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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

Case-Shiller Compared to Peak

Nick at the WSJ showed how the Case-Shiller Index increases are slowing, though it is worth pointing out that the index is still rising. I don’t think prices are rising much if at all, but the index is rising:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/08/26/how-home-prices-have-slowed-down-in-five-charts/

Here are  some individual cities compared to their peak:

nick

San Diego didn’t make the cut for that graph, but we are very similar to Los Angeles.  The San Diego Case-Shiller Index has risen less than 1%  per month in each of the last three months, so the idea of getting back to a 250 reading seems far off:

San Diego Case-Shiller Index:

18.8% below the peak in November, 2005, and up 10.2% year-over-year.

 

Case Shiller SD peak

Posted by on Sep 5, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

Collapse Recount

From Bloomberg.com:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/case-shiller-retrofit-shows-less-severe-u-s-home-price-slump.html

The collapse in U.S. home prices that stoked the worst recession since the Great Depression wasn’t quite as severe as initially estimated, according to data from S&P/Case-Shiller.

Property values nationally fell 26 percent from the February 2007 peak to the December 2011 trough, not 34 percent as previously reported, revised data showed last week. The index will now be issued monthly rather than quarterly.

The change is the result of CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX)’s $6 million purchase of the S&P/Case-Shiller index from technology company Fiserv Inc. in March 2013. Case-Shiller has spent more than a year retrofitting its model with CoreLogic’s bigger, higher-quality data set, leading to a change in how the index looks.

Posted by on Sep 3, 2014 in Coffee Bet, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

SD Case-Shiller, June 2014

case shiller june 2014

The increases in the local Case-Shiller index have slowed, and we’re no longer in that sexy 1% to 3% per month frenzy era of 2013.  But it’s still increasing monthly – it would take a few negative readings to get anyone’s attention now.

P.S. Today’s reading is 41% higher than it was in April, 2009 (203.32 vs. 144.43).

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%

Posted by on Aug 26, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 2 comments

SD Case-Shiller, May 2014

SD Case-Shiller

The month-over-month change in our local Case-Shiller Index was positive in May, which is no surprise. It’s reflecting decisions made in February and March, which was about 5% ago.

But the M-O-M numbers are sliding downward quickly, and could be flat or negative as soon as next month.

Buyers will expect a break on price - will sellers give it to them? Probably not, and the market will probably hit stall speed for the rest of the year.

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%

Posted by on Jul 29, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

San Diego Slowdown

Zillow has been accurately predicting the changes in the Case-Shiller Index lately, swamping the boat like most everything else they touch in the industry.  The C-S Index is becoming an after-thought for those thirsty for price data.

While the San Diego CSI has been showing a YoY double-digit gain for the last 15 months (including March’s 18.9% and April’s 15.3%), those days are rapidly coming to an end.

Zillow is predicting that their San Diego ZHVI index will show a 12.7% YoY change for May:

SD May

It was the rise in mortgage rates about a year ago that helped slow the frenzy conditions, and cause prices to level off.  The YoY changes will be catching up, and by the end of summer be back in the single digits – we could even get close to zero.

Yesterday, Professor Shiller hoped that people wouldn’t get too worked up about prices, and I doubt they will. Buyers especially will be happy to tread water as long as prices and rates are both stagnant – which makes it tougher on sellers to sell for their price.

For sellers waiting for the market to top off, I think you can say we are here.  Yes, there will be slight appreciation here and there, but you could also get a couple of bad comps around you too.

Posted by on Jun 25, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

SD Case Shiller, April 2014

Case Shiller SD

The year-over-year change still looks great considering it’s compared to April, 2013 which already had some frenzy-boost in it.  The month-over-month trend is probably the most relevant, and one to watch.

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.76%
+15.34%

Robert Shiller, co-founder of the Case-Shiller index and a professor of economics at Yale University, said on “Squawk on the Street” that he remains bullish on the housing recovery.”The housing market is actually better than public perception,” he said. “There has been a lot of momentum, upward momentum, and I’m not sure that that’s gone.”

He added: “The market is going up faster than people perceive it. It’s actually a better market than people think and expectations are not really very high yet for home price increases.”

Prof. Shiller told CNBC he felt prices “went up way too high in 2006 and they came down like 50 percent, and now they’re going up. They look about right and you know, I hope people just don’t get so worked up about them.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101783818

Posted by on Jun 24, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 1 comment

Shiller On Market

Robert Shiller says in the video below,

frothy“Homeowners seem to be losing interest”, though he didn’t give evidence or details on why he thinks that – maybe the more-pedestrian price increases?

If he thinks homeowners/homebuyers are losing interest because sellers keep asking more, then I’d agree.  The Case-Shiller Index for San Diego may be creeping up at roughly 1% per month, but list prices seem frothier.

But mortgage rates in the 3s will ignite the frenzy all over again!

Posted by on May 27, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 2 comments

SD Case-Shiller, March

San Diego’s Case-Shiller Index had another nice monthly gain, up 1.34% from February’s number.  The total gain for the first three months of 2014 is higher than the first quarter total in 2013!

The YoY increase is staying among the best in the country too, ranking the third highest of the Composite-20 cities. The SD CSI was +18.9% YoY, behind only Las Vegas (+21.2%) and San Francisco (+20.9%).

Our current 199.60 index is still 20% below the San Diego all-time high of 250.34, recorded in November, 2005.

These are the non-seasonally adjusted numbers below (though the seasonally-adjusted number was the same this month):

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%

SD case shiller history

Posted by on May 27, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 3 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Feb

San Diego’s Case-Shiller Index continued its steady rise, but according to David Blitzer, we might be the lucky ones:

“Prices remained steady from January to February for the two Composite indices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The annual rates cooled the most we’ve seen in some time. The three California cities and Las Vegas have the strongest increases over the last 12 months as the West continues to lead. Denver and Dallas remain the only cities which have reached new post-crisis price peaks. The Northeast with New York, Washington and Boston are seeing some of the slowest year-over-year gains. However, even there prices are above their levels of early 2013. On a month-to-month basis, there is clear weakness. Seasonally adjusted data show prices rose in 19 cities, but a majority at a slower pace than in January.

“Despite continued price gains, most other housing statistics are weak. Sales of both new and existing homes are flat to down. The recovery in housing starts, now less than one million units at annual rates, is faltering. Moreover, home prices nationally have not made it back to 2005. Mortgage interest rates, which jumped in May last year and are steady since then, are blamed by some analysts for the weakness. Others cite difficulties in qualifying for loans and concerns about consumer confidence. The result is less demand and fewer homes being built. “Five years into the recovery from the recession, the economy will need to look to gains in consumer spending and business investment more than housing. Long overdue activity in residential construction would be welcome, but is certainly not assured.”

These are the non-seasonally adjusted numbers below:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%

This index doesn’t tell us much about the future, other than it has been steady around here for a while!

Posted by on Apr 29, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan.

San Diego’s Case-Shiller Index for January, 2014 had the highest increase in the nation for seasonally-adjusted, month-over-month readings.

Our seasonally-adjusted index went up 1.8% between December and January!

Of course, having one of the warmest winters on record probably helped – do we need to be seasonally adjusted?

These are the non-seasonally adjusted numbers below:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%

“The housing recovery may have taken a breather due to the cold weather,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Twelve cities reported declining prices in January vs. December; eight of those were worse than the month before. From the bottom in 2012, prices are up 23% and the housing market is showing signs of moving forward with more normal price increases.

“The Sun Belt showed the five highest monthly returns. Las Vegas was the leader with an increase of 1.1% followed by Miami at +0.7%. San Diego showed its best January performance of 0.6% since 2004. San Francisco and Tampa trailed closely at +0.5% and +0.4%. Elsewhere, New York and Washington D.C. stood out as they continued to improve and posted their highest year-over-year returns since 2006.

Here is the usual interview with Shiller: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101522276

During an interview with CNBC, Robert Shiller, the index’s co-founder and an economics professor at Yale University, characterized January’s growth as “good,” but cautioned that home price gains were slowing gradually. The overall market appears to be weakening, Shiller said, suggesting that the recent surge could due to speculative activity.

“I worry that [the housing market] is going to weaken more because I think investors are in the market,” Shiller said, adding that “they know there is momentum in house prices,” calling the recent price gains “enticing.”  Shiller added: “Now, you know, it may not last and these investors may be gone.”

The highest reading on this graph is 250.34 in November, 2005:

SD Case-Shiller Index history

Posted by on Mar 25, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 4 comments