Menu
TwitterRssFacebook
Klinge Realty
More Links

Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC May Sales & Pricing

This article shows that 88% of the home sales in San Francisco this year have sold for list price or higher – wow!

In SF, 79% sold over list price

We aren’t quite that hot, but there was some good action last month:

NSDCC Houses Sold Over List Price: 20%

NSDCC Houses Sold At LP: 13%

In May, 33% of the NSDCC detached-home sales close for list price or higher!  For those on range pricing, I used the high-end of the range, and I didn’t include any that were on the ‘auctions’.  Of the 100 houses that sold over $1,500,000, there were eleven that closed above their list price.

But sales are struggling:

Year
# of May Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
362
$416/sf
$943,500
16
2014
269
$465/sf
$950,000
20
2015
297
$492/sf
$1,125,000
22
2016
334
$498/sf
$1,216,250
24
2017
343
$517/sf
$1,220,000
16
2018
269
$593/sf
$1,325,000
18

Prices were way up, but there were 22% fewer sales last month, YoY!

Here are the NSDCC closed sales for January through May:

2013: 1,337

2014: 1,108

2015: 1,213

2016: 1,212

2017: 1,226

2018: 1,113

Year-to-date sales are 9% fewer than last year (through May).

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments

Inventory Watch

Last week we saw that the current inventory ranges from 1.3 months’ worth on the lower-end, to more than 10 months on the high end.

Another gauge we’ve used is to compare the active listings to the pendings, which also shows a similar condition.  It’s been red hot on the lower-end, and not so much on the high end.

In normal markets in the past, the active listings have out-numbered the pendings by a 2:1 ratio.  Today, the mid-ranges look fairly normal:

Price Range
NSDCC Actives
Pendings
Actives/Pendings Ratio
$0-$1M
81
91
0.89 to 1
$1M-$1.5M
199
142
1.4 to 1
$1.5M-$2M
158
83
1.9 to 1
$2M+
502
99
5.1 to 1

Here’s another way to look at it:

More than half (55%) of the active inventory is listed over $2,000,000, and about three-quarters of the pendings (77%) are listed under $2 million!

Read More

Posted by on Jun 11, 2018 in Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales, Preliminary

Now that the market is simmering down, it is more critical than ever that sellers hire the right listing agent.  A failed coming-soon campaign can burn up your initial urgency, and cause showings to die down quickly once the listing finally hits the MLS.

How soft is it?

The pricing statistics are still rising, but sales are stalling.  The NSDCC April sales were down 3% YoY, and May is looking worse so far:

Year
# of May Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
362
$416/sf
$943,500
16
2014
269
$465/sf
$950,000
20
2015
297
$492/sf
$1,125,000
22
2016
334
$498/sf
$1,216,250
24
2017
343
$517/sf
$1,220,000
16
2018
264
$594/sf
$1,325,000
19

Even if I add ten percent more sales to last month’s total for late-reporters, we’re going to be -15% YoY…..during the selling season.

Here are the NSDCC closed sales for January through May:

2013: 1,337

2014: 1,108

2015: 1,213

2016: 1,212

2017: 1,226

2018: 1,106

(today’s count is -10% year-over-year, and it would still be -8% if we add the estimated number of late-reporters to May’s count)

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 4, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Soft Market

The full-blown frenzy we enjoyed in 2013 has been cooling off ever since, and I think we can call today’s market a bit soft.  Home buyers are gradually gaining more power and control of the outcomes, and as we saw yesterday in the Inventory Watch, the unsold homes are starting to pile up.

There are signs of a slowdown everywhere – even on the MDLNY. They squeezed some market truth in at the 1:25-minute mark here:

Though they were talking about swanky NYC property, we have seen our higher-end inventory growing constantly too (today there are 512 NSDCC houses for sale listed over $2,000,000, when there were just 430 two months ago).

But now the lower-end is starting to feel it too.

You won’t see it on the official days-on-market metric of sold properties because those are the listings that dodged the bullet. It will be the rising count of active (unsold) listings that reveal the struggle.

How do you know if a listing agent is feeling it too?

Signs That A Listing Agent Might Know the Market Is Soft:

  1. They’ve Sold A Few Listings in 2018 – Listing agents who are actively engaged know that the market has changed, and that fewer inquiries/offers are the norm.
  2. Their Listings Are Sharp – Listing agent who are aware of a softer market know they must include excellent professional photos and video in their listings, and the listing remarks make you want to go see the home.
  3. Showings Available Immediately – The initial urgency of a new listing dissipates faster than ever, and a good listing agent wants to take advantage – they won’t make you wait days or weeks to see a house.
  4. No Extra Hurdles – We see listings loaded up with extra demands like having to include special forms or procedures just to make an offer.  In a soft market, listing agents should make it easy to buy the home.
  5. Decent Commissions – A softer market is no time to be lowering the buyer’s agent commission – there are too many other homes to show and sell.
  6. Pushing The Product – To keep the urgency higher, a good listing agent is implementing every possible marketing tactic available.  If you see a listing where the agent isn’t making any effort, you know they didn’t get the memo that the market is soft.

Buyers have enough reasons to be concerned about the homebuying experience (higher mortgage rates, rampant fraud and deceit, and significantly higher prices), and they won’t tolerate an ignorant listing agent who doesn’t recognize a shift in market conditions.  It is too easy to wait-and-see now.

Get Good Help!

We’ll explore this topic more in the coming days and weeks!

Posted by on May 22, 2018 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Inventory Watch

Another strong week of new listings (115) but the new pendings (63) didn’t follow along – instead they dropped 20% from the previous week.  As we roll into the Memorial Day weekend, graduation season, and 5% mortgage rates, we might be seeing the peak of the market for 2018.

The higher-end market has been sluggish all along, and now the lower-end inventory is starting to show a bit of a plateau over the last couple of months:

Week
# of Actives Under-$1M
Avg. LP/SF
# of Actives $1M-$1.5M
Avg. LP/SF
Mar 26
61
$477/sf
133
$484/sf
May 21
81
$474/sf
184
$475/sf

Don’t worry sellers – price will fix everything!

Read More

Posted by on May 21, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

NSDCC April Sales

Compared to previous years, the detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad are holding up remarkably well.  With the significant increase in pricing, we can’t expect sales to equal previous Aprils, so 260 is pretty strong:

Year
# of Sales
Avg. Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
303
$420/sf
$955,000
16
2014
258
$456/sf
$1,052,500
26
2015
282
$475/sf
$1,077,500
20
2016
305
$518/sf
$1,120,000
20
2017
277
$536/sf
$1,282,131
15
2018
260
$571/sf
$1,295,000
15

I’m sticking with my prediction of NSDCC 2018 sales dropping 10% YoY.

Here are the sales totals for January through April:

2013: 975

2014: 839

2015: 916

2016: 878

2017: 883

2018: 832 (-6%)

As long as we can keep generating millionaire buyers organically, or import them from a far (mostly retirees), we’ll be fine.

Posted by on May 8, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

We had 138 new listings this week – the highest weekly total in four years!

The month of May tends to be the biggest month of the year for new listings, so buyers can expect plenty of new choices in the coming weeks.

Pricing of the active listings has been fairly steady this year:

Price Range
Avg LP/sf on Jan 1
Avg LP/sf on May 7
Under-$1M
$477/sf
$472/sf
$1M-$1.5M
$532/sf
$495/sf
$1.5M-$2.0M
$612/sf
$618/sf

The MLS stops calculating the data once the listing counts get into the high-400’s. The Over-$2M market has 486 active listings today!

Read More

Posted by on May 7, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Inventory, Jan – Apr

We keep hearing how tight the inventory has been, but it is relative to price.  The Above-$1M market has had a fairly consistent supply – it’s the lower-end inventory count that has been dropping steadily:

NSDCC New Listings Between Jan 1 – April 30th

Year # Listings Below $1M # Listings Above $1M Percentage Above $1M
2014
659
1,087
62%
2015
625
1,179
65%
2016
545
1,428
72%
2017
452
1,324
75%
2018
311
1,359
81%

Now that we’ve come this far, sellers will be reluctant to go back!

Posted by on May 2, 2018 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 2 comments