Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Case Shiller Feb 2013

Not only do we expect higher, but now much higher readings from the monthly Case-Shiller index.  The consensus expected +9.0% nationally, and it came in at +9.3% for the 20-city composite – the biggest gain since May 2006.

“Home prices continue to show solid increases across all 20 cities,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded their highest annual growth rates since May 2006; seasonally adjusted monthly data show all 20 cities saw higher prices for two months in a row – the last time that happened was in early 2005.

“It is very strong, it’s a solid rebound, but I would not call it a bubble,” said Blitzer about housing.

San Diego’s Case-Shiller index topped the national composite, with +10% improvements both the seasonally-adjusted, and non-seasonally adjusted readings.

This is the 13th month in a row that we’ve seen gains, which means the Y-O-Y readings will be on top of a previous gain as well.  But we should see more eye-popping results in the next couple of months – probably higher than 10% increases year-over-year.

For example, here are the SD monthly average $/sf:

By the time we see the Case-Shiller March and April readings, will buyer exhaustion be setting in?  If so, more double-digit gains may cause them to surrender, especially when they see it tacked on to already-frothy list prices.

Shiller Says “Auspicious Time To Buy”

Thanks to Stormin for sending in this post from Bill at CR:

I think Professor Shiller has changed his view … writing in the NY Times: Before  Housing Bubbles, There Was Land Fever

“With rates now relatively low, this could be an auspicious time to buy a house  with a fixed-rate mortgage. That could make good sense for people who aren’t out  to bet on the housing or mortgage markets but are instead focused on settling  into a home  for the long term.”

It might be an “auspicious” time to buy … if someone can find a home for sale  (there is so little inventory in many areas).

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/04/shiller-on-housing-could-be-auspicious.html#cDUgYgbgQI4qOOo0.99

San Diego Case-Shiller Index Jan ’13

San Diego’s latest seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index increased for the 12th month in a row:

Jan. 2012: 150.74

Dec. 2012: 164.87

Jan. 2013: 165.48

Year-over-year: +9.8%

Month-over-month: +0.4%

Yesterday an appraiser confirmed that he is adjusting comps for appreciation, and mortgage underwriters are going for it. He said that adding 0.5% to 1.0% per month is acceptable.

A twelve-month winning streak, and banks allowing appreciation in appraisals - what’s next, no-doc loans?

P.S. The previous month-over-month difference was +1.0%.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: San Diego, CA data by YCharts

SD Case-Shiller +9.2% Y-O-Y

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index rose 9.2% year-over-year.

While a 9.2% increase in home prices would have been shocking a year ago, we have come to expect it today.

The month-over-month increase was 1.07%, which should be about what we see for the rest of 2013.  If the Case-Shiller Index didn’t exclude flips owned less than six months, the number would be even higher.

Today’s SA reading is 14.2% higher than the trough reached in April, 2009.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: San Diego, CA data by YCharts

Both the seasonally-adjusted, and non-seasonally-adjusted numbers rose by the same percentage, which has happened the last few months.

SD Case-Shiller Up 8% Y-O-Y

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, non-seasonally-adjusted (SA was also +8%):

November 2011:  151.45

November 2012:  163.58

Year-Over-Year Change: +8%

From the S&P press release:

“Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of 20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while Cleveland was flat.

Regional patterns are shifting as well. The Southwest – Las Vegas and Phoenix – are staging a strong comeback with the Southeast — Miami and Tampa close behind. The sunbelt, which bore the brunt of the housing collapse, is back in a leadership position. California is also doing well while the northeast and industrial Midwest is lagging somewhat.

“Housing is clearly recovering. Prices are rising as are both new and existing home sales. Existing home sales in November were 5.0 million, highest since November 2009. New Home sales at 398,000 were the highest since June 2010. These figures confirm that housing is contributing to economic growth.

The Case-Shiller process screens out any properties re-sold within six months.  Because of market efficiencies, most flippers aren’t included in their +8% year-over-year calculation.  For the 200 properties he sold last year, J. Mann’s average was 16 days on market.

“Housing is clearly recovering”, David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indexes, said in a statement.

“There’s a lot of momentum,” he added during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “It shows up in all the housing statistics, not just the prices. As far as I can see it’s going to continue well into the new year.”

The spread between historically low interest rates and the money that real estate generates is “truly astonishing,” Starwood Capital Group Chairman and CEO Barry Sternlicht told CNBC on Tuesday.

“You can buy assets below replacement costs still,” he said in a “Squawk Box” interview. “You can finance them with positive leverage — meaning the cost of borrowing is much lower than the yield on the property.”

Sternlicht pointed out, “Never seen it in my career. It’s truly astonishing. This is the ‘Goldilocks Period’ for real estate.”

For people looking to buy or sell a home, he predicted, “You’re not going to see housing prices runaway. I think they’ll continue at a really modest three to four percent annual growth now.”