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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

“Severe Housing Drought”

We are used to headline porn, but this one sounds startling – are we having a Severe Housing Drought?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/23/this-is-whats-behind-the-severe-housing-drought.html

In the article, she says that nationally we have the fewest homes for sale than at any time in the last 18 years.  But are they just selling faster, which would give the appearance of low inventory?  If we have a similar number of houses being listed and they are selling faster, I wouldn’t consider that a drought, let alone a severe drought.

First, let’s compare the total supply and number of closed sales in 2017 to previous years – these are the numbers from January 1st to March 15th:

NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad)

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
1,042
$1,149,000
518
$842,950
31
2014
1,029
$1,295,000
464
$981,500
30
2015
1,043
$1,345,000
459
$1,145,000
31
2016
1,145
$1,489,900
421
$1,105,584
26
2017
987
$1,499,000
431
$1,200,000
24

This year’s number of new listings is 7% below the average of the last four years, but I wouldn’t call that a drought. If I watered my grass 7% less, it wouldn’t die. Besides, 40% of all listings don’t sell, so maybe the fewer listings just means fewer OPTs? The number of closed sales is much lower than previous years, but better than 2016.

How about the rest of the county?

San Diego County

Year
# of New Listings
Median LP
# of Solds
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
6,749
$479,000
4,426
$402,000
30
2014
7,077
$539,000
3,544
$475,000
28
2015
7,129
$569,000
3,582
$500,000
30
2016
7,146
$559,925
3,634
$532,500
24
2017
6,347
$639,500
3,696
$560,000
20

There are 10% fewer listings this year, compared to the average of the previous four years, but sales are HIGHER than any of the last three years. There isn’t a perfect relationship between listings and sales, because some of the closed sales were listed before January 1st. But the trend looks fine.

I don’t keep a record of the number of houses that are pending, but a couple of months ago we were around 300 in NSDCC (between La Jolla and Carlsbad).

Here is today’s count:

Area
# of Active Listings
# of Pendings
Median DOM
NSDCC
795
413
22
San Diego County
3,485
3,070
15

The reason we have a record-low number of homes for sale is because they are selling so fast.  Severe drought isn’t the right adjective – can we call it scorching hot?  Half of the pendings found a buyer in 15 days!

With half of the upcoming closed sales finding their buyer that fast, it means they probably paid the seller’s price, or close.  The other half are sellers who are willing to wait until they get their price!  It means the pricing trend should continue upward.

I think we’re back in the frenzy zone!

Posted by on Mar 23, 2017 in Frenzy, How Hot?, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC Listing Symmetry

We have enjoyed an incredibly consistent market recently!

If we see a surge in new listings, it would be welcome relief for buyers. They would have more to choose from, and temper the price expectations of sellers.

But we’re not seeing any change yet – in fact, the number of new listings has been so consistent, it is mind-boggling!

NSDCC New Listings, March 1-10:

Year
# of New Listings
Median List Price
# Marked Pending 3/1-15
2013
166
$1,175,000
40
2014
161
$1,279,000
21
2015
170
$1,244,941
31
2016
177
$1,399,000
41
2017
170
$1,398,500
38

Our record-high prices aren’t bringing out any additional sellers!

There should be more listings marked pending today, so the 38 should match or exceed last year’s 41.

Posted by on Mar 15, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 1 comment

NSDCC Red Hot

Let’s use the $1,400,000 price point to show how hot the lower-end market is between Carlsbad and La Jolla.  When the active and pending listings are running at a 2 to 1 clip, I consider the market to be relatively healthy – and when you look at our overall market, we are about there:

NSDCC Listings

Listing Status
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Avg DOM
Actives
807
$2,395,000
88
Pendings
391
$1,277,900
62

The Actives:Pendings ratio = 2.08, which is a good start to the selling season.

But when we separate into two sets of data, it is easy to see where the market has been blistering hot:

NSDCC Listings Priced at $1,400,000 and Above:

Listing Status
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Avg DOM
Actives
620
$2,898,000
101
Pendings
165
$2,095,000
88

The Actives:Pendings ratio is 3.76 for the high-enders, which is pretty good, relatively-speaking – it has been much higher in the past.

But let’s look at the lower-end:

NSDCC Listings Priced at $1,400,000 and Below:

Listing Status
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Avg DOM
Actives
198
$1,049,950
49
Pendings
231
$979,000
42

The Actives:Pendings ratio is 0.86 – the lower-end has 33 more pendings than actives, and it’s only March 14th! The 42 average days on market could be seen as the average time it takes for the market to catch up to your price – quick!

Posted by on Mar 14, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC February Sales – Preliminary

We’ll still have a few late-reporters who will add to last month’s count.  But it looks like we’re going to get close to the 170 sales we had in 2015:

NSDCC February Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
188
$399/sf
$887,500
74
2014
180
$487/sf
$927,500
58
2015
170
$516/sf
$1,105,000
63
2016
144
$572/sf
$1,150,000
55
2017
159
$516/sf
$1,253,161
52

Last year had one more business day too!

Higher mortgage rates, Trump, record rainfall, Chargers leaving, etc. – in spite of the possible distractions, our market keeps hopping.  Or maybe all of them are contributing to the Hurry Up and Hunker Down program?

Posted by on Mar 2, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

San Diego County Sales – January

Thanks to the people who sent in the articles on U.S. existing-home sales in January being the best in ten years.  How did we do locally?

We saw that detached-home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad were about the same as recent Januarys:

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
165
$524/sf
$1,180,000
57

Here are the detached-home sales for the entire county – best since 2013!

San Diego County January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
1,695
$390,000
69
2014
1,308
$475,000
52
2015
1,302
$495,000
55
2016
1,323
$530,000
44
2017
1,372
$559,500
44

Rates are higher, prices are sky-high, and uncertainty is everywhere. How can the housing market be so vibrant?

I think both supply and demand are affected by the Hunker-Down effect.

Current baby-boomer households have already moved up a couple of times and are satisfied with what they have – and don’t want to rock the boat.

Buyers want to hurry up and buy before anything else goes wrong!

Save

Posted by on Feb 24, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, Market Buzz, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC January Sales

Above: South Carlsbad in 1972. Below: How it looks now, with a multi-use hotel complex coming someday to the remaining dirt at bottom (hat tip THB!):

Almost all of the late-reporters have marked their January sales closed by now.  Here is last month’s tally for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
162
$519/sf
$1,178,390
55

This is an area of 300,000+ people – as different neighborhoods get hot, prices are going to bounce around. Keep an eye of the number of sales; that’s where you would see a shift in buyer temperament.

Note: Most of these buyers knew Trump was going to be president when they made their decision to buy. From now on, our market stats should be reflecting the accurate Trump Effect, if any.

Posted by on Feb 11, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 3 comments

NSDCC Inventory Breakdown

Number of Houses For Sale by Price Range

There are 751 houses for sale today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and we should be adding 100 or so per week for the next couple of months.

If you are hoping to buy on the lower end, you have an intense experience awaiting you!  There are only 95 houses for sale under $1,000,000, and 67 of those are in Carlsbad.  Find a way to spend more money, or enjoy everything Carlsbad has to offer – it’s a great town!

Rancho Santa Fe always seems to have a couple of hundred homes for sale – today’s count is 196, which makes up 26% of the total.  La Jolla has another 152 for sale, and the two areas together make up almost half of the inventory.

Get Good Help!

Save

Posted by on Feb 5, 2017 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

More Spring Selling Season Preview

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!

NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71
Feb 4, 2017
758
309
2.45

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:

February 1, 2016

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season!  Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!

February 4, 2017

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
7
1.86
$1,595,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
32
18
1.78
$1,146,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
70
51
1.37
$1,169,500
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
15
1.00
$859,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
31
20
1.55
$1,159,000
Del Mar
92014
54
17
3.18
$2,849,500
Encinitas
92024
74
37
2.00
$1,772,500
La Jolla
92037
151
35
4.31
$3,295,000
RSF
92067
194
43
4.51
$3,330,500
Solana Bch
92075
20
5
4.00
$2,075,000
Carmel Vly
92130
64
55
1.16
$1,731,250
All Above
All
758
309
2.45
$2,435,990

Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

NSDCC January Sales

Yesterday we saw that the number of new NSDCC listings this month was well under previous Januarys, which could impact sales.  When sales go down, we usually think it’s a precursor to prices falling, but sales could decline just because there aren’t enough houses to sell.

Can we make assumptions about who is selling, and who isn’t?

It is easy to not sell, and stay on the sidelines. You can avoid spending big money on home improvements, closing costs, and new furniture, and you don’t have to sort through your junk, which is a big plus.

It has to mean that the lower-motivated, casual sellers are the ones who aren’t listing their houses for sale, which is great.  It is better for everyone in the market to only have to deal with those who really want and need to sell.

What it should mean is that sales will keep up.

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
140 (so far)
$537/sf
$1,197,500
53

Last year we had 14 sales on the last business day of the month, and if we add another 10% for late-reporters, we are going to surpass the 168 sales we had last January. This is the first group of buyers to be hit by the abrupt rate increase, and yet they kept buying.

There is one more business day this year, compared to 2016.  But just to be in the same ballpark as last year is fantastic, given rates are about 3/8% higher than last January, and the Trumpinator is providing major distractions.

Posted by on Jan 31, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 5 comments

NSDCC Sales

There have been press releases this week about December sales being down, and our cheerleader was happy to blame the higher rates and low inventory:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market’s best year since the Great Recession ended on a healthy but somewhat softer note. “Solid job creation throughout 2016 and exceptionally low mortgage rates translated into a good year for the housing market,” he said. “However, higher mortgage rates and home prices combined with record low inventory levels stunted sales in much of the country in December.”

Added Yun, “While a lack of listings and fast rising home prices was a headwind all year, the surge in rates since early November ultimately caught some prospective buyers off guard and dimmed their appetite or ability to buy a home as 2016 came to an end.”

He forgot about the TRID hangover from November, 2016 that pushed additional sales into December.  Our sales count last month was 235, which was just under the 253 sales in December, 2015.  I’ll take it!

But the quarterly totals would be a better gauge – these were my guesses from July, 2016 for the second half of the year:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers (with estimates):

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
850?
4Q
832
664
666
662
660?
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
2,975?

Here’s how it turned out:

NSDCC Quarterly sales numbers:

Quarter
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q
577
672
581
629
556
2Q
900
998
849
901
909
3Q
845
884
753
832
795
4Q
832
664
666
662
739
Total
3,154
3,218
2,849
3,024
3,019

The 739 sales in 4Q16 exceeded my guess by 12%, and the momentum from 2016 should continue to drive sales in 2017.  We’ve already had 112 NSDCC closed sales this month, and have a week of closings left to catch last January’s 168 sales.  Full steam ahead!

Posted by on Jan 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments