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Jim Klinge
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701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011

Category Archive: ‘The Future’

Towards the End of Cycle?

Predicting the future is hard. If it weren’t so challenging, we would all be super rich because we could predict winning Powerball numbers.

However, some people do take a crack at it — not predicting lottery numbers — but peering into the future to see what kinds of changes are likely on the horizon.

Christopher Lee, president and CEO of Los Angeles-based CEL & Associates, is one such person. His expertise is real estate, and he recently offered some insights into the future at a meeting of NAIOP San Diego.

For some time, he’s been predicting that we are getting close to seeing the real estate cycle to begin trending downward. We’re in the seventh inning, he’s said.

How does he know this? Real estate follows a familiar pattern, he said. He’s written on the subject in a paper called, “Real Estate Cycles: They Exist … And They Are Predictable.”

He writes: “Most real estate cycles have begun around the third year of a decade (1973, 1983, 1993, 2003) and usually end by the eighth year of that same decade (1978, 1988, 1998, 2008).”

And what year is it?

Yikes! It’s 2018!

That’s not all he sees. He predicts that the number of real estate brokers will fall by as much as 50 percent within a decade. They will be replaced by strategic business advisors.

And why is this? Because more and more people get their real estate information from online sources, such as Google. Brokers aren’t as necessary.

Lee believes the nature of the workforce itself is transforming as well.

“Work is being redefined,” said Lee, noting that we are moving toward an age when freelancers (from Airbnb hosts to Uber drivers) could thrive and where work will start to follow the worker and not the space. Although he expects some 10 million or more jobs to be lost to robotics, he said specialists and niche entrepreneurs with flourish in this new world of real estate.

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Posted by on Jan 15, 2018 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, The Future | 5 comments

Off-Market MLS

We have convinced the public that buying and selling ‘off-market’ properties is sexy and cool, and the high-end agents in Los Angeles took it a step further to create a website to share listings privately.

The has 476 listings so far!

I’d expect some quirky things about a database that isn’t restricted by the usual MLS rules, but they have kept it very simple. The best part is that they have the ability to email a copy of any listing to buyers, which is helpful and feels like a regular MLS.  Agents can create their own hotsheets, search by radius or map, and upload new listings quickly.

While there could be anti-trust implications if it gets to be a dominant device within the industry, an agent-owned MLS club has several huge advantages:

  1. We depend on crappy-MLS companies now – no more.
  2. A high membership fee would be a barrier for marginal agents.
  3. Zillow would depend upon agent-uploading of each listing (if needed).
  4. Redfin’s website would be toast.
  5. For-sale-by-owners could get frozen out.
  6. No need for N.A.R. or C.A.R.
  7. It preserves the cooperation between agents.

It looks like heaven.

Posted by on Jan 11, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, Realtors Talking Shop, The Future | 10 comments

Wheel Estate

For those on the other end of the spectrum, all it can take is a bad break like a serious medical issue or unemployment to cause a disruption in housing.  Many are living out of their car:

Extreme housing prices in California — driven by a combination of speculation, favorable legal/tax positions for landlords, foreclosures after the 2008 crisis, and an unwillingness to build public housing — has created vast homeless encampments, but there’s a less visible side to the crisis: working people in “good jobs” who have to live in their cars.

There’s a whole subreddit devoted to these folks, a mix of maker culture (modding cars to make them more comfortable as homes), hobo chalk-marks (where can you park, and for how long?), and generalized anxiety.

It’s not just single middle-class people, either — they’re roaming America’s streets in company with a vast nomad army of homeless seniors who drive from town to town looking for seasonal work to replace their busted pensions.

What’s striking in California is that many communities already accept people living in vehicles, despite there often being rules or laws against it.

This fall, the city of San Diego expanded its Safe Parking Program, which designates lots that can be used by those living out of their cars, and many other cities have similar programs. Under a law passed last year, Los Angeles also allows overnight parking in some commercial districts. In Mountain View, the mayor brags about the services his city provides to those living in more than 330 cars, trucks and RVs.

Read full article here:


Posted by on Jan 3, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, The Future | 2 comments

Dawg Tour

A video tour of affluence – three shopping centers in full-upgrade mode, plus more on the new homes around Carmel Valley this year. With this much action, it is hard to believe we’ll have any trouble selling the limited amount of homes for sale in 2018 – as long as the kooks don’t nuke!

Here’s the video tour of the model homes from February:

This tour started after Rob Dawg’s comment, “Housing is driving demographics, not the other way round”.

Posted by on Jan 2, 2018 in Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 6 comments

Alexa for Real Estate

The way people digest their real estate listings has evolved over time, and Alexa looks like it will be the next whiz-bang option.  But somebody still needs to do the selling.

Read full article here:



A year ago people were telling Miguel Berger he’s crazy to spend money creating software for the Amazon Echo, enabling users to search for homes with the voice command, “Alexa, open real estate.”

“People were making fun of me,” said Berger, president of Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate Tech Valley in Colonie, New York. “They were saying this is nuts. It’s not going to fly.”

They were wrong.

The investment has started to pay off for Berger and his son, Ami, who formed Voiceter Pro LLC and now have agreements with real estate brokers and multiple listing services in Albany; Boston; Phoenix; Fort Myers and Naples, Florida; Long Island; Staten Island; and Brighton, Michigan.

More cities and regions are on the way.

So far, the skills developed by Voiceter Pro have been spoken 4,000 to 5,000 times. The number may be small, but Berger said usage has jumped 20 to 30 percent over the past six months. He’s convinced it will grow even bigger as other markets are added, speech recognition improves and becomes more commonplace.

“All the BMWs in 2018 will have Alexa built into it,” he said. “Your fridge will be sending you text messages saying you need eggs. It’s going to be part of your life. I truly believe it.”

The technology could soon hit a tipping point similar to what happened with smartphones a decade ago. Amazon’s Echo and other virtual assistants were among the best-selling gifts for Christmas, with “tens of millions” sold, according to the company.

The developer of a luxury apartment building in New York City is installing voice-activated devices in every unit.

“A year ago you didn’t know who Alexa was,” Berger said. “Now, everybody is aware of it.”

The next frontier is combining voice and visuals in the Echo Show, which has a display screen. Now, users can see pictures, a critical feature in any online home search. The Bergers quickly embraced the concept when Amazon cut the price for the Echo Show before Christmas from $229 to $149.

The article has a video that demonstrates the device:


Posted by on Dec 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 0 comments

Multi-Gen On The Rise

If you look at the new homes being built around here, you’d think multi-generational living was the builders’ primary target!


Donna Butts remembers one of the moments that sold her on the idea that there was a sustained rise in the number of multigenerational households. As executive director of Generations United, a nonprofit that promotes intergenerational living, she was called to do an interview on the topic for a Louisiana radio station a few years ago. The host seemed wedded to stereotypes: He’d never want his mother-in-law to move in, since she’d be intrusive and annoying, and adult kids living with their parents were strictly a sign of spoiled millennials.

He was convinced, that is, until he opened the phone lines.

“So, he starts taking calls and everyone has a great story about living with a grandparents or a child under the same roof, and how it’s made their lives better,” Butts says, laughing. “At one point, seeming desperate to prove his point, he asks a guy point blank if having his parent live with his family harms his love life. He just replied, ‘Well, now I have a live-in babysitter, so no.’”

Butts says that this way of thinking—what she calls the ‘John Wayne, go-it-alone mentality’—is withering in the United States. Multigenerational living, when more than one generation lives under one roof (not counting young children or teens), has hit record levels in the U.S. In 2014, according to Pew Research Center data, 60.6 million people, or 19 percent of the U.S. population, lived in multigenerational homes, including 26.9 million three-generation households.

Read full article here:

Posted by on Nov 25, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, The Future | 2 comments

Facebook RE Advertising

Advertising houses for sale on Marketplace can’t be far off now – will some sort of brokerage or mortgage services be next?


Last week, Facebook announced that U.S. users are able to search for housing rentals on its Marketplace platform. Like Craigslist, Facebook Marketplace—which launched in 2016—lets users buy and sell items nearby.

Now, not only can you sell an old couch, but also you can search for apartments and houses based on things like location, price, size, the number of bedrooms, and even if an apartment is animal friendly.

The housing section will include “hundreds of thousands of rentals” that go beyond the individual listings previously posted by users. Facebook has partnered with sources like Apartment List and Zumper to pull in listings. Other people—think brokers, agents, and property managers—can also post properties available for rent. Landlords can add 360-degree photos to each listing so that interested renters can take a virtual tour.

“Marketplace is a popular place for people to look for a home to rent,” said Facebook’s Bowen Pan. “Now that we’re adding listings from Apartment List and Zumper, people can search even more options in the U.S. to find a place to call home. First with vehicles and now with housing rentals, we’re partnering with businesses to bring more ease and convenience for consumers.”

Facebook’s latest announcement is part of a larger plan to keep users in the app longer and to function as a one-stop commerce platform for food, shopping, and even job hunts. Recently, Facebook upgraded Marketplace to include used car ads, and the continued expansion is in direct competition to longtime sites like Craigslist.

Posted by on Nov 17, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 3 comments