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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC Year-Over-Year

In the last post we saw that the median sales price for San Diego is up 11.2% year-over-year.  Let’s check the individual areas between Carlsbad and La Jolla, using the combined May/June Y-O-Y data for larger sample sizes:

Area
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Chg
Avg $$/sf
Chg
Cardiff
15/19
$1,607,500/$1,420,000
-12%
$669/$710
+6%
Carlsbad NW
31/46
$930,000/$912,400
-2%
$432/$497
+15%
Carlsbad SE
106/128
$971,000/$1,011,500
+4%
$348/$365
+4%
Carlsbad NE
28/39
$729,500/$790,000
+8%
$345/$361
+5%
Carlsbad SW
59/61
$969,000/$1,100,000
+14%
$380/$399
+5%
Del Mar
33/30
$1,895,000/$1,850,000
-2%
$935/$826
-13%
Encinitas
104/100
$1,270,000/$1,237,500
-3%
$516/$564
+9%
La Jolla
72/76
$1,978,000/$2,309,000
+17%
$787/$879
+12%
RSF
61/56
$2,400,000/$2,260,000
-6%
$510/$482
-6%
Solana Beach
16/21
$1,210,000/$1,445,000
+19%
$642/$707
+10%
Carmel Vly
120/118
$1,123,500/$1,208,000
+8%
$409/$449
+10%
All Above
645/699
$1,200,888/$1,235,000
+3%
$502/$497
-1%

Comparing the sales counts is the best way to gauge the overall health of the market, and they are looking good in all areas.

Neither of the price metrics are that great, but in areas where both are heading in the same direction suggests a trend.

Posted by on Jul 14, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC First Half Sales

Sales have been remarkably steady for the first half of the last three years, with only a slight variance in the sales count:

Year
# of 1H Sales
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2012
1,477
$815,000
86
51
2013
1,670
$919,250
51
21
2014
1,430
$1,020,000
49
24
2015
1,555
$1,120,000
50
23
2016
1,523
$1,150,000
44
24
2017
1,571
$1,225,000
44
19

In the first half of 2012, there were 331 houses that sold under $600,000.

This year we had 11.

Posted by on Jul 7, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

La Jolla Open House

Glad to be back home Saturday in my favorite town of all-time, La Jolla, CA.  Please join me 1-3pm Saturday for open house at 3340 Caminito Vasto!





Zillow is supposed to be auto-uploading every listing with 60 minutes, but here we are eight hours after MLS input and my listing is still not on Zillow.  Hmmm.

Here is the red team’s link instead:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3340-Caminito-Vasto-92037/home/4883947

You may have seen that they announced today that they are going public, and those who bet the farm will be amply rewarded, not because they provide a better service, but because they offer the sexiest disruptor.

Save

Posted by on Jun 30, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Listing Agent Practices, North County Coastal, Open House | 2 comments

NSDCC Market Velocity

The C.A.R. is using a new metric – market velocity, which is what we’ve used here frequently to compare monthly solds to new listings:

Market Velocity – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory – continued its upward momentum in May, suggesting that home prices should grow further in the upcoming months. It is strongly correlated with increases/decreases in price growth with a roughly three- to six-month lag time.

It’s an imperfect measurement because the new listings each month don’t necessary have a direct relationship to those sold – very few are in both categories in the same month.  But comparing the rate of change to previous months and years gives us some warning about what’s coming.

Here’s how the NSDCC market (La Jolla to Carlsbad) is shaping up:

Month
2016 Sales
Listings
S/L Ratio
2017 Sales
Listings
S/L Ratio
Jan
171
470
.36
174
393
.44
Feb
150
446
.34
171
392
.44
Mar
252
532
.47
258
506
.51
Apr
305
524
.58
277
483
.57
May
334
506
.66
343
501
.68
Jun
311
512
.61
290
375
.77

This year’s momentum has been slightly better than last year, though not by much.  We have had a fantastic week of closings too, and this month’s sales should match or exceed last year’s by the time the count is complete!

The number of new listings this month looks dramatically low, but the count should get into the mid-400s when the final count is in.  No flood of supply yet!

Posted by on Jun 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Spring Selling Season is Done

Typically, sales begin to taper off in July and decline for the rest of the year.

This year should be no different…..and the drop might have already begun:

NSDCC Monthly Sales, 2017

May: 343

June: 225 (as of this morning)

The last week of the month always has a flurry of closings, and we should get close to 300 by the time the last June count is done.

But the rest of the year should be a bit slushy.

Posted by on Jun 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 1 comment

NSDCC May Sales

The Pending Home-Sales Index dipped 3.3% last week, which helped to fuel more doomer talk (examples here and here).

People assume that if the stats don’t rise every year, then we have a problem.  But doesn’t the number of homes for sale affect the outcome?  If there are 9% fewer new listings nationally this year, then a 3.3% drop in the new pendings doesn’t sound bad.

But local is what matters – how did we do in May?

NSDCC May Sales and Pricing

Year
# of May Sales
Median SP
Avg $$/sf
Avg DOM
# of Listings 1/1-5/31
2013
362
$943,500
$416/sf
42
2,312
2014
269
$950,000
$465/sf
41
2,243
2015
297
$1,125,000
$492/sf
47
2,333
2016
334
$1,216,250
$498/sf
41
2,477
2017
334
$1,222,500
$517/sf
34
2,265

We had a year-over-year 9% drop in new listings over the first five months of 2017, yet May sales were 10% higher (and late-reporters will add more).

They are selling fast too. The median DOM (days-on-market) was 16 days, which was the same as 2013 when we were in full-tilt boogie mode. Almost half the houses sold are finding their buyer within the first two weeks!

Updated 6/10/17

Posted by on Jun 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Home Sales, Y-T-D

N.A.R. home-sales forecasts are a moving target. In October they guessed 6 million sales for 2017, and in December they said 5.5 million:

LINK

Single-family existing home sales are set to see their best year since 2006, driven by robust job gains and improving household confidence, according to the forecast from the National Association of Realtors.

While existing home sales are increasing, low levels of supply and rising affordability concerns are creating headwinds for sales and threatening the low homeownership rate.

The first quarter came in with the best sales pace for existing homes in a decade; NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects that pace to continue, finishing off 2017 with 5.62 million sales, the best pace since 2006. This would represent an increase of 3.5% from 2016.

And home sales aren’t the only thing predicted to rise. NAR also forecasts an increase of 5% in existing home prices in 2017.

However, starter home shortage continue to plague the housing market and discourage would-be first time homebuyers.

“We have been under the 50-year average of single-family housing starts for 10 years now,” Yun said. “Limited lots, labor shortages, tight construction lending and higher lumber costs are impeding the building industry’s ability to produce more single-family homes.”

“There’s little doubt first-time buyer participation would improve and the homeownership rate would rise if there was simply more inventory,” he said.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The N.A.R. only talks about the annualized sales pace, which is murky. Let’s look at how the actual year-to-date sales compare with previous years:

Detached-home Sales Between Jan 1st and May 15th:

Year
# of SD County Sales
Median SP
# of NSDCC Sales
Median SP
2013
8,980
$425,000
1,136
$891,225
2014
7,699
$485,000
957
$1,009,020
2015
8,304
$510,000
1,066
$1,100,000
2016
7,965
$546,000
984
$1,140,000
2017
7,967
$580,000
1,000
$1,215,000

The 2017 NSDCC sales are tracking 1.6% ahead of last year, and if mortgage rates can hold around the current 4%, we should carry on. It feels like we have a maturing market though, and a general malaise could drift into the equation towards the end of the summer season.

Posted by on May 23, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC Months of Inventory

Market conditions are favorable throughout the NSDCC.  Here are stats on the individual areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
SOLDS – April
Months of Inv. (A/S)
Cardiff
92007
19
11
9
2.1
Carlsbad NW
92008
38
37
18
2.1
Carlsbad SE
92009
75
78
52
1.4
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
33
11
1.4
Carlsbad SW
92011
27
25
26
1.0
Del Mar
92014
69
19
15
4.6
Encinitas
92024
95
56
40
2.4
La Jolla
92037
180
44
29
6.2
RSF
67+91
246
49
27
9.1
Solana Bch
92075
24
16
12
2.0
Carmel Vly
92130
85
82
30
2.8
All Above
All
873
450
269
3.25

It used to be that 6 months of inventory was considered normal. Can we say the new normal is more like 3.0?  Areas that are performing very well are 2.0?  Those on fire are 1.0?

Posted by on May 16, 2017 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Inventory, First Third of Year

So our NSDCC market is cooking….is the amount of inventory to blame?

One-third of 2017 is complete – let’s compare it to recent years:

New Listings Between January-April

Year
New Listings, Jan – Apr
New Listings in April only
2013
1,822
534
2014
1,746
511
2015
1,747
471
2016
1,906
512
2017
1,695
456

Prices are at all-time highs, and FEWER people want to sell??

How can you explain it?  What is different now?

Is it His Orangeness?  The change in president is a notable difference between 2017 and the previous years, but there hasn’t been any specific orders directed at the real estate business, and mortgage rates have stayed about the same.  He could be causing more people to hunker down, but you would think that people would be just as likely to flee!

Potential home sellers know by now what’s in store with Trump.  Not much, if anything, will get done that impacts the real estate selling business.

So what is it?  Why aren’t more people selling at these prices?

It’s because they have nowhere to go that is any better.  The baby-boomers who own most of the coastal real estate have successfully bought one or more personal residences to get to this one, and it will do – it is their trophy property.  Selling a rental property via a 1031 exchange just to avoid taxation isn’t worth the hassle – and how do you do any better than NSDCC?

There are approximately 300,000 people in our market, hopefully we will have at least 1,600 houses to sell during the first four months of every year.

It is the 10% to 20% on the fringe that make the difference.

Some years there are a few extra people who decide to list their house. In 2016 we had 7% more houses listed than the 5-year average. A surge like that can result in more sales, or cause buyers to wait-and-see – it depends on price.

Baby boomers are young enough that they can still manage to live in their long-time residences, but this really should be the peak of the low-inventory era.  Don’t we have to see more boomer-owned properties coming to market as they shuffle off to the retirement home, or the Big McMansion in the sky?

Keep an eye on the fringe – the extra 10% to 20% surges in inventory is where we will see a notable change first!  Until then, expect more of the same!

Posted by on May 8, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 3 comments

NSDCC April Sales

An update on last month’s sales and pricing:

April
Number of Sales
Avg $$/SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2013
303
$420/sf
$955,000
42
16
2014
258
$456/sf
$1,052,500
50
26
2015
278
$473/sf
$1,090,000
47
20
2016
299
$521/sf
$1,129,197
40
19
2017
265
$541/sf
$1,335,035
42
15

The sales count was 225 when we checked on Friday, and we’ll have some more stragglers over the next couple of weeks. There was one less business day last month verses April 2016, so we weren’t too far off.

There were 24 houses that sold for more than $3,000,000, and two that closed over $10,000,000!

Posted by on May 3, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment