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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

NSDCC Annual Sales

How did 2014 stack up to previous years?

Year
No. of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2002
3,717
$630,000
38
2003
3,932
$732,500
34
2004
3,363
$948,000
27
2005
3,014
$1,000,000
40
2006
2,626
$985,000
51
2007
2,479
$1,000,000
49
2008
2,037
$890,000
54
2009
2,223
$817,000
52
2010
2,461
$830,000
46
2011
2,562
$825,000
57
2012
3,154
$830,000
46
2013
3,218
$952,250
25
2014
2,838
$1,025,000
28

A.  Look at the similarities between the median SP in 2003-2005, and the last three years.  In both cases, the frenzy caused a large increase one year, followed by a smaller jump the next year.  It then plateaued in 2006 and 2007, in spite of the easiest credit ever.  I think we can expect a similar plateau-like event in pricing.

B.  In 2014, we had 3% fewer listings, but 12% fewer sales than in 2013.  The pricing strategies being employed are less effective than before.

C.  Over the last two years, more than half of the sales occurred within the first month the house was on the market.

Expect more of the same this year!

Posted by on Jan 13, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

SD Lower Tier Is Hotter

SD Tiered

The ivory-tower opinion below is blaming speculators for a mini-bubble, but around here I’d say that over 90% of the home sales were regular, organic real estate transactions in 2013.  Prices may fall in the coming months (slightly), and if they do, it will be because buyers are being patient and picking off only the best buys.

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-tiered-home-pricing/

Home prices displayed mixed signals in Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego in the single month of October 2014. Prices dipped in San Diego, remained roughly level in Los Angeles and rose slightly in San Francisco. Low-tier property prices are still on average 10% higher than one year earlier. Mid-tier and high-tier prices are 6% higher.

As in 2010, today’s price movement is the tail end of a mini-bubble, set into motion some 18 months earlier. This price rise was produced by short-lived speculator interference in 2013 (not a tax stimulus, as in 2009). This pricing activity is under pressure from insufficient personal incomes, rising fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates and new construction.

Prices are expected to fall in the coming months, likely bottoming in mid-2016 and retreating toward the mean price trendline. The cooling of speculative fever and continually rising mortgage rates will prolong the falling trend in sales volume, pulling prices down in turn. Remember, real estate prices track and run with bond prices due to interest rate movement. A lag time of up to 12 months exists due to expectations of continued recent price movement — the sticky price phenomenon.

The graph tells the story – the higher-end market is ‘soft’, and only those with precision pricing are selling.

Posted by on Jan 8, 2015 in Forecasts, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Oct. ’14

San Diego Case Shiller Index

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index declined for the third consecutive month, but the rate of change is so small that even David Blitzer called San Diego, ‘flat’.

Here are the non-seasonally-adjusted readings for 2014:

Month
San Diego NSA Case-Shiller Index
Jan
194.94
Feb
196.97
Mar
199.45
Apr
200.81
May
201.99
Jun
203.10
Jul
203.68
Aug
203.47
Sep
203.22
Oct
203.15

The October reading is 4.2% higher than January’s low for the year, and 40.7% above the trough in April, 2009!

Shiller called the housing market, ‘fragile’, and mentioned his usual ‘anxiety’ that a slowdown could be a precursor to prices dropping.  Video was skyped from what had to be his office, which looks like a professor’s domain:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000342418

Posted by on Dec 30, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Sept. ’14

sep 14

We’ve doubled the number of negative readings of the local Case-Shiller Index, and they are picking up steam!

But seriously, any monthly change of less than 1% just means prices are stagnant, and in San Diego it’s been like that since the April reading.  If prices were flat during the prime selling season, we’re probably fortunate that they’ve held up this long.

Economist Robert Shiller told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” the reading was not exciting, and he noted that the winter season is historically slow for home sales.  ”We haven’t expected exciting growth for a while, but it does look like seasonally adjusted home prices are still growing,” he said.

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%
July ’14
+0.34%
+8.3%
August ’14
-0.08%
+6.2%
September ’14
-0.13%
+5.1%

Posted by on Nov 25, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 4 comments

SD Case-Shiller Tiered

We saw this week that the local seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index has been trending negative since April.  Here we see how the recent gains have been driven by the lower-end properties:

CSI tiered

The difference could simply be a percentage thing – a home’s value that goes from $300,000 to $400,000 has risen 33%, while a $700,000 home that goes up to $800,000 has only increased 14%.

But the underlying story is that the upper-end home values haven’t done much over the last 18 months.

Read more here:

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-tiered-home-pricing-2/1592/

An excerpt:

As in 2010, today’s price movement is the tail end of a mini-bubble, set into motion some 18 months earlier. This price rise was produced by short-lived speculator interference in 2013 (not a tax stimulus, as in 2009). This pricing activity is under pressure from insufficient personal incomes, rising fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates and new construction.

Prices are expected to continue to fall in the coming months, bottoming in 2015 and retreating toward the mean price trendline. The cooling of speculative fever and continually rising mortgage rates will prolong the falling trend in sales volume, pulling prices down in turn. Remember, real estate prices track and run with bond prices due to interest rate movement. A lag time of a couple of months exists due to remaining perceptions of past real estate price movement — the sticky price phenomenon.

Posted by on Nov 6, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Same-House Sales | 4 comments

Another Look at SD Case-Shiller Index

The folks at Case-Shiller used to publish both the seasonally-adjusted, and non-seasonally-adjusted numbers, but lately they have just gone with the non-seasonally-adjusted only.

The non-seasonally-adjusted index just posted its first month-over-month decline, but the seasonally-adjusted numbers (which Bill McBride prefers) for San Diego have been dropping since April:

san diego case shiller 5-year

SD CSI history

Posted by on Nov 4, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Aug 2014

case shiller san diego aug2014

We’ve gone negative!  The Case-Shiller Index for San Diego declined 0.08% in August from the previous month.  The sound bites won’t mention that we’re still up +5.07% year-to-date, which is a good eight-month run historically.  Instead, buyers will be more inclined to wait, and sellers will shrug it off:

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%
July ’14
+0.34%
+8.3%
Aug ’14
-0.08%
+6.2%

sd case shiller aug 2014

Here is the chart of the SD CSI Calendar Year Performance – what a ride:

Year
Annual Change
2004
+26.60%
2005
+6.64%
2006
-4.21%
2007
-14.97%
2008
-24.84%
2009
+2.71%
2010
+1.72%
2011
-5.38%
2012
+9.23%
2013
+17.99%

Posted by on Oct 28, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 4 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, July 2014

July 2014 C-S

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index continues its ride to flatsville, with the July reading rising a scant 0.34% month-over-month. The year-over-year comparison dipped into single digits too, rising 8.27%, which still sounds positive to me.

But the deceleration is in, and the month-over-month reading is likely to go negative – possibly as soon as next month.  But that will be the week of Halloween and well into the off-season, when not as many people will notice.

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%
July ’14
+0.34%
+8.3%

Case Shiller July 2014

Posted by on Sep 30, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

Case-Shiller Compared to Peak

Nick at the WSJ showed how the Case-Shiller Index increases are slowing, though it is worth pointing out that the index is still rising. I don’t think prices are rising much if at all, but the index is rising:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/08/26/how-home-prices-have-slowed-down-in-five-charts/

Here are  some individual cities compared to their peak:

nick

San Diego didn’t make the cut for that graph, but we are very similar to Los Angeles.  The San Diego Case-Shiller Index has risen less than 1%  per month in each of the last three months, so the idea of getting back to a 250 reading seems far off:

San Diego Case-Shiller Index:

18.8% below the peak in November, 2005, and up 10.2% year-over-year.

 

Case Shiller SD peak

Posted by on Sep 5, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

Collapse Recount

From Bloomberg.com:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/case-shiller-retrofit-shows-less-severe-u-s-home-price-slump.html

The collapse in U.S. home prices that stoked the worst recession since the Great Depression wasn’t quite as severe as initially estimated, according to data from S&P/Case-Shiller.

Property values nationally fell 26 percent from the February 2007 peak to the December 2011 trough, not 34 percent as previously reported, revised data showed last week. The index will now be issued monthly rather than quarterly.

The change is the result of CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX)’s $6 million purchase of the S&P/Case-Shiller index from technology company Fiserv Inc. in March 2013. Case-Shiller has spent more than a year retrofitting its model with CoreLogic’s bigger, higher-quality data set, leading to a change in how the index looks.

Posted by on Sep 3, 2014 in Coffee Bet, Same-House Sales | 1 comment