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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC January Sales

Above: South Carlsbad in 1972. Below: How it looks now, with a multi-use hotel complex coming someday to the remaining dirt at bottom (hat tip THB!):

Almost all of the late-reporters have marked their January sales closed by now.  Here is last month’s tally for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
162
$519/sf
$1,178,390
55

This is an area of 300,000+ people – as different neighborhoods get hot, prices are going to bounce around. Keep an eye of the number of sales; that’s where you would see a shift in buyer temperament.

Note: Most of these buyers knew Trump was going to be president when they made their decision to buy. From now on, our market stats should be reflecting the accurate Trump Effect, if any.

Posted by on Feb 11, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 3 comments

NSDCC Inventory Breakdown

Number of Houses For Sale by Price Range

There are 751 houses for sale today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and we should be adding 100 or so per week for the next couple of months.

If you are hoping to buy on the lower end, you have an intense experience awaiting you!  There are only 95 houses for sale under $1,000,000, and 67 of those are in Carlsbad.  Find a way to spend more money, or enjoy everything Carlsbad has to offer – it’s a great town!

Rancho Santa Fe always seems to have a couple of hundred homes for sale – today’s count is 196, which makes up 26% of the total.  La Jolla has another 152 for sale, and the two areas together make up almost half of the inventory.

Get Good Help!

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Posted by on Feb 5, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

More Spring Selling Season Preview

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!

NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71
Feb 4, 2017
758
309
2.45

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:

February 1, 2016

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season!  Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!

February 4, 2017

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
7
1.86
$1,595,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
32
18
1.78
$1,146,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
70
51
1.37
$1,169,500
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
15
1.00
$859,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
31
20
1.55
$1,159,000
Del Mar
92014
54
17
3.18
$2,849,500
Encinitas
92024
74
37
2.00
$1,772,500
La Jolla
92037
151
35
4.31
$3,295,000
RSF
92067
194
43
4.51
$3,330,500
Solana Bch
92075
20
5
4.00
$2,075,000
Carmel Vly
92130
64
55
1.16
$1,731,250
All Above
All
758
309
2.45
$2,435,990

Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC January Sales

Yesterday we saw that the number of new NSDCC listings this month was well under previous Januarys, which could impact sales.  When sales go down, we usually think it’s a precursor to prices falling, but sales could decline just because there aren’t enough houses to sell.

Can we make assumptions about who is selling, and who isn’t?

It is easy to not sell, and stay on the sidelines. You can avoid spending big money on home improvements, closing costs, and new furniture, and you don’t have to sort through your junk, which is a big plus.

It has to mean that the lower-motivated, casual sellers are the ones who aren’t listing their houses for sale, which is great.  It is better for everyone in the market to only have to deal with those who really want and need to sell.

What it should mean is that sales will keep up.

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
140 (so far)
$537/sf
$1,197,500
53

Last year we had 14 sales on the last business day of the month, and if we add another 10% for late-reporters, we are going to surpass the 168 sales we had last January. This is the first group of buyers to be hit by the abrupt rate increase, and yet they kept buying.

There is one more business day this year, compared to 2016.  But just to be in the same ballpark as last year is fantastic, given rates are about 3/8% higher than last January, and the Trumpinator is providing major distractions.

Posted by on Jan 31, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 5 comments

NSDCC Sales

There have been press releases this week about December sales being down, and our cheerleader was happy to blame the higher rates and low inventory:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market’s best year since the Great Recession ended on a healthy but somewhat softer note. “Solid job creation throughout 2016 and exceptionally low mortgage rates translated into a good year for the housing market,” he said. “However, higher mortgage rates and home prices combined with record low inventory levels stunted sales in much of the country in December.”

Added Yun, “While a lack of listings and fast rising home prices was a headwind all year, the surge in rates since early November ultimately caught some prospective buyers off guard and dimmed their appetite or ability to buy a home as 2016 came to an end.”

He forgot about the TRID hangover from November, 2016 that pushed additional sales into December.  Our sales count last month was 235, which was just under the 253 sales in December, 2015.  I’ll take it!

But the quarterly totals would be a better gauge – these were my guesses from July, 2016 for the second half of the year:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers (with estimates):

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
850?
4Q
832
664
666
662
660?
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
2,975?

Here’s how it turned out:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers:

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
795
4Q
832
664
666
662
739
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
3,019

The 739 sales in 4Q16 exceeded my guess by 12%, and the momentum from 2016 should continue to drive sales in 2017.  We’ve already had 112 NSDCC closed sales this month, and have a week of closings left to catch last January’s 168 sales.  Full steam ahead!

Posted by on Jan 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

How about that weather!  Flash-flood warnings, high-surf advisories, and 1-2 inches of rainfall in the last 72 hours!

It’s not stopping buyers and sellers from getting together though!

We had 59 new pendings this week – the most since mid-October!

The lower-end exploded this week too.

There are only 24 houses for sale under $800,000, and their average list price per square foot jumped 10% in one week, to $470/sf.

The $470/sf is higher than the category above it, $800,000 – $1,400,000, which averaged $463/sf.  It’s the first time that’s ever happened!

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY…WAVES BREAKING  22 TO 25 FEET ALONG WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Jan 23, 2017 in Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 2 comments

Trump and Local Real Estate

The inauguration is almost here – Trump will be your president on Friday!

How will he affect our local real estate market?

His detractors are aghast over his tweets, but Trump keeps them coming.  In spite of their bombastic nature, I think we are already numb to his tweets, or at least getting used to them being part of the landscape.

At this point, I don’t think the Trump Effect will have much, if any, impact on us – positive or negative.  If rates stay under 5% (today’s 30Y is 4.12%), buyers should shrug it off and keep buying.

I also think sellers and agents are getting smarter about price, which will help tremendously.  As you saw in the previous post, they might screw it up a bit once they hit the market, but eventually buyers and sellers should both be happy with a modest appreciation rate of 2% to 4% this year.

The #1 thing that should keep our market stable is the buyers’ focus on getting the right house for the long-term.  Before the 2007 downturn, buyers thought they could always sell for a gain, and, as a result, any house would work for the short-term.  But after our so-called ‘crisis’, we recognize prices can go down – but it only hurts if you sell.

Sales and prices may bounce around, but with the focus on the long-term as a foundation, our market should keep cooking.

Posted by on Jan 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

NSDCC 2016 Days on Market

Here we have the 3,019 NSDCC houses sold last year, categorized by how many days it took to find their buyer:

Number of Days On Market Number of Houses Sold Percent of Total
0-14 days
1,126
37%
15-30
582
19%
31-45
342
11%
46-60
245
8%
61-75
169
6%
76-90
134
4%
90+
421
14%

Buyers are frustrated and anxious, and they want to buy a house now. Last year, more than half purchased their home in the first month it was on the market.

Sellers should expect immediate action, and take advantage of it! If you don’t want to sell in the first month, then you should wait until you get closer to your preferred exit date.

This is also why the re-freshing of listings is so widespread – buyers want the fresh meat. Check the history of every new listing!

Posted by on Jan 15, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

NSDCC New Listings in 2017

Can we get a feel for the action yet?  Here’s just a small sample of what’s happening so far – a comparison to previous years of how many new listings have hit the MLS (most are re-freshed):

NSDCC New Listings, First Ten Days

Year
Number of New Listings
Median List Price
Median Sales Price
2013
129
$975,000
$865,000
2014
135
$1,375,000
$1,180,000
2015
138
$1,249,000
$1,100,000
2016
134
$1,666,950
$1,237,000
2017
124
$1,557,500
?

No flood of new listings yet, though there will be some late-reporters that should bring the 2017 total into the 130s. But so far, it looks like more of the same conditions – tight inventory!

The median sales price is what happened eventually to these early listings. Look at the gaps between the MLP and the MSP – you can see how optimistic sellers come out, only to find that buyers didn’t go for it in the new year either.

Posted by on Jan 13, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

San Diego County Annual House Sales

For those looking for a more binary view of market conditions (hot/cold, good/bad), let’s compare San Diego County detached-home sales for 2016 to the previous years.

San Diego County Annual Detached-Home Sales

Year
No. of Sales
Median Sales Price
Avg. Days on Market
2012
25,023
$383,000
76
2013
24,910
$455,000
50
2014
22,101
$495,000
47
2015
23,732
$529,000
42
2016
23,802
$560,000
37

The median sales price has gone up 46%, yet the number of sales were only 5% lower in 2016 than in 2012. Last year, sales were higher than the last two years, and the average days on the market are half what they used to be

Those are fantastic market conditions!

Could the momentum keep going? Will it?

There were good reasons that the real estate market has tanked previously. In 1981, mortgage rates hit 18%, when just four years prior they were in the 8s – that is sticker shock! In the early-1990s, we had the Savings & Loan crisis when they gave away all the foreclosed houses. Of course, in 2006-2008 we had the Mozilo Crisis, where exotic mortgages caused a panic.

It would take a catastrophic event to topple our market now. Sales and prices may bounce around, but the baby-boomer wealth distribution program will juice the market for decades. The final gift of boomers will be to make sure their children all have houses, and even Trump won’t screw that up. If anything, the hysteria will cause more boomers to worry about their kids!

Here are the NSDCC annual sales, broken down into North and South:

La Jolla-Del Mar-SB-RSF-Carmel Valley Detached-Home Sales

Year
No. of Sales
Median Sales Price
Avg. Days on Market
2012
1,364
$1,175,000
93
2013
1,462
$1,350,000
61
2014
1,285
$1,445,000
63
2015
1,301
$1,500,000
63
2016
1,369
$1,520,000
58

Carlsbad-Cardiff-Encinitas Annual Detached-Home Sales

Year
No. of Sales
Median Sales Price
Avg. Days on Market
2012
1,790
$684,042
70
2013
1,756
$770,500
41
2014
1,564
$815,000
41
2015
1,723
$870,000
37
2016
1,639
$919,000
34

What could cause the market to tank, besides a catastrophic event? We’d have to run out of buyers. But if there is any place in the good ol’ USA that people will keep coming, it’s San Diego!

Posted by on Jan 4, 2017 in Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 15 comments