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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC Could Be Hotter

With all the recent action mentioned in the previous post, it makes you wonder how much the market is fueled by frustration over the selection of homes for sale.  Yes, it is the “season”, but is the lack of inventory causing buyers to grab anything, at any price?

More inventory would help satisfy the demand, and help us discover if there is a ceiling to these prices. But adding just a few more houses for sale would only fire up the frenzy.

Here are the number of NSDCC houses listed between Jan. 1 and April 15th:

Year
Number of New NSDCC Listings, Jan 1 to Apr 15
2012
1,466
2013
1,565
2014
1,486
2015
1,483

Note how the hot frenzy in 2013 was fueled by having more homes for sale.  If we just had an extra 100-200 decent houses for sale now (especially under $2,000,000), they would likely get gobbled up.

Potential sellers, now is the time!

Posted by on Apr 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Go Time

Usually around tax day, the real estate market goes into a bit of a funk, and this year it was compounded by the disconnect between our MLS and Zillow – any new listings have to be manually inputted to Zillow, which isn’t obvious to most agents.

In spite of all that, there have been some remarkable new pendings in the last week.  A few examples:

1.  The neighbor down the street had a smaller lot and no guest apartment but had a more wide open view looking south – yet they struggled for 124 days before finding a buyer who paid $1,349,000 (closed on April 2nd).  Then this house lists for $1,599,000 and goes pending the first week:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/2313-mica,-carlsbad_rb/

2.  Granted, this is across the street from what is probably the nicest house in Carlsbad, but $1,980,000 is a boatload for the neighborhood.  Yet this only took 13 days to find a buyer:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3665-Maria-Ln-92008/home/3425217

3.  This house has been listed since September, with no price changes this year – the sellers just hung on and waited, and they went pending this week:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7671-Sitio-Manana-92009/home/7486694

4.  This is a teardown on a 9,771 sf lot with some ocean view in Leucadia listed for $1,299,000.  You could buy a brand new house down the street for the same money (or less), yet it only took 26 days for this to go pending:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/380-Hillcrest-Encinitas-CA-92024_rb/

5.  The seller of this house paid $1,575,000 two years ago, which was $80,000 over the list price then.  Two weeks ago, they listed it on the range $1,629,000 – $1,699,000, and received eight offers at or above the high end of the range.  My clients offered $1,760,000 cash and lost – rumor has it that the sales price is around $1,800,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1309-Caudor-St-Encinitas-CA-92024_rb/

6.  They couldn’t find a taker during the first two months of this year, so they went off the market for 30 days and came back on at the same price, $1,399,000.  Boom, went pending the first week:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1041-Saint-Albans,-Encinitas_rb/

7.  This has the big ocean view in Cardiff, but it also has a vacant lot in between which provides some uncertainty.  But it only took a week for this to find a buyer, listed for $2,915,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1464-summit,-cardiff,-ca-92007_rb/

8.  In Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, and La Jolla there were 17 new pendings, and almost all were lower-enders.  The auction happened on Friday night and I didn’t see any last-minute advertising like there was on the other auctions.  But it’s pending too:


Casa de Los Morros — from Concierge Auctions

Not only does there seem to be no drop-off in demand, but buyers are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the creampuffs – and most are above previous-peak pricing.

With the end of school/summertime within sight, expect the next four weeks to be very active before the graduation season commences.

Posted by on Apr 20, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

Inventory Watch

If you get the feeling that the 2015 market has been a lot like 2014, it’s because it has been, statistically.  Using the NSDCC data gathered below, here are the new actives and new pendings from the first 15 weeks of each year, and the number of house sales closed in the first quarter:

Year
New Actives
New Pendings
1Q Solds
1Q Avg $/sf
2014
1,282
900
581
$502/sf
2015
1,263
903
614
$509/sf

Are we at a pause before climbing higher?  Plateau City?  Or are we at the crest of the roller-coaster??

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 13, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC 1st Qtr. Stats

The continued strength in sales and pricing is remarkable. We sold 360 houses between Carlsbad and La Jolla for more than $1,000,000 in the first quarter!

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Avg Cost Per SF
Avg. DOM
2012
577
$793,000
$362/sf
99
2013
672
$850,000
$386/sf
61
2014
581
$1,000,000
$503/sf
56
2015
613
$1,162,500
$509/sf
58

Since 2012, the median sales price has risen 47%, and the average $/sf has gone up 41%. Thank goodness for low mortgage rates!

mortgage rates april 2015

Posted by on Apr 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Two Open Houses Today

2015-03-28 17.38.53

Pernilla Lindberg, above

If you have any interest in golf, or just like a good walk in the park, stop by the final round today of Kia Classic at the Aviara Golf Club in Carlsbad.

It is a challenging course, yet all but seven of the finalists are under par – and the leader, Mirim Lee, is 16-under!

We will be having open house right by the main entrance to golf, so stop by!

Mallard golf map

The single-level house at 1341 Mallard has been rejuvenated with new paint and fresh landscaping, and the price is down to $1,495,000.  Open house is 12-3pm – stop by!

1341-mallard-court-055

1341-mallard-court-027

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150007764-1341_Mallard_Ct_Carlsbad_CA_92011

We’re also having open house 12-3pm at 6337 Greenhaven, which is the lowest-priced house for sale in Bressi Ranch at $291/sf.

6337-greenhaven-drive-001_web

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150014431-6337_Greenhaven_Dr_Carlsbad_CA_92009

Posted by on Mar 29, 2015 in Interesting Houses, North County Coastal, One-Story, Thinking of Buying? | 4 comments

North SD Actives/Pendings

How ‘cooking’ is it?

In NE Carlsbad, Solana Beach, East Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos there are more houses pending than active – that’s scorching hot.

Places where the Actives-to-Pendings are better than a 2:1 ratio are doing well.

Here are the stats in different areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cariff
92007
18
13
6
$705,800
$609/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
19
13
$770,000
$625/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
75
53
49
$860,000
$310/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
21
9
$660,000
$311/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
27
20
$788,750
$362/sf
Del Mar
92014
62
19
14
$1,370,000
$583/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
59
42
$1,207,952
$463/sf
La Jolla
92037
156
51
41
$1,835,000
$774/sf
RSF
67+91
183
34
31
$2,700,000
$555/sf
Solana Bch
92075
16
25
8
$1,658,750
$816/sf
W. RB
92127
113
76
51
$988,000
$329/sf
E. RB
92128
65
70
39
$594,000
$325/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
37
54
28
$660,000
$317/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
84
54
28
$1,171,750
$394/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
43
35
20
$856,000
$300/sf
All Above
All
1,028
610
402
$938,337
$439/sf

We’re just getting started!

Posted by on Feb 23, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC New Listings YTD

It used to make sense that the higher prices went, the more people would sell.

But now here we are at all-time high prices, and not many are interested.  It must be due to the lack of other options – not selling looks better than selling.

New Detached-Home Listings Between Jan 1 – Feb 15

Year
# of New Listings
Median List Price
2001
783
$659,000
2002
760
$707,450
2003
827
$829,000
2004
568
$999,950
2005
632
$1,166,000
2006
890
$1,099,000
2007
777
$1,200,000
2008
758
$1,166,836
2009
706
$1,195,000
2010
663
$959,000
2011
747
$995,000
2012
620
$935,450
2013
622
$1,121,950
2014
622
$1,300,000
2015
603
$1,380,000

One place where there has been some nice action is the $700,000 – $900,000 range along the I-15 corridor.  There has been a steady stream of new product coming to market, and momentum is building as most sell within the first week (catching many sellers and agents by surprise).

When there are only a smattering of new listings like we’re having along the coast, buyers struggle with whether the pricing is real.  A few will sell here and there, but more listings would provide more comfort to buyers, one way or another.  If they see them selling, then they’d be more likely to jump in!

Posted by on Feb 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

2015 Pendings By Price Range

Reader 97212 thinks that much of the Under-$800,000 inventory is graduating to higher price points, which is true.  As buyers grab what they can on the lower end, sellers will keep bumping higher.

The median list price of houses for sale from Carlsbad to La Jolla is $1,995,000, and below that it’s really been hopping.  Here are the number of new listings in 2015, and new pendings this year:

Price Category
# of New Listings, 2015
# of New Pendings, 2015
Ratio
Under-$800,000
119
103
1.2:1
$800K-$1.4M
217
134
1.6:1
$1.4 – $2.4M
153
78
2.0:1
Over-$2.4M
149
41
3.6:1

New pendings this year include properties that were listed last year. These are incredibly hot numbers in a market that has already seen 20% to 30% appreciation over the last couple of years. All it will take is for sellers to be reasonable about reading what the market will bear, and it should continue!

Posted by on Feb 17, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

One-Story Valentine!

Here’s one of the best listings I’ve ever had – a luxury one-story coastal estate in the gated community of Bella Lago in Aviara. Open this weekend 12-3pm:

1341-mallard-court-055 1341-mallard-court-022 1341-mallard-court-027

Luxury one-story coastal estate and former model home in the prestigious gated Aviara community of Bella Lago, next to the Aviara Golf Club.. This beautiful home has features including: designer finishes, upgraded hardwood flooring, built-in cabinetry throughout, surround sound, electronic shades, water filtration system, three fireplaces, second story bonus room and backyard oasis with an outdoor fireplace, pool, spa, waterfall and putting green. Kitchen loaded with Tibetan Black Quartz from the Dalai Lama, himself. He told me “and when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.” So you’ll have that goin’ for you, which is nice.

Posted by on Feb 11, 2015 in About Kayla, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, One-Story, Why You Should List With Jim | 7 comments

Not So Hot

It’s happening everywhere you go, and it’s in every conversation with agents – the market is buzzing with “lots of activity”.

What does that mean?  Does it mean anything?

Here’s what it means:

  • Buyers are giddy about getting a 3.75% jumbo rate.
  • Agents are giddy about driving around.
  • Sellers are giddy about selling for more than the last guy.

Sellers and agents who have lots of showings think their house is red hot, and they demand a premium – or at least they aren’t coming off their price much.

But they should be more realistic about those who aren’t offering.

If you have 10-30 showings and only 1-3 offers, it means the vast majority of buyers thought your home was over-priced.

Just because there are a lot of lookers doesn’t mean the eventual buyer will pay your price either.

Here are stats on the NSDCC closings so far this year:

Houses Closed Under $1,000,000

SP:LP = 96.3%

Average days on market: 51

Houses Closed Over $1,000,000

SP:LP = 92.5%

Average days on market: 86

Buyers want to pay a reasonable price, and those averages show that they are being patient.  Of the 192 closed sales so far in 2015, only NINE PAID OVER LIST!

All participants need to be smart about how the market works now.  You get a flood of interest in the first two weeks, and then the activity drops off to nearly zero – and those occasional showings are being used to sell the house down the street.  Be smart, read the market signals, and keep egos in check.

And Get Good Help!

SD prices15

 

Posted by on Feb 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments