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An Insider's Guide to North San Diego County's Coastal Real Estate
Jim Klinge, broker-associate
858-997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
Compass
617 Saxony Place, Suite 101
Encinitas, CA 92024
Klinge Realty
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Local Home Sales, YTD

The California Association of Realtors predicted that statewide sales in 2018 would increase 1%, and the California median sales price would rise 4.2%.

My guess was for the San Diego County detached-home sales to drop 5%, and the median sales price to rise 5% in 2018. How are we doing?

Here are the detached-home sales and median price for the first nine months of the year in San Diego County:

SD County Detached-Home Sales, January through September

Year
Number of Sales
YoY Change
Median SP
YoY Change
2012
18,648
$375,000
2013
19,385
+4%
$450,804
+20%
2014
16,858
-13%
$497,250
+10%
2015
18,389
+9%
$527,000
+6%
2016
18,192
-1%
$555,000
+5%
2017
18,068
-1%
$600,000
+8%
2018
16,413
-9%
$641,000
+7%

It may seem like the sky is falling, but we should just appreciate how great we’ve had it over the last few years, and accept that we’re going to have fewer sales from now on. Here are the stats for La Jolla-to-Carlsbad:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, January through September

Year
Number of Sales
YoY Change
Median SP
YoY Change
2012
2,322
$825,000
2013
2,554
+10%
$945,000
+15%
2014
2,183
-15%
$1,028,564
+9%
2015
2,405
+10%
$1,085,000
+6%
2016
2,345
-2%
$1,165,000
+7%
2017
2,385
+2%
$1,230,000
+6%
2018
2,161
-9%
$1,320,000
+7%

It’s going to be harder to sell your home.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Oct 3, 2018 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC August & Jan-Aug Sales

How did your area do last month, and for the first eight months of the year? It would be sufficient to just keep close to 2017, which was a good year for sales:

Town or Area
Zip Code
Aug17
Aug18
Jan-Aug17
Jan-Aug18
Cardiff
92007
7
8
49
39
NW Carlsbad
92008
23
20
147
143
SE Carlsbad
92009
45
47
390
324
NE Carlsbad
92010
10
14
109
117
SW Carlsbad
92011
28
24
189
142
Carmel Vly
92130
28
48
342
335
Del Mar
92014
20
4
105
108
Encinitas
92024
54
36
317
282
La Jolla
92037
18
24
207
227
RSF
92067
22
30
170
159
RSF
92091
11
5
28
21
Solana Bch
92075
13
13
73
63
NSDCC
All Above
279
273
2,126
1,960
Coronado
92118
22
11
124
115

Total NSDCC sales for the first eight months are down 8%, which isn’t the end of the world.  The median sales price is up, and the average cost-per-sf is down:

NSDCC median sales price, August, 2017: $1,245,000

NSDCC median sales price, August, 2018: $1,325,000

NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2017: $549/sf

NSDCC average $$/sf, August, 2018: $534/sf

You would think that the high-dollar areas might be showing some struggle, but in August, both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe had great months.

In May, 2018, there were 13 sales in the 92067!

Posted by on Sep 16, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Rancho Santa Fe, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The NSDCC Pendings by price range vs last week:

Price Range
# of Pendings Last Week
# of Pendings This Week
% change
Under $1.0M
62
61
-1.6%
$1.0M to $1.5M
129
125
-3%
$1.5M to $2.0M
64
52
-19%
Over $2.0M
65
72
+11%

Wow, the Over-$2.0M market is on fire!

The total number of pendings is down to where they were in February, so the off-season has begun.  What can we expect the rest of the year?

NSDCC detached-home sales compared to 2017:

Third of Year
# of 2017 Sales
# of 2018 Sales
YoY % change
Jan-Apr
883
843
-5%
May-Aug
1,243
1,116
-10%
Sept-Dec
958
?
?

This year’s selling season was plagued with wildly over-priced listings, so no surprise that the number of sales dropped off year-over-year.

I think we’ll see a rebound of sorts, and sales in the last third of 2018 only be about 5% less than in 2017. Anyone trying to sell during the off-season should be more motivated, and as a result, be priced more competitively. We’ll see!

Read More

Posted by on Sep 10, 2018 in Forecasts, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Pricing Plateau

Hat tip to Rob Dawg who sent in this example of what’s happening in most markets – lower-end prices are holding, and it’s softer in the higher-end markets.

But because the higher-end sellers typically have more horsepower, and aren’t going to ‘give it away’, prices could just stagnate, instead of dropping.

You could call it a levitating market too, and many will think that it’s just a matter of time before pricing turns south.

Here are reasons why prices are sustainable:

  • We have newer agents representing the buyers.  Even if they have nine years experience, they’ve never seen anything but a seller’s market.  If their buyers don’t like the price, they just pass on the house, instead of making a low offer.
  • Rarely is a seller motivated enough that they might consider a lowball offer. You’re lucky if you get a call back, let alone a counter-offer.
  • Agents are looking to provide less service, not more.  The trend is to capture the consumer’s contact info, send it to the call center, and have dialers hound them until they buy or die.

  • Buyers are so used to pressing a button to transact everything else that they don’t even know they need good help.  All buyers and newer agents know how to do is to find a decent house and process the order.
  • With traditional, discount, and disrupter agents all offering less expertise, the fixers stand virtually no chance of selling – they are too much of a turnoff to buyers who are essentially do-it-yourselfers.  It’s too easy to skip them.
  • If fixers aren’t selling, then just the good-to-excellent homes have a chance, and buyers are typically willing to pay close to list for those.
  • If there were a couple of sales in the neighborhood that were lower, the vast majority of potential sellers would quit, rather than panic. When their motivation is already suspect, it won’t take much for them to wait until some mystical time in the future when they can sell for that extra 5% to 10%.
  • Buyers who go straight to the listing agent are in effect, unrepresented, and will just end up paying retail.
  • Off-market properties would only sell if they get their price.
  • Sellers who can’t get their price can always rent for astronomical prices, and try again next year.

Combine those together and it’s easy to see how prices will stall, or could even drift upward with only the creampuffs selling.  The inventory counts won’t matter either, because if they grow, it will just mean a sea of OPTs lying around, nothing more.

With a healthy economy and no foreclosures, there isn’t any pressure on sellers to dump and run. Besides, where are they going to go in such a hurry?

It will be a binary market – buyers will say yes or no.  Pricing should stay about the same, but if buyers were to dig in, then sales could be affected.  Keep an eye on the sales count – they are the precursor, and they’ve been holding up nicely the last couple of months (at least between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Posted by on Sep 9, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC August Sales

The NSDCC sales in May and June were down 20% YoY, but July and August bounced back nicely this year.  We had 11 more sales in July this year, compared to July, 2017, but there was one extra day in 2018.  How did we do in August (which had the same number of business days as last year)?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
324
$437/sf
$953,750
21
2014
246
$500/sf
$1,050,000
26
2015
278
$470/sf
$1,030,000
19
2016
288
$487/sf
$1,199,500
25
2017
279
$549/sf
$1,245,000
25
2018
270
$536/sf
$1,325,000
25

It’s remarkable that we’re hanging this close to last year!

Posted by on Sep 6, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, August First Half

We saw the NSDCC sales in May and June be 20% fewer than they were in 2017. We had 11 more sales in July this year, compared to July, 2017, but there was one extra day in 2018.

How are we doing so far in August? Can we just hang close to the mean this month, have a decent September, and cruise into the holidays?

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, August 1-15

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2014
133
$478/sf
$1,060,000
24
2015
133
$460/sf
$1,050,000
17
2016
115
$480/sf
$1,169,000
17
2017
138
$547/sf
$1,282,500
25
2018
125
$539/sf
$1,300,000
22

If sales stay within 10% of the previous year, we should be fine. We’re looking for disaster signs, not just the usual bouncing around (see previous years).

Posted by on Aug 24, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Who Is Selling?

Who is selling?

Over the last few years we’ve seen that most home sellers are the long-time owners, and that trend is continuing.

On the left are the years when the sellers purchased the home they sold between July 26 and August 3rd of this year:

Year Purchased
12/12/15
3/19/16
6/18/16
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
8/5/18
0 – 2003
41%
42%
39%
57%
48%
32%
42%
2004 – 2008
23%
29%
24%
19%
15%
12%
14%
2009 – 2011
15%
11%
13%
6%
7%
14%
12%
2012 – 2018
18%
18%
19%
13%
25%
34%
29%
New Homes
2%
1%
5%
4%
4%
7%
5%

The increasing trend of recent purchasers selling might just be from the additional years in the last category.  It was 2012-2015 when this graph began, and now it covers seven years – almost twice as many.

Are those sellers moving up or down?  Or cashing out?

The younger boomers:

  1. Probably moved up a couple of times, not sitting on family homestead.
  2. Are used to moving more.
  3. Are more physically capable of moving.
  4. Have a little less connection to the neighborhood.
  5. Still have some adventure left in them.

But the younger boomers:

  1. Are more likely to still be working.
  2. Are more likely to still have kids at home.
  3. Are more capable of modifying their home.
  4. Don’t need assisted living.

With long-time owners providing the bulk of the inventory, we should expect older homes for sale that need fixing, or at least some updating. Yet the current trend is for buyers getting more picky, not less.

More stats:

Other
12/12/15
3/19/16
6/18/16
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
8/5/18
# Sales
125
114
144
112
99
99
102
Avg. $/sf
$505/sf
$552/sf
$550/sf
$529/sf
$481/sf
$532/sf
$558/sf
Median SP
$1.08M
$1.129M
$1.291M
$1.274M
$1.11M
$1.25M
$1.34M
Avg DOM
60
38
42
54
43
52
36
0-10 DOM
24%
32%
35%
28%
45%
42%
31%
Lost $$
11
3
7
7
0
1
2
DOM = 0
5
8
7
2
4
3
8

Posted by on Aug 6, 2018 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Slowdown Data

Here is some data to help calibrate the slowdown fears.

These NSDCC detached-home inventory counts are from the first week of April, and the last week of July, plus a look at the closed sales for the first seven months of the year:

Year
April Inventory
July Inventory
# Diff
NSDCC Sales Jan-July
2014
886
1,167
281
1,701
2015
834
1,098
264
1,876
2016
961
1,158
197
1,793
2017
817
947
130
1,847
2018
770
994
224
1,678

The 2018 numbers don’t look much worse than in recent years.  Once the July sales are finalized, this year’s sales count should be close to 1,700.

This is the time of year when the OPTs are stacking up, which makes it look like garbage time, and easier for buyers to go on vacation instead.  It also makes it tougher for the decent buys to stand out.

Posted by on Aug 3, 2018 in Inventory, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 3 comments