It’s that time of the year – the 2017 forecasts are starting to roll out!
Zillow has been conservative about our local markets. For the most part, the actual appreciation of the Zillow Home Value Index has been higher than their forecasts over the last two years.
Their local forecasts for 2017 are all lower than their 2016 guesses, and what they are predicting could also be described as ‘Flatsville’. If their local forecasts of +0.9% to +2.2% come true, it would mean that several sellers would end up selling for less than they could have gotten in 2016.
Are we ready for that yet?
Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts
The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.
1953 Willy’s CJ3B. It had the original flathead four-banger engine that could crawl over anything. We changed that out for a Chevy 283V8. Rolled it two different times, no one killed. We built a big cake around it and cruised the last Fullerton homecoming parade like in Animal House (they cancelled the football program the next year). It was also the ride I was driving when I met my wife – I borrowed my dad’s car to take her to Bobs.
1958 Cadillac Convertible – with the big fins! One of the few decent things done by the Padres when they gave Trevor this one as they retired his number 51. The 1959 version is great too.
1969 Chevrolet Camaro SS Convertible – Indy Pace Car. A staple on favorite-lists everywhere and mine made a little more special when John Doe and Exene drove up in one when they played at Fullerton.
Most national forecasts are predicting a 3% to 4% appreciation rate for 2016, which has to be a safe bet. If it comes in anywhere from -2% to +8%, you can say that you were close.
Zillow has enough algorithms that they are willing to make predictions for each local area. They have conflicting numbers, depending on where you look on their website – these are from the Home Values section:
You can see that Zillow was less optimistic last year too. Most were predicting that mortgage rates would be in the mid-4s by now, so the lower rates in 2015 helped fuel higher-than-expected prices. Could rates stay right where they are? Maybe, but both Zillow and I think the euphoria will die down next year:
Zillow Price-Appreciation Predictions
For some reason, Zillow is also labeling each market from Warm to Very Cold. The labels don’t seem to correspond to the predictions, so I don’t know their intent – are they just trying to tell you to put on a sweater?
How will buyers feel about getting worked over for that last 2% to 3% when they see they are in a ‘Very Cold’ market?
Here I describe some of the details of how the sale went down on Glenmont in Solana Beach, which listed for $1,499,000 on January 8th. Not every agent operates this way – many will just grab a cash offer and go for the easy close. But I prefer to go all out:
Jim found me a multi family property that we purchased as an investment (Please see my review of Donna Klinge for details on how it went). But the bottom line is this: I never would have found this property, which cash flows right out of the gate, if it weren't for Jim pointing me toward that house. It just was not on my radar, even though I consider myself a savvy real estate troll. Jim is giving of his time, and his intelligence. And he is also transparent and truthful. And I think he is funny, which is helpful in stressful situations like RE transactions. Jim and Donna have earned every last penny they made from our deal -- and in fact they deserve more. And that is why I will use them for my RE transactions the rest of my life. Thank you, Jim and Donna!
I can't say enough about Jim and Donna. Jim got a great price for us and negotiated well. Donna walked us through escrow, handling vendors, and negotiating everything we asked for in the request for repairs. They are know exactly what they are doing and I've already recommended them to two other people.
I followed Jim's blog for several years and decided to contact him (along with several other realtors) when an out-of-state work relocation required me to sell my home in San Marcos, Ca. At our initially meeting, Jim spent a significant amount of time discussing pricing options, strategy, as well...
Honesty. Integrity. Professionalism. Dedication. Commitment. Jim and Donna Klinge hold these attributes in abundance. They have acted as both our buyer agent and our seller agent delivering highly relevant insight into local market conditions, spot-on advice to maximize the home's value, and unparalleled management of the transaction process...
I cannot imagine a better experience! Jim was our broker when my husband and I bought our first house. Jim never pressured us or glossed over anything. He was patient, knowledgeable, and helped us buy our dream home. His office was detail-oriented, always responsive and we closed in 30 days! The excellent service didn't end when we bought our house, either, the Klinges have given us excellent and fast referrals along the way. We feel privileged to have worked with such a consummate professional and appreciate how rare this level of skill is. Jim is simply the best in the field.
Jim and his team are top flight. He knows the market better than anyone, and his team ensures the deal goes through without a hitch. There's always something at the last minute, but you'd never know it with Jim and his crew. I've bought and sold houses with Jim as my agent over the years, and I wouldn't use anyone else. Save yourself the headaches and potential costly mistakes...
Buying a house is one of the most emotional,exciting, and sometimes confusing milestones you'll reach for in your life! Being a buyer in this market can make it even more interesting! My husband and I have been looking to buy for a year, and when the time came we wanted a realtor team that would be on our team! Being that I'm a business woman and was 7 months pregnant, I wanted, NEEDED, communication, dependability, and consistency! The Klinges went so far above and beyond ...
Jim was recommended to me when I bought my first house here in the US five years ago. He and Donna explained the whole process and it was a great experience to work with them. Not surprisingly, when my company asked me to relocate my first choice was to work with them again...
I have followed Jim's real estate blog for years and by the time I got ready to sell my townhouse I felt I knew him both personally and professionally. At our first meeting he was prepared with recent comps and listings for the area...
"Jim is an absolute pleasure to work with. He tells it like it is and won't let you buy a clunker. He's very knowledgable about the market and you can get a sense of that by following his blog. We couldn't have been happier with our representation during our purchase - which included navigating a ... more "
"Jim and his team are the best! I bought and sold my house with Klinge Realty and if I ever move back to San Diego County, I will definitely be asking ... more "
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