole real estate industry is focused on representing sellers, and making buyers comply with their every wish.  There would need to be a buyer revolution for it to change.

I’ve already had sellers object to their home being so transparent. They don’t want buyers to see every nook and cranny, especially if their house is less than perfect.

While the virtual reality devices may provide some whiz-bang effect, don’t be surprised if they are slow to take hold.  Sellers and listing agents would rather tempt you with a select group of photos, and disappoint you with the truth once you arrive.

Zillow and others will push the virtual reality toys, and try to convince buyers that those who possess them are superior agents. But there won’t be widespread use, and it will end up just being another gimmick.

Posted by on Apr 17, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, The Future, Zillow | 0 comments

The Millennials’ Housing Disadvantage

Everything about the real estate market favors those who got in years ago (location, zoning, traffic, property taxes, etc.).  Today’s desperate search for reasonably-priced housing is futile at best, and invites table-tilting by all involved. The rich get richer! Hat tip to Bill W:

LINK

Excerpt:

The problems facing millennials include an economy where job growth has been largely in service and part-time employment, producing lower incomes; the Census bureau estimates they earn, even with a full-time job, $2,000 less in real dollars than the same age group made in 1980. More millennials, notes a recent White House report, face far longer period of unemployment and suffer low rates of labor participation. More than 20 percent of people 18 to 34 live in poverty, up from 14 percent in 1980.

They are also saddled with ever more college debt, with around half of students borrowing for their education during the 2013-14 school year, up from around 30 percent in the mid-1990s.

All this at a time when the returns on education seem to be dropping: A millennial with both a college degree and college debt, according to a recent analysis of Federal Reserve data, earns about the same as a boomer without a degree did at the same age.

Downward mobility, for now at least, is increasingly rife. Stanford economist Raj Chatty finds that someone born in 1940 had a 92 percent chance of earning more than their parents; a boomer born in 1950 had a 79 percent chance of earning more than their parents. Those born in 1980, in contrast, have just a 46 percent chance.

Since 2004, homeownership rates for people under 35 have dropped by 21 percent, easily outpacing the 15 percent fall among those 35 to 44; the boomers’ rate remained largely unchanged.

In some markets, high rents and weak millennial incomes make it all but impossible to raise a down payment. According to Zillow, for workers between 22 and 34, rent costs now claim upward of 45 percent of income in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, and Miami, compared to less than 30 percent of income in metropolitan areas like Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston.

The costs of purchasing a house are even more lopsided: In Los Angeles and the Bay Area, a monthly mortgage takes, on average, close to 40 percent of income, compared to 15 percent nationally.

Home ownership rates in California are among the nation’s lowest, with Los Angeles-Orange having the lowest rate of the nation’s 75 large metropolitan areas. For every two homebuyers who come to the state, five families leave, notes the research firm Core Logic.

Like medieval serfs in pre-industrial Europe, America’s new generation, particularly in its alpha cities, seems increasingly destined to spend their lives paying off their overlords, and having little to show for it.

No wonder that rather than strike out on their own, many millennials are simply failing to launch, with record numbers hunkering down in their parents’ homes. Since 2000, the numbers of people aged 18 to 34 living at home has shot up by over 5 million.

Home ownership rates in California are among the nation’s lowest, with Los Angeles-Orange having the lowest rate of the nation’s 75 large metropolitan areas. For every two homebuyers who come to the state, five families leave, notes the research firm Core Logic.

The irony is that the state’s progressive policies are contributing  to a less mobile society and a potential demographic crisis. For one thing, fewer young people can form families—Los Angeles-Orange had one of the biggest drops in the child population of any of the 53 largest metros from 2010 to 2015.

This also has a racial component, as homeownership rates African American and Latino households—which often lack access to family wealth—have dropped far more precipitously than those of non-Hispanic Whites or Asians. Hispanics, accounting for 42 percent of all California millennials, endure homeownership roughly half that seen in other parts of the country.

This is not the planners’ happy future of density dwelling, transit-riding millennials but a present of overcrowding, the nation’s highest level of poverty and, inevitably, a continued drop in fertility in comparison to less regulated, and less costly, states such as Utah, Texas, and Tennessee that have been among those with the biggest surges in millennial migration.

Once identified with youth, California’s urban areas are now experiencing a significant decline in both their millennial and Xer populations. By the 2030s, large swaths of the state—particularly along the coast—could become geriatric belts, with an affluent older boomer population served by a largely minority servant class. How feudal!

Read full article here:

LINK

Save

Posted by on Mar 12, 2017 in Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Local Government, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, The Future | 3 comments

3D Printing of Homes

The building of homes is getting cheaper every year – this cost $10,134.  Isn’t it inevitable that someone will build a whole community of these?

http://newatlas.com/apis-cor-3d-printed-tiny-house/48231/

Though 3D-printed architecture is still in its relative infancy, we’re already at the point that printing a basic house is feasible. 3D-printing firm Apis Cor, in collaboration with development firm PIK, recently showed off the portable 3D printer it has developed by using it to build a basic structure of a 38-sq-m (409-sq-ft) home.

The actual printing process took 24 hours and is very similar to the other 3D-printed architecture projects we’ve reported on. Put simply, the 3D printer, which looks like a small crane, extrudes cement out of a nozzle in layer after layer to create a structure.

The machine didn’t do all the work, though. The roof, insulation, windows, and other components were all added later by humans. The total cost for the project came in at just US$10,134, not including furniture or appliances.

Posted by on Mar 6, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Real Estate Investing, The Future | 3 comments

Zillow Dominance

It is Zillow and their high-spending agents vs. everyone else now.

http://www.investors.com/research/the-new-america/zillow-starts-bidding-war-for-prime-real-estate-between-agents/

Zillow has a strategy to help accelerate the real estate industry’s evolution to the survival of the fittest. Zillow is looking to help the best real estate agents — the ones who can best capitalize on the leads that Zillow generates and will therefore pay the highest ad prices — to extend their domination.

“We are accelerating the broader trend across the real estate agent population of higher-producing agents gaining market share from those who are less productive,” Chief Executive Spencer Rascoff said on a November conference call with analysts.

The number of agents advertising on Zillow declined modestly in the third quarter to 89,147, but that was part of a planned shakeout. At the same time, the number of advertisers spending at least $5,000 per month rose 79% from a year ago, while average spending per agent rose 46%.

Read full article here:

http://www.investors.com/research/the-new-america/zillow-starts-bidding-war-for-prime-real-estate-between-agents/

Posted by on Feb 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, The Future, Zillow | 2 comments

Smart Growth

Those who want to get involved in smart growth/affordable-housing issues can attend the San Diego City council meeting today at 2:00pm.  The City Council members have submitted ideas, summarized here:

  •  Sell or lease government-owned land.
  •  Defer or waive permit/development fees.
  •  Streamline the approval process.
  •  Solicit state and federal funding for affordable housing projects.
  •  Encourage granny flats and smaller houses and lots.
  •  Reduce parking requirements.
  •  Tax rebates for building affordable housing.
  •  Issue specific policy on short-term vacation rentals (Airbnb).

Andrew covers the topic here:

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/government/city-councils-odd-couple-finds-common-cause-on-housing/

Posted by on Jan 25, 2017 in Builders, Jim's Take on the Market, Local Government, Real Estate Investing, The Future | 2 comments

Realtors and Robots

By now we have all heard how robots will be supplanting humans and taking everyone’s job in the near future.  What about realtors?

Rich Barton had thoughts on the topic this week:

NEW YORK — Robots may be taking over the world. But they won’t eliminate real estate agents — at least not anytime soon.

That’s the message from Zillow co-founder Rich Barton, whose 10-year-old Seattle company transformed the real estate business by unlocking massive amounts of data about individual homes. Could artificial intelligence — AI-powered robot agents — be the next wave in real estate?

“I choose to believe that all (artificial intelligence) is an enhancement, not a displacement. Just pick your industry,” said Barton, speaking at the Inman Connect real estate conference in New York this week. “We do like to see the end of the world in every new technology that emerges, but, in fact, the truth is every new technology that has emerged has enhanced humanity, and created new kinds of jobs that are much better and safer than the factory jobs or whatever jobs were being displaced.”

http://www.geekwire.com/2017/robots-real-estate-theres-nothing-see-zillow-co-founder-says-agent-jobs-safe/

He chooses to believe it when he is speaking in front of a large group of realtors and his Zillow is king of the hill.  We’ll see what he says once the Broker Public Portal is launched, and realtors try to deny Zillow access to listings, which is inevitable – the only other choice to compete with Zillow is to spend the same $100 million on advertising, which we’re not going to do.

My guess is that Zillow will develop their own AI, or buy a company that does it, and then sell it to their top-spending agents.  We’ll have a realtor civil war – Zillow Teams (Zillow & big-spending realtor teams) vs. BPP/Big Franchises.

The big-box franchises will have to side with the BPP in order to keep their lower-producing-agents-with-the-most-favorable-commission-splits in business.

But I digress.

Would it be so bad if robots replaced realtors?

For the vast majority of old-school agents, the job of being a realtor is to properly complete a fill-in-the-blanks contract.  Those who are proficient at it then call themselves ‘great negotiators’.

This week I saw a newer house that has been on the market for months, and from the photos, description, and price, there wasn’t an obvious reason why it wasn’t selling.  I called the agent – she didn’t answer – so I left a detailed message asking questions about its salability.  The next day she sent me a text that said the house was still for sale, on lockbox, and if I showed it, to lock all the doors when I left.  All of her comments were stated clearly in the MLS – her only attempt at selling her listing was to regurgitate what was already obvious.

A robot could have done it better – the robot could have at least responded within a minute with the same information, instead of the next day.

I know it’s demanding to expect realtors to process actual sales skills, but we’re not going to have much choice in the future – agents are going to need better skills to survive.  Filling out forms isn’t enough any more – a robot could do that, and frankly, robots might be an upgrade.

When you list with me, you can count on me to properly engage with other realtors, and give them several reasons why they should sell your house.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jan 22, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Realtor, Realtor Training, The Future | 2 comments

Living in a Storage Locker

This video has been viewed 500,000+ times in one day!  Thanks daytrip!

If you’ve got a small space, you’ll probably find some ingenious way to fit more stuff than should be possible. Necessity, as they say, is the mother of invention. But whatever your space-saving solution is, it probably doesn’t compare to all the methods used by Youtuber 007craft, who spent two months living in a small storage unit, unbeknownst to management of course.

007craft’s storage unit measures only 6x4x10, yet he managed to fit a bed, a large TV and surround sound speaker system, and an entire kitchen, complete with a homemade sink. He also has a number of storage racks on all the walls and even the ceiling, where he keeps everything he doesn’t use regularly.

Posted by on Jan 13, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 5 comments