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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

Four strong months in a row – at this pace, our local Case-Shiller Index will rise about 10%-12% this year!  This is the non-seasonally-adjusted index below. The seasonally-adjusted was slightly higher at 237.79.

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the April increase in prices shows demand for homes is rising but the supply of homes has hardly kept up.

“The question is not if home prices can climb without any limit; they can’t,” Blitzer said in a statement. “Rather, will home price gains gently slow or will they crash and take the economy down with them? For the moment, conditions appear favorable for avoiding a crash.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%
November
228.89
+0.2%
+5.8%
December
229.41
+0.2%
+5.4%
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Jun 27, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

If we stay on the same pace we’ve had for the first three months of 2017, our local Case-Shiller Index will rise about 10%-12% this year!

“People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up,” David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “If mortgage rates, currently near 4%, rise further, this could deter more people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices.”

“While prices cannot rise indefinitely, there is no way to tell when rising prices and mortgage rates will force a slowdown in housing.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Read More

Posted by on May 30, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, February

If we stay on the same pace we’ve had for the first two months of 2017, our local C-S index will rise about 10% this year!  Blitzy just kills it with this quote:

David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the low stock of existing homes for sale — currently about 3.8 months worth of supply at current sales rates — is bolstering the price increases across the board.

“Housing affordability has declined since 2012 as the pressure of higher prices has been a larger factor than stable to lower mortgage rates,” Blitzer added.

The cities with the biggest annual price gains in February were Seattle, Portland, Oregon and Dallas, according to the groups’ index.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 25, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, January

After five months of flatsville, our local non-seasonally adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index took off in January, up 0.8% month-over-month!  It was the highest increase of any metro area!  We usually see the biggest pops in spring, so stay tuned.

Blitzy doesn’t have to worry about breaking the internet with these thoughts:

“Housing and home prices continue on a generally positive upward trend,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The actions by the Federal Reserve raising the target for the Fed funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point is expected to add less than a quarter percentage point to mortgage rates in the near future, Blitzer said.

“Given the market’s current strength and the economy, the small increase in interest rates isn’t expected to dampen home buying. If we see three or four additional increases this year, rising mortgage rates could become concern,” he said.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 28, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, December

Our local San Diego Case-Shiller Index sure has settled down.  In the last five months, the index has only risen 0.8%.

The index is so flat it seems suspicious.

It is a three-month weighted average, but that also means a whole new set of home sales are added every month – yet the index is virtually identical for five months running?  It used to bounce around more.

Our index has gone up 59% since the recent bottom in April, 2009.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%
November
228.89
+0.2%
+5.8%
December
229.41
+0.2%
+5.4%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Posted by on Feb 28, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index

Our local San Diego Case-Shiller Index has risen 1.2% in the last six months, which makes for an easy equation.

Houses should be selling for about the same as what the last guy got.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%
November
228.89
+0.2%
+5.8%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

“One can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago,” David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a press release.

Blitzer cited the new administration’s pro-growth agenda, infrastructure spending plans, and tax reform proposals as factors that could affect the housing market.

“Mortgage rates have increased since the election and stronger economic growth could push them higher. Further gains in personal income and employment may increase the demand for housing and add to price pressures when home prices are already rising about twice as fast as inflation,” he said in the release.

Posted by on Jan 31, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index

At the rate our local Case-Shiller Index has been rising over the last few months, we will be looking at 2% to 3% appreciation per year – or less.

“Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to out-pace gains in wages and personal income.”

Blitzer noted that measures of home affordability—which are based on median incomes, housing prices and mortgage rates—have fallen by 20 percent to 30 percent since home prices hit a bottom in 2012. While consumer confidence is high and unemployment is low, home prices cannot keep rising faster than incomes and inflation, he said.

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Posted by on Dec 27, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept

sdcsisept

Our local Case-Shiller Index has slowed down considerably, rising just 1.3% over the last five readings. The September reading rose 0.057% – be prepared for an occasional negative reading from now on.

“The housing market has been favoring sellers for the past few years,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “Sellers in the current housing landscape often have the luxury of listing their home ‘as-is’ without fixing it up or with only minimal window-dressing since demand for homes has been high and inventory low. It’s common for sellers to receive multiple bids, and in the hottest markets, sell for over asking price, but these conditions will change in the future.”

The supply of homes for sale is still very tight, with six percent fewer listings in October than October of 2015 nationally, according to Zillow. Among the nation’s largest metropolitan housing markets, Boston, Indianapolis and Kansas City showed the biggest drop in inventory. In Boston there are 26 percent fewer homes for sale than there were a year ago, and 24 percent fewer in Indianapolis. Gudell predicts, however, that supply will slowly increase and home value appreciation will slow.

“We expect the market to meaningfully swing in favor of buyers within the next two to three years,” she said.

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Posted by on Nov 29, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

aug

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index barely moved in August, which is similar to last year too.  We had a big pop in July, and then a tame August reading in both 2015 and 2016.

Look forward to occasional negative readings from now on – that’s what happens in flatsville!

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Posted by on Oct 25, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments