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We tend to spend a lot of time on short sales and foreclosures, what percentage of the market are distressed sales in the North San Diego County Coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad)?

The REO and short-sale MLS detached listings that have closed escrow equal 19% of the overall market, year-to-date.

The 2011 year-to-date breakdown of closed sales, and avg. cost-per-sf:

Four out of five this year have been regular sales.

The cost-per-sf is also influenced by location – 64% of the SS/REO closings were in Carlsbad/Encinitas.

I think we’ll see an increase of short sales over the next 24 months, unless lenders dig in over SB 458 and reject more of them.  If they decide on a case-by-case basis, they’ll probably be inclined to deny those with bigger loan amounts, and take their chances that a collection agency will be able get more after the foreclosure than the a couple of thousand dollars they’d get out of a short-sale.

ocerenter noted two posts ago – could the foreclosure crisis be turning a corner?

I join in his skepticism, due to the numerous ways the data can be manipulated – primarily, we’ll never know how many defaulters are not being foreclosed.  The bankers can just let people live for free if they want, and the public won’t know.

In San Diego County, there are more REOs and short-sale closings, than properties being foreclosed (based on MLS vs foreclosureradar stats):

If anything, the liquidation flow indicates that the bankers have become better at managing the pipeline – as long as they keep it around 1,000 properties per month. At least they are providing some inventory!

But what about the shadow inventory? Will the underwater folks provide an unmanageable event for servicers in the future? Not as long as selling about 1,000 properties per month is acceptable to the bankers and investors. Defaulters will just have to wait in line!

In trying to keep my promise to post only NSDCC-related data, here’s a national article from G-S, with NSDCC relevance at the bottom. Hat tip to Aztec for sending this along:

As of 1Q, the number of seriously delinquent federally backed loans surpassed the number held by banks and private label securitizations and now accounts for the majority of seriously delinquent mortgages (seriously delinquent mortgages comprise loans in the foreclosure process as well as loans that are 90-plus days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure).

This shift is due to the persistently elevated level of seriously delinquent loans among Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), in contrast with private-label and bank-held loans, where serious delinquencies peaked in 2009 and have declined significantly since.

The chart below shows the number of seriously delinquent mortgages backed by federal entities and the total mortgage market; the right axis shows seriously delinquent loans as a share of the total.

The federal share of REO property is also rising.

Read the rest of this entry »

The foreclosure numbers aren’t growing yet – we’re all convinced that they’ll be dripped out for years to come, right?  The push towards loan mods and short sales enables all participants to drag out the inevitable, and it’s probably not going to change.

In San Diego County, there has been an average of 1,053 properties per month get foreclosed over the last 13 months - with an average of 764 per month going back-to-bene, and an average of 289 per month being bought by third parties:

Over the same 13 months, there has been an average of 2,716 properties per month sell on the MLS, so there has been an appetite for more than just the bank-owneds.

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In North SD County Coastal, the recent detached pendings are starting to wane slightly, though the battles for the high-quality buys continue – there were six written offers on the Glaucus listing in Leucadia over the weekend, with many more interested.  Here are the recent weekly new pendings from La Jolla to Carlsbad:

While there isn’t obvious evidence that prices are on the rise, it looks like last year’s $380/sf average for detached homes sold in North SD County Coastal is holding up for now.

There have been 69 detached closings in NSDCC since February 1st; their average LP-per-sf was $417/sf, and the sold average was $391/sf.

The SFR foreclosures around North SD County Coastal are still being trickled out, relatively. 

We got teased with an increased flow in January when 49 got foreclosed, but in February that number was almost cut in half, down to 26 (with the same number of business days too). 

Here are the foreclosed-SFR counts between Jan 1 and March 6th:

It’s mentioned in this video that buying a cheaper house with FHA financing might be of interest, but it is a novel concept with attractively-priced REOs. If you offered to purchase one of these with FHA financing, you’d get sent to the back of the line, behind the cash buyers, and those with big down paymnets:

 A couple of years ago, one of the employees at RealtyTrac told me that they get their data from multiple sources, and they don’t have time to cross-reference or screen out any duplicates.  Hat tip to Rob for sending this along – we’ve been hearing about how the NAR has been over-stating sales, here’s a guy who is comparing RealtyTrac’s numbers to the loacl county’s data.  The result? It looks like RealtyTrac is reporting 3x the actual foreclosures last year in his county:

From HW:

The number of foreclosure starts fell about 11.4% in January from a month earlier, but delinquency rates rose slightly because many lenders are moving loans out of foreclosure and back into the seriously delinquent category, according to Lender Processing Services.

The company’s most-recent Mortgage Monitor also shows foreclosure timelines continue to climb, with the average loan in foreclosure has been absent any payment for more than 500 days. Some 28% of loans in foreclosure haven’t had a payment in more than two years.

The loan-level database of LPS tracks more than 36.2 million mortgages. The Jacksonville, Fla., firm said there were about 230,000 foreclosure starts in January, which is down 20% from a year earlier. The delinquency rate rose less than 1% in January to 8.9% from the month before but is 18.8% lower than the nearly 11% rate recorded in January 2010, according to data from LPS Applied Analytics.

There are more than 6.9 million mortgage loans in arrears with about 4.3 million more than 90-days late or in foreclosure. In early February, analysts at both DBRS and Standard & Poor’s said the shadow inventory of distressed properties will push foreclosures to record levels in 2011.

While the volume of foreclosure starts continues to wane, the number of repeat foreclosures are becoming more frequent. Loans in foreclosure outnumber foreclosure sales 25 to one, although that is somewhat attributable to the moratoria enacted last fall in all 50 states. Foreclosure starts outpace sales almost three to one, according to LPS data.

The flow of North San Diego County foreclosures has picked up nicely.

Last year between January 1st and February 18th, there were 42 SFRs foreclosed, and this year there were 62, which is a 48% increase.  Here’s a look at a few:

Sean, our Los Angeles correspondent, files this report:

Jim,

Up here in LA it looks like BofA/Countrywide just threw the foreclosure machine switch back to the “on” position.  The number of Recontrust properties with opening bids set for tomorrow’s trustee sale auctions just spiked, so it looks like whatever self imposed delays or moratoria they had put in place during the past few months just came to an end.  Let’s cross our fingers and hope that maybe last year’s misbegotten prediction that they would crank out 65k foreclosures is about to come true a year later.
 
Sean

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Here are the San Diego County stats for Recontrust – hopefully this will mean something:

Trustee-sale results, YTD:

Foreclosed: 91

Cancelled: 76

Trustee-sales scheduled:

This week: 298

Next week: 270

1/31 – 2/4:  818

2/7 – 2/11:  884

2/14 – 2/18:  813

2/21 – 2/25:  327

Total: 3,410

Seven percent of the total are facing their first scheduled date.

Bold above - the rolling blob of loanmod-shadowinv ?