Most national forecasts are predicting a 3% to 4% appreciation rate for 2016, which has to be a safe bet. If it comes in anywhere from -2% to +8%, you can say that you were close.
Zillow has enough algorithms that they are willing to make predictions for each local area. They have conflicting numbers, depending on where you look on their website – these are from the Home Values section:
You can see that Zillow was less optimistic last year too. Most were predicting that mortgage rates would be in the mid-4s by now, so the lower rates in 2015 helped fuel higher-than-expected prices. Could rates stay right where they are? Maybe, but both Zillow and I think the euphoria will die down next year:
Zillow Price-Appreciation Predictions
For some reason, Zillow is also labeling each market from Warm to Very Cold. The labels don’t seem to correspond to the predictions, so I don’t know their intent – are they just trying to tell you to put on a sweater?
How will buyers feel about getting worked over for that last 2% to 3% when they see they are in a ‘Very Cold’ market?
Here I describe some of the details of how the sale went down on Glenmont in Solana Beach, which listed for $1,499,000 on January 8th. Not every agent operates this way – many will just grab a cash offer and go for the easy close. But I prefer to go all out:
Doesn’t that price seem a little low, Jim? Well, this is one of the rare times that I have previous experience with this house in virtual the same condition many years later, and all I know is that the price was wrong previously.
An example of how to solve everything with an attractive price.
When buyers think the price is already high, once they get to the house they are looking for any reason to confirm that belief. But if the price seems appealing on paper, buyers come in ‘pre-sold’ just because of the price, and are much more willing to overlook minor repair issues or funky floor plan.
Here’s my new listing with whitewater ocean views in old Solana Beach and the last house on the street – 669 Glenmont, listed for $1,499,000:
Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this cliff-front house on the edge – hopefully someone has a camera on this 24/7!
A luxury house in Texas, perched on a cliff with a spectacular view of Lake Whitney, has started falling into the water. The edge of the 4,000-square-foot home was dangling about 75 feet above the rocky shoreline after part of it had already broken off.
Soil and other debris could be seen falling occasionally from the foundation of the home at the 0.46-min mark.
A small sign reading “Extreme danger. Stay off premises” was placed in the front yard as neighbors looked on helplessly.
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