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Jim Klinge
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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, February

The February reading of the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller index reached a new all-time high!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%

The previous high reading was 250.34 in November, 2005.

“Year-over-year prices measured by the National index have increased continuously for the past 70 months, since May 2012. Over that time, the price increases averaged 6 percent per year,” noted David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “With expectations for continued economic growth and further employment gains, the current run of rising prices is likely to continue.”

Posted by on Apr 24, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Same-House Sales | 11 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, January

After sputtering over the last three months, the latest reading of the SD Case-Shiller Index showed some pop – like it did last January:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

U.S. home prices posted another big gain in January, pushed higher by a shortage of homes for sale. Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index climbed 6.2 percent in January from a year earlier. That nearly matches December’s 6.3 percent gain, which had been the fastest 12-month growth in almost three years. The January increase was in line with economists’ expectations.

“The home price surge continues,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Posted by on Mar 27, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 7 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, December

We stopped our two-month stumble and got back into the positive, MoM, and wrapped up 2017 with a solid 7.4% increase in the index for the year:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

From David Blitzer:

“The rise in home prices should be causing the same nervous wonder aimed at the stock market after its recent bout of volatility,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release.

“Across the 20 cities covered by S&P Corelogic Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the average increase from the financial crisis low is 62 percent; over the same period, inflation was 12.4 percent. Even considering the recovery from the financial crisis, we are experiencing a boom in home prices.”

Posted by on Feb 27, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, November

Last month, the initial reading of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index was flat, and now they adjusted it to a minor difference (-0.01%) from the previous month.  Today’s reading (for November) dropped even more (though the seasonally-adjusted rose +0.03%):

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.60
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.82
-0.3%
+7.4%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005. It doesn’t look like we will match that in 2017.

In spite of the blip, David Blitzer includes San Diego in his happy talk, and also mentions that demand is not the primary factor in rising home prices, which makes you think he’s never been out looking at open houses on the weekend – at least not around San Diego:

“Home prices continue to rise three times faster than the rate of inflation,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index year-over-year increases have been 5% or more for 16 months; the 20-City index has climbed at this pace for 28 months.

Given slow population and income growth since the financial crisis, demand is not the primary factor in rising home prices. Construction costs, as measured by National Income and Product Accounts, recovered after the financial crisis, increasing between 2% and 4% annually, but do not explain all of the home price gains.

From 2010 to the latest month of data, the construction of single family homes slowed, with single family home starts averaging 632,000 annually. This is less than the annual rate during the 2007-2009 financial crisis of 698,000, which is far less than the long-term average of slightly more than one million annually from 1959 to 2000 and 1.5 million during the 2001-2006 boom years. Without more supply, home prices may continue to substantially outpace inflation.”

“Looking across the 20 cities covered here, those that enjoyed the fastest price increases before the 2007-2009 financial crisis are again among those cities experiencing the largest gains. San Diego, Los Angeles, Miami and Las Vegas, price leaders in the boom before the crisis, are again seeing strong price gains. They have been joined by three cities where prices were above average during the financial crisis and continue to rise rapidly – Dallas, Portland OR, and Seattle.”

Posted by on Jan 30, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller, October

There might be a little hiccup here on the reporting of the latest SD Case-Shiller Index – or it really flattened out in October.  The index is being reported as the same for September and October:

Here’s what I used last month:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here is how it reads today directly from the Standard and Poor’s website:

FRED usually reports their data a few hours later, so I’ll check to see if it changes.  But for now, it looks like our local index hit the skids in 4Q17.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Update: Yep, FRED is reporting the exact same number as in September:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.66
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.66
+0.0%
+8.1%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

From cnbc.com

“Since home prices are rising faster than wages, salaries, and inflation, some areas could see potential home buyers compelled to look at renting,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The strongest annual gains occurred in Seattle, where prices have shot up 12.7 percent since October 2015. Las Vegas has seen prices increase 10.2 percent, while San Diego notched growth of 8.1 percent. Of the 20 metro areas tracked by the index, Washington, DC reported the smallest price gain with 3.1 percent.

As the economy has steadily recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, demand from would-be buyers has steadily improved. The 17-year low unemployment rate of 4.1 percent has left more Americans confident enough to put bids on homes. Sales of existing homes in November reached their strongest pace since December 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors. But the sales growth hasn’t compelled more people to list their homes for sale, as the number of properties on the market has tumbled nearly 10 percent in the past 12 months.

 

FRED’s re-calibration on the September index – that is flat, and not +0.01%:

Posted by on Dec 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept.

Our index showed the smallest monthly gain of the year in September, and it seals our fate – we’re not going to have double-digit appreciation this year.  But the 8.2% gain we are tracking year-over-year still looks pretty good!

“Most economic indicators suggest that home prices can see further gains,” S&P Dow Jones indexes managing director David Blitzer said, before adding the index is rising “at the fastest annual rate since June 2014.”

Seasonally adjusted, 13 of the 20 cities in the composite reported price increases in the year ending September 2017. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.66
+0.5%
+8.2%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Nov 28, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 9 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

Our San Diego Case-Shiller Index is having its best year since 2013, and on track to set a new record later this year!

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.1% annual gain in August, up from 5.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.3%, up from 5.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, up from 5.8% the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Seattle led the way with a 13.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 8.6% increase, and San Diego with a 7.8% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2017 versus the year ending July 2017.

“Home price increases appear to be unstoppable,” S&P Dow Jones indexes managing director David Blitzer said, before adding that national “home prices have reached new all-time highs.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Oct 31, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 5 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, July

Our monthly change in the local Case-Shiller Index came back to earth, somewhat, and it’s probably what we can expect for the rest of the year.

If the index keeps increasing at the +0.6% clip every month, then we will hit a new all-time record in December!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+0.9%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.61
+0.6%
+7.1%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Sep 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

With September starting on Friday, the June report feels a bit historical, especially when it is a weighted three-month average.  But it shows that the first half of 2017 was strong sellers’ market in San Diego:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+0.9%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%

At this rate (+5.4% in six months), we’re going to set a new record this year!

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

“The trend of increasing home prices is continuing,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “Price increases are supported by a tight housing market” with both the number of homes for sale and days a house is on the market declining for the past four to five years.

“Rising prices are the principal factor driving affordability down,” Blitzer said.

Posted by on Aug 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 5 comments