Inventory Watch

Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?

Oops, the pendings count stalled:

NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362

We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?

Want another sign?

At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.

But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.

(more…)

NSDCC Sales, Jan-Apr

The first third of 2019 has been better than expected. Sales are only 6% below the average for the last five years, and the median sales price hasn’t dropped much:

NSDCC Sales, January – April

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
# of Listings
2015
920
$1,130,000
25
1,811
2016
880
$1,124,500
24
1,978
2017
886
$1,200,000
20
1,782
2018
847
$1,316,000
17
1,702
2019
797
$1,300,000
25
1,760

A few more listings this year, but no flood, and limiting sales somewhat just because of the lack of choice. The tight supply keeps everything in check – price swings aren’t as obvious either.

NSDCC April Sales

There are more soundbites about sales and pricing being down overall, but the market for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad is hanging in there.

There was an extra business day this year, and there will be more sales reported over the next few days – if those two balance each other out, we’re only about 5% under last year’s sales count, and the pricing trend is higher:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$-per-sf
Avg. DOM
2016
307
$1,120,000
$518/sf
40
2017
279
$1,282,131
$535/sf
44
2018
272
$1,285,225
$567/sf
40
2019
257
$1,350,000
$585/sf
44

Angelo Mozilo said he never saw a soft landing, but if mortgage rates stay close to 4% and sellers can live with the same price as the last guy got, then this might be the first soft landing in history.

The selling season should hold its own, and it will be the off-season where we could see more dramatic swings due to less volume.

NSDCC Monthly Closed Sales, 2019

The NSDCC closed sales got off to a hot start in 2019!

But by March 4th, pendings had stalled and were 19% under last year’s total.  Now that stall pattern is playing out in the March closings too:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Changes:

Year
2018
2019
% chg
January
151
151
-0-
February
164
174
+6%
March
259
203
-22%

But the recent flurry of activity has us catching up.  The pendings count today is only six behind the count on April 2nd of last year (340 vs 346).

The published March sales counts are going to be disappointing, even if we have a bunch of late-reporters. But the April/May sales should be healthier!

It’s Really Go Time Now!

Mortgage rates have continued their slide, and lenders should be offering fixed-rate loans with rates starting in the threes again, with little or no points!  The new pendings are flowing, but we still haven’t seen a flood of new listings:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales in March

Year
March Listings
Median LP
March Sales
Median SP
2015
497
$1,275,000
298
$1,137,500
2016
532
$1,470,000
252
$1,143,665
2017
505
$1,395,000
258
$1,074,000
2018
446
$1,549,000
259
$1,397,500
2019
396
$1,514,497
153
$1,320,000

The latest numbers are month-to-date, and will increase considerably with four business days to go.  But the March sales will end up well under last year’s count, though the lower rates should help boost sales in April and May.

There are threes on the street:

For those who want to prepare for making an offer and would like to review our contracts, the California Association of Realtors have made available a sample copy with explanations:

https://www.car.org/riskmanagement/Consumer-RPA

Don’t be surprised if it’s a little clunky.

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

It’s March! How are we doing?

We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of active-to-pending listings to be a sign of a healthy market. Though pricing is much higher than in the recent past, we’re under 3.0 is all but the highest-end areas:

Here are the Actives/Pendings stats for each area:

Area
Zip
ACTIVES
PENDINGS
ACT/PEND
SOLDS Last 30 days
Cardiff
92007
21
11
1.9
3
Carlsbad NW
92008
42
15
2.8
12
Carlsbad SE
92009
72
38
1.9
29
Carlsbad NE
92010
25
11
2.3
12
Carlsbad SW
92011
41
27
1.5
18
Del Mar
92014
78
18
4.3
9
Encinitas
92024
74
43
1.7
23
La Jolla
92037
171
32
5.3
18
RSF
67+91
179
23
7.8
8
Solana Bch
92075
25
6
4.2
5
Carmel Vly
92130
80
37
2.2
31
All Above
All
808
261
3.1
168

The first half of 2018 was very active, so just to stay close would be a win.

Sales in January caught up with last year’s count, and the year-over-year February sales are stronger than expected too – we had MORE sales in 2019! (updated later on March 1st)

NSDCC Closed Sales:

Year
January
February
Median SP YTD
Avg $$/sf YTD
2018
150
164
$1,294,005
$573/sf
2019
150
165
$1,275,000
$540/sf

Pricing is soft, but close enough for now.

NSDCC 2019 Sales

Yesterday, the C.A.R. released the statewide January results, with more speculation from our so-called leaders:

 California home sales fall to lowest level in more than 10 years

– Existing, single-family home sales totaled 357,730 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 3.9 percent from December and down 12.6 percent from January 2018.

– January’s statewide median home price was $538,690, down 3.4 percent from December and up 2.1 percent from January 2018.

– Statewide active listings rose for the 10th straight month, increasing 27 percent from the previous year.

– The statewide Unsold Inventory Index was 4.6 months in January, up from 3.5 months in December.

“California continued to move toward a more balanced market as we see buyers having greater negotiating power and sellers making concessions to get their homes sold as inventory grows,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “While interest rates have dropped down to the lowest point in 10 months, potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold as they wait out further price adjustments.”

The statewide median home price declined to $538,690 in January. The January statewide median price was down 3.4 percent from $557,600 in December and up 2.1 percent from a revised $527,780 in January 2018.

“While we expected the federal government shutdown during most of January to temporarily interrupt closings because of a delay in loan approvals and income verifications, the impact on January’s home sales was minimal,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The decline in sales was more indicative of demand side issues and was broad and across all price categories and regions of the state. Moreover, growing inventory over the past few months has not translated into more sales.”

Link to press release  

Obviously, they haven’t done a survey of the North San Diego County’s coastal region!  Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, we had about the same number of January sales last month as we did in January, 2018, so we’re faring much better than the -12.6% statewide.  We are further into February so let’s pick up the sales from the first half, and break it down by price category too:

NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales, Jan 1 to Feb. 15th

Price Range
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
PEND
ACT
Under $1M
129
96
107
93
71
65
76
64
$1M to $1.5M
62
71
82
88
77
91
87
163
$1.5 to $2.0M
29
33
24
41
36
34
50
126
Over $2.0M
46
50
43
41
51
52
60
453
Totals
266
250
256
263
235
242
273
806

The only two signs of trouble:

  1. The Under-$1M market is disappearing.
  2. If you want to buy a house priced over $2,000,000, you sure have plenty to consider!  Those sellers are happy to wait it out too, so no rush.

Other than those, we have remarkable balance, and it doesn’t look like ‘potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold’ around here!

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