San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

Yesterday’s Zillow index showed San Diego’s pricing to be fairly flat, and now April’s Case-Shiller Index has a similar-sounding +0.8% increase year-over-year.

We’ve bounced back from six months of negative readings, just to get back to where we were last year – and we’re still not as high as the June and July 2018 readings:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.26
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.37
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.68
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.66
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.39
+1.2%
+1.3%
Apr
257.68
+0.5%
+0.8%

The high-tier index is similar with just a +0.5% increase over last April, and not as high as June, 2018:

From cnbc:

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

I calculated the monthly increase incorrectly last month – it’s right now, and it shows that the index has picked up steam lately. But we’re still slightly below last year’s peak of 258 in June & July:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.26
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.37
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.68
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.63
+1.2%
+1.3%

The index is 3.4% higher than it was at the beginning of 2018, but it could be worse.

This NYC broker says homeowners in Manhattan can figure what their home was worth in May, 2018, and then subtract 10% to find today’s value – yikes!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Feb

Hey, we had our first monthly increase since June!

Last year the index readings topped out in July, and if that pattern repeats, it will mean that today’s home prices will be the highest of the year.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.42
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.59
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.92
-0.7%
+2.3%
January ’19
251.37
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.70
+0.1%
+1.1%

Over the last week, we’ve seen soundbites on how home prices declined in Southern California and San Francisco for the first time in seven years, but they are talking about the median sales price – which declined a measly 0.1%.  Expect the talking heads to focus on up or down only.

We’re going to be lucky to keep pace with last year’s monthly increases:

Last year the February month-over-month increase was 1.1%, and this year it was only 0.1%.  But because the focus is so binary (up or down only), we might escape further scrutiny as long as we can hit a +0.1% each month.

But it’s pretty likely that our local year-over-year readings are going to go negative next month – right as the selling season wraps up.  Winter might start early this year!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan

I was so giddy yesterday about dropping rates that the latest Case-Shiller Index didn’t cross my mind. Our doomer guy jumped on the sixth consecutive decline above, but that was when we were nearing 5% mortgage rates and full market stall-out. Now that the sub-4% punch bowl is back, we should see the usual six months of increases begin again with the next reading:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.42
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.59
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.92
-0.7%
+2.3%
Jan
251.37
-0.2%
+1.3%

The 2.8% drop over the last six months is nothing but a flesh wound – sellers aren’t going to panic until there are big chunks of decline per month. The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005 – about where we are today!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Dec.

We are back to more-normal appreciation levels now.  After dropping for the last six months in a row, the non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index for San Diego is just +2.3% year-over-year.

In the graph above, you can see how the index goes up about ten points in the first half of every year, but then pricing tapers off.  Last year, the tapering started earlier, and was more pronounced.

It makes you wonder what will happen in 2019? The same? Or worse?  It won’t be better unless mortgage rates slip under 4%.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.48
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.41
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.25
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.06
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.44
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.67
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.91
-0.7%
+2.3%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005 – about where we are today!

“Slower price appreciation coupled with lower mortgage rates in 2019 should help homebuyers who haven’t been priced out of the market,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “While 2018 started with a real estate frenzy and ended with a fizzle, we could see 2019’s slow beginning start to pick up later in the year.”

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Nov

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index dropped again in November, which seems like 100 years ago now that we’re rolling into February. A couple of notes:

  1. If you like your data processed and refined, the seasonally-adjusted index has been flat the last four months. I like mine raw and uncooked.
  2. They revise these numbers slightly every month.

We are roughly back to where we were in March.  You could make the case that the better-quality homes sell for a premium during the selling season while the others wait, and then some of those go for a slight discount in the off-season.  It might be the pattern for every year, going forward.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.48
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.41
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.25
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.06
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.46
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.85
-0.6%
+3.3%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005.

San Diego Tiered Pricing Graph

No surprise the trend shows the higher the price, the softer the price increases.

The lower-end market keeps humming along, while the higher-end market isn’t – and the connection between the two is getting fuzzier by the day.

With the struggle of moving up or down being very real, we could see more disconnect between markets.

Let’s keep this in mind when analyzing trends – it’s more complex than ever.

https://journal.firsttuesday.us/san-diego-housing-indicators-2/29246/

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, October

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index dropped for the fourth month in a row, and was about the same as it was in April. We will probably keep heading downward for the next few months, but at least the latest reading wasn’t as bad as the last two months – only down 0.1%!

We will probably lose another 1% or 2% between now and Spring, 2019, which would put the index back to about where it was in February.

What happens in next year’s selling season will be the real test.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.48
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.41
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.18
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.06
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.76
-0.1%
+3.7%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005.

Shiller on Today’s Market

Link to NYTimes article

We are, once again, experiencing one of the greatest housing booms in United States history.

How long this will last and where it is heading next are impossible to know now.

But it is time to take notice: My data shows that this is the United States’ third biggest housing boom in the modern era.

Since February 2012, when the price declines associated with the last financial crisis ended, prices for existing homes in the United States have been rising steadily and enormously. According to the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (which I helped to create) as of September, the prices were 53 percent higher than they were at the bottom of the market in 2012.

That means, on average, a house that sold for, say, $200,000 in 2012 would bring over $300,000 in September.

Even after factoring in Consumer Price Index inflation, real existing home prices were up almost 40 percent during that period. That is a substantial increase in less than seven years.

(more…)

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index dropped for the third month in a row, and is now almost 1% below where it was in June.  It’s not a surprise to hear that we have tougher sledding in the off-season (see above).

We will probably lose another 1% or 2% between now and Spring, 2019, which would put the index back to about where it was in February.

What happens in next year’s selling season will be the real test.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.48
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.46
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.24
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.35
-0.3%
+3.9%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005.

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