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This youtube video shines the spotlight on Carlsbad’s La Costa Oaks development, one of the four villages subdivided by Morrow Development (La Costa Valley, La Costa Greens, and La Costa Ridge are the others). As with other tracts sold at the peak, there is plenty of noise in the data, challenging buyers to make sense of it.

Southeast Carlsbad’s 92009 zip code is physically about the same size as Carmel Valley’s 92130; 20.2 sq. mi. to 19.7 sq. miles. But 92009 has about 66% more homes than CV, so the foreclosure stats showing them having twice as many NODs and NOTs isn’t that drastic (the stats in video says “Carlsbad”, but they are just the 92009 foreclosure numbers):

Here is the link to Dale Naegle’s website, with the story and photos during construction: http://www.dalenaeglearchitect.com/Site/Pavilion_Story.html

In 1960 Sam Bell heir to General Mills (Bell Potato Chips) purchased a summer home with a spectacular view of the Pacific Ocean.  His property extended down a 300 foot cliff to the mean high tide line of the surf below.  His beach is isolated 4 miles from public access to the North, and is accessible only at low tide through rugged, slippery rocks from the south, and remains unused and out of sight. Only surfers 100 yards away can see the mushroom shape of the guest retreat.

You can also see it from above in murph’s paragliding video:

Paragliding at Torrey Pines from mike murphy on Vimeo.

tj and the bear asked about the million-dollar-plus market history in North San Diego County Coastal:

Obviously, the 2010 numbers are year-to-date. There are 137 pendings currently, so we might reach last year’s total of 742 sales, and get about 5% more house at an improved price-per-sf of 14% if these stats stay the same.

Note the pause in sales in 2001, when historically the market should have begun to taper off in a typical 10-year real estate cycle. But mortgage lenders, in particular Countrywide, started pushing the short-term, interest-only mortgages in 2001, and then the neg-ams in 2003. You know how the rest of the story unfolded.

Let’s also note that in 1996 you got a real mansion for a million dollars. There wasn’t a sale over $1,000,000 in 92130 until there was just one in 1998, here’s how other areas have fared since then:

The 1998 sale in 92130? It was new construction in RSF Farms. The seller bought the lot in 1997 for $292,000, built the 4,427sf house and sold it exactly 10 months later for $1,049,000. The agent didn’t put the listing on the MLS for four months, then marked it sold after 2 days, and represented both parties. The house resold 26 months later in 2000 for $1,830,000, a profit of 74%. Those buyers still own the house, and have refinanced four times since. What a country!

An example of a buyer who took a lowball shot at a listing that had some tell-tale signs:

1.  A number of other active listings nearby that weren’t selling,

2.  Out-of-town REO listing agent,

3.  A World Savings/Wachovia/Wells Fargo original loan amount of $687,000,

4. A newer tract house that was unattractive enough that it probably wasn’t getting any offers.

At 7am this morning the NAR existing-home sales data for July is due out, and everyone expects a bloodbath.  Pundits will be guaranteeing the double dip, and calling for home prices to plunge throughout the land. There will also be remarks about how the tax credit pulled demand forward.

The NAR number is measuring the national drop in sales between June and July, but everyone has been saying for weeks how the tax credit was responsible, so how much does today’s number really mean?

To get a better read on the local market action – and to smooth out the noise – let’s compare the year-over-year change in the number of detached and attached sales, and avg. cost per sf for the two-month, June/July period in each area:

The sky might not be falling just yet, especially in North SD County Coastal, where the Y-O-Y numbers look pretty similar. There is only two areas, Del Mar and Solana Beach, where both sales and pricing were negative, Y-O-Y. But hopefully the sellers are just gleaning the headlines today!

The other day we sampled a few recent home sales in Carmel Valley, 92130. 

Some wondered, “why does CV seem to be beating the odds?”  Besides the top-notch schools, another reason is because it’s the only place in North SD County Coastal where there are loads of newer houses.  Most home buyers are not experienced in home repair or improvements, and they get the impression that a newer CV tract house would be the best way to avoid a “money pit”.  Home sellers in general would be smart to take a page from the CV playbook, and dial in their house before putting it on the market – today’s buyers are picky and are holding out for the gems.

In particular, the affluent buyers want it all, and it appears that 92130 is a primary destination for those with money.  Here are the tax-roll stats on the SFR sales between June 1 and August 17th:

But there are cheaper homes in CV, how does 92130 stack up with the other high-end areas? Here are the number of SFRs that closed over $1 million between June 1 and August 17th:

Carmel Valley nudged out La Jolla and Solana Beach (which includes Fairbanks Ranch and the Crosby) to have the most sales over $1,000,000 this summer so far. Next we’ll look at the recent down payments used to purchase these houses in the CV!

Hat tip to clearfund for sending this from cnbc -it mentions the TERI house in Bressi Ranch:

They’ve been called McMansions, Starter Castles, Garage Mahals and Faux Chateaus but here’s the latest thing you can call them — History.

In the past few years, there have been an increasing number of references made to the “McMansion glut” and the “McMansion backlash,” as more towns pass ordinances against garishly large homes, which are generally over 3,000 square feet and built very close together.

What sets a McMansion apart from a regular mansion, according to Wikipedia, are a few characteristics: They’re tacky, they lack a definitive style and they have a “displeasingly jumbled appearance.”  (Wiki says the word McMansion first appeared in the SD Union-Tribune in 1990)

Well, count 2010 as the year the last nail was hammered into the McCoffin: In its latest report on home-buying trends, real-estate site Trulia declares: “The McMansion Era Is Over.”

Just 9 percent of the people surveyed by Trulia said their ideal home size was over 3,200 square feet. Meanwhile, more than one-third said their ideal size was under 2,000 feet. 

“That’s something that would’ve been unbelievable just a few years back,” said Pete Flint, CEO and co-founder of Trulia. “Americans are moving away from McMansions.”

Read the rest of this entry »

The former Barratt project called Nantucket in Leucadia that was foreclosed by Bank of America, has been resold.  Not sure if that means it’s over, or just beginning, but here’s a video review:

The psycho-babble was flying today. 

First it was McMillin talking the party line like an NAR booster in an article in the U-T, saying it is a great time to buy or sell. 

Then HW features more ivory-tower guys talking about the market, entitling the article: Homebuyer Demand All But a ‘Standstill’, but I couldn’t find where they actually used the word standstill in the text.  Everyone speaking with great certainty as if they know what’s actually happening, and the MSM soaking it up like it’s factual - with editors applying liberal interpretations to sex up the effect.

Here’s a view from street-level: