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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Data Declines

The data keeps pointing to a slowdown, and like a Yu Darvish hanging curveball, once it’s in flight, there’s not much you can do.  Few sellers need to sell bad enough that a substantial price reduction will be considered – and there isn’t enough competition to cause any fear.  For buyers who keep reading about the threat of rising rates, it can be very frustrating.

Here’s how the C.A.R. describes it:

• Pending home sales have declined on an annual basis for eight of the last nine months so far this year. After a solid run-up of closed sales in May, June, and August, continued housing inventory issues and affordability constraints may have pushed the market to a tipping point, suggesting the pace of growth will begin to slow in the fall.

• C.A.R.’s Market Velocity Index – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory, or market indicator of future price appreciation – suggests that there continues to be upward pressure on home prices through the fall. Home sales continue to outstrip new listings coming online to restock sold units.

• The Market Velocity Index dipped from 53 to 52, implying that there were 52 percent more homes sold than new listings, meaning the supply of homes available for sale continued to drop.

However, fewer homes are coming to market, in spite of record pricing:

NSDCC # of Houses Listed Between August 1 – September 30th:

2016: 848

2017: 738

Diff:  -13%

All SD County # of Houses Listed Between August 1 – September 30th:

2016: 6,006

2017: 5,346

Diff:  -11%

NSDCC # of Houses Listed In September Only:

2016: 413

2017: 337

Diff:  -18%

All SD County # of Houses Listed In September Only:

2016: 2,836

2017: 2,473

Diff:  -13%

With fewer homes to sell, the percentages of pending and closed sales have nowhere to go but down – and we’re doing fine, considering the inventory.  The declines in the pending and closed sales are in line with, or better than the decline in new listings.

Posted by on Nov 2, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 5 comments

Gap Between Median List and Sale Prices

Reader hema-mendo wondered about the mega-gap between the NSDCC median list price, and median sales price for the last 30 days:

I don’t get it. Why is the spread so wide?

It is a bit alarming to see more than a million-dollar gap between the two:

NSDCC median list price: $2,300,000

NSDCC median sales price, last 30 days: $1,245,300

Half of the current listings – and 83% of the sales – are under $2,300,000!  None of the supply-and-demand economics seem to apply to the high-end sellers and their agents – they are happy to sit and wait……for something.

Most probably think it just takes time before the right young couple with 2.2 kids comes along some day.  But the numbers are daunting.

A median list price means we have 402 houses listed over $2,300,000, and there were 41 sales of the same over the last 30 days – let’s call it a 10-month supply.  But it’s been this way for years, and no one seems to mind.

This is what happens when virtually everyone on the market is an elective seller, and is loaded with equity.  Once a house hits the open market, the ego takes over because now the sellers’ family and friends know the price.  Unless the reason for selling is one of the Big Three (death, divorce, or job transfer), the seller’s ego insists on defending that price, even though nobody has looked at their home for weeks or months.

Waiting is much easier on the ego than having to dump on price.

Posted by on Oct 17, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC September Sales, Preliminary

Here’s the preliminary data for detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad last month:

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
2012
289
$373/sf
$780,000
70
2013
263
$470/sf
$1,110,000
52
2014
236
$480/sf
$1,091,000
49
2015
251
$472/sf
$1,059,000
48
2016
264
$515/sf
$1,179,250
46
2017
242
$538/sf
$1,266,110
43

With there being some similarity between this year and the Frenzy of 2013, we might see some resemblance next year to what we saw in 2014 – scattered and varying data on pricing.

When is the best time to sell?  When everyone else isn’t!

Save

Posted by on Oct 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Upside Potential

Jumbo mortgage rates in the threes have helped to propel our higher-end market to new heights.  Of the 854 houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad, 757 of them – or 89% – are listed over $1,000,000!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan 1 – Aug 31

Year
Total # of Sales
Sales Over $1M
Percentage of Sales Over $1M
2007
1,888
945
50%
2012
2,033
706
35%
2013
2,291
1,007
44%
2014
1,947
998
51%
2015
2,154
1,193
55%
2016
2,081
1,263
61%
2017
2,109
1,401
66%

The housing market – and its higher prices – are completely dependent upon mortgage rates staying ultra-low. Thankfully, hardly anyone needs to sell!

Here’s an interesting comparison:

The fixed-rate monthly payment on a $710,000 mortgage back in 2007 was the same as the monthly payment on a $1,000,000 mortgage today.  Yet, in spite of inflation, the San Diego Case-Shiller Index is about the same as it was in 2007!

With our prices still well under SF/LA/OC prices, and the market being flush with boomers who are retiring, we could have plenty of upside here.  The Fed is going to have to keep rates low, so as long as that happens, another 10% to 20% increase in prices is very feasible over the next five years.   Or at least until an extreme event happens, like a major earthquake, or some kook pushing the nuke button.

Look at how consistent the number of sales have been – there has been hardly any variation over the last six years (avg 2,103 sales).

This is where the stagnation would come in – prices could keep going up for the next few years, but with fewer houses selling – mostly because they don’t deserve the extra premium.

Posted by on Sep 7, 2017 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 4 comments

NSDCC August Sales

Here’s the preliminary data of detached-home sales for August between La Jolla and Carlsbad. By the time we’re done, the count should be 270 or so:

Year
# of Sales
Avg SF
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
2012
298
3,255sf
$381/sf
$865,000
77
2013
324
2,782sf
$437/sf
$953,750
40
2014
246
2,889sf
$500/sf
$1,050,000
45
2015
278
2,874sf
$470/sf
$1,030,000
44
2016
288
3,169sf
$487/sf
$1,199,500
48
2017
258
3,120sf
$554/sf
$1,250,500
47

Reader ‘just some guy’ wondered why 2-3 homes are not selling around his newer Carlsbad tract neighborhood. It’s the time of year when buyers are exhausted by how fast prices have been escalating, and they are holding out for perfection now. Historically though, we have been able to keep up the sales pace – last year we had 264 sales in September, and 274 in October!

In last month’s count above, I did take out the four duplicate sales from the CRMLS, the MLS to the north.  Note to Sandicor: Data-sharing is not the same as merging with CRMLS!

Posted by on Sep 6, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Coastal Pendings and DOM

As you scroll over previous years below, you can see that the mid-summer surge we’ve been enjoying is more uniform this year:

The median days-on-market time for last month’s detached-home sales was about the same as last July – and creeping up lately (scroll over graph):

In spite of higher prices, the number of new listings has dwindled:

It’s all good….until it isn’t!

Posted by on Aug 16, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC July 2017 Sales – Preliminary

Last month’s sales count looks like it is going to be less than previous Julys – the graph above has an extra 10% added to today’s count for late-reporters and it still comes in under the last four Julys.

Year
July # of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
2013
297
$418/sf
$930,000
2014
271
$451/sf
$1,018,000
2015
321
$458/sf
$1,025,000
2016
270
$504/sf
$1,105,000
2017
231
$526/sf
$1,225,000

However, the May and June sales this year were outstanding – overall, the sales from the last three months measure up pretty well:

NSDCC May-July Sales

2013: 992

2014: 862

2015: 960

2016: 915

2017: 933 (plus 20-30 more to be added by late-reporters)

This year’s three-month total could be the highest since the Frenzy of 2013, which would be remarkable considering that prices are about 30% higher today!

Posted by on Aug 1, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Year-Over-Year

In the last post we saw that the median sales price for San Diego is up 11.2% year-over-year.  Let’s check the individual areas between Carlsbad and La Jolla, using the combined May/June Y-O-Y data for larger sample sizes:

Area
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Chg
Avg $$/sf
Chg
Cardiff
15/19
$1,607,500/$1,420,000
-12%
$669/$710
+6%
Carlsbad NW
31/46
$930,000/$912,400
-2%
$432/$497
+15%
Carlsbad SE
106/128
$971,000/$1,011,500
+4%
$348/$365
+4%
Carlsbad NE
28/39
$729,500/$790,000
+8%
$345/$361
+5%
Carlsbad SW
59/61
$969,000/$1,100,000
+14%
$380/$399
+5%
Del Mar
33/30
$1,895,000/$1,850,000
-2%
$935/$826
-13%
Encinitas
104/100
$1,270,000/$1,237,500
-3%
$516/$564
+9%
La Jolla
72/76
$1,978,000/$2,309,000
+17%
$787/$879
+12%
RSF
61/56
$2,400,000/$2,260,000
-6%
$510/$482
-6%
Solana Beach
16/21
$1,210,000/$1,445,000
+19%
$642/$707
+10%
Carmel Vly
120/118
$1,123,500/$1,208,000
+8%
$409/$449
+10%
All Above
645/699
$1,200,888/$1,235,000
+3%
$502/$497
-1%

Comparing the sales counts is the best way to gauge the overall health of the market, and they are looking good in all areas.

Neither of the price metrics are that great, but in areas where both are heading in the same direction suggests a trend.

Posted by on Jul 14, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC First Half Sales

Sales have been remarkably steady for the first half of the last three years, with only a slight variance in the sales count:

Year
# of 1H Sales
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2012
1,477
$815,000
86
51
2013
1,670
$919,250
51
21
2014
1,430
$1,020,000
49
24
2015
1,555
$1,120,000
50
23
2016
1,523
$1,150,000
44
24
2017
1,571
$1,225,000
44
19

In the first half of 2012, there were 331 houses that sold under $600,000.

This year we had 11.

Posted by on Jul 7, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

La Jolla Open House

Glad to be back home Saturday in my favorite town of all-time, La Jolla, CA.  Please join me 1-3pm Saturday for open house at 3340 Caminito Vasto!





Zillow is supposed to be auto-uploading every listing with 60 minutes, but here we are eight hours after MLS input and my listing is still not on Zillow.  Hmmm.

Here is the red team’s link instead:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3340-Caminito-Vasto-92037/home/4883947

You may have seen that they announced today that they are going public, and those who bet the farm will be amply rewarded, not because they provide a better service, but because they offer the sexiest disruptor.

Save

Posted by on Jun 30, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Listing Agent Practices, North County Coastal, Open House | 2 comments