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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

SD Case-Shiller Index, Jan. 2015

jan 2015

After declining four out of the last five months, the Case-Shiller Index for San Diego rose in January by 0.71%.  The year-over-year change was 5.1%, which is pretty hefty considering how high prices already were at the beginning of 2014.

Dave rains on the parade, as usual:

“Despite price gains, the housing market faces some difficulties. Home prices are rising roughly twice as fast as wages, putting pressure on potential homebuyers and heightening the risk that any uptick in interest rates could be a major setback,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Posted by on Mar 31, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller, Dec. 2014

SD Case Shiller Dec 2014

The previous reading of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index was +0.29%, and the latest gave almost all of that back.  December’s reading was -0.24%, making it four out of the last five that were in negative territory.  But the three-month above shows that the end of 2014 was flatsville.

Bob Shiller should be checking in later with his usual whamsy-pamsy remarks, and Dr. Blitzer continues to be focused on what’s wrong – he has to be a lot of fun at parties:

“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.

Posted by on Feb 24, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 5 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Nov. 2014

case shiller november 14

The local Case-Shiller index ended its three-month skid in November, rising 0.29% above October’s mark.  It will probably bounce around a bit from now on.

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index is 24% higher than it was in Nov. 2012.

Minor movements would seem to be much preferred to the violent ups and downs of previous years, but David Blitzer isn’t happy enough.  Either that, or he is struggling with his hyperboles:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102371913

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 4.3 percent in November from the prior year, the slowest since October 2007 although it matched analyst expectations. This compared with a 4.5 percent annual increase in October.

“With the spring home buying season, and spring training, still a month or two away, the housing recovery is barely on first base,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

“Prospects for a home run in 2015 aren’t good,” he added.

Posted by on Jan 27, 2015 in Same-House Sales | 0 comments

NSDCC Annual Sales

How did 2014 stack up to previous years?

Year
No. of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2002
3,717
$630,000
38
2003
3,932
$732,500
34
2004
3,363
$948,000
27
2005
3,014
$1,000,000
40
2006
2,626
$985,000
51
2007
2,479
$1,000,000
49
2008
2,037
$890,000
54
2009
2,223
$817,000
52
2010
2,461
$830,000
46
2011
2,562
$825,000
57
2012
3,154
$830,000
46
2013
3,218
$952,250
25
2014
2,838
$1,025,000
28

A.  Look at the similarities between the median SP in 2003-2005, and the last three years.  In both cases, the frenzy caused a large increase one year, followed by a smaller jump the next year.  It then plateaued in 2006 and 2007, in spite of the easiest credit ever.  I think we can expect a similar plateau-like event in pricing.

B.  In 2014, we had 3% fewer listings, but 12% fewer sales than in 2013.  The pricing strategies being employed are less effective than before.

C.  Over the last two years, more than half of the sales occurred within the first month the house was on the market.

Expect more of the same this year!

Posted by on Jan 13, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

SD Lower Tier Is Hotter

SD Tiered

The ivory-tower opinion below is blaming speculators for a mini-bubble, but around here I’d say that over 90% of the home sales were regular, organic real estate transactions in 2013.  Prices may fall in the coming months (slightly), and if they do, it will be because buyers are being patient and picking off only the best buys.

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-tiered-home-pricing/

Home prices displayed mixed signals in Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego in the single month of October 2014. Prices dipped in San Diego, remained roughly level in Los Angeles and rose slightly in San Francisco. Low-tier property prices are still on average 10% higher than one year earlier. Mid-tier and high-tier prices are 6% higher.

As in 2010, today’s price movement is the tail end of a mini-bubble, set into motion some 18 months earlier. This price rise was produced by short-lived speculator interference in 2013 (not a tax stimulus, as in 2009). This pricing activity is under pressure from insufficient personal incomes, rising fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates and new construction.

Prices are expected to fall in the coming months, likely bottoming in mid-2016 and retreating toward the mean price trendline. The cooling of speculative fever and continually rising mortgage rates will prolong the falling trend in sales volume, pulling prices down in turn. Remember, real estate prices track and run with bond prices due to interest rate movement. A lag time of up to 12 months exists due to expectations of continued recent price movement — the sticky price phenomenon.

The graph tells the story – the higher-end market is ‘soft’, and only those with precision pricing are selling.

Posted by on Jan 8, 2015 in Forecasts, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Oct. ’14

San Diego Case Shiller Index

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index declined for the third consecutive month, but the rate of change is so small that even David Blitzer called San Diego, ‘flat’.

Here are the non-seasonally-adjusted readings for 2014:

Month
San Diego NSA Case-Shiller Index
Jan
194.94
Feb
196.97
Mar
199.45
Apr
200.81
May
201.99
Jun
203.10
Jul
203.68
Aug
203.47
Sep
203.22
Oct
203.15

The October reading is 4.2% higher than January’s low for the year, and 40.7% above the trough in April, 2009!

Shiller called the housing market, ‘fragile’, and mentioned his usual ‘anxiety’ that a slowdown could be a precursor to prices dropping.  Video was skyped from what had to be his office, which looks like a professor’s domain:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000342418

Posted by on Dec 30, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Sept. ’14

sep 14

We’ve doubled the number of negative readings of the local Case-Shiller Index, and they are picking up steam!

But seriously, any monthly change of less than 1% just means prices are stagnant, and in San Diego it’s been like that since the April reading.  If prices were flat during the prime selling season, we’re probably fortunate that they’ve held up this long.

Economist Robert Shiller told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” the reading was not exciting, and he noted that the winter season is historically slow for home sales.  ”We haven’t expected exciting growth for a while, but it does look like seasonally adjusted home prices are still growing,” he said.

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%
July ’14
+0.34%
+8.3%
August ’14
-0.08%
+6.2%
September ’14
-0.13%
+5.1%

Posted by on Nov 25, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 4 comments

SD Case-Shiller Tiered

We saw this week that the local seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index has been trending negative since April.  Here we see how the recent gains have been driven by the lower-end properties:

CSI tiered

The difference could simply be a percentage thing – a home’s value that goes from $300,000 to $400,000 has risen 33%, while a $700,000 home that goes up to $800,000 has only increased 14%.

But the underlying story is that the upper-end home values haven’t done much over the last 18 months.

Read more here:

http://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-tiered-home-pricing-2/1592/

An excerpt:

As in 2010, today’s price movement is the tail end of a mini-bubble, set into motion some 18 months earlier. This price rise was produced by short-lived speculator interference in 2013 (not a tax stimulus, as in 2009). This pricing activity is under pressure from insufficient personal incomes, rising fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rates and new construction.

Prices are expected to continue to fall in the coming months, bottoming in 2015 and retreating toward the mean price trendline. The cooling of speculative fever and continually rising mortgage rates will prolong the falling trend in sales volume, pulling prices down in turn. Remember, real estate prices track and run with bond prices due to interest rate movement. A lag time of a couple of months exists due to remaining perceptions of past real estate price movement — the sticky price phenomenon.

Posted by on Nov 6, 2014 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Same-House Sales | 4 comments

Another Look at SD Case-Shiller Index

The folks at Case-Shiller used to publish both the seasonally-adjusted, and non-seasonally-adjusted numbers, but lately they have just gone with the non-seasonally-adjusted only.

The non-seasonally-adjusted index just posted its first month-over-month decline, but the seasonally-adjusted numbers (which Bill McBride prefers) for San Diego have been dropping since April:

san diego case shiller 5-year

SD CSI history

Posted by on Nov 4, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, Aug 2014

case shiller san diego aug2014

We’ve gone negative!  The Case-Shiller Index for San Diego declined 0.08% in August from the previous month.  The sound bites won’t mention that we’re still up +5.07% year-to-date, which is a good eight-month run historically.  Instead, buyers will be more inclined to wait, and sellers will shrug it off:

These are the Case-Shiller Index NSA changes below for San Diego:

Month
M-O-M
Y-O-Y
Jan ’13
-1.0%
+9.8%
Feb ’13
+1.0%
+10.2%
March ’13
+2.0%
+12.1%
April ’13
+2.8%
+14.7%
May ’13
+3.2%
+17.3%
June ’13
+2.8%
+19.3%
July ’13
+2.0%
+20.4%
August ’13
+1.8%
+21.5%
September ’13
+0.9%
+20.9%
October ’13
+0.3%
+19.7%
November ’13
+0.0%
+18.7%
December ’13
-0.1%
+18.0%
January ’14
+0.6%
+19.4%
February ’14
+1.0%
+19.9%
March ’14
+1.3%
+18.9%
April ’14
+0.8%
+15.3%
May ’14
+0.5%
+12.4%
June ’14
+0.68%
+10.2%
July ’14
+0.34%
+8.3%
Aug ’14
-0.08%
+6.2%

sd case shiller aug 2014

Here is the chart of the SD CSI Calendar Year Performance – what a ride:

Year
Annual Change
2004
+26.60%
2005
+6.64%
2006
-4.21%
2007
-14.97%
2008
-24.84%
2009
+2.71%
2010
+1.72%
2011
-5.38%
2012
+9.23%
2013
+17.99%

Posted by on Oct 28, 2014 in Same-House Sales | 4 comments