Menu
TwitterRssFacebook
Klinge Realty
More Links

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

Usual Seasonal Change, or Panic Time?

Rob Dawg predicted it that any and all appreciation will happen in the first half of the year – and if we’re just talking about the general trends in local San Diego pricing, that’s how it has been lately.

As the red circles show in the graph above, the non-seasonally-adjusted SD Case-Shiller Index has a history of cooling off in the second half of the year.

Will the same seasonal event happen again in 2018?

Most likely – our June and July index numbers were the same this year, so it’s likely to stay flat, or even soften a bit like last year.  But were talking fractions, not big chunks.

The number of sales are another thing, however.  Few sellers NEED to sell, so while buyers might offer less, it takes two to tango.

The CNBC article that tried to paint a negative slant on the New York market included this quote:

“Offers 20 percent and 25 percent below asking prices began to flow in, a phenomenon last seen in 2009,” wrote Warburg Realty founder and CEO Frederick W. Peters”.

While few sellers struck deals at those radically reduced offer prices, they signal a major shift in our marketplace, one which has been building for at least 18 months,” Peters said.

Sellers aren’t going for it.

They might knock off a few points, but unless they are unusually desperate, they are going to sit on their presumed equity and wait until next year if they have to.  Sales would have to grind to a halt for sellers to think about dumping on price.

There will be just enough action to keep the sellers optimistic too.  Here are a set of homes that were marked pending today that could make you think everything is fine:

Another agent has this one, but you saw it here last time around:

This is in La Costa Valley, which has been starting to show it age when you’re talking about 20-year old Carlsbad tract houses now over a million. But this had the updated and appealing look, and the first buyer took it:

My friends in Olde Carlsbad went pending too:

I know they aren’t closed yet, and at least one of those will probably fall out.  My point?  The market isn’t dead, or even sleeping – it’s just finding its way.

Posted by on Oct 1, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, July

CNBC still looking through their doom-colored glasses, while ignoring the history of price increases cooling off this time of year (2018’s pricing just started cooling off earlier):

Home prices are still rising, but the pace of the gains continues to slow, as potential homebuyers hit an affordability wall and sellers cave to the new reality.

“Rising homes prices are beginning to catch up with housing,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Sales of existing single family homes have dropped each month for the last six months and are now at the level of July 2016. Housing starts rose in August due to strong gains in multifamily construction. The index of housing affordability has worsened substantially since the start of the year.”

Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continue to see the biggest annual gains in home prices, with increases of 13.7 percent, 12.1 percent and 10.8 percent respectively. Five of the 20 cities saw home price gains accelerate annually compared with June.

Since home prices last bottomed in 2012, following the epic housing crash, 12 of the 20 cities tracked by S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller have reached new highs, although those are not adjusted for inflation. Those that are still lower were some of the cities that saw the greatest gains during the last housing boom, like Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All those cities are still seeing strong price gains now, especially Las Vegas, which leads all the cities in gains.

While demand for housing is still strong, a continued shortage of for-sale listings has overheated prices throughout much of the past year, and buyers stepped back.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.66
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.09
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.52
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.55
+0.0%
+6.2%

These get revised every month, so it’s likely that this July index will be lower than June the next time you see it on October 30th.

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 3% above that now.

We can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year, just like it did the last two years! Let’s note that in 4Q17, the cumulative change for the index was -0.1%.

Posted by on Sep 25, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

Another new record!  But we are cruising into Plateau City. From cnbc.com:

Homebuyers are pulling back, and prices are finally following.

Home prices are still rising, but the gains are shrinking. In June, prices nationally rose 6.2 percent year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. That is down from the 6.4 percent annual gain in May.

Home prices in the nation’s 10 largest housing markets rose 6 percent annually, down from 6.2 percent in the previous month. In the 20 largest markets, prices were up 6.3 percent, down from 6.5 percent in May.

“Even as home prices keep climbing, we are seeing signs that growth is easing in the housing market,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. “Sales of both new and existing homes are roughly flat over the last six months amidst news stories of an increase in the number of homes for sale in some markets.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.81
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.46
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.69
+0.5%
+6.9%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 3% above that now.  We can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year, just like it did the last two years!

Let’s note that in 4Q17, the cumulative change for the index was -0.1%.

Posted by on Aug 28, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Tiered Pricing

These are through May, and though all three are at new record levels, we should see the usual year-end leveling the rest of the way:

Posted by on Aug 10, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, May

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index had another strong reading for May, setting a new all-time high of 257.46!

“Home prices continue to rack up gains two to three times greater than the inflation rate,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The year-over-year increases in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index have topped 5% every month since August 2016.

Unlike the boom-bust period surrounding the financial crisis, price gains are consistent across the 20 cities tracked in the release; currently, the range of the largest to smallest price change is 10 percentage points compared to a 20 percentage point range since 2001, and a 25 percentage point range between 2006 and 2009. Not only are prices rising consistently, they are doing so across the country.”

“Continuing price increases appear to be affecting other housing statistics. Sales of existing single family homes – the market covered by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices – peaked last November and have declined for three months in a row. The number of pending home sales is drifting lower as is the number of existing homes for sale. Sales of new homes are also down and housing starts are flattening. Affordability – a measure based on income, mortgage rates and home prices – has gotten consistently worse over the last 18 months. All these indicators suggest that the combination of rising home prices and rising mortgage rates are beginning to affect the housing market.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.81
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.46
+0.6%
+7.3%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 3% above that now.  We can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year, just like it did the last two years!

Let’s note that in 4Q17, the cumulative change for the index was -0.1%.

Posted by on Jul 31, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index had another strong reading for April, setting a new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.44
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.71
+0.9%
+7.7%

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. We are 2% above that now, thanks to inflation.  This year is starting off much like 2017, and we can probably expect the SDCSI to cool down in the second half of the year.

“Home prices continued their climb,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Cities west of the Rocky Mountains continue to lead price increases with Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco ranking 1-2-3 based on price movements in the trailing 12 months. The favorable economy and moderate mortgage rates both support recent gains in housing.”

“However, if one adjusts the price movements for inflation since 2006, a very different picture emerges,” noted Blitzer. “Only three cities – Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – are ahead in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms. The National Index is 14 percent below its boom-time peak and Las Vegas, the city with the longest road to a new high, is 47 percent below its peak when inflation is factored in.”

Posted by on Jun 26, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index continued its assault on the record book in March, setting another new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.44
+1.0%
+7.6%

The reading from the previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005. From cnbc:

Larger cities, however, are seeing bigger gains. The nation’s 10 largest metropolitan markets saw home prices increase 6.5 percent annually, up from 6.4 percent in the previous month. The 20 largest cities posted a 6.8 percent annual increase, unchanged from the previous month.

“Looking across various national statistics on sales of new or existing homes, permits for new construction, and financing terms, two figures that stand out are rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of existing homes for sale,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Months-supply, which combines inventory levels and sales, is currently at 3.8 months, lower than the levels of the 1990s, before the housing boom and bust. Until inventories increase faster than sales, or the economy slows significantly, home prices are likely to continue rising.”

Seattle, Las Vegas and San Francisco continue to lead in price gains. Seattle home values rose 13 percent annually. Twelve of the top 20 cities saw greater annual price increases in March compared with February.

Posted by on May 29, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, February

The February reading of the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller index reached a new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%

The previous high reading was 250.34 in November, 2005.

“Year-over-year prices measured by the National index have increased continuously for the past 70 months, since May 2012. Over that time, the price increases averaged 6 percent per year,” noted David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With expectations for continued economic growth and further employment gains, the current run of rising prices is likely to continue.”

Posted by on Apr 24, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Same-House Sales | 11 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, January

After sputtering over the last three months, the latest reading of the SD Case-Shiller Index showed some pop – like it did last January:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

U.S. home prices posted another big gain in January, pushed higher by a shortage of homes for sale. Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index climbed 6.2 percent in January from a year earlier. That nearly matches December’s 6.3 percent gain, which had been the fastest 12-month growth in almost three years. The January increase was in line with economists’ expectations.

“The home price surge continues,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Posted by on Mar 27, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 7 comments