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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Who Is Selling?

Who is selling?

Over the last few years we’ve seen that most home sellers are the long-time owners, and that trend is continuing.

On the left are the years when the sellers purchased the home they sold between July 26 and August 3rd of this year:

Year Purchased
12/12/15
3/19/16
6/18/16
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
8/5/18
0 – 2003
41%
42%
39%
57%
48%
32%
42%
2004 – 2008
23%
29%
24%
19%
15%
12%
14%
2009 – 2011
15%
11%
13%
6%
7%
14%
12%
2012 – 2018
18%
18%
19%
13%
25%
34%
29%
New Homes
2%
1%
5%
4%
4%
7%
5%

The increasing trend of recent purchasers selling might just be from the additional years in the last category.  It was 2012-2015 when this graph began, and now it covers seven years – almost twice as many.

Are those sellers moving up or down?  Or cashing out?

The younger boomers:

  1. Probably moved up a couple of times, not sitting on family homestead.
  2. Are used to moving more.
  3. Are more physically capable of moving.
  4. Have a little less connection to the neighborhood.
  5. Still have some adventure left in them.

But the younger boomers:

  1. Are more likely to still be working.
  2. Are more likely to still have kids at home.
  3. Are more capable of modifying their home.
  4. Don’t need assisted living.

With long-time owners providing the bulk of the inventory, we should expect older homes for sale that need fixing, or at least some updating. Yet the current trend is for buyers getting more picky, not less.

More stats:

Other
12/12/15
3/19/16
6/18/16
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
8/5/18
# Sales
125
114
144
112
99
99
102
Avg. $/sf
$505/sf
$552/sf
$550/sf
$529/sf
$481/sf
$532/sf
$558/sf
Median SP
$1.08M
$1.129M
$1.291M
$1.274M
$1.11M
$1.25M
$1.34M
Avg DOM
60
38
42
54
43
52
36
0-10 DOM
24%
32%
35%
28%
45%
42%
31%
Lost $$
11
3
7
7
0
1
2
DOM = 0
5
8
7
2
4
3
8

Posted by on Aug 6, 2018 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Slowdown Data

Here is some data to help calibrate the slowdown fears.

These NSDCC detached-home inventory counts are from the first week of April, and the last week of July, plus a look at the closed sales for the first seven months of the year:

Year
April Inventory
July Inventory
# Diff
NSDCC Sales Jan-July
2014
886
1,167
281
1,701
2015
834
1,098
264
1,876
2016
961
1,158
197
1,793
2017
817
947
130
1,847
2018
770
994
224
1,678

The 2018 numbers don’t look much worse than in recent years.  Once the July sales are finalized, this year’s sales count should be close to 1,700.

This is the time of year when the OPTs are stacking up, which makes it look like garbage time, and easier for buyers to go on vacation instead.  It also makes it tougher for the decent buys to stand out.

Posted by on Aug 3, 2018 in Inventory, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 3 comments

NSDCC July Sales and Pricing

It may feel like a slowdown, but houses are still selling! By the time every agent reports their July sales, we should be up to at least 275 sales for 2018:

NSDCC July Sales

Year
July # of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
Avg. Days on Market
2014
271
$451/sf
$1,018,000
46
2015
321
$458/sf
$1,025,000
41
2016
270
$504/sf
$1,105,000
34
2017
260
$529/sf
$1,243,250
45
2018
261
$534/sf
$1,285,000
42

The pricing increases have settled down, so if sellers don’t mind selling for about what the last guy got, they should be ok.  Or if they have something special, there might still be a chance at a frenzy!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Link to Brady story

Like the rest of us, former *NSYNC singer Lance Bass just isn’t ready to say — cue the music — “Bye, Bye, Bye” to the “Brady Bunch” house. The boy band legend is reportedly one of at least five bidders vying for a chance to buy the iconic house used to portray the home on the popular 1970s family show.

The house hit the market this month for the first time since 1973, and its owners are hoping to attract a buyer who will preserve the piece of Americana rather than tear it down, a real threat in the Studio City neighborhood where developers routinely tear down and rebuild.

According to Douglas Elliman realtor Ernie Carswell, five bidders got offers in before the midnight deadline Tuesday.

“We’re not going to accept the first big offer from a developer who wants to tear it down,” Carswell told the Los Angeles Times.

Bass hopes he’s the buyer they are looking for.

“I’m obviously obsessed with ‘The Brady Bunch.’ I mean, I grew up watching that show. Reruns!” Bass said on the “Big Brother” show “Off the Block.”

He said he plans to truly make it the Brady Bunch house.

“I’m going to turn it into the TV house, because you know it doesn’t have a second floor and all that kinda stuff, but I’m going to go back to the original, original house,” he said.

Listed at $1,885,000, the two-bedroom home is billed as America’s second most photographed home behind the White House.

Situated in Studio City’s Colfax Meadows, the home boasts a gated motor court and two master suites. According to records, Violet and George McCallister bought the house for $61,000 in 1973 when the “Brady Bunch” was still airing. While the interior never served as a set for the show, the home is like a time capsule, with decor unchanged since the early ’70s. It has a wet bar, a tall stone fireplace and a master bedroom with wall-to-wall hot pink Toile de Jouy wallpaper and matching bedspread.

Link to listing

Posted by on Aug 2, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC Annual Sales History

When I first saw this graph, I thought it was the perfect way to sum up the changes in the marketplace since the 2000-2009 era.  Back then, people were younger, there were plenty of homes for sale, and prices were relatively affordable, so we always had a very fluid move-up and move-down market.

But to see that average tenure has doubled between 2009 and 2017 is striking.

Have the number of sales changed?

NSDCC Annual Sales of Detached Homes

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Annual % Chg in MSP
1999
3,236
$475,000
2000
3,285
$555,000
+17%
2001
2,926
$570,000
+3%
2002
3,717
$630,000
+11%
2003
3,932
$732,500
+16%
2004
3,363
$948,000
+29%
2005
3,014
$1,000,000
+5%
2006
2,626
$985,000
-2%
2007
2,479
$1,000,000
+2%
2008
2,037
$890,000
-11%
2009
2,223
$817,000
-8%
2010
2,461
$830,000
+2%
2011
2,562
$825,000
-1%
2012
3,154
$830,000
+1%
2013
3,218
$952,250
+15%
2014
2,850
$1,025,000
+8%
2015
3,079
$1,090,000
+6%
2016
3,103
$1,160,000
+6%
2017
3,084
$1,225,000
+6%
Medians
3,079
$890,000
+6%

Given the huge change in price and that more people are staying put than ever, it is shocking to see that sales have been relatively consistent in recent years.

How do you explain it?

It must mean that the demand is fueled by those who don’t have a house yet – first-timers, and those coming from out of town. It explains why they jump at buying when they see a good one – they don’t have one yet.  Those who already have a house here aren’t as impressed.

The population has grown 25% in San Diego County since 2000, and 30yr-fixed mortgage rates are about half of what they were then.  But for sales to be this strong when repeat movers are so scarce, is remarkable!

P.S. We’ve had 1,620 closings this year, with a median SP = $1,321,500.

Link to Attom article

Posted by on Jul 27, 2018 in North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 2 comments

Late-Season Rally?

Hat tip to JT who sent in this doomy article about home sales:

Southern California home sales hit the brakes in June, falling to the lowest reading for the month in four years. Sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums dropped 11.8 percent year over year, as prices shot up to a record high, according to CoreLogic. The report covers Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

Sales fell 1.1 percent compared with May, but the average change from May to June, going back to 1988, is a 6 percent gain.

The weakness was especially apparent in sales of newly built homes, which were 47 percent below the June average. Part of that is that builders are putting up fewer homes, so there is simply less to sell.

“A portion of last month’s year-over-year sales decline reflects one less business day for deals to be recorded compared with June 2017,” noted Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst. “But affordability and inventory constraints are likely the main culprits in last month’s sales slowdown, which applied to all six of the region’s counties and across most of the major price categories.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/southern-california-home-sales-crash-a-warning-sign-to-the-nation.html

We already saw that NSDCC sales in May and June were both down 20% YoY, but this month we’re hanging tough with last year!

Year
NSDCC Closed Sales, July 1-15
Median Sales Price
Average $$/sf
2012
111
$850,000
$383/sf
2013
150
$927,500
$409/sf
2014
113
$950,000
$439/sf
2015
156
$1,025,000
$459/sf
2016
139
$1,140,000
$523/sf
2017
120
$1,250,000
$507/sf
2018
119
$1,285,000
$558/sf

There’s still time to get in before school starts!

Posted by on Jul 26, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 7 comments

Faster Selling in NSDCC

How fast are houses selling between La Jolla and Carlsbad this year?

Number of Days On Market Number of Houses Sold Percent of Total
0-14 days
719
47%
15-30
278
18%
31-45
153
10%
46-60
97
6%
61-75
73
5%
76-90
44
3%
91+
180
12%

We may be selling fewer homes, but they are selling faster!  Nearly two-thirds are finding a buyer in the first 30 days on the market.

How does this compare with previous years?  For the first 6.5 months:

2015: 39% sold between 0-14 days on market (675/1,711).

2016: 39% sold between 0-14 days on market (651/1,662).

2017: 45% sold between 0-14 days on market (770/1,707).

2018: 47% sold between 0-14 days on market (719/1,544).

Sellers should expect immediate action, and take advantage of it! If you don’t want to sell in the first couple of weeks, then you should wait until you get closer to your preferred exit date.

This is also why the re-freshing of listings is so widespread – buyers want the new meat. Check the history of every new listing!

Posted by on Jul 19, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC 2Q Sales

Let’s examine by zip code where the market might be slowing recently. These are the detached-home sales for the second quarter, plus the current number of pendings in each area:

Area
Zip Code
Sales 2Q16
Sales 2Q17
Sales 2Q18
Pendings Today
Cardiff
92007
25
30
11
9
Carlsbad NW
92008
49
67
67
20
Carlsbad SE
92009
161
181
148
64
Carlsbad NE
92010
49
51
47
26
Carlsbad SW
92011
80
91
60
26
Del Mar
92014
55
45
47
8
Encinitas
92024
144
141
110
51
La Jolla
92037
113
105
104
42
RSF
92067
76
79
55
43
Solana Bch
92075
19
33
21
10
Carmel Vly
92130
173
153
166
55
All Above
All
944
976
836
354

If the numbers for 2Q18 are remarkably under the first two columns, and the number of pendings are so low that the 3Q18 doesn’t look promising either, then you can figure that the market is soft, and getting softer in that zip code (Cardiff, Carlsbad SW, & Encinitas).

Posted by on Jul 18, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

But all in all, we’re in pretty good shape today.

The active inventory hasn’t exploded, and as long as the supply stays in check, the sellers aren’t going to panic.  Do the buyers have the willingness and ability to wait it out, with no assurance it will ever get better?  Or will the lack of solid evidence keep the ball rolling, albeit at a slower pace?

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97
July 16, 2018
973
357
1,330
2.73

NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,288,045

NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,395,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000 (which are the same ratios as the last reading in April, 2017).

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area:

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Apr
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.5
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
1.2
2.9
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
1.0
1.3
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
0.9
1.1
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.4
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
3.3
9.4
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.6
2.0
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
3.7
4.4
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
5.2
4.6
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
1.5
2.0
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.1
1.9
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.0
2.7

These stats are going to bounce around, so there isn’t anything here that gets me overly concerned.

Del Mar has always been a smaller, expensive subset (just eight pendings today), La Jolla is in line with their recent past, and RSF is as good as it’s been in years. Everything else is around the regular 2.0 ratio for a normal market.

Posted by on Jul 16, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

The pending counts have been dropping precipitously since June 11:

NSDCC All: -15%

Under-$1,000,000: -29%

While a lower number of pendings can be due to more closings from the fat part of the selling season, it not like we’re setting any sales records either.  The NSDCC June sales are down 20%, year-over-year, just like they were in May.

Get Good Help!

Read More

Posted by on Jul 9, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment