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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘Sales and Price Check’

One-Story Premium

Let’s look at the price on my new one-story listing.  After all, the 5,345sf house right up the street (that went pending the same day) was listed for the same.

At first glance:

$1,799,000/5,345 = $337/sf

$1,798,000/3,729 = $482/sf

(43% premium)

But we know that the cost-per-sf metric is one of the worst ways to compare the values of two homes.  We use it for measuring the change in the general trend, mostly because no other metric has been devised that is any better.

Why is it a bad measuring stick?

Because when you are only comparing house to house, the cost-per-sf bundles up all the many variables into one neat package to call it apples-to-apples.

But consider the many variables here that shouldn’t be bundled:

The 5,345sf two-story house appeals to younger people, probably to those with a few kids.  Even if you have 4+ people to occupy, you probably only need 4,000sf of it, and be lucky to get around to using 4,500sf.  It is a view home, but you only look over scrub brush – I’ll give you a little benefit of not having a neighbor behind, but that’s about it – and the fire danger should be considered.

While younger folks don’t mind a single level, the older crowd insists on them – and they won’t consider a two-story, which skews the supply-and-demand.

Let’s compare Carlsbad houses sold in the last six months over 2,500sf:

Product type
# of Sales
Cost-per-sf
Median SP
Median DOM
One-story
32
$509/sf
$1,337,500
8
Two-story+
303
$374/sf
$1,225,000
18

The average one-story premium in Carlsbad over the last six months has been 36% when you are comparing the general statistics.

If you insist on using the cost-per-sf metric, a more-accurate way to compare my price is to compare it to the general trend of other one-story sales:

My listing = $482/sf

Carlsbad one-story sales over 2,500sf, last six months: $509/sf

Heck, I’m giving it away!

If you are the type of buyer who will only buy a single-level home and need 2,500sf or more, you want to consider the rarity factor too. There has only been only five sales per month, and they’ve been popping off the market.  The median days-on-market is eight!

I was the one who put the price on my listing, based on the one-story premium. We will see if today’s market agrees!

Here’s my YouTube from last month that showed a few examples:

https://youtu.be/5Frb9P4t89I

Posted by on Sep 26, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

NSDCC August & Jan-Aug Sales

How did your area do last month, and for the first eight months of the year? It would be sufficient to just keep close to 2017, which was a good year for sales:

Town or Area
Zip Code
Aug17
Aug18
Jan-Aug17
Jan-Aug18
Cardiff
92007
7
8
49
39
NW Carlsbad
92008
23
20
147
143
SE Carlsbad
92009
45
47
390
324
NE Carlsbad
92010
10
14
109
117
SW Carlsbad
92011
28
24
189
142
Carmel Vly
92130
28
48
342
335
Del Mar
92014
20
4
105
108
Encinitas
92024
54
36
317
282
La Jolla
92037
18
24
207
227
RSF
92067
22
30
170
159
RSF
92091
11
5
28
21
Solana Bch
92075
13
13
73
63
NSDCC
All Above
279
273
2,126
1,960
Coronado
92118
22
11
124
115

Total NSDCC sales for the first eight months are down 8%, which isn’t the end of the world.  The median sales price is up, and the average cost-per-sf is down:

NSDCC median sales price, August, 2017: $1,245,000

NSDCC median sales price, August, 2018: $1,325,000

NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2017: $549/sf

NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2018: $534/sf

You would think that the high-dollar areas might be showing some struggle, but in August, both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe had great months.

In May, 2018, there were 13 sales in the 92067!

Posted by on Sep 16, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Rancho Santa Fe, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Pricing Plateau

Hat tip to Rob Dawg who sent in this example of what’s happening in most markets – lower-end prices are holding, and it’s softer in the higher-end markets.

But because the higher-end sellers typically have more horsepower, and aren’t going to ‘give it away’, prices could just stagnate, instead of dropping.

You could call it a levitating market too, and many will think that it’s just a matter of time before pricing turns south.

Here are reasons why prices are sustainable:

  • We have newer agents representing the buyers.  Even if they have nine years experience, they’ve never seen anything but a seller’s market.  If their buyers don’t like the price, they just pass on the house, instead of making a low offer.
  • Rarely is a seller motivated enough that they might consider a lowball offer. You’re lucky if you get a call back, let alone a counter-offer.
  • Agents are looking to provide less service, not more.  The trend is to capture the consumer’s contact info, send it to the call center, and have dialers hound them until they buy or die.

  • Buyers are so used to pressing a button to transact everything else that they don’t even know they need good help.  All buyers and newer agents know how to do is to find a decent house and process the order.
  • With traditional, discount, and disrupter agents all offering less expertise, the fixers stand virtually no chance of selling – they are too much of a turnoff to buyers who are essentially do-it-yourselfers.  It’s too easy to skip them.
  • If fixers aren’t selling, then just the good-to-excellent homes have a chance, and buyers are typically willing to pay close to list for those.
  • If there were a couple of sales in the neighborhood that were lower, the vast majority of potential sellers would quit, rather than panic. When their motivation is already suspect, it won’t take much for them to wait until some mystical time in the future when they can sell for that extra 5% to 10%.
  • Buyers who go straight to the listing agent are in effect, unrepresented, and will just end up paying retail.
  • Off-market properties would only sell if they get their price.
  • Sellers who can’t get their price can always rent for astronomical prices, and try again next year.

Combine those together and it’s easy to see how prices will stall, or could even drift upward with only the creampuffs selling.  The inventory counts won’t matter either, because if they grow, it will just mean a sea of OPTs lying around, nothing more.

With a healthy economy and no foreclosures, there isn’t any pressure on sellers to dump and run. Besides, where are they going to go in such a hurry?

It will be a binary market – buyers will say yes or no.  Pricing should stay about the same, but if buyers were to dig in, then sales could be affected.  Keep an eye on the sales count – they are the precursor, and they’ve been holding up nicely the last couple of months (at least between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Posted by on Sep 9, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC August Sales

The NSDCC sales in May and June were down 20% YoY, but July and August bounced back nicely this year.  We had 11 more sales in July this year, compared to July, 2017, but there was one extra day in 2018.  How did we do in August (which had the same number of business days as last year)?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
324
$437/sf
$953,750
21
2014
246
$500/sf
$1,050,000
26
2015
278
$470/sf
$1,030,000
19
2016
288
$487/sf
$1,199,500
25
2017
279
$549/sf
$1,245,000
25
2018
270
$536/sf
$1,325,000
25

It’s remarkable that we’re hanging this close to last year!

Posted by on Sep 6, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, August First Half

We saw the NSDCC sales in May and June be 20% fewer than they were in 2017. We had 11 more sales in July this year, compared to July, 2017, but there was one extra day in 2018.

How are we doing so far in August? Can we just hang close to the mean this month, have a decent September, and cruise into the holidays?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August 1-15

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2014
133
$478/sf
$1,060,000
24
2015
133
$460/sf
$1,050,000
17
2016
115
$480/sf
$1,169,000
17
2017
138
$547/sf
$1,282,500
25
2018
125
$539/sf
$1,300,000
22

If sales stay within 10% of the previous year, we should be fine. We’re looking for disaster signs, not just the usual bouncing around (see previous years).

Posted by on Aug 24, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

San Diego Tiered Pricing

These are through May, and though all three are at new record levels, we should see the usual year-end leveling the rest of the way:

Posted by on Aug 10, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales | 0 comments

NSDCC July Sales and Pricing

It may feel like a slowdown, but houses are still selling! By the time every agent reports their July sales, we should be up to at least 275 sales for 2018:

NSDCC July Sales

Year
July # of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
Avg. Days on Market
2014
271
$451/sf
$1,018,000
46
2015
321
$458/sf
$1,025,000
41
2016
270
$504/sf
$1,105,000
34
2017
260
$529/sf
$1,243,250
45
2018
261
$534/sf
$1,285,000
42

The pricing increases have settled down, so if sellers don’t mind selling for about what the last guy got, they should be ok.  Or if they have something special, there might still be a chance at a frenzy!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Link to Brady story

Like the rest of us, former *NSYNC singer Lance Bass just isn’t ready to say — cue the music — “Bye, Bye, Bye” to the “Brady Bunch” house. The boy band legend is reportedly one of at least five bidders vying for a chance to buy the iconic house used to portray the home on the popular 1970s family show.

The house hit the market this month for the first time since 1973, and its owners are hoping to attract a buyer who will preserve the piece of Americana rather than tear it down, a real threat in the Studio City neighborhood where developers routinely tear down and rebuild.

According to Douglas Elliman realtor Ernie Carswell, five bidders got offers in before the midnight deadline Tuesday.

“We’re not going to accept the first big offer from a developer who wants to tear it down,” Carswell told the Los Angeles Times.

Bass hopes he’s the buyer they are looking for.

“I’m obviously obsessed with ‘The Brady Bunch.’ I mean, I grew up watching that show. Reruns!” Bass said on the “Big Brother” show “Off the Block.”

He said he plans to truly make it the Brady Bunch house.

“I’m going to turn it into the TV house, because you know it doesn’t have a second floor and all that kinda stuff, but I’m going to go back to the original, original house,” he said.

Listed at $1,885,000, the two-bedroom home is billed as America’s second most photographed home behind the White House.

Situated in Studio City’s Colfax Meadows, the home boasts a gated motor court and two master suites. According to records, Violet and George McCallister bought the house for $61,000 in 1973 when the “Brady Bunch” was still airing. While the interior never served as a set for the show, the home is like a time capsule, with decor unchanged since the early ’70s. It has a wet bar, a tall stone fireplace and a master bedroom with wall-to-wall hot pink Toile de Jouy wallpaper and matching bedspread.

Link to listing

Posted by on Aug 2, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC Annual Sales History

When I first saw this graph, I thought it was the perfect way to sum up the changes in the marketplace since the 2000-2009 era.  Back then, people were younger, there were plenty of homes for sale, and prices were relatively affordable, so we always had a very fluid move-up and move-down market.

But to see that average tenure has doubled between 2009 and 2017 is striking.

Have the number of sales changed?

NSDCC Annual Sales of Detached Homes

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Annual % Chg in MSP
1999
3,236
$475,000
2000
3,285
$555,000
+17%
2001
2,926
$570,000
+3%
2002
3,717
$630,000
+11%
2003
3,932
$732,500
+16%
2004
3,363
$948,000
+29%
2005
3,014
$1,000,000
+5%
2006
2,626
$985,000
-2%
2007
2,479
$1,000,000
+2%
2008
2,037
$890,000
-11%
2009
2,223
$817,000
-8%
2010
2,461
$830,000
+2%
2011
2,562
$825,000
-1%
2012
3,154
$830,000
+1%
2013
3,218
$952,250
+15%
2014
2,850
$1,025,000
+8%
2015
3,079
$1,090,000
+6%
2016
3,103
$1,160,000
+6%
2017
3,084
$1,225,000
+6%
Medians
3,079
$890,000
+6%

Given the huge change in price and that more people are staying put than ever, it is shocking to see that sales have been relatively consistent in recent years.

How do you explain it?

It must mean that the demand is fueled by those who don’t have a house yet – first-timers, and those coming from out of town. It explains why they jump at buying when they see a good one – they don’t have one yet.  Those who already have a house here aren’t as impressed.

The population has grown 25% in San Diego County since 2000, and 30yr-fixed mortgage rates are about half of what they were then.  But for sales to be this strong when repeat movers are so scarce, is remarkable!

P.S. We’ve had 1,620 closings this year, with a median SP = $1,321,500.

Link to Attom article

Posted by on Jul 27, 2018 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 2 comments