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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC January New Listings

2016-01-13 16.36.09

The North San Diego County coastal region is an affluent area – just ask the home sellers, who are added a little extra mustard to their pricing in January:

NSDCC January New Listings

Year
# of New Listings
# Listed Over $1.5 Million
Median List Price
2012
409
110
$975,000
2013
410
147
$1,137,500
2014
413
167
$1,295,000
2015
388
158
$1,347,500
2016
435
220
$1,500,000

Eventually prices will get high enough that more sellers are lured into the marketplace.  Based on the higher count in January, this might be the year!

Today, there are 552 homes listed for sale that are priced over $1,500,000, and we sold an average of 71 per month last year. We have 7.8 months of supply, and we’re just getting started!

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Feb 5, 2016 in North County Coastal | 1 comment

NSDCC January Sales & Pricing

Feb rates
January house sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad look pretty good, given the higher pricing and TRID fumbling.

Our good luck with sales should continue – rates are lower this month, plus February actually has one more business day than January, thanks to leap year!

NSDCC January Sales and Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg Cost-per-sf
Median SP
Days on Market
2012
155
$374/sf
$760,000
108
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,072,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
160
$555/sf
$1,077,500
52

I wouldn’t worry too much about the median sales price being lower, because the monthly comparisons have smaller sample sizes and more easily affected by the different mix of houses. The number of sales will probably catch last year’s count once the late-reporters are done, and the brisk 52 DOM is really cooking, given the higher pricing.

Posted by on Feb 4, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

KR logo

We have been measuring the ‘health’ of a market by comparing the actives to pending listings, and figured that a 2:1 ratio was about right.  You can click on the ‘Actives/Pendings’ button below (next to date) to see the history.

But it looks like the day has come – that you have to spend at least a million dollars to buy a decent house near the coast:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Posted by on Feb 1, 2016 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 3 comments

NSDCC 2016 New Listings

box

How are we getting out of the box in 2016?

The listings count is on the rise, combined with a relentless push on prices!

Buyers look like they want to go in the other direction, price-wise, but the 93 solds is a great sign that sellers and buyers are finding a way to come together!

It should be an exciting spring!

Year
New Listings, Jan 1-15
Median LP
Solds, Jan 1-15
Median SP
2011
256
$1,027,500
68
$905,000
2012
207
$929,000
69
$770,000
2013
207
$1,099,000
80
$827,495
2014
193
$1,385,000
84
$1,150,00
2015
199
$1,365,000
80
$1,211,690
2016
219
$1,500,000
93
$1,100,000

Posted by on Jan 22, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

JtR on the Radio

jim and kayla

I was invited to participate on Eran Sinai’s radio show today.

These shows go quickly so we agreed to limit the discussion to our local market, expectations for 2016, and how to select a good agent.

I mentioned during the break that it’s a good thing that the blog keeps me limited to 500 words or so, because I could ramble for hours!

Posted by on Jan 20, 2016 in About the author, Blog Talk Radio, Boomer Liquidations, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

Inventory Watch

The number of NSDCC houses for sale priced under $800,000 is down to fifty (50), which is the lowest amount since we started counting just over two years ago.  There should be quite a scramble for the quality homes available, and the definition of quality is probably deteriorating by the minute!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 18, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Annual Sales/MSP

la jolla 030

The 2015 annual sales and median SPs looked pretty good – we know that declining sales are the precursor of a downturn, but only Carmel Valley has a noticeable drop.

There are more new homes for sale than ever in Carmel Valley, and those aren’t all reported as closed sales on the MLS.  They have to be soaking up some of the demand for resales:

Annual Number of Sales/Median Sales Price

Town or Area
Zip Code
2013
2014
2015
Cardiff
92007
88/$961,250
80/$1,180,000
83/$1,200,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
211/$680,000
213/$740,000
196/$767,777
Carlsbad SE
92009
586/$782,125
525/$825,000
576/$875,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
144/$596,000
132/$650,000
161/$662,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
261/$789,900
209/$850,000
240/$887,500
Carmel Vly
92130
515/$1,015,000
470/$1,090,000
452/$1,150,000
Del Mar
92014
188/$1,495,645
193/$1,625,000
161/$1,680,000
Encinitas
92024
466/$870,000
405/$955,000
462/$1,082,500
La Jolla
92037
365/$1,598,000
321/$1,640,000
372/$1,807,500
RSF
92067
240/$2,300,000
181/$2,476,596
196/$2,500,000
Solana Bch
92075
114/$1,100,000
82/$1,326,000
87/$1,440,000
All NSDCC
All
3,218/$952,250
2,849/$1,025,000
3,017/$1,095,000

The reason I think we’ll have fewer sales in 2016 is because 2015 was so dang good – it will be hard to keep up!

Posted by on Jan 14, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

NSDCC 4th Qtr. Sales & Pricing

The fourth quarter of 2015 didn’t show any surprises – sales and pricing are rumbling along.  Del Mar had a statistical pricing slump, but if you look at the median cost-per-sf ($601/sf, $627/sf, $617/sf), it helps to smooth out the bumps in a super-custom area:

Number of Sales/Avg Cost-per-SF

Town or Area
Zip Code
2013
2014
2015
Cardiff
92007
24/$627
24/$563
23/$650
Carlsbad NW
92008
56/$375
62/$402
48/$450
Carlsbad SE
92009
109/$307
122/$316
112/$326
Carlsbad NE
92010
32/$297
29/$294
39/$341
Carlsbad SW
92011
44/$342
43/$346
47/$362
Carmel Vly
92130
91/$381
103/$397
100/$417
Del Mar
92014
39/$922
43/$846
35/$772
Encinitas
92024
87/$488
95/$494
86/$458
La Jolla
92037
95/$760
73/$705
92/$789
RSF
92067
53/$475
42/$501
45/$457
Solana Bch
92075
27/$513
22/$791
14/$635

Statistically, these markets look fine.

Posted by on Jan 8, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC Sales in 2016

ratess

There will still be late-reporters, but let’s review the annual NSDCC sales.

Year
NSDCC Annual Sales
Median Sales Price
2012
3,154
$830,000
2013
3,218
$952,250
2014
2,849
$1,025,000
2015
3,011
$1,095,000

What can we expect for sales this year?

Rates have dropped back under 4% this week, which will help.  But sellers will be expecting higher prices in 2016, which will dampen the buyers’ enthusiasm.

My guess for 2016?

Rates at or below 4% = 5% fewer sales.

Rates above 4% = 10% fewer sales.

If rates get into the mid-4s, then my guess is for 25% fewer sales.

The lack of quality inventory will contribute greatly too.  Buyers don’t mind paying a little more if they get something extra for it.

But we need to become accustomed to a regurgitated inventory.

It’s likely that we will continue to see sellers try to get their inflated price year after year, rather than lowering the price until it sells.  Of the 88 new NSDCC listings this year, 61% of them were on the market in 4Q15.  It is a higher-end phenomena too – virtually all listings over $2,000,000 were refreshed.

Posted by on Jan 7, 2016 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

2015 Wrap Up

CSISD

This year will be over in hours!

How did we do?

The San Diego Case-Shiller Index is 6.2% higher than it was 12 months ago (October to October readings), which beats just about everyone’s expectations.

But the tony north-coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad) had already experienced healthy price gains since 2012.  At the beginning of 2015, lower mortgage rates (3.5% to 3.75%) fueled a surge of sales at higher pricing, but then things mellowed out the rest of the year – just like Rob Dawg predicted!

graph(1)

graph(2)

If it weren’t for the blip in November, it would be clear that the first quarter of 2015 was the best time to sell, price-wise.  If we do get more inventory this year, the same will probably be true – more houses for sale combined with higher mortgage rates = more of a buyer’s market.

Posted by on Dec 31, 2015 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments