Rich’s latest graphs are out, and this inventory history above shows how relatively few homes are for sale locally.
The median detached-home list price for the county today is $849,000!
He did mention a reader’s theory that in the era of online search portals, the inventory has become more efficient. Better-educated buyers are making faster decisions these days, which keeps the inventory counts down. But the hot buys have always sold quickly, and the over-abundance of data could be dumbing down the decision-making.
He mentioned the slightly-negative turn in pricing last month, but I like these two graphs above. The pricing trend is going to bounce around – as long as we have sales counts close to previous years, we’ll be fine.
Here’s one graph that demonstrates the timing of the selling season:
For sales to spike in March, it means buyers have been jumping to get into escrow right after the Super Bowl – and in some cases, prior to!
But also look at how sales drop off earlier in summer.
In 2018, sales from May to June were flat, when they usually rise.
Closed sales in July – which are a result of buyer decisions made in May and June – typically decline from June’s sales counts, but then last year they really fell apart for the rest of the year. And this graph is for the whole county, whose median sales price is less than half of what it is between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
If you are selling, do not think you’ll stand a better chance, later.
The worrisome spike last month did flatten out, but it does make you wonder if we should adjust our sights.
I agree with Rich that the months of active inventory will probably be rising from now on. But if the coastal market had 3 or 4 months of active inventory, it wouldn’t be a bad thing. Rancho Santa Fe is 7+ and doing fine.
Rich’s latest data is out, and the graph above shows the aggregate pricing for San Diego has increased over 100% since 2009 – click below for the rest of his analysis on inventory, sales, and pendings:
In spite of record prices, the inventory has been setting recent lows:
Yet, sales have been mostly better than every year since the Frenzy of 2013!
Fewer homes for sale but more sales?
Are sellers doing better to improve their homes before selling, or are buyers so desperate that they are buying crap they wouldn’t have bought during the last couple of years just purely because of the scarcity?
Let’s examine Rich’s other charts to see how divergent our San Diego market has been lately, comparing to the last three years. In spite of much-higher pricing, the raw number of homes for sale has crossed under the paltry few we had during the Frenzy of 2013, and into uncharted territory:
Yet, the volume of sales has been strong – and see June :
The rest of the year looks OK too, though this is for the whole county:
There will be sellers – especially on the higher-end – who didn’t know how motivated they were until now. Will they lower their price, or wait and take their chances next year? The market couldn’t be much better than now!
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