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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Actives-to-Pendings Ratio

We’ve used the ratio of active-listings-to-pending-listings as a measure of the overall ‘health’ of the market, with a 2:1 ratio being about right.  This is how it looked earlier this year, on February 23, 2015:

ActPend

The overall Actives-to-Pendings ratio in February was 1.69 to 1.

It is the same 1.69:1 today!

Here are the current stats – areas with more pendings than actives are in bold:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
16
11
31
$1,250,000
$644/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
51
29
67
$755,000
$527/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
121
93
189
$825,000
$323/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
26
54
$642,500
$320/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
39
38
77
$875,000
$364/sf
Del Mar
92014
58
23
64
$1,582,000
$740/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
68
180
$1,087,000
$458/sf
La Jolla
92037
185
44
150
$1,817,500
$790/sf
RSF
67+91
237
41
95
$2,550,000
$528/sf
Solana Bch
92075
15
11
39
$1,539,000
$682/sf
W. RB
92127
161
90
211
$855,000
$326/sf
E. RB
92128
62
85
200
$615,000
$326/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
54
59
151
$673,500
$318/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
116
80
154
$1,168,750
$400/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
51
56
119
$778,500
$333/sf
All Above
All
1,273
754
1,781
$887,500
$472/sf

Those with smaller sample sizes can vary wildly, yet most of these look fairly consistent.  As usual, Carmel Valley is really rocking – the 80 pendings have an average list price of $1,265,778!  Encinitas deserves recognition too for having 180 solds already this year with a median sales price of $1,087,000!

Posted by on May 26, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Sales History

Last week we saw the recent NSDCC sales history – how does it compare to previous years?

Here are the sales stats from the first four months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
April 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
1997
815
$350,000
8.14%
1998
889
$425,000
7.14%
1999
927
$449,900
6.92%
2000
1,043
$535,000
8.15%
2001
867
$540,000
7.08%
2002
1,176
$604,250
6.99%
2003
1,050
$675,000
5.81%
2004
1,060
$906,000
5.83%
2005
958
$970,000
5.86%
2006
847
$970,000
6.51%
2007
848
$975,000
6.18%
2008
587
$950,000
5.92%
2009
509
$801,000
4.81%
2010
726
$825,532
5.10%
2011
787
$844,617
4.84%
2012
849
$795,000
3.91%
2013
975
$880,000
3.45%
2014
839
$1,025,000
4.34%
2015
904
$1,139,258
3.67%

In spite of all the excuses – low supply, high prices, tough credit, etc. – this year’s sales count is the second highest of the last ten years.

Want to know the direction of the market? Watch the sales count – it reflects the changing combination of low supply, prices, tough credit, and mortgage rates. We have it good here!

Click for more local history: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2005/dec/25/housing-boomed-in-north-county/

Posted by on May 19, 2015 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 14 comments

Inventory Watch

The Inventory Watch should be where we’ll see any indicators of market trouble.  But today’s inventory is 6% less than a year ago, with only the $800,000 – $1,400,000 category higher (244 vs 240 listings).

A growing inventory would mean sales are slowing, but we’re selling more houses this year than last year.  In the first four months of 2014, we sold 838 NSDCC houses, and we’ve already closed 824 this year with four days to go plus late-reporters!

The 2015 average cost-per-sf is higher too: $432/sf vs. $415/sf last year.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 27, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

NSDCC Could Be Hotter

With all the recent action mentioned in the previous post, it makes you wonder how much the market is fueled by frustration over the selection of homes for sale.  Yes, it is the “season”, but is the lack of inventory causing buyers to grab anything, at any price?

More inventory would help satisfy the demand, and help us discover if there is a ceiling to these prices. But adding just a few more houses for sale would only fire up the frenzy.

Here are the number of NSDCC houses listed between Jan. 1 and April 15th:

Year
Number of New NSDCC Listings, Jan 1 to Apr 15
2012
1,466
2013
1,565
2014
1,486
2015
1,483

Note how the hot frenzy in 2013 was fueled by having more homes for sale.  If we just had an extra 100-200 decent houses for sale now (especially under $2,000,000), they would likely get gobbled up.

Potential sellers, now is the time!

Posted by on Apr 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 2 comments

Go Time

Usually around tax day, the real estate market goes into a bit of a funk, and this year it was compounded by the disconnect between our MLS and Zillow – any new listings have to be manually inputted to Zillow, which isn’t obvious to most agents.

In spite of all that, there have been some remarkable new pendings in the last week.  A few examples:

1.  The neighbor down the street had a smaller lot and no guest apartment but had a more wide open view looking south – yet they struggled for 124 days before finding a buyer who paid $1,349,000 (closed on April 2nd).  Then this house lists for $1,599,000 and goes pending the first week:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/2313-mica,-carlsbad_rb/

2.  Granted, this is across the street from what is probably the nicest house in Carlsbad, but $1,980,000 is a boatload for the neighborhood.  Yet this only took 13 days to find a buyer:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3665-Maria-Ln-92008/home/3425217

3.  This house has been listed since September, with no price changes this year – the sellers just hung on and waited, and they went pending this week:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7671-Sitio-Manana-92009/home/7486694

4.  This is a teardown on a 9,771 sf lot with some ocean view in Leucadia listed for $1,299,000.  You could buy a brand new house down the street for the same money (or less), yet it only took 26 days for this to go pending:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/380-Hillcrest-Encinitas-CA-92024_rb/

5.  The seller of this house paid $1,575,000 two years ago, which was $80,000 over the list price then.  Two weeks ago, they listed it on the range $1,629,000 – $1,699,000, and received eight offers at or above the high end of the range.  My clients offered $1,760,000 cash and lost – rumor has it that the sales price is around $1,800,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1309-Caudor-St-Encinitas-CA-92024_rb/

6.  They couldn’t find a taker during the first two months of this year, so they went off the market for 30 days and came back on at the same price, $1,399,000.  Boom, went pending the first week:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1041-Saint-Albans,-Encinitas_rb/

7.  This has the big ocean view in Cardiff, but it also has a vacant lot in between which provides some uncertainty.  But it only took a week for this to find a buyer, listed for $2,915,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homes/1464-summit,-cardiff,-ca-92007_rb/

8.  In Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, and La Jolla there were 17 new pendings, and almost all were lower-enders.  The auction happened on Friday night and I didn’t see any last-minute advertising like there was on the other auctions.  But it’s pending too:


Casa de Los Morros — from Concierge Auctions

Not only does there seem to be no drop-off in demand, but buyers are willing to pay whatever it takes to get the creampuffs – and most are above previous-peak pricing.

With the end of school/summertime within sight, expect the next four weeks to be very active before the graduation season commences.

Posted by on Apr 20, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

Inventory Watch

If you get the feeling that the 2015 market has been a lot like 2014, it’s because it has been, statistically.  Using the NSDCC data gathered below, here are the new actives and new pendings from the first 15 weeks of each year, and the number of house sales closed in the first quarter:

Year
New Actives
New Pendings
1Q Solds
1Q Avg $/sf
2014
1,282
900
581
$502/sf
2015
1,263
903
614
$509/sf

Are we at a pause before climbing higher?  Plateau City?  Or are we at the crest of the roller-coaster??

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Apr 13, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

NSDCC 1st Qtr. Stats

The continued strength in sales and pricing is remarkable. We sold 360 houses between Carlsbad and La Jolla for more than $1,000,000 in the first quarter!

Year
Number of Sales
Median SP
Avg Cost Per SF
Avg. DOM
2012
577
$793,000
$362/sf
99
2013
672
$850,000
$386/sf
61
2014
581
$1,000,000
$503/sf
56
2015
613
$1,162,500
$509/sf
58

Since 2012, the median sales price has risen 47%, and the average $/sf has gone up 41%. Thank goodness for low mortgage rates!

mortgage rates april 2015

Posted by on Apr 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Two Open Houses Today

2015-03-28 17.38.53

Pernilla Lindberg, above

If you have any interest in golf, or just like a good walk in the park, stop by the final round today of Kia Classic at the Aviara Golf Club in Carlsbad.

It is a challenging course, yet all but seven of the finalists are under par – and the leader, Mirim Lee, is 16-under!

We will be having open house right by the main entrance to golf, so stop by!

Mallard golf map

The single-level house at 1341 Mallard has been rejuvenated with new paint and fresh landscaping, and the price is down to $1,495,000.  Open house is 12-3pm – stop by!

1341-mallard-court-055

1341-mallard-court-027

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150007764-1341_Mallard_Ct_Carlsbad_CA_92011

We’re also having open house 12-3pm at 6337 Greenhaven, which is the lowest-priced house for sale in Bressi Ranch at $291/sf.

6337-greenhaven-drive-001_web

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150014431-6337_Greenhaven_Dr_Carlsbad_CA_92009

Posted by on Mar 29, 2015 in Interesting Houses, North County Coastal, One-Story, Thinking of Buying? | 4 comments

North SD Actives/Pendings

How ‘cooking’ is it?

In NE Carlsbad, Solana Beach, East Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos there are more houses pending than active – that’s scorching hot.

Places where the Actives-to-Pendings are better than a 2:1 ratio are doing well.

Here are the stats in different areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cardiff
92007
18
13
6
$705,800
$609/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
19
13
$770,000
$625/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
75
53
49
$860,000
$310/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
21
9
$660,000
$311/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
27
20
$788,750
$362/sf
Del Mar
92014
62
19
14
$1,370,000
$583/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
59
42
$1,207,952
$463/sf
La Jolla
92037
156
51
41
$1,835,000
$774/sf
RSF
67+91
183
34
31
$2,700,000
$555/sf
Solana Bch
92075
16
25
8
$1,658,750
$816/sf
W. RB
92127
113
76
51
$988,000
$329/sf
E. RB
92128
65
70
39
$594,000
$325/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
37
54
28
$660,000
$317/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
84
54
28
$1,171,750
$394/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
43
35
20
$856,000
$300/sf
All Above
All
1,028
610
402
$938,337
$439/sf

We’re just getting started!

Posted by on Feb 23, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC New Listings YTD

It used to make sense that the higher prices went, the more people would sell.

But now here we are at all-time high prices, and not many are interested.  It must be due to the lack of other options – not selling looks better than selling.

New Detached-Home Listings Between Jan 1 – Feb 15

Year
# of New Listings
Median List Price
2001
783
$659,000
2002
760
$707,450
2003
827
$829,000
2004
568
$999,950
2005
632
$1,166,000
2006
890
$1,099,000
2007
777
$1,200,000
2008
758
$1,166,836
2009
706
$1,195,000
2010
663
$959,000
2011
747
$995,000
2012
620
$935,450
2013
622
$1,121,950
2014
622
$1,300,000
2015
603
$1,380,000

One place where there has been some nice action is the $700,000 – $900,000 range along the I-15 corridor.  There has been a steady stream of new product coming to market, and momentum is building as most sell within the first week (catching many sellers and agents by surprise).

When there are only a smattering of new listings like we’re having along the coast, buyers struggle with whether the pricing is real.  A few will sell here and there, but more listings would provide more comfort to buyers, one way or another.  If they see them selling, then they’d be more likely to jump in!

Posted by on Feb 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments