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Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

San Diego Housing Affordability

Reader Rob asked,

Can you do an article on the housing affordability index related to NSDCC?  Just wondering what percentage of people need x amount of dollars with 20% down to afford a median priced home?

Let’s include data on the median price of detached-home active listings, and those sold in the last 90 days. I used an interest rate of 4.50%, 20% down payment (25% down payment on $2,395,000 price), and qualifying ratio of 35%:

Category
# in Category
Median Price
Cash to Close
Annual Income
SDCo Actives
3,912
$824,823
$170,000
$115,000
SDCo Solds
4,744
$624,700
$130,000
$87,000
NSDCC Actives
822
$2,395,000
$605,000
$312,000
NSDCC Solds
608
$1,327,500
$270,000
$185,000

The fixer market feels the impact. When it takes both spouses holding down good jobs to qualify, they don’t have the time or patience to fix up a house – they want and need a house in good shape. Maybe this is where Zillow and others can provide more renovated homes to fit the needs of today’s buyers.

Posted by on Apr 17, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Mortgage Qualifying, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 8 comments

Robertson Wrap Up

It was almost four years to the day that the drone visited Robertson Ranch – before the development began.  Here is a post from 4/17/2014 when I was still piloting the drone, and hit my peak elevation:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/04/17/drone-at-robertson-ranch/

They only have six houses left to sell, plus the models, which means they’ve sold nearly 300 houses at an average of about $1,100,000 (guessing) in the last 2-3 years – or about 100 million-dollar-houses per year:

I’ve sold multiple houses across the street from the R-Ranch for less than $200,000. Now that they can get 13x times that money on what was a strawberry field five years ago is mind-boggling.

Posted by on Apr 14, 2018 in Bubbleinfo TV, Builders, Carlsbad, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

NSDCC March Sales


Detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad are hanging tough – and still no flood of inventory, in spite of much higher prices!

NSDCC Stats for March

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
# Houses Listed in March
2013
299
$404/sf
$840,000
49
503
2014
219
$518/sf
$1,040,000
51
433
2015
298
$501/sf
$1,137,500
46
497
2016
252
$526/sf
$1,143,665
43
532
2017
258
$477/sf
$1,074,000
45
506
2018
255
$567/sf
$1,375,000
40
438

Posted by on Apr 11, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

1Q18 Stats

Higher-end markets are demonstrating what happens when you have ample inventory – though price will fix everything wrong here.  From cnbc:

Real estate sales in Manhattan plunged 25 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, as the new federal tax law, stock market swings and a glut of luxury condos spooked buyers.

Sales in the first quarter posted their largest drop in nearly a decade and reached their lowest level in more than six years, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. There were 2,180 sales in the first quarter, compared with 2,892 last year.

Prices are also under pressure. The average sales price dropped 8 percent compared from the same quarter last year.

Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said the uncertainty over the new federal tax law — which prevents residents in high-tax states like New York from deducting their state and local taxes — weighed on the market. In addition, closings at new condo towers have largely dried up, making the decline look even steeper. Add to that the recent swoons in the stock market, which New Yorkers watch closely, and you have buyers who are increasingly deciding to sit on the sidelines.

“There is a lot of uncertainty embedded in the market,” Miller said.

The high end of the market is getting hit the hardest, since it’s the most discretionary segment. Prices for luxury apartments in Manhattan fell 15 percent and sales were down 24 percent in the quarter from last year.

With so many luxury apartments still overpriced, they are now sitting on the market on average of more than a year and a half — a 50 percent jump over last year.

Miller said the central problem at the upper end of the market is asking prices. Many sellers have yet to lower their prices in keeping with the tax law changes and general slowdown since 2014.

“The next couple of years will be all about price discovery,” he said.

Link to Article

Our first quarter turned out better than expected.

Last week I thought we’d be hitting about 550 sales, but we’re already up to 565 with more late-reporters to come:

NSDCC 1st Quarter Stats

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
# Houses Listed in 1Q
2013
672
$386/sf
$839,450
25
1,288
2014
581
$503/sf
$1,000,000
26
1,235
2015
634
$507/sf
$1,160,400
29
1,318
2016
573
$544/sf
$1,125,000
27
1,449
2017
606
$498/sf
$1,175,000
23
1,293
2018
565
$570/sf
$1,315,435
17
1,208

Posted by on Apr 3, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

Here are the new actives and pendings for the last six weeks, and how they compare to previous years:

Week
2015 A/P
2016 A/P
2017 A/P
2018 A/P
Feb
83/64
80/72
66/73
87/57
Mar
99/68
123/52
102/66
84/62
Mar
93/76
101/75
99/59
107/67
Mar
101/84
90/75
93/82
88/59
Mar
89/81
94/64
82/60
99/55
Apr
80/58
112/72
104/70
87/66
Totals
545/431
600/410
546/410
552/366

The new pendings this year are about 10% below the last couple of years, and the common explanation you see in the media points to the lack of inventory.

But we’re having about the same number of listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, they are just high-enders – the median LP currently is $2,495,000.

Read More

Posted by on Apr 2, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales 1Q18

The sales count is dropping between La Jolla and Carlsbad, but it’s not surprising when you consider how much higher the pricing is, and the fewer homes being listed:

NSDCC 1st Quarter Stats

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
# Houses Listed in 1Q
2013
672
$386/sf
$839,450
25
1,288
2014
581
$503/sf
$1,000,000
26
1,235
2015
634
$507/sf
$1,160,400
29
1,318
2016
573
$544/sf
$1,125,000
27
1,449
2017
606
$498/sf
$1,175,000
23
1,293
2018
502
$574/sf
$1,302,165
17
1,160

In 2017, we had 25 closings over the last two days of March, so if we add that same number to this year’s count plus late reporters, we should end up with around 550 sales for 1Q18 – which is incredible, given the bump in pricing AND the record-low number of houses listed.

The only year between 2007 and 2012 that didn’t have 1,400+ listings in the first quarter was 2012, which still had 1,270.  We’re going to be lucky to get up to 1,200 this year.

Posted by on Mar 29, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC February Sales

Note the train tracks to the left – just 45 trains per day!

John Hood and his wife Sally have bought a $21.5 million mansion on an oceanside bluff in Del Mar in the county’s most expensive real estate transaction since 2007.

You may recall Hood’s name from headlines in January, when news broke that his stealth life science company, Impact Biomedicines, was acquired by pharma giant Celgene for $1.1 billion up front in a deal that could max out at $7 billion.

Hood’s story is one of perseverance as he worked on the key drug in the deal for more than a decade with two companies. The drug, fedratinib, was near final approval back in 2008 only to be halted by the FDA when safety concerns emerged.

The company was sold, and Hood eventually founded Impact and raised more than $100 million to buy the rights to the drug and continue development.

The Del Mar estate was built over eight years for former activist investor David Batchelder, who along with Ralph Whitworth in 1996 founded the local investor activist firm Relational Investors.

They grew the firm to more than $6 billion in assets before Whitworth contracted throat cancer, and in 2014 they began divesting the firm. Whitworth died in 2016. Batchelder never spent a night in his dream home; he is retired and living in Pennsylvania with his wife.

Among Whitworth’s legacy is a $10 million gift to fund cancer research at UC San Diego and the La Jolla Institute for Allergy & Immunology. Another is putting together the Rolling Stones’ 14-song private show at the Belly Up in Solana Beach prior to the band’s 2015 appearance at Petco Park.

Link to Article

Given that prices are so much higher than they were 5-6 years ago and we’ll still have some late-reporters, it is astonishing that last month’s sales were this close to the six-year average of 170.

Year
Number of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
188
$399/sf
$887,500
74
2014
180
$487/sf
$927,500
58
2015
171
$519/sf
$1,110,000
63
2016
150
$564/sf
$1,150,000
54
2017
173
$508/sf
$1,265,000
52
2018
161
$572/sf
$1,265,000
38

New February records in pricing and average days-on-market, and that’s with no duplicate listings included. If we take out the whopping $3,452/sf from the big-bomber featured above, the average for the month was still $550/sf.

(Feb 2018 stats updated 3/16/18)

Posted by on Mar 8, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Pending Home Sales

Our new pendings are down about 10% year-over-year, which suggests that the NAR index will be struggling in February too.  Yun said that the January inventory was down 9.5% and at an all-time low, but we had 5% more new NSDCC listings in January.

WASHINGTON (February 28, 2018) — After seeing a modest three-month rise in activity, pending home sales cooled considerably in January to their lowest level in over three years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions experienced monthly and annual declines in contract signings last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 4.7 percent to 104.6 in January from a downwardly revised 109.8 in December 2017. After last month’s retreat, the index is now 3.8 percent below a year ago and at its lowest level since October 2014 (104.1).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales took a noticeable step back to start 2018. “The economy is in great shape, most local job markets are very strong and incomes are slowly rising, but there’s little doubt last month’s retreat in contract signings occurred because of woefully low supply levels and the sudden increase in mortgage rates,” said Yun. “The lower end of the market continues to feel the brunt of these supply and affordability impediments. With the cost of buying a home getting more expensive and not enough inventory, some prospective buyers are either waiting until listings increase come spring or now having to delay their search entirely to save up for a larger down payment.”

Added Yun, “Even though contract signings were down, Realtors® indicated that buyer traffic in most areas was up January compared to a year ago. The exception was likely in the Northeast, where the frigid cold snap the first two weeks of the month may have contributed some to the region’s large decline.”

The number of available listings at the end of January was at an all-time low for the month and a startling 9.5 percent below a year ago.

Link to Article

Posted by on Feb 28, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments