bubbleinfo.com

From the U-T:

When Cliff Hanna and his wife, Lana Le, bought a dream lot overlooking Torrey Pines State Reserve, they hired an architect to design a dream home to match.

The trouble was that the price tag came out at $2 million.

“The cost was way too much to build,” Hanna said. “We couldn’t afford it.”

So the couple turned to Hanna’s father, Charles Hanna, a civil engineer who recommended a cheaper construction method: modular housing.

This week, the results of that detour from standard, site-building construction will arrive. A caravan of flatbed trucks will deliver four modules built in Boise, Idaho. A crane will place them on a concrete foundation, constructed over the past six months, in a matter of hours.

Then, over the next three months, Lusk Custom Design & Construction will complete a connecting structure and install the appliances, fixtures and flooring. The Hannas hope to move in by early summer.

Total projected cost: $1,017,000. Time from start to finish: nine months.

Compare that with the 12 months or more it takes to build a comparable custom home and it’s easy to see why modular might be the wave of the future as the U.S. home-building industry shakes off the recession.

Read the whole article by clicking here.

Feel like spending around $1.3 million or so?

Here’s what it’ll get you in the Convenant of Rancho Santa Fe:

Just the fact that so many more higher-end sales are closing these days is noteworthy, the NSD County Coastal sales of detached $1,000,000+ homes have increased 55% on a year-over-year comparison (and if you take out La Jolla, the others increased a total of 79%!)

Let’s chart the $1,000,000-plus market. Here are the number of active and pending detached listings, the 2009 and 2010 closed sales between Jan. 1 and March 10th, and the number of trustee sales YTD of SFRs that have a Foreclosureradar value of at least $1,000,000:

Sales are healthier, how does pricing compare?

Price will fix anything!

Hymettus is one of the more prominent streets in Leucadia, but there haven’t been any sales there since summer. So two older sales on Hymettus are included, the first closed in July, 2009, and the second was January, 2009:

I hesitated with the first story, but it demonstrates how a life-changing event at the wrong time can be very costly.

A few more recent sales around Carmel Valley, and how they compared to model-match sales at peak:

Here’s a tour of Derby Hill, the Pardee tract of big bombers south of the 56 freeway. In the MLS remarks of the only model listed, it said that the furniture did not convey. The house across the street (towards the end of video) that’s mentioned as pending, listed for $1,449,000, had multiple offers and just closed escrow a couple of days ago – full price:

The recent Mustang Ridge resales on video:

A. The $1,337,500 was 2% under price the seller had paid, but buyers’ were represented by father who may have kicked in commission.

B. The $1,335,000 was $100,000 over what seller paid in March, 2007.

C. The $1,449,000 was $6,000 under what seller paid in March, 2007.

Yes, they had paid for improvements during their stay, plus closing costs.

What is the difference between peak pricing and today? 

Many considered that 2006 was the peak of the market in 92130, here is a youtube tour of a few recent sales, and how they compared to previous comps:

Hat tip to Rob who sent this in:

SAN DIEGO — The safest place to live in San Diego includes parts of Rancho Peñasquitos and Carmel Valley, according to a new study by a private company.

NeighborhoodScout, a company that specializes in helping families and businesses make relocation decisions, took a variety of crime data from the nation’s 50 largest cities and came up with a ranking of 1 to 100, with 100 being the best score. It recently posted an article on WalletPop.com that scored Rancho Peñasquitos/Carmel Valley at 97. The chance of becoming a victim of crime in the area — which included ZIP codes 92130, 92129 and 92121 — was listed as 1 in 769.

Data included reports from local agencies and the FBI and looked at violent and property crimes, including murder, rape, theft and burglary. According to the study, the nation’s average crime index is 50. The company’s Web site said the area around and west of Carmel Mountain and Black Mountain roads is in the top 15 percent of the nation’s wealthiest communities and has a median home value of $746,668.

A youtube tour of recent detached sales in Carlsbad:

The Spring Kick statistics for North SD County’s Coastal region are likely to be tepid, at best, over the next few months, just because of the low inventory - the quality buys are hard to come by.

But if there was an area that could continue to beat the odds, it’s 92130.

I think most of us figured that Carmel Valley would be at $300/sf by now, but all four of these stats are holding up – why? The strength of the buyer pool is phenomenal, and the amount of cash is mind-boggling. Here are the down payments of the Carmel Valley SFRs closed this year (1/1-2/22):

It’s been like this for months, 77.5% of the buyers have at least 25% down, and 35% used more than 50% down payments. Two thoughts: We’re probably not going to see cascading defaults of recent buyers in the future, when they have invested so much down-payment. Their payments are lower (though not low), and they must feel comfortable with their finances to invest so much up front – they must intend to stay a while. Secondly, we should grapple with the likelihood that real estate in the area has turned into a rich-man’s game….only. We know that homeownership isn’t for everyone, but if these trends continue, buying a house will just be for the elite, at least in 92130.

Are the sellers having to take big hits to sell?  From the tax rolls, here are the same-house-sales data; the amount of price change between the last sale and the most recent (between Jan.1 – Feb. 22):

2002 and before:
+144%,+138%,+113%,+102%,+99%,+83%,+80%,+47%,+34%,+20%,+14% (REO)
2003:
+33%,+28%,+19%,+14%,-4% (REO)
2004:
+9%,+7%,+7%
2005:
-10%, -17% (REO)
2006:
+2%,-4%,-11%,-11%,-12%,-13%,-20%
2007:
+8%,-5%,-12%,-13%,-20% (REO),-22%
2008:
0,-2%,-4%

Will there be enough peak-buyers that either can’t afford their payments, or bail out due to being underwater that we’ll see a significant change in the trend? I think it would have happened by now, but if it’s still coming, we should see more signs in the next few months.

An indicator to watch is the amount of new listings coming on the market. This month isn’t over, but here are the number of February detached listings from 2001 to 2010:

85,70,81,63,70,79,75,73,73,and 69 so far this month.

Levitating, or just beating the odds – either way, it;’s been impressive in Carmel Valley!