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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept

sdcsisept

Our local Case-Shiller Index has slowed down considerably, rising just 1.3% over the last five readings. The September reading rose 0.057% – be prepared for an occasional negative reading from now on.

“The housing market has been favoring sellers for the past few years,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “Sellers in the current housing landscape often have the luxury of listing their home ‘as-is’ without fixing it up or with only minimal window-dressing since demand for homes has been high and inventory low. It’s common for sellers to receive multiple bids, and in the hottest markets, sell for over asking price, but these conditions will change in the future.”

The supply of homes for sale is still very tight, with six percent fewer listings in October than October of 2015 nationally, according to Zillow. Among the nation’s largest metropolitan housing markets, Boston, Indianapolis and Kansas City showed the biggest drop in inventory. In Boston there are 26 percent fewer homes for sale than there were a year ago, and 24 percent fewer in Indianapolis. Gudell predicts, however, that supply will slowly increase and home value appreciation will slow.

“We expect the market to meaningfully swing in favor of buyers within the next two to three years,” she said.

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Save

Posted by on Nov 29, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

aug

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index barely moved in August, which is similar to last year too.  We had a big pop in July, and then a tame August reading in both 2015 and 2016.

Look forward to occasional negative readings from now on – that’s what happens in flatsville!

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Posted by on Oct 25, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

Shiller: “Holding Pattern”

bob

For an ivory-tower guy, 70-year old Robert Shiller does pretty good in describing the current environment – a couple of excerpts from this article:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-shiller-theres-always-reason-to-worry-about-a-coming-collapse-in-housing-124331739.html

“There’s always reason to worry [about a coming collapse],” Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize–winning economist and co-creator of the S&P/Case Shiller Index, told Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith in the video above. But he is quick to point out one stark difference between today’s housing market and that of 2006. “We’re in a holding pattern right now … People are less excited about buying because they themselves don’t believe [home prices] will be going up a lot. Back in 2006, when the homeownership rate was setting records, people had extravagant expectations.”

“The Fed raised [rates] in December just a quarter of one percent, and plausibly they’ll raise [rates] by another quarter or a half percent, and it may not be a big deal,” said Shiller. “On the other hand, it might be a big deal because we’re in this strange period of near zero interest rates, and if people see it as a major turning point, it could affect home prices.  My opinion is if you want a house, go out and buy it. It’s not an extremely unusual time. There are always risks. ”

Posted by on Sep 29, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, July

sdcsijuly2016

The July, 2016 reading of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index was elevated compared to June – just like last year!  The increase this year was somewhat throttled though, and based on how it went in 2015, the San Diego CSI should be fairly quiet over the next six months.

Will sellers be happy to get what the last guy got?

Here are the recent San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Posted by on Sep 27, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

The June reading of the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index increased +0.3% month-over-month, which was the same as last June.

Judging by the more-current graph at the bottom, we have already arrived in flatsville, and we can probably expect tepid results from our Case-Shiller Index for the remainder of 2016.

“Overall, residential real estate and housing is in good shape. Sales of existing homes are at running at about 5.5 million units annually with inventory levels under five months, indicating a fairly tight market,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

Portland, Oregon, led the gainers with price appreciation of 12.6 percent. Seattle followed with an 11 percent increase, and Denver came in third with a 9.2 percent gain.

“In the strongest region, the Pacific Northwest, prices are rising at more than 10 percent; in the slower Northeast, prices are climbing a bit faster than inflation,” Blitzer said.

Here are the recent San Diego NSA changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.22
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.45
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.64
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.47
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.86
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.77
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.06
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.35
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
223.05
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.06
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
225.75
+0.3%
+6.4%

aug

Posted by on Aug 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller, May 2016

csi-m

Sellers keep asking for more, and the trend is in their favor!  The Case-Shiller Index is a lagging indicator – today’s reading is measuring the spring kick, a blended number from March, April and May sales.

The good news should continue though. Look back at last year’s July – the month-over-month gain was a whopping +1.1%! With the low rates, we might hit that again this year.

Home-price appreciation continues throughout much of the United States, David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

“Overall, housing is doing quite well. In addition to strong prices, sales of existing homes reached the highest monthly level since 2007 as construction of new homes showed continuing gains,” he said.

Here are the recent San Diego NSA changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.22
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.45
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.64
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.47
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.86
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.77
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.06
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.35
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
223.05
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.06
+0.9%
+6.4%

fin

Posted by on Jul 26, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

cssd

The year-over-year improvement is the most remarkable stat – last year was great, yet the index keeps going higher!

“The home price increases reflect the low unemployment rate, low mortgage interest rates, and consumers’ generally positive outlook,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

Here are the recent San Diego NSA changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.22
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.45
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.64
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.47
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.86
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.77
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.06
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.35
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
223.05
+0.8%
+6.3%

Posted by on Jun 28, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller, March

san diego case shiller march 2016

The March reading of the local Case-Shiller Index rose 1% month-over-month. As the index starts reflecting the ‘season’, it will probably show higher velocity over the next few months.

Even the high-tier was cooking – it also rose 1% month-over-month! But it has been fairly flat over the last year, so it was probably overdue.

(see graph at bottom)

Here are the recent San Diego NSA changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.22
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.45
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.64
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.47
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.86
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.77
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.06
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.35
+1.0%
+6.2%

sdcsht

Posted by on May 31, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index Feb. 16

hightiersd

February’s Case-Shiller Index for San Diego rose by 0.1% over January.  Our average of +0.3% per month over the last six months is probably what we can expect for the rest of the year, with the next couple of months being elevated (like in 2015) due to the ‘season’.

But the higher-end market dropped 0.3%, and with 459 active listings of NSDCC houses priced over $2,400,000, it’s a buyer’s market there.  We could see more pricing turbulence on the high-end before the year is out.

Here are the San Diego NSA changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.22
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.45
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.64
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.47
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.86
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.77
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.06
+0.1%
+6.4%

Posted by on Apr 26, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments