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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!

Jim Klinge
Cell/Text: (858) 997-3801
klingerealty@gmail.com
701 Palomar Airport Road, Suite 300
Carlsbad, CA 92011


Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Annual Sales and Pricing

Let’s look closer at the individual neighborhoods, and compare annual sales and pricing between 2016 and 2017:

Town
Zip Code
2016 Sales
Avg $$/sf
Med SP
2017 Sales
Avg $$/sf
Med SP
Cardiff
92007
82
$711
$1,407,500
76
$711
$1,300,000
NW C-bad
92008
220
$465
$897,400
189
$429
$875,000
SE C-bad
92009
498
$343
$900,000
531
$363
$981,000
NE C-bad
92010
162
$343
$731,250
168
$367
$804,402
SW C-bad
92011
280
$393
$935,000
275
$413
$999,000
Crml Vly
92130
540
$409
$1,144,500
486
$441
$1,218,400
Del Mar
92014
162
$966
$1,787,500
163
$814
$1,800,000
Encinitas
92024
499
$530
$1,185,000
446
$568
$1,212,250
La Jolla
92037
354
$829
$1,918,250
328
$846
$2,172,500
RSF
67+91
251
$512
$2,272,500
284
$494
$2,240,000
Solana B
92075
86
$708
$1,310,000
98
$786
$1,500,000
NSDCC
All Above
3,103
$1,160,000
3,075
$1,225,000
SanMarcosSo.
92078
529
$291
$679,000
530
$316
$730,000
PB/MB
92109
226
$673
$1,082,500
225
$755
$1,195,000
West RB
92127
561
$343
$900,000
615
$366
$1,050,000
East RB
92128
533
$347
$660,000
513
$371
$725,000
RP
92129
450
$338
$720,000
374
$380
$759,500
Scripps R
92131
333
$340
$830,000
320
$367
$910,000

The velocity is slowing a bit from previous years. Of the 17 areas:

  1. Ten had fewer sales in 2017.
  2. Three had a lower cost-per-sf in 2017.
  3. Three had a lower median sales price in 2017.

Rancho Santa Fe had the cost-per-sf and median sales price dip slightly, but the annual sales were up 13%. NW Carlsbad had sales, cost-per-sf, and median SP all go down.

The current market conditions are very positive, especially on the lower-end of North San Diego County’s coastal region.

Of the houses listed under $1,500,000, there are 151 actives and 167 pendings, which is fantastic. The market of houses listed over $1,500,000 is more sluggish, with 493 actives and 102 pendings.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Feb 6, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Rising Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have risen almost one-half percent this year, and are around 4.50% with no points today (conforming and jumbo).  Because rates haven’t moved much in recent years, the half-point increase sounds dramatic, and could cause a few people to reach for the panic button.

But there’s no need to panic.

During the Frenzy of 2013, rates went up higher in less than half the time of the current increase:

But home prices didn’t back off – instead, our NSDCC median sales price has risen 40% since July, 2013!

But aren’t we closer to a new market peak now, and higher rates will just be the beginning of the end?  After all, the last two readings of the SD Case-Shiller have declined month-over-month, and those are calculating county-wide sales that are generally lower priced than NSDCC.

While the higher-rates/higher-prices/tax reform/insert-your-favorite-doom will likely cause nervous buyers to pause, the market has always been made by the buyers with less caution and more horsepower.

They might be more selective going forward, which means only the cream-puffs will be selling for retail, or retail-plus – the inventory of those is too tight, and the competition will drive the sales price.

It’s the sellers of homes that are lingering unsold who might want to sharpen their pencil on their list price.  Once you’ve been on the market and not selling for 2-3 months, do you really need to keep pressing for that extra 5% to 10% on top of what the last guy got – and risk not selling at all?

If higher rates do become an issue, it is a problem that is easy to fix, unlike tax reform or higher prices.

Buyers can either opt for a 5-year or 7-year fixed rate to stay under 4%, or ask the seller to buy down the rate.  Sellers who are getting a 5% premium over last year’s prices shouldn’t mind paying 1% or 2% to make the deal.

Posted by on Feb 5, 2018 in Frenzy, Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC December Sales

Hard to get too concerned about a 10% drop in sales YoY, when inventory was down more than that, and the rest of the stats held up nicely:

NSDCC December Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Avg. Cost Per SF
Median SP
Avg Days on Market
2013
211
$485/sf
$1,075,000
60
2014
250
$482/sf
$1,052,075
61
2015
258
$477/sf
$1,094,500
56
2016
240
$502/sf
$1,150,000
55
2017
217
$563/sf
$1,205,000
46

It looks similar to when the frenzy died down in 2013 – not due to lack of demand (as we’ve seen since), but because the cupboards were bare.

Posted by on Jan 10, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Slow Start in 2018?

During our recent frenzied market conditions, getting a good price has taken a back seat to winning the bidding war.

Our SD Case-Shiller Index reflects it – the trend has been very positive:

But the most-recent Case-Shiller reading for San Diego was flat – the steady gains we’ve had every month of 2017 came to a abrupt halt. Just an anomoly?

Our 2017 market was similar to the Frenzy of 2013 – we called it ‘frenzy-lite’. After the frenzy topped off in September 2013, prices were flat for 4-5 months.

True, once we got into the spring selling season of 2014, prices resumed their ascent, and the SD Case-Shiller Index has risen 25% since!

What can we expect now?

A. Sellers and agents have heard that inventory is as low as ever, and can’t resist adding a little extra mustard to their list price, just in case.

B. Buyers have heard that the tax reform will cost them more, and possibly cause prices to go down. They will hesitate to pay more – especially for those homes that need work. After looking this long, it’s too easy to wait-and-see for a few more months.

C. The NSDCC inventory today is about 20% lower than it was last year…..and boy, is it picked over. The sales counts for January are going to be disappointing, unless we get a surge of new listings.

D. Pricing momentum is fueled by sales. Fewer sales = less pricing pressure because of the lack of comps.

Somebody has to go first. Who will be setting the market in early-2018?

  1. Frustrated buyers who just want to get a house.
  2. Affluent people who don’t own here yet.
  3. Those who sold recently and are re-investing their windfall.
  4. Those who have grandkids here.

These are the people who will keep paying whatever it takes – to them, a house is more valuable than +/- a few bucks.  They’re not very price sensitive.

We’ll be fine by March/April – as long as there are decent houses for sale!

Posted by on Jan 2, 2018 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Why You Should List With Jim | 2 comments

NSDCC 2018 Inventory

There are other variables, but the amount and quality of the inventory will determine our fate in 2018.  Even with our Sandicor MLS logging duplicate listings, our count of houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad dropped about 10% this year!

It wouldn’t matter if we cut back on the number of higher-end listings – there would still be plenty to go around.  Where did the shortage happen this year?

Year
# of Listings Under $1M
# of Listings Over $2M
Total # of Listings
2013
2,141
1,047
4,818
2014
1,886
1,063
4,692
2015
1,819
1,257
5,068
2016
1,524
1,441
5,169
2017
1,161
1,433
4,598

The number of high-enders were remarkably about the same as last year – the shortage this year was almost entirely on the lower end.

Today, there are only 41 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000. There will be more, but I think we can expect the number of sellers willing to take less than a million to drop even further in 2018 – less than 1,000 for sure, and possibly as low as 700-800 listings.

There were 882 NSDCC houses sold this year under $1,000,000 (so far). We could still have close to that many sell again in 2018 if the frenzy picks up on the cheapies and virtually every listing sells.

Posted by on Dec 28, 2017 in Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 4 comments

Zillow 2018 Forecast

For those who are putting the finishing touches on their own 2018 forecast, here’s how close the Zillow Group guesses have been:

Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts

Town
2015 Forecast
Actual
2016 Forecast
Actual
2017 Forecast
Actual
2018 Forecast
Carlsbad
+2.7%
+4.8%
+1.9%
+3.8%
+1.3%
+6.1%
+3.5%
Carmel Valley
+0.3%
+5.4%
+1.4%
+1.9%
+0.9%
+12.1%
+5.2%
Del Mar
+5.5%
+1.1%
+1.4%
+2.6%
+1.1%
+0.3%
+3.2%
Encinitas
+0.6%
+8.3%
+2.4%
+6.3%
+2.2%
+9.7%
+4.3%
La Jolla
+2.7%
+6.6%
+2.3%
+6.1%
+2.1%
+7.0%
+3.9%
RSF
+0.4%
+11.1%
+3.7%
-0.5%
+1.9%
+4.1%
+2.9%
San Diego
+1.7%
+6.4%
+2.1%
+4.0%
+1.7%
+8.6%
+4.2%
Solana Beach
+2.7%
+6.4%
+2.2%
+2.6%
+1.4%
+8.3%
+3.6%

Their guesses have been conservative, and for their 2018 forecasts, they pretty much just halved the appreciation gained in 2017.

The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.

Posted by on Dec 27, 2017 in Forecasts, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Zillow | 2 comments

2018 Predictions

JtR Predictions

2016

I guessed we would see 2016 sales drop by 5%.

Instead, they went up 3%, and the median SP went up 6%!

2017

I guessed that we’d have 3,100 sales in 2017, and the median sales price would be $1,200,000. How’s that is turning out?

Year
NSDCC Annual Sales
Median Sales Price
2012
3,154
$830,000
2013
3,218
$952,250
2014
2,849
$1,025,000
2015
3,011
$1,095,000
2016
3,103
$1,160,000
2017
3,016 (today)
$1,225,000

The number of 2017 sales should wind up being higher than last year, and also the highest count since the Frenzy of 2013 – and that’s with a median sales price that is 29% higher than in 2013!

2018

I guessed earlier that NSDCC detached-home sales will drop 5% in 2018 – but that would still give us around 3,000 houses sold, which is a healthy amount, given that rates and prices are both expected to be higher.  The median sales price, full of imperfections, should keep rising, and I’ll guess +5% in 2018.

Those same factors, plus a few more boomer liquidations, could also create a bull rush frenzy, with intense wrangling for decently-priced houses listed under $1,500,000.  With more inventory, we could approach 3,200 sales again.

The higher-end market is challenging too, but in the opposite direction.  Today there are 374 NSDCC houses for sale listed over $2,000,000, and we sold about 50 per month in 2017.

2018 Predictions By Readers:

Rob Dawg:

High end volume and price stagnant.

Median rises 8% because every low priced property disappears sold or doesn’t sell. Median rises 8% because median properties are going to be owner improved in order to command a higher price. Total volume however will drop 10% for the same reasons.

It is almost as if financial events have been financialized. No room for small fish in the real estate ocean.

The next stock market event doesn’t lower prices only freezes activity.

Makes me so mad I want to drive a minivan into a swimming pool.

franklin Jones:

My guess, home sales remain -2% due to a lack of inventory in the low end coupled by price increase in that sector. With a median sales price up 5.5% for 2018.

The lower end property will be very competitive. Lets take Encinitas, don’t think you are gonna find a SFR that is decent for under 800K anymore, next will be South Carlsbad which will be under 700K…that is coming. Good time to buy anything over 1.5 mil especially Cardiff and Rancho Santa Fe…good value for the money considering what new homes are going for, we are talking 800K for new San Marcos and up with any kind of a view. that city has really come up in the last five years.

I think for a second house, or rental you cannot go wrong with the beach areas, yea the price, but I think no matter what happens in the future people will always want to live at or near the beach and I don’t see rents tanking anytime soon. Interest rates are gonna up…3.6 to 4.0 this year, next I see towards the end of the year 4.5…in terms of interest that is a 12% increase in interest payments in terms of whole dollars…Lock it in now..while the money is still very cheap. 5years from now when we are at norm…which is 6.5% or more than 50% more interest if you consider 4% or thereabouts. We will see price fluctuation but at these rates lock and load at either 15 years or 30 years..

What do you think?

Posted by on Dec 27, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 2 comments

NSDCC November Sales

Much like in the last presidential election cycle of 2012, the November, 2016 sales were high, and led to a frenzied selling season the following spring (we had 4% more NSDCC sales in 1H17 than in 1H16).  But sales were solid last month too, which hopefully means Spring 2018 will be lively.

NSDCC November Sales

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
2012
241
$415/sf
$855,000
52
2013
187
$474/sf
$1,030,000
38
2014
173
$489/sf
$985,000
34
2015
193
$520/sf
$1,187,000
37
2016
238
$535/sf
$1,247,500
28
2017
209
$527/sf
$1,200,000
27

This is only one-month’s worth of data, but these stats suggest that pricing may have topped off, and we’re finding an equilibrium.  The average $$/sf and median sales price from last month are closer to those from 2015 than 2016.

It’s interesting that the median days-on-market is almost half of what it was five years ago!  There’s not much hesitation in buyers these days.

Posted by on Dec 12, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Cash Sales

For those who might have seen this article and worried about competing with cash buyers, there hasn’t been much difference around here lately.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Nov

Year
Number of Cash Sales
Percentage of Total Sales, Jan – Nov
2013
754
25%
2014
674
26%
2015
719
25%
2016
729
25%
2017
709
25%

An excerpt:

Meagan Freeman and her boyfriend have been looking for a midprice house in the Seattle area for six months but keep running into a hurdle: cash buyers swooping in and snatching up their properties.

It has happened three times, she said, most recently two weeks ago. The couple bid on a home in an unfashionable suburb they believed was a sure bet in the midst of a dreary Seattle November, when the market typically is slow.

Instead, the 27-year old said, a cash buyer won out yet again.

“It is definitely discouraging,” she said.

Five years after the housing market hit rock bottom, mortgage credit is finally returning to the healthy levels of the early 2000s, before the boom-bust cycle began. But all-cash deals remain well above normal levels, even as prices in many markets have pushed to record highs.

In all, 28.8% of U.S. home sales this year have been all-cash transactions, according to Attom Data Solutions, a data provider. That was down from the peak of more than 40% in 2011 and 2012, when investors were buying homes at a furious pace to turn into rentals. But the percentage of cash deals stands much higher than the 20% or so common in the early 2000s, and it has edged up from 28.6% last year, according to Attom.

Read full article here:

LINK

Posted by on Dec 6, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

San Diego Pendings Count

I’m not sure how the C.A.R prognosticators can look at these Y-o-Y numbers and still forecast higher sales for next year – unless they think the supply will inflate with thousands of desperate realtors having to sell their own homes?

LINK

The North County Coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad) is doing well, considering that December begins tomorrow – only a 17% drop since summer:

August 22nd: 373 pendings, 194 at 20+ days on market

November 30th: 309 pendings, 196 at 20+ days on market

There is no telling how many homes will come to market next year, or if there will be buyers willing to pay the usual Comps+5% pricing.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Nov 30, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 1 comment