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Jim Klinge
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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Case-Shiller, October

There might be a little hiccup here on the reporting of the latest SD Case-Shiller Index – or it really flattened out in October.  The index is being reported as the same for September and October:

Here’s what I used last month:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here is how it reads today directly from the Standard and Poor’s website:

FRED usually reports their data a few hours later, so I’ll check to see if it changes.  But for now, it looks like our local index hit the skids in 4Q17.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Update: Yep, FRED is reporting the exact same number as in September:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.66
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.66
+0.0%
+8.1%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

From cnbc.com

“Since home prices are rising faster than wages, salaries, and inflation, some areas could see potential home buyers compelled to look at renting,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The strongest annual gains occurred in Seattle, where prices have shot up 12.7 percent since October 2015. Las Vegas has seen prices increase 10.2 percent, while San Diego notched growth of 8.1 percent. Of the 20 metro areas tracked by the index, Washington, DC reported the smallest price gain with 3.1 percent.

As the economy has steadily recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, demand from would-be buyers has steadily improved. The 17-year low unemployment rate of 4.1 percent has left more Americans confident enough to put bids on homes. Sales of existing homes in November reached their strongest pace since December 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors. But the sales growth hasn’t compelled more people to list their homes for sale, as the number of properties on the market has tumbled nearly 10 percent in the past 12 months.

 

FRED’s re-calibration on the September index – that is flat, and not +0.01%:

Posted by on Dec 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept.

Our index showed the smallest monthly gain of the year in September, and it seals our fate – we’re not going to have double-digit appreciation this year.  But the 8.2% gain we are tracking year-over-year still looks pretty good!

“Most economic indicators suggest that home prices can see further gains,” S&P Dow Jones indexes managing director David Blitzer said, before adding the index is rising “at the fastest annual rate since June 2014.”

Seasonally adjusted, 13 of the 20 cities in the composite reported price increases in the year ending September 2017. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.66
+0.5%
+8.2%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Nov 28, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 9 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

Our San Diego Case-Shiller Index is having its best year since 2013, and on track to set a new record later this year!

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.1% annual gain in August, up from 5.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.3%, up from 5.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, up from 5.8% the previous month.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Seattle led the way with a 13.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 8.6% increase, and San Diego with a 7.8% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2017 versus the year ending July 2017.

“Home price increases appear to be unstoppable,” S&P Dow Jones indexes managing director David Blitzer said, before adding that national “home prices have reached new all-time highs.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Oct 31, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 5 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, July

Our monthly change in the local Case-Shiller Index came back to earth, somewhat, and it’s probably what we can expect for the rest of the year.

If the index keeps increasing at the +0.6% clip every month, then we will hit a new all-time record in December!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+0.9%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.61
+0.6%
+7.1%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Sep 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

With September starting on Friday, the June report feels a bit historical, especially when it is a weighted three-month average.  But it shows that the first half of 2017 was strong sellers’ market in San Diego:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+0.9%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%

At this rate (+5.4% in six months), we’re going to set a new record this year!

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

“The trend of increasing home prices is continuing,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “Price increases are supported by a tight housing market” with both the number of homes for sale and days a house is on the market declining for the past four to five years.

“Rising prices are the principal factor driving affordability down,” Blitzer said.

Posted by on Aug 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 5 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, May

The fifth strong month in a row – our index is going up almost 1% per month:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%
November
228.89
+0.2%
+5.8%
December
229.41
+0.2%
+5.4%
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+0.9%
+6.5%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Save

Posted by on Jul 25, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

Four strong months in a row – at this pace, our local Case-Shiller Index will rise about 10%-12% this year!  This is the non-seasonally-adjusted index below. The seasonally-adjusted was slightly higher at 237.79.

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the April increase in prices shows demand for homes is rising but the supply of homes has hardly kept up.

“The question is not if home prices can climb without any limit; they can’t,” Blitzer said in a statement. “Rather, will home price gains gently slow or will they crash and take the economy down with them? For the moment, conditions appear favorable for avoiding a crash.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
December
203.45
-0.3%
+5.0%
January ’15
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.94
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.52
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.78
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.58
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.34
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.48
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.62
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.35
+0.3%
+6.0%
December
217.67
+0.7%
+7.2%
January ’16
218.79
+0.4%
+6.9%
February
219.00
+0.1%
+6.4%
March
221.34
+1.0%
+6.2%
April
222.99
+0.8%
+6.3%
May
225.10
+0.9%
+6.4%
June
226.10
+0.3%
+6.4%
July
227.53
+0.6%
+6.0%
August
227.86
+0.1%
+5.8%
September
227.98
+0.1%
+5.3%
October
228.34
+0.2%
+5.9%
November
228.89
+0.2%
+5.8%
December
229.41
+0.2%
+5.4%
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.59
+0.9%
+6.6%

The highest reading of the San Diego NSA CSI was 250.34 in November, 2005.

The most-recent low point was 144.43 in April, 2009.

Posted by on Jun 27, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

If we stay on the same pace we’ve had for the first three months of 2017, our local Case-Shiller Index will rise about 10%-12% this year!

“People are staying in their homes longer rather than selling and trading up,” David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “If mortgage rates, currently near 4%, rise further, this could deter more people from selling and keep pressure on inventories and prices.”

“While prices cannot rise indefinitely, there is no way to tell when rising prices and mortgage rates will force a slowdown in housing.”

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Read More

Posted by on May 30, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, February

If we stay on the same pace we’ve had for the first two months of 2017, our local C-S index will rise about 10% this year!  Blitzy just kills it with this quote:

David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the low stock of existing homes for sale — currently about 3.8 months worth of supply at current sales rates — is bolstering the price increases across the board.

“Housing affordability has declined since 2012 as the pressure of higher prices has been a larger factor than stable to lower mortgage rates,” Blitzer added.

The cities with the biggest annual price gains in February were Seattle, Portland, Oregon and Dallas, according to the groups’ index.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 25, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, January

After five months of flatsville, our local non-seasonally adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index took off in January, up 0.8% month-over-month!  It was the highest increase of any metro area!  We usually see the biggest pops in spring, so stay tuned.

Blitzy doesn’t have to worry about breaking the internet with these thoughts:

“Housing and home prices continue on a generally positive upward trend,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The actions by the Federal Reserve raising the target for the Fed funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point is expected to add less than a quarter percentage point to mortgage rates in the near future, Blitzer said.

“Given the market’s current strength and the economy, the small increase in interest rates isn’t expected to dampen home buying. If we see three or four additional increases this year, rising mortgage rates could become concern,” he said.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Read More

Posted by on Mar 28, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments