bubbleinfo.com

Sean and the folks at Foreclosureradar.com are very gracious in providing their data, though I don’t like this – fewer trustee sales, and more cancellations.

If the trend continues, we’ll have fewer REO listings, which are typically well-priced and vacant, and instead have more short-sales and loan modifications:

The bulk of the defaulting mortgages are from refinancings, which are full-recourse.  Are the lenders/servicers gearing up for The Big Collection?

Maybe not, and perhaps the opposite.  They could be anticipating HAFA, the latest foreclosure-avoidance device that encourages lenders and servicers to approve short sales, and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure.  HAFA begins April 5th.

HAFA directs the servicers to pre-approve the short sale, prior to listing the home for sale. 

Once approved, the homeowner gets four months to sell the house, stalling any foreclosure proceedings, and then gets $1,500 for moving expenses.  It also looks like the homeowner get released from all liability too. 

Here are more details on HAFA, from Inside Mortgage Finance:

Read the rest of this entry »

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100005290-916_Mira_Mar_Oceanside_CA_92054

Who do you call once you realize you’ve been hacked?

ROB DAWG!!!!

Bryce was the first to email the news, and within 60 seconds I had Robert on the phone.  He was happy to oblige, and boom, here we are, right back in business!

Thank You Robert!

Our website designer Stefanie pitched in too, adding more security measures – if you ever need help designing your website, her contact info is at the bottom of the screen.

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Let’s ponder the future – what can we expect for 2010 in North SD County Coastal?

1. More distressed properties for sale.

So far in the fourth quarter we’ve had 1,213 new listings in NSDCC, and 258 of them are short sales or REOs, or 21%.  The overall county 4Q stats are 43% short sales and REOs – we’re due to catch up with heavy activity expected on the ARM-recast chart. 

2. More short sales showing up on the court house steps.

The sellers have to cooperate fully, and in many cases it’s better for them to be foreclosed – expect more short sales to fail as a result.

3. More loan mods showing up on the court house steps.

The loan mod terms aren’t that much better, and the free rent was good while it lasted – are modders going to go back to making big payments?  Doubtful.

4. Banks/servicers unloading

It may not be a tsunami, but the drip has to at least turn into a slow meandering stream.  There have been 103 closings in the fourth quarter in NSDCC, but there are 872 properties that have received their notice of trustee sale!

5. Housing Tax Credit getting credit for sales activity.

Who knows if it helps, and there’s little benefit in the more expensive areas.  But it gives people something to talk about.

6. Chargers winning Super Bowl.

Let’s not get too hyped up, it’s only been 8 wins in a row, and Norv is still the coach.  But if a miracle happened, it would make people feel a little better.

7. Lower pricing

Forget 1-6, all that matters is number 7.

Take a look at the latest pricing from the court house steps, via youtube:

Cielo, a gated community at the edge of Rancho Santa Fe, has struggled to build sales momentum.

There are 26 active listings (this house is number 13th on the list), ranging from $1.595 to $7.999, and five contingent/pending listings currently, but only seven have closed over the last six months, averaging $301/sf:

The nine lots at the end were listed for $4+ million, but the listing expired.

The REO hits just keep on coming in Rancho Santa Fe.

We saw Lago Lindo list for $1,879,000 and receive eight offers, with bids over $2 million. These days the buyers roam from REO to REO, in search of the right deal, with only glimmers of hope that a regular seller will be reasonable on price.

Will this new REO listing get swept up in the frenzy?

What would you think if you discovered that the house right next door just listed for $220,000 less than you paid 2 months ago….

If the next-door buyer relied on the same faulty tax roll information that I had, he should sue.

These new REO listings in the Covenant should help loosen up the stand-off between buyers and sellers in the Ranch.

When checking the sales in 92067, 92091, and Fairbanks, you could say sales have been a bit stagnant. In 2005 there were 253 houses that closed escrow between Jan. 1 and Oct. 30, and this year there have been 119 houses close YTD, a 53% decline.

Here’s the latest REO:

Those on tsunami watch are having trouble staying awake, but after all the dripping it’s no surprise that the weekly totals of new REO listings coming onto the MLS in SD County are only slightly higher:

While NAR has taken a lead role in supporting the tax credit extension, you have to believe the banking lobby is pushing it hard too. Don’t they have to be thinking that the next six months is a prime opportunity to dump a load of REOs?

I hope that this is just cherry-picking, and not the start of a trend.

Here are a few examples of recently-foreclosed homes that the banks are trying to sell for more than they have into them – in some cases A LOT more than they have into them.

There are a number of people to point the finger at – there are private mortgage insurance companies behind the scenes begging for mercy, upper management hoping to save their own hides, and appraisers who are out of their normal market area doing bulk work and rushing through the process.  There might even be some listing agents who are buried and figure what the heck, there are some comps so maybe they’ll get lucky.

But if the powers that be think they are going to make up lost ground on the backs of today’s buyers, they’re in for a rude awakening.  The opening bids, (the price that no bidder at the trustee sale would bite on) now become the sales price on the county records, available for all to see.  Buyers are very resistant to making a flipper rich – bank or otherwise.

10556 Hollingsworth, San Diego 92127

4 br/2.5 ba, 1,957 sf  YB: 2005

$643,000  SP 12/05

$514,300  purchase loan (+$128K 2nd that washed out)

$397,500  Opening Bid 8/08

$525,000  List Price 8/08

Dear US Bank – you were willing to take $397,500 two weeks ago, what happened?

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1270 Birch, Escondido 92027

3 br/3 ba, 3,546 sf   YB:1987

$645,000  SP 8/03

$516,000  purchase loan 8/03

$462,000  Opening Bid 6/08

$609,900  List Price 8/08

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3464 Corte Selva, Carlsbad 92009

3 br/3.5 ba  3,487 sf  YB: 2005

$908,000  SP 9/05

$720,000  refi 12/06

$731,000  Opening Bid 7/08

$869,000  List Price 8/08

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2575 Arundel, Carlsbad 92009

5 br/4.5 ba 4,608 sf  YB: 2005

$1,151,000  SP 12/05

$1,000,000  refi loan 9/06

$1,073,432  Opening Bid 4/08

$1,127,000  List Price  7/7/08

Sorry, this is Bressi Ranch – you have to pay the Jenae tax now. LP should be under $1M

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14790 Encendido, Santaluz 92127

4 br/4 ba  5,137sf  YB: 2006

$2,150,000  SP 12/06

$1,720,000  refi loan 1/07 (plus $322K 2nd)

$1,860,000  Opening Bid 8/08

$1,990,000  List Price 8/08

You’re reading that right, the homeowner refinanced a month after buying it – he was a mortgage broker.  Then business died, and so did the income.  They moved out, and had an agent give a galant effort trying to short-sell.  She told me she had multiple offers in the $1,600,000-$1,700,000 range.  But instead of taking what they could get in the heat of the spring buying season, the lender forecloses and takes a chance on fall/winter.  Their appraisal may have included a recent purchase by Jake Peavy in Santaluz – but come on, there is only one Jake Peavy.  You can’t count on more Padres players being able to pay the big bucks to help you turn a profit!

Hopefully these are exceptions!

The fourth of the REOs assigned to me hit the open market, and it should be a good test of the 92057 zip code.  We’ve seen the lower-end properties take a bath recently in this zip, with most suffering 40% to 60% declines.  What happens once you move up the price ladder? 

This house is in the Jeffries Ranch area in rural east Oceanside, where house trails run right through your front yard!  It sold just 15 months ago for $700,000, and the same floor plan across the street with a big pool is in escrow currently, listed for $669,000.

Our price?  $549,000.

1488 Serene, Oceanside, CA 92057

4 br + office/ 3 bath

2,963 sf

3-car garage + RV pkg

10,500 sf lot

YB: 2000  HOA = 0, MR = 0

Hope everyone has been enjoying the U.S. Open, looking for a big finish today!