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(760) 434-5000

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Category Archive: ‘Sellers Waiting For Comeback’

More Move-Ups Wanted

I removed the ‘Foreclosure’ and ‘Short Sale’ buttons at the top of this website.

The distressed market around NSDCC appears to be over, and while there will be some stragglers, there won’t be any distressed sellers unless, and until, the banks start up the foreclosure machine again.

Literally, there has been zero NSDCC detached homes listed as short sales this year, and only one bank-owned house (which we saw).

move up buyersWith distressed properties off the list, we are back to the Big Three list of serious sellers; death, divorce, and job transfer.  These groups are a constant source of homes coming to market, and we know they aren’t just testing the waters.

Are there other serious sellers in play?

Others have said that the move-up market should be lively, and I poo-poo’d the idea just due to the difficulty of selling one to buy another.

But should the move-up-or-downers be considered as the new #4 on the list of motivated sellers?  Here are four groups with reasons:

Committed to Long-Term – The primary driving force in today’s market seems to be families looking for a house raise a growing family, and stay forever.  Even though I recommend that you should move every 6-12 months, nobody is taking me up on it any more! :)

Squeeze to Improve Quality – Anyone who finds themselves in an inferior situation – location, schools, etc. – will endure the inconveniences in order to upgrade.  Anyone motivated enough will find a way – and all you need is money.

Inheritance – Those who receive a windfall amount of money will consider upgrading their lifesytle by purchasing a new residence.  I’m convinced this has to be a segment of the demand, based on considerably-higher prices paid.

Combining Generations – With the folks getting older, it’s natural for them to consider sharing a residence with the kids to get extra support.

These four groups of potential buyers who need to sell theirs to buy the next house have the necessary motivation to endure the financing hurdles.  They would add to both supply and demand, and help build some sales momentum (which could be off to a sticky start here in 2014).

If you are thinking of moving up or down, and want some advice on how to handle the particulars, get a hold of me! jim@jimklinge.com

Posted by on Jan 21, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Spring Kick, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

88.6% Not Underwater in SD

clIn the San Diego-Carlsbad area, 11.4 percent, or 66,899, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity as of the third quarter 2013, according to CoreLogic.  It was a slight improvement from 2Q13, when 13.6% of all mortgaged properties were in negative equity.

San Diego-Carlsbad

More than 20% equity:  73.3%

0 - 20% equity:  15.3%

Negative Equity:  11.4%

Near Negative Equity (95%-100%): 2.4%

Near Positive Equity: (100%-105%): 2.0%

Mortgaged Properties: 585,000

Average Loan-to-Value ratio: 56.9%

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/equity-report.aspx

Click on image:

underwaterreport

Posted by on Dec 17, 2013 in Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Shadow Inventory, Strategic Defaults, Walkaways | 0 comments

Distressed-Sales Count

Equity sales, that is sales of non-distressed properties, now constitute two-thirds of all home sales in California, compared to less than one-half only one year ago.  A report from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.) puts the share of equity sales in the state in February at 67.1 percent, compared to 64.4 percent in January and 46.7 percent in February 2012.

This is the highest share of equity sales since April 2008.

Short sales made up 19.9 percent of sales in California in February compared to 21.5 percent in January and 24.8 percent a year earlier.  Sales of lender-owned real estate (REO) represented 12.6 percent of the home market in February, down from 13.7 percent the previous month and 28 percent in February 2012.

C.A.R.’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 8.7 percent from a revised 101.4 in January to 110.2 in February but was down 8.2 percent from the index in February 2012 of 120.  The index is based on signed contracts and is a forward-looking indicator of future home sales.

The annual decline of pending sales might be attributed to the tight inventory of available homes.   The Unsold Inventory Index for REOs was unchanged from January to February at 2.0 months while the Index for short sales was 3.3 month and for equity sales it was 3.8 months.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/03252013_california_home_sales.asp

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Closed sales of detached homes in North SD County Coastal, last 30 days:

REO:  5  (2%)

SS: 15  (6%)

Regular: 239  (92%)

It’s hard to believe that there are so few distressed sellers.  People have suggested that the banks are adjusting to the California Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was announced in July, 2012.

It’s been nine months now, maybe they are getting back on track?

San Diego County Filings

Posted by on Mar 26, 2013 in Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Shadow Inventory, Short Sales | 0 comments

Equity’s Big Comeback

Maggie Medved was stuck with her Phoenix house for two years after the market crash wiped out the equity in the property. Last year, as prices in the area rose by the most in the U.S., she and her partner were finally able to sell the 3-bedroom 1950’s style home and move to a larger place.

“We were counting the days for when we could move,” said Medved, 40, who trains employees for weight loss company Jenny Craig Inc. “We definitely knew it was a waiting game because it would’ve been financial suicide if we had sold earlier.”

Medved was among the 12 million borrowers in the U.S. who at the peak of the real-estate downturn owed more on their mortgages than their houses were worth, blocking them from moving or saving money by taking advantage of the lowest borrowing costs on record to refinance. As prices recovered, the number of underwater borrowers fell by almost 4 million last year to 7 million, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. , and could drop to 4 million within 2 years.

The housing market is rebounding faster than anyone thought possible, according to Blackstone Group LP ’s global head of real estate Jonathan Gray, as the Federal Reserve buys mortgage bonds to keep rates near record lows and investors sop up a diminishing supply of properties for sale. Housing construction could boost U.S. gross domestic product by 0.4 percentage point and home price appreciation may add another 0.2 percentage point, Bank of America’s senior economist Michelle Meyer forecasts.

Click on “View Individual Post” link for full story >>>

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Posted by on Jan 15, 2013 in Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Short Selling | 1 comment

Down-Sizing

The McMansion generation is in downsizing mode.

Millions of Americans age 50 and older are looking around their spacious homes and are deciding they don’t need all that room anymore. The kids are gone, maybe a spouse, too. And they could really use the money from a sale to bulk up their retirement funds.

But downsizing isn’t always simple, painless—or even all that beneficial financially. With the real-estate market still fragile, many baby boomers are getting a lot less than they expected for the old homestead. All too often, they have little cash left over after buying a new place, and their monthly expenses don’t fall as much as they thought—or may even rise instead.

Then there’s the emotional pain of scaling back. Many baby boomers are finding they lack the stomach or stamina to dismantle their lives. They can’t bear to sort through or part with all those boxes in the basement, or argue with the adult children who want to keep the house where they grew up. Sometimes they downsize only to find they miss their old lifestyle and stuff.

“Don’t make any broad assumptions that downsizing is going to save your retirement,” cautions Jeff Bogue, a certified financial planner in Wells, Maine. “It may help your finances, but I’ve seen plenty of people who find that it doesn’t pan out as they had thought.”

It’s a challenge lots of boomers are going to face. All told, more than 40% of Americans ages 50 to 64 plan to move within the next five years or so, according to the Demand Institute, which is jointly operated by the Conference Board and Nielsen Co.

Dominated by “the many baby boomers who delayed retirement during the recession,” prospective downsizers exceed would-be “upsizers” by nearly 3 to 1, says Louise Keely, chief research officer at the Demand Institute.

Here’s a look at some of the problems you might face as you scale down—and how to overcome them.

Read More

Posted by on Dec 11, 2012 in Boomers, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links | 10 comments

Selling Season Stats

For those who think we are still over-valued and need to resort to historical trends, consider this.

  1. If it weren’t for the big blow-up in the 2003-2004 era, we might have been fine.
  2. We are roughly 25% higher in pricing then we were 10 years ago, or about +2.5% per year.
  3. The last three selling seasons have been steady.

Average $/sf of NSDCC Detached Sales between April 1st and July 31st:

Sustainable?  As long as rates and inventory stay low, we should be OK for now.  For sellers who are “waiting for prices to come back”, consider that this is probably where they were supposed to be, and the fog-a-mirror financing that fueled the bubble won’t be returning.

Posted by on Aug 23, 2012 in Sales and Price Check, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 8 comments

Flood Prevention

<br/><a href="http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/man-builds-moat-to-save-home-from-flooding/206r7g43?q=river+flood&#038;rel=msn&#038;from=en-us_msnhp&#038;form=MSNRLL&#038;gt1=42010&#038;src=v5:embed::&#038;fg=sharenoembed" target="_new"title="Man Builds Moat To Save Home From Flooding">Video: Man Builds Moat To Save Home From Flooding</a>

Posted by on May 22, 2011 in Sellers Waiting For Comeback | 1 comment

Selling for Eight Years

From the Charlotte Observer, via Piggington:

Where do you begin a tour of a $2.45 million house?

You begin outside, near the front of a wooded, 2-acre parcel, where a stone-bedded creek carries pumped water from the front fence down to an elegant koi pond. It’s one of the first things you see when the privacy gate rolls back and lets you roll in to 4823 Camilla Drive.

“It’s beautiful,” says Eric Markel.

Welcome to his baby – a six-bedroom, seven-bathroom, 6,977-square-foot home. It is one of Charlotte’s most beautiful houses – spectacular from copper roof to basement home theater – lovingly built in a desirable South Park neighborhood in 2003, when the city’s real estate market was in full sizzle.

But 4823 Camilla hasn’t sold. The $2.45 million house is now a $1.65 million house. The koi? “Long dead,” Markel says.

Multiple Listing Service data don’t provide information on which houses have spent the most time on the market, but at almost eight years, Markel’s house has hung on the vine longer than any home Realtors across Charlotte can recall.

Read More

Posted by on Dec 28, 2010 in Builders, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Thinking of Building? | 8 comments

VP Gives Up (Again)

Hat tip to kwaping for sending this along, from the U-T:

The developer of downtown San Diego’s largest residential highrise said today that it is giving up on trying to sell any of the 679 condos and is returning deposits to dozens of buyers who had been awaiting the close of escrow.

“We’re not able to meet the Fannie Mae or Freddie MAC or FHA requirements in this marketplace because we can’t get enough sales,” said Randy Klapstein, CEO of Pointe of View, developer of Vantage Pointe, which completed construction last year in the midst of the economic downturn.

“We’re not getting the traction we’d hoped for, and we don’t want our customers to stay in limbo, so it’s best to move on.”

It is now likely the East Village condo project will remain a rental complex for the foreseeable future, said Klapstein, noting that there are now roughly 200 renters, about a dozen of whom are buyers who were waiting for the sales contracts to be finalized.

“At this point, we’re going to continue renting,” Klapstein said.

Over the last several months, the Pointe of View loan has been marketed for sale, but no deal has been finalized yet. When asked whether it was possible that the condo project might be sold, Klapstein would only say, “It’s always a possibility.”

The developer is in the process of returning deposits to buyers, and purchasers who are living in the complex as renters have the option of remaining or working with the Pointe of View sales team to find a condo to purchase elsewhere in downtown, said Klapstein.

Posted by on Aug 30, 2010 in Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Shadow Inventory | 7 comments