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Category Archive: ‘Shadow Inventory’

Redefaults Rising At Alarming Rate

An excerpt from an article in the MND:

While great efforts must be taken to avoid a future crisis and bailout the SIGTARP says, we cannot lose sight of the current TARP bailout.  Wall Street may have recovered but Main Street has not.  TARP was always intended as a bailout of the financial system to protect American families.  Business and homeowners are still feeling the effect of the crisis and still need help from TARP.

“In its March 2013 TARP report, Treasury writes, ‘Thanks to TARP…struggling homeowners have seen relief, and credit is more available to consumers and small businesses. ‘”  SIGTARP says of this, “Lost in this statement is the unfortunate reality that this improvement is only a fraction of what TARP could and should have done, and in many ways still can do.”

As of March 31, Treasury had spent less than 2 percent ($7.3 billion) of TARP funds on homeowner relief programs including HAMP and the Hardest Hit Funds while spending 75 percent to rescue financial institutions.  “Treasury pulled out all the stops for the largest financial institutions, and it must do the same for homeowners.”

Treasury also has a responsibility to insure the help it does provide is sustainable.

In order to avoid foreclosure through HAMP a homeowner must remain active in a permanent mortgage modification and only 862,279 homeowners are in one, about half of which were funded with TARP money. 

Now many homeowners are defaulting on these modifications, more than 312,000 to date.  SIGTARP is concerned that these defaults are increasing at an alarming rate.  As of March 31 the oldest modifications, done in Q3 and 4 of 2009, are defaulting at respective rates of 46.1 and 39.1 percent.

The report says Treasury should work to curb redefaults, which often inflict great harm on already struggling homeowners when any amounts previously modified suddenly come due.  SIGTARP recommended this month that Treasury conduct research to better understand the causes of redefaults and work with servicers to develop an early warning system so they can intervene before problems occur.

As regards Wall Street, the report says too big to fail is not just about size, it is about the interconnections the largest financial firms have to each other and to American households. 

Regulators were shocked, in 2008, to find how these large institutions were tied to each other and to counterparties so that if one went down it pulled other down with it.  Even the institutions themselves did not realize the extent to which they were linked.  Nor did they realize their exposures to short-term funding counterparties which, as Treasury Secretary Geithner said, “can flee in a heartbeat”, bringing the system down.  While the financial system is more stable now, ending too big to fail is critical to its safety. 

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04242013_tarp_hamp.asp

Posted by on Apr 24, 2013 in Foreclosures/REOs, Shadow Inventory, Strategic Defaults | 5 comments

Distressed-Listings Decline 66%

Why would people list their home as a short-sale?

Because their lender is applying pressure to either make payments, short-sale, or be foreclosed. At least that is the old-fashioned way of banking.

It’s possible that, after months or years of delinquency, some might start making their payments again if they receive that magical loan-mod/principal reduction package. I just haven’t met anybody who has.

Maybe I’m a skeptic, but these stats make it appear that the banks aren’t applying much pressure – distressed listings are 1/3 of last year’s total:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings, First Quarter

Listing Type 2012 2013
REO
56
20
Short-Sales
125
42
Regular
1,089
1,216
Totals
1,270
1,278

It might make sense for banks to be lenient in depressed areas where sales and prices are struggling, but around here we are starved for inventory. The policy is working so well that it may last a long time – the ultimate can-kicker!

San Diego County Filings

Meanwhile, another 85 new listings hit the MLS since our last reading, and we had 81 new pendings with a few cancelled/withdrawns – demand is raging:

Date NSDCC Active Listings Avg. LP $$/sf
Jan 14
649
$722/sf
Feb 4
667
$716/sf
Feb 10
679
$713/sf
Feb 25
678
$719/sf
March 6
727
$703/sf
March 11
744
$698/sf
March 16
746
$703/sf
March 23
755
$712/sf
March 31
752
$717/sf
April 5
780
$704/sf
April 11
780
$710/sf

This is the most important indicator to watch – if the active inventory starts to grow, it means buyers are backing off.

Posted by on Apr 11, 2013 in Inventory, REO Inventory, REOs for sale, Shadow Inventory, Strategic Defaults | 4 comments

REOs Winding Down

The counts of local bank-owned properties are not out in the open, and people are wondering - are there loads of REOs waiting to hit the market?

Here are the SD County REOs from the tax rolls, compared to April 8, 2008:

Lender 4/8/08 Today
Deutsche
1,066
49
US Bank
726
62
BofNY
561
37
WFB
502
44
HSBC
451
30
Citi
144
25
BofA/CW
117
108
JPM Chase
90
18
Totals
3,657
373

With a county population of 3 million people, there should be adequate demand to soak up the remainding REOs once they finally hit the market.

Posted by on Mar 29, 2013 in REO Counts, REO Inventory, Shadow Inventory | 2 comments

Distressed-Sales Count

Equity sales, that is sales of non-distressed properties, now constitute two-thirds of all home sales in California, compared to less than one-half only one year ago.  A report from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.) puts the share of equity sales in the state in February at 67.1 percent, compared to 64.4 percent in January and 46.7 percent in February 2012.

This is the highest share of equity sales since April 2008.

Short sales made up 19.9 percent of sales in California in February compared to 21.5 percent in January and 24.8 percent a year earlier.  Sales of lender-owned real estate (REO) represented 12.6 percent of the home market in February, down from 13.7 percent the previous month and 28 percent in February 2012.

C.A.R.’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 8.7 percent from a revised 101.4 in January to 110.2 in February but was down 8.2 percent from the index in February 2012 of 120.  The index is based on signed contracts and is a forward-looking indicator of future home sales.

The annual decline of pending sales might be attributed to the tight inventory of available homes.   The Unsold Inventory Index for REOs was unchanged from January to February at 2.0 months while the Index for short sales was 3.3 month and for equity sales it was 3.8 months.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/03252013_california_home_sales.asp

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Closed sales of detached homes in North SD County Coastal, last 30 days:

REO:  5  (2%)

SS: 15  (6%)

Regular: 239  (92%)

It’s hard to believe that there are so few distressed sellers.  People have suggested that the banks are adjusting to the California Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was announced in July, 2012.

It’s been nine months now, maybe they are getting back on track?

San Diego County Filings

Posted by on Mar 26, 2013 in Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Shadow Inventory, Short Sales | 0 comments

Glimpse of the Shadow Inventory

Here is a video tour of a few houses in the shadow inventory – ones that are bank-owned, but not listed for sale, but presumably coming to market at some point.

Yes, you could consider the 412 SFRs on the NOD and NOT lists as part of the shadow, but who knows if they will ever get foreclosed.  The same goes for those in default but not noticed – starting January 1st they can’t receive a notice until they have been through the entire loan-mod process.

As recently as the first half of 2010, there were 270 homes on average being foreclosed every week in San Diego County.  Now it’s down to around 100 or so per week:

San Diego County Trustee-Sale Results

There are only 16 SFRs in our La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region that are bank-owned, but not on the market.  Occupants were probably offered cash-for-keys, but those who prefer to pay lawyer fees instead can probably extend their stay for quite a while.

Here are five off-market REOs, and one listed for $699,900, well under it’s opening bid of $967,632:

Posted by on Nov 23, 2012 in Bubbleinfo TV, North County Coastal, REOs Coming to Market, Shadow Inventory | 3 comments

REOs vs. Short Sales

We have been told that banks and servicers are now using short-sales, instead of foreclosures, as their primary defaulter-disposal method.

It appears that the conversion is well underway in San Diego County – here are the number of residential distressed-sales and average pricing for the six months between April 1st and Sept. 30th:

San Diego Co. 2011 2012 % Chg.
REO Sales, # 3,778 2,381 -37%
REO Avg. $/sf $178/sf $184/sf +3%
Short Sales, # 3,465 4,404 +27%
SS Avg. $/sf $195/sf $189/sf -3%

Yes, the conversion from foreclosures to short sales is happening, though it doesn’t look good for the pricing trend. You could call +/- 3% just statistical noise, but for those who believe that the lenders save big money by short-selling vs foreclosure should think again.

The fraud seems to be getting more outrageous too – did you see the one yesterday that if the realtor would have listed it at market value, the seller would have made money? Instead, he listed it at $100,000 below the loan amount, and called it a short sale – at least for the usual five seconds before he withdrew the listing!

(withdrawing a SS listing is common when the listing agent has his own buyer and doesn’t want competition – he shows the bank a copy of the listing taken during the five seconds that it was active)

Posted by on Oct 20, 2012 in Foreclosures/REOs, Shadow Inventory, Short Sales, Short Selling, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 0 comments

Discussing The New Normal

Here is the 59-minute video of the discussion from the recent Zillow Forum On California Housing – the title of this discussion is:

Is it a Good Time to Buy in California?: The Housing Market’s New Normal

I agreed with Mark around the 41-minute market that we are heading for a paralysis, where the investors run out of reasonably-priced supply to purchase, and equity sellers keep holding out for higher prices. We have become dependent on the distressed sale!

Posted by on Oct 16, 2012 in Forecasts, Frenzy, Inventory, Real Estate Investing, Shadow Inventory | 0 comments

Suspicious Evidence

The latest C-L HPI came out on Tuesday, reporting the price increases in each market.  They have two categories, the full-market number that includes “distressed sales” (short sales and foreclosures), and then another index that excludes “distressed sales”.

We don’t know the mix or types of properties, so this is pure speculation.  But if the indexes are properly weighted to give an accurate depiction of the pricing, can we conclude a couple of things from this data?

City/Area (CSBA) HPI (excl. distressed) HPI (incl. distressed)
Phoenix
+16.9%
+21.8%
Inland Emp
+6.4%
+4.0%
Los Angeles
+6.0%
+4.0%
San Diego
+4.3%
+0.8%
USA
+4.9%
+4.6%

1.  Investors have gone wild in Phoenix, with pricing of distressed properties going up faster than non-distressed.  If they have more REO listings that are priced well, are easy to see, and have a fair bidding process, they should sell faster and for more money than those that are priced incorrectly, are difficult to see, and struggle to create a fair bidding process.

2.  The other areas show slower price gains in the distressed-properties category, which is what people expect – that distressed properties sell for less. But not for much less.

3.  San Diego has the biggest negative difference between distressed and non-distressed categories.  Every REO sale that I see looks like a fair bidding process and a full-value sales price – it must be that the short sales are dragging down the pricing in that category.  With the push towards fewer foreclosures and more short sales, don’t be surprised if this category suffers – because realtor manipulation of the short-sale process is wide-spread in San Diego County.

The +0.8% sticks out like a sore thumb.  The index isn’t measuring just distressed sales only – they are mixed in with the full market.  Yet look how they skew down the data – how can distressed sales cause a right turn in the springtime data when, without them, the trend was full tilt boogie?

CHART NCT house price index

Posted by on Oct 4, 2012 in Fraud, Shadow Inventory, Short Sales | 0 comments

REO/Short Sale Notes

BofA conducted a realtor seminar today on REOs and short sales.

Some of the highlights:

1.  Short sales average three buyers per closing (average two fallouts before the third one sticks).

2.  18% of short sales have some elements of fraud.

3.  They forgive deficiencies on all first mortgages in California, and most second mortgages.

4.  Of those foreclosed, 30% never attempt a loan-mod or short sale (strategic defaults).

5.  Nationally, REOs sell for 12% less than short sales.

More commentary on REO sales:

Posted by on Sep 20, 2012 in Foreclosures/REOs, Seminars, Shadow Inventory, Short Sales, Strategic Defaults | 0 comments