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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Existing Home Sales, May 2016

existing home sales

The national cheerleaders get excited about every nugget of data, and are happy to jump to conclusions.  Yunnie is finally tip-toeing around the downsizing trend that we see everywhere around here, but he can’t assume that those sellers are buying too:

“The May gain over April signals that the real estate market has maintained strong momentum all spring,” says realtor.com chief economist Jonathan Smoke. “We are now in this year’s peak home buying months, and this pace of sales should produce the gains we have been forecasting that will make 2016 the best year of home sales in a decade.

The biggest challenge to prospective buyers right now is tight supply, which we have seen for 45 consecutive months. In these conditions, home values have strong support, but potential buyers will continue to face challenges finding a home for sale that meets their needs. That is why we’re seeing the age of inventory drop dramatically while prices have gone up 5 percent over the last year and are now at record nominal levels.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales continue to hum along, rising in May for the third consecutive month. “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” he says. “With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now.”

Adds Yun, “Barring further deceleration in job growth that could ultimately temper demand from these repeat buyers, sales have the potential to mostly maintain their current pace through the summer.”

The local NSDCC sales in May built on the momentum from April, and the 2016 three-month total looks very similar to last year (865 vs. 859):

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
299
320
$1,216,250
$500/sf
$419/sf

Save

Save

Posted by on Jun 23, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

We figure a ‘healthy’ market has a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings.  Here is our last look at the actives/pendings ratio, from March 23rd:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
19
11
1.73
$2,449,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
36
26
1.38
$1,285,000
Carlsbad SE
92009
90
70
1.29
$1,189,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
7
23
0.30
$740,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
36
0.94
$1,062,450
Del Mar
92014
69
13
5.31
$2,580,000
Encinitas
92024
92
50
1.84
$1,811,500
La Jolla
92037
187
53
3.53
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
232
32
7.25
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
8
3.00
$1,962,500
Carmel Vly
92130
110
77
1.43
$1,490,000
All Above
All
900
399
2.26
$2,150,000

The market was humming along at the end of March, judging by how many areas have their A/P ratio under 2.0.

Today there are 17% more houses for sale, and 7% more pendings, which seems fairly healthy at a 2.46 ratio overall.  The majority of areas (6 of 11) are under 2.0 too, and to no one’s surprise, they are the cheaper areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
21
9
2.33
$1,650,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
45
23
1.96
$1,206,908
Carlsbad SE
92009
113
69
1.64
$1,250,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
13
18
0.72
$785,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
53
34
1.56
$1,149,000
Del Mar
92014
73
23
3.17
$2,475,000
Encinitas
92024
108
81
1.33
$1,650,000
La Jolla
92037
221
46
4.80
$2,995,000
RSF
92067
247
30
8.23
$3,199,000
Solana Bch
92075
26
9
2.89
$2,472,500
Carmel Vly
92130
132
86
1.53
$1,497,000
All Above
All
1,052
428
2.46
$2,098,500

Take out Rancho Santa Fe and the NSDCC overall ratio is 2.04!

Posted by on Jun 21, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-06-19 11.01.03

The higher-end inventory has been bloated – today we have 468 NSDCC houses for sale over $2,400,000, and 43 have closed escrow in the last 30 days.

But in the next category down, the number of houses for sale has been rising for weeks.  On April 18th, we had 257 active listings priced between $1,400,000 and $2,400,000, and now we have 344 for sale, which is a 34% increase in just two months – and during the selling season!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jun 20, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

How Long Have Sellers Owned 3

The first posting in this series was on December 12 – let’s check in occasionally to see how long recent sellers owned their home before they sold it.

Here is the third review of the NSDCC detached-home sales – these are sales that have closed so far in June, 2016:

Year Purchased
1st Review (12/12/15)
2nd Review (3/19/16)
3rd Review (6/18/16)
1900-1999
34 (27%)
28 (25%)
31 (22%)
2000 – 2003
18 (14%)
19 (17%)
25 (17%)
2004 – 2008
29 (23%)
33 (29%)
34 (24%)
2009 – 2011
19 (15%)
12 (11%)
19 (13%)
2012 – 2016
22 (18%)
21 (18%)
27 (19%)
New Home
3 (2%)
1 (1%)
8 (5%)

Those long-time owners continue to lead the pack, with 49% of sellers having owned their home more than 12 years before selling it this month.

Buyers should be prepared for fixers, and sellers should do what they can to improve their home to sell because nearly half of the sales probably look dated.

Interesting that those who could make the quickest big profits, those who bought in 2009-2001, were the least likely to sell.

More stats:

Other Categories
1st Review (12/12/15)
2nd Review (3/19/16)
3rd Review (6/18/16)
Number of Sales
125
114
144
Avg. $$/sf
$505/sf
$552/sf
$550/sf
Median SP
$1,080,000
$1,129,000
$1,291,500
Avg DOM
60
38
42
Sold in First 10 Days
24%
32%
35%
Lost $$
11
3
7
0 DOM
5
8
7

Pricing is still strong, and buyers are stepping up!

Posted by on Jun 18, 2016 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales

Rates 2016

Low mortgage rates are keeping the party going!

As mortgage rates dipped back into the mid-3s in February, buyers responded. The closed sales in April and May were healthy, and supported by sellers who are being reasonable about price – the cost-per-sf is about the same as last May.

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
May Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median $/sf
2012
238
272
289
$821,000
$380/sf
$311/sf
2013
299
303
362
$943,500
$416/sf
$366/sf
2014
219
258
269
$950,000
$465/sf
$375/sf
2015
294
278
287
$1,125,000
$497/sf
$410/sf
2016
246
300
316
$1,216,250
$497/sf
$415/sf

Flat to slightly-rising prices are the happy compromise for everyone!

Posted by on Jun 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.19.59

Number of NSDCC Houses for Sale:

Year
End of March
End of April
Beg of June
2014
869
951
1,065
2015
830
892
1,000
2016
941
996
1,043

The inventory is increasing, but that has been standard for this time of year. It makes sense – sellers are prone to shoot too high on price, and more of their listings are stacking up.

It’s during the summer months that we figure out which sellers are to find a way to the finish line by getting sharper on price, or just get lucky!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jun 6, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales, First Five Months

hanging on

Let’s compare the NSDCC detached-home sales closed during first five months of the year, and the percentage of million-dollar sales:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan – May

Year
$1M Sales
Total # of Sales
$1M Percentage
Median SP
2002
302
1,568
19%
$610,000
2003
316
1,411
22%
$680,000
2004
593
1,380
43%
$925,000
2005
585
1,244
47%
$969,500
2006
534
1,109
48%
$989,000
2007
549
1,120
49%
$979,950
2008
377
950
40%
$950,000
2009
230
696
33%
$796,000
2010
333
975
34%
$825,000
2011
395
1,030
38%
$847,037
2012
371
1,138
33%
$800,000
2013
562
1,337
42%
$900,000
2014
559
1,108
50%
$1,000,000
2015
687
1,194
58%
$1,130,000
2016
692
1,166
59%
$1,150,000

It’s incredible how total sales have held up in spite of the rapid rise in pricing.

Also note the similar jump in million-dollar sales between 2003-2004 and 2012-2013.  The $1M sales dropped off a little after 2004, but this time they kept going higher – almost 700 million-dollar sales in the last five months!

You can also appreciate why the lower-end is so hot – buyers must feel like they are just hanging on!

Posted by on Jun 5, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales and Pricing, May

In the first four months of this year, the market was a bit lethargic with more new listings and fewer sales than in 2015.

The trend was reversed in May, with fewer new listings but more sales, YoY!

Year
New Listings
Closed Sales
2012
425
289
2013
490
362
2014
497
269
2015
512
287
2016
477
305

All it means is that more participants were able to agree on price for a stretch.

I don’t think buyers are intimidated by the lack of inventory any more – they’ve learned to live with it, and are willing to be patient.  But they have their eye on the calendar too, so there could be a flurry of activity in June as families want to get in and get settled before school starts again.

Posted by on Jun 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC May Sales & Pricing – Prelim.

We’re wrapping up the month of May today, and the spring selling season.  Oh yes, there will still be plenty of blue sky ahead….until there isn’t.

The NSDCC closed sales this month are looking like they will exceed last year’s total for May – which was 287 sales.

There have been 280 closings so far this month, and we should get up to 300 over the next week or two.

Year
No. of Sales
Average Cost-per-SF
Median Sales Price
2013
362
$416/sf
$943,500
2014
269
$465/sf
$950,000
2015
287
$497/sf
$1,459,168
2016
280
$506/sf
$1,252,500

The median sales price is taking a hit this month, and it seems in part due to the lower-middle tier ($800,000-$1,400,000) being red hot lately.  It’s because the $800,000-$1,400,000 range is rapidly becoming the lowest tier!

This chart of pending listings by price range gives us a glimpse of what to expect for sales closing this summer:

Posted by on May 31, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick | 0 comments

First Third of 2016 By Town

updown

We saw how the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad region had experienced more listings between January and April, but fewer sales for the first time since 2006:

LINK

Let’s break it down by area to see the hotspots.

New Listings and Sales Between January and April

(NL = New Listings)

Area
Zip Code
2015 NL
2016 NL
Chg
2015 Sales
2016 Sales
Chg
Cardiff
92007
43
52
+21%
26
24
-16%
Carlsbad NW
92008
105
97
-8%
53
53
0
Carlsbad SE
92009
288
267
-7%
153
128
-20%
Carlsbad NE
92010
66
62
-6%
42
50
+19%
Carlsbad SW
92011
116
143
+23%
63
78
+24%
Del Mar
92014
93
123
+32%
50
54
+8%
Encinitas
92024
240
263
+10%
152
124
-18%
La Jolla
92037
268
283
+6%
123
104
-15%
RSF
92067
199
226
+14%
69
48
-16%
Solana Bch
92075
43
50
+16%
36
30
-17%
Carmel Vly
92130
260
291
+12%
128
154
+20%
All Above
All
1,721
1,857
+8%
895
847
-5%

The areas that have had double-digit increases in new listings, and also had double-digit decreases in year-over-year sales percentages, are struggling a bit (in bold).  Cardiff and Solana Beach have such small sample sizes that their changes aren’t alarming, so it’s Encinitas and Rancho Santa Fe that stand out.

Any with a big decrease in sales are next on the list (SE Carlsbad and La Jolla).

Posted by on May 13, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments