Below is the quarterly chart for the last three years. Even though the foreclosure moratoriums are mostly expired, there haven’t been more properties getting foreclosed than in 2008 – but add in the cancellations and it looks to be about the same (or more) volume as 2-3 years ago. Are banks letting people off the hook, or did defaulters get their loan mod? Or were they just bluffing?

But you might be able to say that the servicers must be getting sharper on price, and/or the investors are getting more optimistic – the third-party purchases have gone up substantially since 2008.

I promptly rejected it, which I figured would secure my spot at the bottom of their list, and boom, they sent me another one, which means 2-3 in the last week when I’ve only been getting one a month.  Does it mean something is cooking?

Here are the overall results from the last 12 weeks for all trustees:

Cancellations are due to short sales closing, and loan modifications becoming permanent. There have been 2,623 cancellations over the last 60 days, and in the same period there were 925 short sales that closed on the MLS, or 35% of the total cancellations. Can we say that about 2/3’s of the cancellations are due to loan modifications becoming permanent?

Yes, the loan modders might make their way back to market over the next few years, but for now the extend-and-pretend program is working nicely.

Here is the REO assigned to me today:

The notices went to 230 homeowners in North San Diego County, a 69 percent increase from February.

Wow, will there will be more SFR short sales or REOs in North SD County Coastal?

There were 22 new notices sent out in February, and 23 in March to SFR borrowers from Carlsbad to La Jolla – not quite a meltdown yet.  There are also some familiar faces on the lists as well, and we won’t count those as new meat.

Here are the lists:

February 2010 Recon NOTS NSDCC

March 2010 Recon NOTS NSDCC

We could all use some more inventory – keep ‘em coming!

Added later, the chart from Effective Demand, click on it twice for clarity:

This year has seen a relatively big increase in short-sale and REO listings compared to 2009, but they’re still only 12% of the total listings that have been coming on the market recently in San Diego’s North County Coastal region. With only 1-2 properties being sold at the trustee sales per day, there isn’t much to look forward to this summer. The regular sellers won’t be feeling much pressure from distressed neighbors, and likely to hang around waiting…..for something.

Though everyone wants to “steal one from the bank”, if you’re looking to buy in North SD County Coastal (Carlsbad-to-La Jolla), you’ll find few opportunities to snag an REO sale.

Have there been more REO listings coming on the market in 2010?

No flood yet.  What’s the difference in pricing?

Buyers see the REO listings, and dig the improved pricing – but there aren’t enough to go around.  We don’t necessarily need more REO inventory, just more REO-type pricing on regular listings.

Notices of default and trustee deeds fell a combined 22 percent in November from October.

Data from the San Diego County Assessor showed trustee deeds — the last step in the foreclosure process — dipped 17 percent from October to 1,128. Year over year, trustee deeds are down 1 percent.

The number of NODs filed was down nearly 25 percent to 2,182 last month.

Despite the month-to-month drop, November nearly doubled the number of NODs filed in the same month last year when there was a foreclosure moratorium in place from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The month-to-month dips can be attributed to some seasonal declines. On average, over the past five years, foreclosure filings have fallen 10 percent from October to November.

Year to date, there have been 4,189 fewer trustee’s deeds filed this year than 2008.

Even with declining foreclosure numbers, the local foreclosure rate is historically high.

In the first 11 months of 2009, there have been 13,988—that’s 20 percent more trustee’s deeds filed with the county than the annual totals of 2005, 2006 and 2007 combined.

The high number of foreclosures has led to increased activity in the housing market over the past year.  “I think we’re accepting a new normalcy around these market dynamics,” said Goldman.

According to Foreclosure Radar, an online foreclosure tracking tool, homes sold at trustee’s sales in October were up more than five times what they were in October 2008.

The 339 homes sold at trustee’s sales last month made up one-fourth of the 1,356 trustee’s deeds filed with the county in October.

“These are bad times, but there are opportunites,” said Goldman.

According to foreclosureradar.com, about 25% of the trustee sales in October were purchased by third parties on the courthouse steps.

There were 877 REO listings inputted onto the MLS last month.

While NAR has taken a lead role in supporting the tax credit extension, you have to believe the banking lobby is pushing it hard too. Don’t they have to be thinking that the next six months is a prime opportunity to dump a load of REOs?

Sean at foreclosureradar.com has published his latest report:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/CA_Foreclosure_Report/September+2009+CA+Foreclosure+Report.pdf

Excerpts:

With 90,365 properties in inventory, banks currently carry about 4.77 months of supply, however, it takes the banks on average 7.33 months to dispose of a bank owned home, thus current inventory is less than should be expected from normal operations given current foreclosure volumes. Bottom line – there is no “shadow” inventory of bank owned homes being intentionally withheld from the market.

The number of properties on the brink of foreclosure continues to increase and has more than doubled from a year ago. With a smaller percentage of scheduled foreclosures actually being sold due to postponements at trustee sale, while at the same time seeing strong sales of bank owned (REO) properties, banks have managed to reduce their inventory by 41.8 percent from a year earlier. With the banks reselling an average of 18,943 homes a month in the 3rd quarter, and an average time to resell of 7 months (given the time taken for eviction, repairs and resale), we believe there is essentially NO shadow inventory of bank owned homes at this time. Moving forward there are more loans which are delinquent, in default, and scheduled for trustee sale than ever before, which would typically lead to a significant rise in foreclosure sales. We do not believe this increase is likely in the near future given the continued political pressure on banks not to foreclose.

Foreclosures continue to be sold at trustee sale at considerable discount to both the outstanding loan balance and the current estimated fair market value. As we saw in foreclosure outcomes, the lure of an average 20.5 percent discount to fair market value has dramatically increased the number of properties sold to 3rd party investors. At the same time it is very clear why more properties aren’t purchased at auction – with banks pricing the properties they end up taking back as REO an average 23 percent more than the current market value.

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Here the weekly totals of new SD REO listings coming on the MLS – no real increases:

Of those 1,116 REO listings, 717 have already been marked contingent, pending, or sold (64%). The drip system is working great for the lenders!

In the same time frame there have been 4,753 non-REO listings inputted, and 1,850 of those are contingent, pending, or sold (39%).

REO listings make up 19% of the total new listings, but 28% of the contingents, pendings, and solds.