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Category Archive: ‘Same-House Sales’

San Diego Case-Shiller, Nov., 2015

Four other towns experienced their all-time highs, but the San Diego Case-Shiller Index for November barely got off the mat, rising a scant 0.28% from October.  It made up for the decline last month, and shows how general pricing data will bounce around from now on.

Link to story.

The talking heads will report how ‘prices’ went up or down, but that is a generalization.  The index went up slightly, and that’s all we know.

Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.67
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.95
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.53
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.79
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.57
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.09
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.53
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.25
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.41
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.69
-0.3%
+6.2%
November
216.30
+0.3%
+6.0%

I revised each monthly index today by a couple of basis points to reflect the exact amount reported on the Case-Shiller Index website. I get the data from the same place every month – I think they revised their numbers.  The seasonaly-adjusted number is 216.04, so I’m sticking with the non-seasonally-adjusted. We don’t have ‘seasons’ that some ivory-tower guy can quantify.

sdcsi

Posted by on Jan 26, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Oct. 2015

Some months we are going to have a set of homes sell that, as a group, were inferior to previous sets and won’t pull the same prices.

Or the market is falling apart, take your choice!

The non-seasonally adjusted CSI for San Diego showed -0.32% decline in October, the first decline all year (the seasonally-adjusted number was +0.2%). But it isn’t the end of the world – last year there were four times that the NSA number declined, month-over-month.

Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.69
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.97
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.53
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.82
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.71
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.40
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.68
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.40
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.62
+0.6%
+6.6%
October
215.75
-0.3%
+6.2%

sf

The national headlines conveniently focused on happy talk, and reported the Y-o-Y stats, and the seasonally-adjusted month-over-month calcs.  No mention in this article that SEVEN of the 20 cities showed a M-o-M decline of the non-seasonally adjusted numbers:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-29/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-rose-at-a-faster-pace-in-october

Posted by on Dec 29, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, September 2015

More bouncing around during the late-summer months, but all positive, all year!  Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.69
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.97
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.53
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.82
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.71
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.40
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.68
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.40
+0.3%
+5.9%
September
216.62
+0.6%
+6.6%

The San Diego historical graph:

SDCSIchart

The 20-City Index rose 5.5%, which was higher than the 5.2% expected.

From cnbc.com:

The latest read is a sign that housing continues to show strength as home prices rise at more than double the rate of inflation, said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“The general economy appeared to slow slightly earlier in the fall, but is now showing renewed strength,” he said in a statement.

Though most analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December meeting, that prospect is not likely to push 30-year conventional mortgage rates much above 4 percent, Blitzer said.

Posted by on Nov 24, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, August 2015

The previous Case Shiller reading (for July) turned out to be an anomaly, and today’s +0.34% increase month-over-month is probably what we can expect through the off-season.

Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.69
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.97
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.53
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.82
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.71
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.40
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.68
+1.1%
+5.4%
August
215.40
+0.3%
+5.9%

The Case-Shiller reading for San Diego was 86.02 in July, 1990.  On average, it has gone up 6% per year since, or a half-point per month.

SDCSI

Posted by on Oct 27, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

San Diego #1

SD1

I love Dr. Housing Bubble, one of the best real estate doomer blogs ever, and still going strong.  He did plug San Diego as the best housing market in the West, according to the latest month-over-month Case-Shiller data, but the comments erode quickly:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/chicago-overtakes-detroit-poor-performing-real-estate-chicago-home-prices/

Posted by on Oct 3, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index, July 2015

CS July15

After it looked like we were heading for flatsville, the July reading of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index experienced a big spring-like pop of 1.14% month-over-month.  Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.69
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.97
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.53
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.82
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.71
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.40
+0.3%
+4.6%
July
214.68
+1.1%
+5.4%

Statistics like these are going to bounce around, so making a decision based on one month’s reading is ill-advised.  But the trend this year has been positive!

Posted by on Sep 29, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

Peak Pricing?

Case-Shiller San Diego history

Above is a graph of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index for the last ten years.

How much higher can it go?

1. The highest reading was 251.71 in March, 2006.  After that, the index dropped 42% in three years, bottoming at 145.70 in April, 2009.  We have gotten about 61% of that back since.

2. Our most recent index of 210.58 is 16% lower than the peak. The no-doc funny money was probably accountable for the entire 16% difference, if not more.

3. According to the BLS, local prices only rose 0.8% in the last year, and +1.9% less food and energy.  Inflation probably isn’t going to drive home prices higher in the near future.

4. It will be unlikely to see mortgage rates go down anytime soon.  Expect a holding pattern in the low-4 percent range.

What could drive prices higher?  Low inventory is about the only answer, and buyers are tired of hearing it.  The Case-Shiller graph shows some sputtering lately, and it has only been interrupted by rates dipping back into the 3s. Without that, prices would be, and should be, flat at best.

Posted by on Sep 8, 2015 in Bubble-Era Pricing, Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 6 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index – June 2015

chart (3)

Price-wise, the selling season cooled off quickly this year, with our San Diego Case-Shiller Index staying about the same in June.

Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.69
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
205.97
+0.6%
+4.6%
March
208.53
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.82
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.71
+0.9%
+4.8%
June
212.40
+0.3%
+4.6%

From the S&P press release, by David Blitzer:

A quarter-point increase in the Fed funds rate won’t derail housing. However, if the Fed were to quickly follow that initial move  with one or two more rate increases, housing and home prices might suffer.  A stock market correction is unlikely to do much damage to the housing market; a full blown bear market dropping more than 20 percent would present some difficulties for housing and for other economic sectors.”

Wondering what CSI-SD will look like for the remainder of 2015? Here are the non-seasonally-adjusted numbers from last year – let’s call it flat:

Month
CSI-SD
July 2014
203.64
August 2014
203.31
September 2014
203.16
October 2014
203.07
November 2014
203.99
December 2014
203.46

For those interested in the seasonally-adjusted numbers, the San Diego index in June declined by -0.23% month-over-month, and was +4.59% year-over-year. 

Here is the SA graph – click to enlarge:

SD Case Shiller June 2015

Posted by on Aug 25, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index – May

Case-Shiller Index cumulative changes since 2000:

CS cumulative change since 2000

Here are the San Diego NSA changes for 2015:

Month
CSI-SD
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
204.70
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
206.06
+0.7%
+4.6%
March
208.62
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
209.90
+0.6%
+4.5%
May
211.75
+0.9%
+4.8%

“Over the next two years or so, the rate of home price increases is more likely to slow than to accelerate,” Blitzer said.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/home-price-growth-remains-solid-in-may-says-case-shiller-1438088503

Posted by on Jul 28, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 10 comments

SD Case-Shiller Index – April 2015

Buying decisions that caused closings in early 2015 were stimulated by mortgage rates in the mid-to-high threes. Now that rates are back over 4%, and NSDCC inventory is about 18% higher than it was at the end of April, we should see the appreciation rate flatten out for the rest of the year.

Here are the San Diego monthly changes for 2015:

Month
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January
+0.6%
+5.0%
February
+0.7%
+4.6%
March
+1.2%
+4.6%
April
+0.6%
+4.5%

“Home prices continue to rise across the country, but the pace is not accelerating,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

Posted by on Jun 30, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 0 comments