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Jim Klinge
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701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Tiered Pricing

These are through May, and though all three are at new record levels, we should see the usual year-end leveling the rest of the way:

Posted by on Aug 10, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, May

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index had another strong reading for May, setting a new all-time high of 257.46!

“Home prices continue to rack up gains two to three times greater than the inflation rate,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The year-over-year increases in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index have topped 5% every month since August 2016.

Unlike the boom-bust period surrounding the financial crisis, price gains are consistent across the 20 cities tracked in the release; currently, the range of the largest to smallest price change is 10 percentage points compared to a 20 percentage point range since 2001, and a 25 percentage point range between 2006 and 2009. Not only are prices rising consistently, they are doing so across the country.”

“Continuing price increases appear to be affecting other housing statistics. Sales of existing single family homes – the market covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices – peaked last November and have declined for three months in a row. The number of pending home sales is drifting lower as is the number of existing homes for sale. Sales of new homes are also down and housing starts are flattening. Affordability – a measure based on income, mortgage rates and home prices – has gotten consistently worse over the last 18 months. All these indicators suggest that the combination of rising home prices and rising mortgage rates are beginning to affect the housing market.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.81
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.46
+0.6%
+7.3%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 3% above that now.  We can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year, just like it did the last two years!

Let’s note that in 4Q17, the cumulative change for the index was -0.1%.

Posted by on Jul 31, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index had another strong reading for April, setting a new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.44
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.71
+0.9%
+7.7%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 2% above that now, thanks to inflation.  This year is starting off much like 2017, and we can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year.

“Home prices continued their climb,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Cities west of the Rocky Mountains continue to lead price increases with Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco ranking 1-2-3 based on price movements in the trailing 12 months. The favorable economy and moderate mortgage rates both support recent gains in housing.”

“However, if one adjusts the price movements for inflation since 2006, a very different picture emerges,” noted Blitzer. “Only three cities – Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – are ahead in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms. The National Index is 14 percent below its boom-time peak and Las Vegas, the city with the longest road to a new high, is 47 percent below its peak when inflation is factored in.”

Posted by on Jun 26, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index continued its assault on the record book in March, setting another new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.44
+1.0%
+7.6%

The reading from the previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. From cnbc:

Larger cities, however, are seeing bigger gains. The nation’s 10 largest metropolitan markets saw home prices increase 6.5 percent annually, up from 6.4 percent in the previous month. The 20 largest cities posted a 6.8 percent annual increase, unchanged from the previous month.

“Looking across various national statistics on sales of new or existing homes, permits for new construction, and financing terms, two figures that stand out are rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of existing homes for sale,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Months-supply, which combines inventory levels and sales, is currently at 3.8 months, lower than the levels of the 1990s, before the housing boom and bust. Until inventories increase faster than sales, or the economy slows significantly, home prices are likely to continue rising.”

Seattle, Las Vegas and San Francisco continue to lead in price gains. Seattle home values rose 13 percent annually. Twelve of the top 20 cities saw greater annual price increases in March compared with February.

Posted by on May 29, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, February

The February reading of the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller index reached a new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%

The previous high reading was 250.34 in November, 2005.

“Year-over-year prices measured by the National index have increased continuously for the past 70 months, since May 2012. Over that time, the price increases averaged 6 percent per year,” noted David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With expectations for continued economic growth and further employment gains, the current run of rising prices is likely to continue.”

Posted by on Apr 24, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Same-House Sales | 11 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, January

After sputtering over the last three months, the latest reading of the SD Case-Shiller Index showed some pop – like it did last January:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

U.S. home prices posted another big gain in January, pushed higher by a shortage of homes for sale. Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index climbed 6.2 percent in January from a year earlier. That nearly matches December’s 6.3 percent gain, which had been the fastest 12-month growth in almost three years. The January increase was in line with economists’ expectations.

“The home price surge continues,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Posted by on Mar 27, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 7 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, December

We stopped our two-month stumble and got back into the positive, MoM, and wrapped up 2017 with a solid 7.4% increase in the index for the year:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

From David Blitzer:

“The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release.

“Across the 20 cities covered by S&P Corelogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62 percent; over the same period, inflation was 12.4 percent. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices.”

Posted by on Feb 27, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, November

Last month, the initial reading of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index was flat, and now they adjusted it to a minor difference (-0.01%) from the previous month.  Today’s reading (for November) dropped even more (though the seasonally-adjusted rose +0.03%):

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.60
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.82
-0.3%
+7.4%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005. It doesn’t look like we will match that in 2017.

In spite of the blip, David Blitzer includes San Diego in his happy talk, and also mentions that demand is not the primary factor in rising home prices, which makes you think he’s never been out looking at open houses on the weekend – at least not around San Diego:

“Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index year-over-year increases have been 5% or more for 16 months; the 20-City index has climbed at this pace for 28 months.

Given slow population and income growth since the financial crisis, demand is not the primary factor in rising home prices. Construction costs, as measured by National Income and Product Accounts, recovered after the financial crisis, increasing between 2% and 4% annually, but do not explain all of the home price gains.

From 2010 to the latest month of data, the construction of single family homes slowed, with single family home starts averaging 632,000 annually. This is less than the annual rate during the 2007-2009 financial crisis of 698,000, which is far less than the long-term average of slightly more than one million annually from 1959 to 2000 and 1.5 million during the 2001-2006 boom years. Without more supply, home prices may continue to substantially outpace inflation.”

“Looking across the 20 cities covered here, those that enjoyed the fastest price increases before the 2007-2009 financial crisis are again among those cities experiencing the largest gains. San Diego, Los Angeles, Miami and Las Vegas, price leaders in the boom before the crisis, are again seeing strong price gains. They have been joined by three cities where prices were above average during the financial crisis and continue to rise rapidly – Dallas, Portland OR, and Seattle.”

Posted by on Jan 30, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments