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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC Action

Here’s another way to dissect the current market conditions:

Price
Active Listings
%
Pendings
%
Solds last 60 days
%
Under $1M
155
13%
140
34%
213
36%
$1M – $2M
437
38%
207
50%
273
46%
Over $2M
569
49%
65
16%
103
17%
Totals
1,161
100%
412
100%
589
100%

The lower end is starved for inventory, and the high-end is bloated with offerings!  The majority of the high-enders must be hoping to downsize, but it’s not killing them to hold out. It’s easier to stay put in comfortable surroundings and pay higher utility bills until that young family with 2.2 kids comes along.

For those high-enders who really want/need to move, just lower your price – the 103 closed sales in the last 60 days shows you how affluent this area is!

Posted by on Jul 15, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC 2016 Sales Predictions

NSDCC Quarterly Sales

The rest of the year is shaping up quite nicely – if all that matters are stats.

After a slow start in 1Q16, we closed 909 sales in the second quarter!  After a strong 2015, there was some expectation for a pullback this year, but not yet – we exceeded the 2Q15 total of 901 sales!

Can we predict the rest of 2016?

We had similar second-quarter counts in both 2012 and 2015 as we did this year, and in both years the 3Q counts dropped off about the same (845 and 832).  With the attractive mortgage rates we should at least equal, and hopefully do a little better?  Let’s predict 850 NSDCC sales for the third quarter of 2016.

The last 3 fourth quarters have been almost identical – sales counts in the 660s.

We had 556 + 909 = 1,465 sales in first half of 2016.

Today we have 416 pendings.

Predicting 850 + 660 = 1,510 sales in second half of 2016.

Here are the NSDCC quarterly sales numbers:

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
850?
4Q
832
664
666
662
660?
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
2,975?

What needs to happen to ensure a vibrant second half of 2016?

Buyers need to make offers.

Sellers aren’t going to go first.

Even if they did lower the price, it won’t be by much.  Mid-summer is here, and buyers have more permission. It’s not April any more!

Posted by on Jul 12, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC June Sales and Pricing

bump

When comparing the 2016 activity to previous years, we stack up pretty good – when we combine months.

Here are the links to May/June and Jan-Jun numbers.

But when we look at June only, it looks like we’ve hit a bump in the road:

June Sales and Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg Cost-per-SF
Median Sales Price
2012
339
$368/sf
$867,500
2013
333
$453/sf
$1,025,000
2014
322
$481/sf
$1,077,850
2015
336
$484/sf
$1,116,000
May16
326
$498/sf
$1,208,750
2016
286
$512/sf
$1,200,000

There will be a few more late-reporters, but not enough to change the fact that June sales declined by double-digit amounts – both MoM and YoY.

The low rates should keep us going through summer though!

Posted by on Jul 10, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC May/June Sales

hot market

A good way to measure the strength of the spring selling season would be to examine home sales that close in May and June.  In spite of medians that have jumped 30% or more in just five years, and a low-end market that has evaporated, sales in May/June of this year were very strong:

NSDCC House Sales, for May/June

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median Cost-per-SF
# of Sales Under $800,000
2012
628
$850,000
$317/sf
282
2013
695
$975,000
$372/sf
231
2014
591
$1,000,000
$388/sf
167
2015
623
$1,125,000
$402/sf
138
2016
607
$1,209,000
$419/sf
98

It’s not the low-end that is carrying this market – it is the affluent.  It’s why the market will likely keep going – people have more money than houses!

You can also see how difficult it is to downsize.  Those who are looking to pocket a big windfall – hopefully the entire $500,000 tax-free amount – will recognize how hard it is to stay around the coast.

Of the 98 sold under $800,000, only 31 of them were single-story!

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Posted by on Jul 6, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Preliminary 1H16 Numbers

fireworks

Today is the last day of the first half of 2016!

Here is how this year’s NSDCC market compares to previous years:

First Half
New Listings
Houses Sold
Median Sales Price
2012
2,545
1,477
$815,000
2013
2,790
1,670
$919,950
2014
2,712
1,430
$1,020,000
2015
2,769
1,530
$1,127,500
2016
2,879
1,465
$1,154,000

The final counts for 2016 should end up close to 2,900 listings, and 1,500 sales (numbers above were updated on 7/10/16).

It doesn’t really matter if there are more listings scattered around not selling – they only matter if they dump on price to get ‘er done!

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Posted by on Jun 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Existing Home Sales, May 2016

existing home sales

The national cheerleaders get excited about every nugget of data, and are happy to jump to conclusions.  Yunnie is finally tip-toeing around the downsizing trend that we see everywhere around here, but he can’t assume that those sellers are buying too:

“The May gain over April signals that the real estate market has maintained strong momentum all spring,” says realtor.com chief economist Jonathan Smoke. “We are now in this year’s peak home buying months, and this pace of sales should produce the gains we have been forecasting that will make 2016 the best year of home sales in a decade.

The biggest challenge to prospective buyers right now is tight supply, which we have seen for 45 consecutive months. In these conditions, home values have strong support, but potential buyers will continue to face challenges finding a home for sale that meets their needs. That is why we’re seeing the age of inventory drop dramatically while prices have gone up 5 percent over the last year and are now at record nominal levels.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month. “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he says. “With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

Adds Yun, “Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

The local NSDCC sales in May built on the momentum from April, and the 2016 three-month total looks very similar to last year (865 vs. 859):

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
299
320
$1,216,250
$500/sf
$419/sf

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Posted by on Jun 23, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

We figure a ‘healthy’ market has a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings.  Here is our last look at the actives/pendings ratio, from March 23rd:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

The market was humming along at the end of March, judging by how many areas have their A/P ratio under 2.0.

Today there are 17% more houses for sale, and 7% more pendings, which seems fairly healthy at a 2.46 ratio overall.  The majority of areas (6 of 11) are under 2.0 too, and to no one’s surprise, they are the cheaper areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
21
9
2.33
$1,650,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
45
23
1.96
$1,206,908
Carlsbad SE
92009
113
69
1.64
$1,250,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
13
18
0.72
$785,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
53
34
1.56
$1,149,000
Del Mar
92014
73
23
3.17
$2,475,000
Encinitas
92024
108
81
1.33
$1,650,000
La Jolla
92037
221
46
4.80
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
247
30
8.23
$3,199,000
Solana Bch
92075
26
9
2.89
$2,472,500
Carmel Vly
92130
132
86
1.53
$1,497,000
All Above
All
1,052
428
2.46
$2,098,500

Take out Rancho Santa Fe and the NSDCC overall ratio is 2.04!

Posted by on Jun 21, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-06-19 11.01.03

The higher-end inventory has been bloated – today we have 468 NSDCC houses for sale over $2,400,000, and 43 have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

But in the next category down, the number of houses for sale has been rising for weeks.  On April 18th, we had 257 active listings priced between $1,400,000 and $2,400,000, and now we have 344 for sale, which is a 34% increase in just two months – and during the selling season!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jun 20, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

How Long Have Sellers Owned 3

The first posting in this series was on December 12 – let’s check in occasionally to see how long recent sellers owned their home before they sold it.

Here is the third review of the NSDCC detached-home sales – these are sales that have closed so far in June, 2016:

Year Purchased
1st Review (12/12/15)
2nd Review (3/19/16)
3rd Review (6/18/16)
1900-1999
34 (27%)
28 (25%)
31 (22%)
2000 – 2003
18 (14%)
19 (17%)
25 (17%)
2004 – 2008
29 (23%)
33 (29%)
34 (24%)
2009 – 2011
19 (15%)
12 (11%)
19 (13%)
2012 – 2016
22 (18%)
21 (18%)
27 (19%)
New Home
3 (2%)
1 (1%)
8 (5%)

Those long-time owners continue to lead the pack, with 49% of sellers having owned their home more than 12 years before selling it this month.

Buyers should be prepared for fixers, and sellers should do what they can to improve their home to sell because nearly half of the sales probably look dated.

Interesting that those who could make the quickest big profits, those who bought in 2009-2001, were the least likely to sell.

More stats:

Other Categories
1st Review (12/12/15)
2nd Review (3/19/16)
3rd Review (6/18/16)
Number of Sales
125
114
144
Avg. $$/sf
$505/sf
$552/sf
$550/sf
Median SP
$1,080,000
$1,129,000
$1,291,500
Avg DOM
60
38
42
Sold in First 10 Days
24%
32%
35%
Lost $$
11
3
7
0 DOM
5
8
7

Pricing is still strong, and buyers are stepping up!

Posted by on Jun 18, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales

Rates 2016

Low mortgage rates are keeping the party going!

As mortgage rates dipped back into the mid-3s in February, buyers responded. The closed sales in April and May were healthy, and supported by sellers who are being reasonable about price – the cost-per-sf is about the same as last May.

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
300
316
$1,216,250
$497/sf
$415/sf

Flat to slightly-rising prices are the happy compromise for everyone!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments