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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC April Sales

april

It was concerning that the NSDCC sales in March had dropped off considerably year-over-year.  But we had a good bounce back in April – and when you look at the numbers this way, it’s obvious that March, 2015 was unusually frothy:

Monthly Detached-Home Sales, Carlsbad to La Jolla

Year
March Sales
April Sales
Difference
April Median Sales Price
2012
238
272
+34
$807,500
2013
299
303
+4
$955,000
2014
219
258
+39
$1,052,500
2015
294
278
-16
$1,090,500
2016
246
281
+35
$1,129,197

Sales are staying strong, in spite of how prices keep climbing. (???)

The lower-end is where you would think affordability would matter most, but that’s where prices are rising the fastest!

SDtiered

Posted by on May 3, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Inventory Watch

2016-04-10 15.18.59

The number of listings priced under $800,000 grew from 26 to 33 this week – an explosion of 27%.  But seriously, the average LP/sf did get back up to $409/sf, which isn’t the first time.

The curious statistic is the cost-per-sf of the next category.  Since we’ve been tracking over the last 2+ years, the average LP/sf has been as high as $470/sf for those listings between $800,000 and $1,400,000, but today it’s down to $418/sf – the closest it’s been to the category below.

It probably means that the sluggishness is starting lower and lower.

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on May 2, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC First Third of 2016

updown

Today we are wrapping up the first third of 2016!

We complain about low inventory, but we’ve had more NSDCC houses listed in the first four months of 2016 than any year since 2011:

Year
Jan-Apr New Listings
Jan-Apr Closed Sales
NL/CS Ratio
2005
1,778
958
1.86
2006
2,232
847
2.64
2007
2,022
848
2.38
2008
1,988
587
3.39
2009
1,919
509
3.77
2010
1,919
726
2.64
2011
1,986
787
2.52
2012
1,684
849
1.93
2013
1,822
975
1.87
2014
1,746
839
2.08
2015
1,745
907
1.92
2016
1,855
814
2.28

This is the first time since 2006 that we’ve had the new listings increase, and sales decrease!

Using the NL/CS ratio, can we say that a market that is under 2.0 is a hot, and over 3.0 is scrambling-to-get-out?

Then is 2016 just a ‘normal’ market?

P.S. Statistics have quirky coincidences, and I double-check any time we have one. We had the exact same number of new listings in 2009 and 2010!

Posted by on Apr 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Spring Kick Report

2016-04-16 15.56.17-2

We’re well into the spring selling season (May 1st is twelve days away), and soon the talking heads will be touting fewer sales this year, compared to 2015.

It is short-sighted though, because 2015 was a great year, statistically.  When you consider that prices are still strong, and any softness in the market is at the high-end where hopefully sellers can endure, it’s hard to complain!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales between March 1 – April 15

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
2012
345
$813,500
$367/sf
2013
438
$873,250
$406/sf
2014
351
$1,030,000
$494/sf
2015
419
$1,100,000
$496/sf
2016
365
$1,142,331
$525/sf

Whether the demand is getting more picky or just taking a breather, to still have 365 sales after a 40% price hike in four years is phenomenal.

Posted by on Apr 19, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

New Peak Pricing

peak

Today’s prices are higher than they were in 2007 around most areas of North San Diego’s coastal region, and the median sales prices in the quaint coastal towns of Cardiff, Carlsbad, and Encinitas have blown up!

But Rancho Santa Fe – facing too much competition from surrounding areas – is the only area that is still significantly behind its MSP from 2007:

NSDCC Number of MLS Sales and Median Sales Price, 1st Quarter

Town or Area
2007 Sales
Median SP
2016 Sales
Median SP
Price Diff
Cardiff
17
$925,000
15
$1,100,000
+19%
Carlsbad NW
36
$680,000
36
$865,000
+27%
Carlsbad SE
88
$848,500
78
$880,000
+4%
Carlsbad SW
47
$861,000
56
$896,500
+4%
Del Mar
31
$1,562,500
33
$1,700,000
+9%
Encinitas
97
$830,000
83
$1,095,000
+32%
La Jolla
58
$1,700,000
62
$1,857,500
+9%
RSF
36
$2,725,000
27
$2,380,000
-13%
Solana Bch
27
$1,350,000
19
$1,335,000
-1%
Carmel Vly
114
$1,000,000
100
$1,128,500
+13%
All
575
$997,000
552
$1,122,000
+13%

Posted by on Apr 12, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 4 comments

NSDCC Higher-End Stalling?

panic

There has always been some sort of relationship between inventory and sales.

When inventory is tight, sellers have the advantage because buyers get frenzied up and just pay the price to win one.

With a smaller increase in inventory, the frenzy can soak up the supply – sales can increase too because more demand gets satisfied.

But there comes a point when a larger increase in the inventory causes the buyers to back off, and sales stall.

It is a delicate balance because buyers want more choices, but when it feels like not much is actually selling, buyers regain control of the market.  They adopt the wait-and-see approach – even with homes that appear to be well-priced.  They want someone else to go first!

Let’s examine the local data to see how we’re doing.  There isn’t a direct relationship between new listings and sales in the same time period, because many if not most of the sales were listings from the previous quarter or quarters.  But we can use the ratios to compare the velocities:

San Diego County Detached-Homes, 1st Quarter

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
8,544
4,556
53%
2015
8,752
4,794
55%
2016
8,607
4,626
54%

So far, so good. When we look at the whole county year-over-year, there has been a very similar relationship between new listings and sales in the first quarter.  Let’s check around the northern coast:

North San Diego County Coastal Region, 1st Quarter

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
1,235
581
47%
2015
1,275
629
49%
2016
1,372
549
40%

We are getting a little queasy now – there were 8% more new listings to consider, and sales dropped off 13% but we know that 2015 was a strong year so tough to keep up.

Let’s break down the NSDCC stats by price to find the trouble:

North SD County Coastal Region, 1st Quarter, UNDER $1,400,000

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
733
409
56%
2015
722
418
58%
2016
654
375
57%

No big problems there – the Under-$1.4M sales declined, but so did the number of new listings so the ratio was about the same as the previous two years.

But that means the higher-end market isn’t enjoying the same benefits:

North SD County Coastal Region, 1st Quarter, OVER $1,400,000

1Q – Year
1Q New Listings
1Q Solds
1QNL/1QSolds Ratio
2014
513
178
35%
2015
568
216
38%
2016
734
178
24%

Yikes, the number of new listings over $1,400,000 zoomed 30% higher than last year, and sales dropped 18% – an example of how too many choices are causing buyers to pause (the identical 178 sales in 2014 and 2016 was a fluke).

The higher-end market could be stalling just because of the additional choices.  If there were only 5% or 10% more listings (like last year), it probably wouldn’t be that noticeable – but the +30% is leaving a mark.

The extra listings may not even be ‘over-priced’ on paper (or by zestimate), but with so many active listings stacking up, the buyer’s confidence in the wait-and-see program is rewarded – and also causing their ‘picky-ness’ to increase rapidly.

There are 186 pendings listed over $1,400,000, so the market isn’t dead.

But last year at this time we had 564 active listings priced over $1,400,000, and today there are 695 listings – a 23% increase.

Having 30% more new listings overall this year but only 23% more active listings today means we were able to soak up some of the extra supply.  But the rest are lingering.

How should these sellers proceed?  Be sharper on price, and if you’re not getting offers in the first 2-3 weeks on the market, then do bigger price reductions faster.

You don’t want to look up in July and wonder what happened.  You know now.

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Apr 9, 2016 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

NSDCC Avg DOM, 1st Qtr

sell

Our low inventory has buyers starved for houses to purchase.  When they see a good one, they react immediately – an attractively-priced house will have people driving by within the first hour or two on the market!

Sellers should be aware, and expect to sell their house right away.

Those who don’t shine up their house before listing, or those who get exuberant about price – thinking they have plenty of time – will miss a golden opportunity.  The most desperate buyers are motivated to pay top dollar in the first few days on the market!

Here are the number of NSDCC houses sold up to $1,400,000 in the first quarter, ranked by days-on-market:

Avg DOM
2013 #/SP:LP
2014 #/SP:LP
2015 #/SP:LP
2016 #/SP:LP
0
19/97.0%
8/98.2%
6/91.9%
9/97.4%
1-14
205/99.5%
169/99.4%
160/98.6%
125/99.3%
15-30
80/97.2%
58/97.7%
65/96.7%
64/97.7%
31-60
68/96.5%
78/96.5%
83/96.7%
72/97.0%
61+
157/95.5%
96//94.8%
104/96.1%
89/95.9%

Sellers – you want to get your price, right?

The houses that sell closest to list price are those that go pending in the first two weeks.  These SP:LP ratios are based on the list price on the pending date – the price which typically needs to be lowered first to get a buyer to offer, because they know it isn’t working after the first few weeks.

Hire a listing agent who can handle the immediate urgency – Get Good Help!

Posted by on Mar 31, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 0 comments

Great Time to Buy Up!

blitz

Yesterday another one of the more famous ivory-tower guys made an interesting statement:

“The low inventory of homes for sale — currently about a five-month supply — means that would-be sellers seeking to trade up are having a hard time finding a new, larger home,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

As is the case with most of these random quotes, there is no reference cited for the comment.  He’s just making stuff up.

Sellers who are ‘seeking to trade up’ are having the easier time of it, and the inventory gets more bloated the higher you go.

It is the potential sellers who are thinking of moving DOWN that are reluctant to enter the market.  Why?

It is brutal trying to move down comfortably, especially if you want to use the proceeds from the sale of your more-expensive home!

The lower you go, the hotter it gets!

Here are today’s 2016 stats for NSDCC houses (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Category
Under-$1,400,000
Over-$1,400,000
Active Listings
238
697
Pending Listings
259
163
Sold in 2016
348
172
Solds Avg Days on Market
45
57
SP:LP
97.6%
93.9%

The $1,400,000 mark is what we’ve seen to be the max sweet spot for the hottest markets. Below that price today, there are more pendings that actives!

Can we put to rest the old adage that it takes longer to sell the more-expensive homes in this hyper-era?  On average, we’re talking 12 more days, yet how many high-enders do you see languishing on the market for months or years just thinking that it takes more time?

Blitzy and other ivory-tower types should plug in – has there ever been a better time to move up?  Jumbo rates are below conforming rates, there are more houses for sale and the pace is slower.  It’s a great time to buy up!

Posted by on Mar 30, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

It’s Go Time

springkick

We’ve all heard the rule about listing your home for sale in the spring.

But when are buyers actually buying?

Are there any times when the demand could wane, and sellers should avoid?

There are three events that could cause a lull in the demand:

  1.  Easter/Spring Break
  2.  Tax Day/Season
  3.  Graduation Season

If all we had to worry about was Easter Day, then we might lose a few hours – there were plenty of open houses on Saturday.  But families with school-age kids get 9-10 days off, which is tempting for them to spend on vacation.

Should sellers wait?

Then you have the tax-day slowdown, which is usually the 1-2 days that people waste having to arm-wrestle with their income taxes.

Keep waiting?

Graduation season is more than it used to be, with every kid from pre-school through college getting the pomp and circumstance fit for a king.

Good grief – it will be mid-summer by the time every distraction clears!

Let’s examine the most important fact – when are buyers buying?

These intervals below were based on the hunch that the combined spring-break/tax-day season (3/16-4/15) might show some weakness:

NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales – Dates They Were Marked Pending:

Year
2/16-3/15
3/16-4/15
4/16-5/15
5/16-6/15
7/16-8/15
2012
264
297
309
307
231
2013
293
362
340
326
248
2014
231
271
303
261
264
2015
264
318
308
311
289
Avg
263
312
315
301
258

How about that!

The spring-break/tax-day season was the hottest of the year in 2015, and on average about as good of a time to sell as any!

It’s Go Time!

Posted by on Mar 28, 2016 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Coachella Valley Real Estate

2014-04-11 22.15.30

More in our series of how real estate markets are faring around the world.  I chose this report because of the realtor quote that the market is ‘in a bit of a slump’, resulting from a 15% shift in demand?  Markets could be that sensitive!

Our market doesn’t seem to be having any price declines or ‘slump’, but our NSDCC inventory priced above $1,400,000 is up 26% year-over-year, like mentioned below. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/26/low-loonie-california-rea_n_9551794.html

PALM SPRINGS, Calif. — Canadians are no longer flocking to California’s sunny Coachella Valley to buy homes since their currency has weakened, and many are putting properties they own up for sale, real estate experts said.

The move coincides with a decline in the Canadian dollar since oil prices have plummeted, the Desert Sun newspaper reported on Saturday.

After the U.S. housing market crashed in 2007, the Canadian dollar achieved parity with the U.S. dollar, prompting many Canadians to swoop up properties in the region.

Even as the U.S. economy recovered, Canadians still made up at least 15 per cent of homebuyers in California’s Coachella Valley, said David Emerson, a local real estate agent.

Now, home prices have fallen in the region, and the number of homes for sale has jumped. Inventory rose by about 25 per cent over the last year, according to the California Desert Association of Realtors.

“Our Canadian buyers are not buying,” Kelly Trembley, a realtor with Bennion Deville Homes, told the newspaper. “This was the perfect storm for the desert, and that’s why our real estate right now is in a bit of a slump.”

Brian and Linda Pahl — who live in Vancouver — bought a three-bedroom home in La Quinta more than two years ago for $450,000. Now the couple hopes to sell it for $725,000.

If the Canadian dollar strengthens down the road, however, Brian Pahl said he hasn’t ruled out another purchase.

“With the Canadian dollar being as low as it is, it pays to sell the home and pay the capital gains (tax),” he said. “We can buy again in two years.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/26/low-loonie-california-rea_n_9551794.html#slide=start

Posted by on Mar 27, 2016 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments