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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Second Half of 2015

We have entered the second half of 2015 with a full head of steam – in the first half of 2015, NSDCC detached-home sales were up 5% YoY!

Is there a natural cooling off in the second half?  Not really.

Second-half sales have been influenced by mortgage rates recently.  We had a resurgence in the second half of 2012 when both rates AND prices were declining – sales were 14% higher than in the first half.  Once we bounced back over 4% in mid-2013, sales cooled down until rates dipped back into the threes in January of this year.

Here are the half-year stats, starting with a reflection back to 2007, the previous high point of the median sales price:

Half-Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median Days on Market
1H2007
1,387
$1,000,000
47
2H2007
1,092
$1,000,762
51
1H2012
1,477
$815,000
51
2H2012
1,677
$845,000
44
1H2013
1,670
$919,950
21
2H2013
1,548
$980,000
29
1H2014
1,431
$1,020,000
24
2H2014
1,419
$1,025,000
31
1H2015
1,507
$1,125,000
23

Lately, rates AND prices have been trending upward, which suggests market slowing, plus the inventory is picked over!

Currently, two-thirds of the NSDCC houses for sale have been on the market for more than 30 days, and unless those sellers get aggressive about pricing, sales are likely to taper off as rates and prices stay flat or rise for the rest of 2015.

Posted by on Jul 2, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

The Haves

I heard an interesting comment the other day on broker caravan.

The listing agent said, “Maybe we’re all undervalued?”, as he sat on his $6,000,000 listing with nobody else in attendance.

If you judge it by the weather, he could have a point.  If we have the best weather in the U.S.A., then we should have the highest-priced real estate.

It probably means that rich folks from around the world who are retiring will be giving strong consideration to the San Diego area.  Retirees are going to be drawn to where the grandkids live first, and if the ‘kids are in the general Southern California vicinity, then San Diego might be considered for retirement.

Either that is happening, and/or our employment base is stronger than ever.

Two days ago, we saw that the NSDCC sales this year between January 1st and June 15th were 7% higher than last year.

NSDCC is the coastal area between La Jolla and Carlsbad that has a population of around 300,000 people.  Carlsbad makes up about a third of the population and sales in the area, and realtors and buyers alike consider it a quality lower-priced alternative to the affluent Encinitas-La Jolla stretch.

Here is the breakdown of those January 1st-June 15th sales:

Category by Area
2014
2015
% chg
Carlsbad # of New Listings
812
868
+7%
Carlsbad # of Closed Sales
462
493
+7%
Carlsbad Median SP
$769,500
$800,000
+4%
La Jolla-Enc # of New Listings
1,660
1,631
-2%
La Jolla-Enc # of Closed Sales
797
859
+8%
La Jolla-Enc Median SP
$1,300,000
$1,375,000
+6%

The number of sales in Carlsbad corresponded with a similar increase in listings.  But look at the higher end market – the year-over-year sales were 8% higher, in spite of 2% fewer listings!  The median price increased nicely too.

This is an affluent area, and real estate is booming – could it be undervalued?

Posted by on Jun 26, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

Local Trends

SD pricing June 2015

Have you seen how some of the list prices have gone ballistic lately?

You can see above how the red ‘Sold’ price-per-sf trend line has been increasing moderately, but the 90-day average list pricing has taken off over the last few months (in blue).

What is causing the recent enthusiasm among sellers?

The inventory is still low – lower than last year.  But there are more sales happening in 2015, in spite of fewer choices and higher prices!

These are San Diego charts, but the same in true in NSDCC, where we had 1,259 sales between January 1st and June 15, 2014, and this year there were 1,349 sales – which is a 7% increase in NSDCC sales year-over-year.

In 2013 we had 1,497 sales.

Here are the active listings and sales counts below:

SD Inventory 2015

Though this chart doesn’t show all of 2013, it is incredible to see that today’s inventory is back around those levels when we were in the full frenzy!

It’s a slightly different mix – we’ve had fewer NSDCC listings this year than in 2013.  But the frenzy fever looks very similar on paper!

How long can it last?  Have you seen an occasional neighborhood that has for-sale signs piling up?  Coastal tract houses in the $1M to $2M range are particular susceptible.  There are 367 houses for sale in that range currently, which isn’t exactly panic time, because there were 127 that closed in the last 30 days!

But those were the plums – the best available. What happens to the rest?

I know it seems like summer just started, and we’ll probably keep getting enough happy news to keep the party rolling (like Case-Shiller next Tuesday).

But those are reflecting ancient history now.  By the time we get to August, the inventory will be so picked over that we should hit stall speed!

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Jun 24, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

Actives-to-Pendings Ratio

We’ve used the ratio of active-listings-to-pending-listings as a measure of the overall ‘health’ of the market, with a 2:1 ratio being about right.  This is how it looked earlier this year, on February 23, 2015:

ActPend

The overall Actives-to-Pendings ratio in February was 1.69 to 1.

It is the same 1.69:1 today!

Here are the current stats – areas with more pendings than actives are in bold:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
16
11
31
$1,250,000
$644/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
51
29
67
$755,000
$527/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
121
93
189
$825,000
$323/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
26
54
$642,500
$320/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
39
38
77
$875,000
$364/sf
Del Mar
92014
58
23
64
$1,582,000
$740/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
68
180
$1,087,000
$458/sf
La Jolla
92037
185
44
150
$1,817,500
$790/sf
RSF
67+91
237
41
95
$2,550,000
$528/sf
Solana Bch
92075
15
11
39
$1,539,000
$682/sf
W. RB
92127
161
90
211
$855,000
$326/sf
E. RB
92128
62
85
200
$615,000
$326/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
54
59
151
$673,500
$318/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
116
80
154
$1,168,750
$400/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
51
56
119
$778,500
$333/sf
All Above
All
1,273
754
1,781
$887,500
$472/sf

Those with smaller sample sizes can vary wildly, yet most of these look fairly consistent.  As usual, Carmel Valley is really rocking – the 80 pendings have an average list price of $1,265,778!  Encinitas deserves recognition too for having 180 solds already this year with a median sales price of $1,087,000!

Posted by on May 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales History

Last week we saw the recent NSDCC sales history – how does it compare to previous years?

Here are the sales stats from the first four months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
April 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
1997
815
$350,000
8.14%
1998
889
$425,000
7.14%
1999
927
$449,900
6.92%
2000
1,043
$535,000
8.15%
2001
867
$540,000
7.08%
2002
1,176
$604,250
6.99%
2003
1,050
$675,000
5.81%
2004
1,060
$906,000
5.83%
2005
958
$970,000
5.86%
2006
847
$970,000
6.51%
2007
848
$975,000
6.18%
2008
587
$950,000
5.92%
2009
509
$801,000
4.81%
2010
726
$825,532
5.10%
2011
787
$844,617
4.84%
2012
849
$795,000
3.91%
2013
975
$880,000
3.45%
2014
839
$1,025,000
4.34%
2015
904
$1,139,258
3.67%

In spite of all the excuses – low supply, high prices, tough credit, etc. – this year’s sales count is the second highest of the last ten years.

Want to know the direction of the market? Watch the sales count – it reflects the changing combination of low supply, prices, tough credit, and mortgage rates. We have it good here!

Click for more local history: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2005/dec/25/housing-boomed-in-north-county/

Posted by on May 19, 2015 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 14 comments

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch should be where we’ll see any indicators of market trouble.  But today’s inventory is 6% less than a year ago, with only the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category higher (244 vs 240 listings).

A growing inventory would mean sales are slowing, but we’re selling more houses this year than last year.  In the first four months of 2014, we sold 838 NSDCC houses, and we’ve already closed 824 this year with four days to go plus late-reporters!

The 2015 average cost-per-sf is higher too: $432/sf vs. $415/sf last year.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 27, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC Could Be Hotter

With all the recent action mentioned in the previous post, it makes you wonder how much the market is fueled by frustration over the selection of homes for sale.  Yes, it is the “season”, but is the lack of inventory causing buyers to grab anything, at any price?

More inventory would help satisfy the demand, and help us discover if there is a ceiling to these prices. But adding just a few more houses for sale would only fire up the frenzy.

Here are the number of NSDCC houses listed between Jan. 1 and April 15th:

Year
Number of New NSDCC Listings, Jan 1 to Apr 15
2012
1,466
2013
1,565
2014
1,486
2015
1,483

Note how the hot frenzy in 2013 was fueled by having more homes for sale.  If we just had an extra 100-200 decent houses for sale now (especially under $2,000,000), they would likely get gobbled up.

Potential sellers, now is the time!

Posted by on Apr 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Go Time

Usually around tax day, the real estate market goes into a bit of a funk, and this year it was compounded by the disconnect between our MLS and Zillow – any new listings have to be manually inputted to Zillow, which isn’t obvious to most agents.

In spite of all that, there have been some remarkable new pendings in the last week.  A few examples:

1.  The neighbor down the street had a smaller lot and no guest apartment but had a more wide open view looking south – yet they struggled for 124 days before finding a buyer who paid $1,349,000 (closed on April 2nd).  Then this house lists for $1,599,000 and goes pending the first week:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/2313-mica,-carlsbad_rb/

2.  Granted, this is across the street from what is probably the nicest house in Carlsbad, but $1,980,000 is a boatload for the neighborhood.  Yet this only took 13 days to find a buyer:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3665-Maria-Ln-92008/home/3425217

3.  This house has been listed since September, with no price changes this year – the sellers just hung on and waited, and they went pending this week:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7671-Sitio-Manana-92009/home/7486694

4.  This is a teardown on a 9,771 sf lot with some ocean view in Leucadia listed for $1,299,000.  You could buy a brand new house down the street for the same money (or less), yet it only took 26 days for this to go pending:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/380-Hillcrest-Encinitas-CA-92024_rb/

5.  The seller of this house paid $1,575,000 two years ago, which was $80,000 over the list price then.  Two weeks ago, they listed it on the range $1,629,000 – $1,699,000, and received eight offers at or above the high end of the range.  My clients offered $1,760,000 cash and lost – rumor has it that the sales price is around $1,800,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1309-Caudor-St-Encinitas-CA-92024_rb/

6.  They couldn’t find a taker during the first two months of this year, so they went off the market for 30 days and came back on at the same price, $1,399,000.  Boom, went pending the first week:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1041-Saint-Albans,-Encinitas_rb/

7.  This has the big ocean view in Cardiff, but it also has a vacant lot in between which provides some uncertainty.  But it only took a week for this to find a buyer, listed for $2,915,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1464-summit,-cardiff,-ca-92007_rb/

8.  In Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, and La Jolla there were 17 new pendings, and almost all were lower-enders.  The auction happened on Friday night and I didn’t see any last-minute advertising like there was on the other auctions.  But it’s pending too:


Casa de Los Morros — from Concierge Auctions

Not only does there seem to be no drop-off in demand, but buyers are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the creampuffs – and most are above previous-peak pricing.

With the end of school/summertime within sight, expect the next four weeks to be very active before the graduation season commences.

Posted by on Apr 20, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

Inventory Watch

If you get the feeling that the 2015 market has been a lot like 2014, it’s because it has been, statistically.  Using the NSDCC data gathered below, here are the new actives and new pendings from the first 15 weeks of each year, and the number of house sales closed in the first quarter:

Year
New Actives
New Pendings
1Q Solds
1Q Avg $/sf
2014
1,282
900
581
$502/sf
2015
1,263
903
614
$509/sf

Are we at a pause before climbing higher?  Plateau City?  Or are we at the crest of the roller-coaster??

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 13, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments