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Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

NSDCC Upside Potential

Jumbo mortgage rates in the threes have helped to propel our higher-end market to new heights.  Of the 854 houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad, 757 of them – or 89% – are listed over $1,000,000!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan 1 – Aug 31

Year
Total # of Sales
Sales Over $1M
Percentage of Sales Over $1M
2007
1,888
945
50%
2012
2,033
706
35%
2013
2,291
1,007
44%
2014
1,947
998
51%
2015
2,154
1,193
55%
2016
2,081
1,263
61%
2017
2,109
1,401
66%

The housing market – and its higher prices – are completely dependent upon mortgage rates staying ultra-low. Thankfully, hardly anyone needs to sell!

Here’s an interesting comparison:

The fixed-rate monthly payment on a $710,000 mortgage back in 2007 was the same as the monthly payment on a $1,000,000 mortgage today.  Yet, in spite of inflation, the San Diego Case-Shiller Index is about the same as it was in 2007!

With our prices still well under SF/LA/OC prices, and the market being flush with boomers who are retiring, we could have plenty of upside here.  The Fed is going to have to keep rates low, so as long as that happens, another 10% to 20% increase in prices is very feasible over the next five years.   Or at least until an extreme event happens, like a major earthquake, or some kook pushing the nuke button.

Look at how consistent the number of sales have been – there has been hardly any variation over the last six years (avg 2,103 sales).

This is where the stagnation would come in – prices could keep going up for the next few years, but with fewer houses selling – mostly because they don’t deserve the extra premium.

Posted by on Sep 7, 2017 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 4 comments

NSDCC August Sales

Here’s the preliminary data of detached-home sales for August between La Jolla and Carlsbad. By the time we’re done, the count should be 270 or so:

Year
# of Sales
Avg SF
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
2012
298
3,255sf
$381/sf
$865,000
77
2013
324
2,782sf
$437/sf
$953,750
40
2014
246
2,889sf
$500/sf
$1,050,000
45
2015
278
2,874sf
$470/sf
$1,030,000
44
2016
288
3,169sf
$487/sf
$1,199,500
48
2017
258
3,120sf
$554/sf
$1,250,500
47

Reader ‘just some guy’ wondered why 2-3 homes are not selling around his newer Carlsbad tract neighborhood. It’s the time of year when buyers are exhausted by how fast prices have been escalating, and they are holding out for perfection now. Historically though, we have been able to keep up the sales pace – last year we had 264 sales in September, and 274 in October!

In last month’s count above, I did take out the four duplicate sales from the CRMLS, the MLS to the north.  Note to Sandicor: Data-sharing is not the same as merging with CRMLS!

Posted by on Sep 6, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Coastal Pendings and DOM

As you scroll over previous years below, you can see that the mid-summer surge we’ve been enjoying is more uniform this year:

The median days-on-market time for last month’s detached-home sales was about the same as last July – and creeping up lately (scroll over graph):

In spite of higher prices, the number of new listings has dwindled:

It’s all good….until it isn’t!

Posted by on Aug 16, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC July 2017 Sales – Preliminary

Last month’s sales count looks like it is going to be less than previous Julys – the graph above has an extra 10% added to today’s count for late-reporters and it still comes in under the last four Julys.

Year
July # of Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
2013
297
$418/sf
$930,000
2014
271
$451/sf
$1,018,000
2015
321
$458/sf
$1,025,000
2016
270
$504/sf
$1,105,000
2017
231
$526/sf
$1,225,000

However, the May and June sales this year were outstanding – overall, the sales from the last three months measure up pretty well:

NSDCC May-July Sales

2013: 992

2014: 862

2015: 960

2016: 915

2017: 933 (plus 20-30 more to be added by late-reporters)

This year’s three-month total could be the highest since the Frenzy of 2013, which would be remarkable considering that prices are about 30% higher today!

Posted by on Aug 1, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC Year-Over-Year

In the last post we saw that the median sales price for San Diego is up 11.2% year-over-year.  Let’s check the individual areas between Carlsbad and La Jolla, using the combined May/June Y-O-Y data for larger sample sizes:

Area
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Chg
Avg $$/sf
Chg
Cardiff
15/19
$1,607,500/$1,420,000
-12%
$669/$710
+6%
Carlsbad NW
31/46
$930,000/$912,400
-2%
$432/$497
+15%
Carlsbad SE
106/128
$971,000/$1,011,500
+4%
$348/$365
+4%
Carlsbad NE
28/39
$729,500/$790,000
+8%
$345/$361
+5%
Carlsbad SW
59/61
$969,000/$1,100,000
+14%
$380/$399
+5%
Del Mar
33/30
$1,895,000/$1,850,000
-2%
$935/$826
-13%
Encinitas
104/100
$1,270,000/$1,237,500
-3%
$516/$564
+9%
La Jolla
72/76
$1,978,000/$2,309,000
+17%
$787/$879
+12%
RSF
61/56
$2,400,000/$2,260,000
-6%
$510/$482
-6%
Solana Beach
16/21
$1,210,000/$1,445,000
+19%
$642/$707
+10%
Carmel Vly
120/118
$1,123,500/$1,208,000
+8%
$409/$449
+10%
All Above
645/699
$1,200,888/$1,235,000
+3%
$502/$497
-1%

Comparing the sales counts is the best way to gauge the overall health of the market, and they are looking good in all areas.

Neither of the price metrics are that great, but in areas where both are heading in the same direction suggests a trend.

Posted by on Jul 14, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

NSDCC First Half Sales

Sales have been remarkably steady for the first half of the last three years, with only a slight variance in the sales count:

Year
# of 1H Sales
Median SP
Avg DOM
Median DOM
2012
1,477
$815,000
86
51
2013
1,670
$919,250
51
21
2014
1,430
$1,020,000
49
24
2015
1,555
$1,120,000
50
23
2016
1,523
$1,150,000
44
24
2017
1,571
$1,225,000
44
19

In the first half of 2012, there were 331 houses that sold under $600,000.

This year we had 11.

Posted by on Jul 7, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

La Jolla Open House

Glad to be back home Saturday in my favorite town of all-time, La Jolla, CA.  Please join me 1-3pm Saturday for open house at 3340 Caminito Vasto!





Zillow is supposed to be auto-uploading every listing with 60 minutes, but here we are eight hours after MLS input and my listing is still not on Zillow.  Hmmm.

Here is the red team’s link instead:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3340-Caminito-Vasto-92037/home/4883947

You may have seen that they announced today that they are going public, and those who bet the farm will be amply rewarded, not because they provide a better service, but because they offer the sexiest disruptor.

Save

Posted by on Jun 30, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, La Jolla, Listing Agent Practices, North County Coastal, Open House | 2 comments

NSDCC Market Velocity

The C.A.R. is using a new metric – market velocity, which is what we’ve used here frequently to compare monthly solds to new listings:

Market Velocity – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory – continued its upward momentum in May, suggesting that home prices should grow further in the upcoming months. It is strongly correlated with increases/decreases in price growth with a roughly three- to six-month lag time.

It’s an imperfect measurement because the new listings each month don’t necessary have a direct relationship to those sold – very few are in both categories in the same month.  But comparing the rate of change to previous months and years gives us some warning about what’s coming.

Here’s how the NSDCC market (La Jolla to Carlsbad) is shaping up:

Month
2016 Sales
Listings
S/L Ratio
2017 Sales
Listings
S/L Ratio
Jan
171
470
.36
174
393
.44
Feb
150
446
.34
171
392
.44
Mar
252
532
.47
258
506
.51
Apr
305
524
.58
277
483
.57
May
334
506
.66
343
501
.68
Jun
311
512
.61
290
375
.77

This year’s momentum has been slightly better than last year, though not by much.  We have had a fantastic week of closings too, and this month’s sales should match or exceed last year’s by the time the count is complete!

The number of new listings this month looks dramatically low, but the count should get into the mid-400s when the final count is in.  No flood of supply yet!

Posted by on Jun 29, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Spring Selling Season is Done

Typically, sales begin to taper off in July and decline for the rest of the year.

This year should be no different…..and the drop might have already begun:

NSDCC Monthly Sales, 2017

May: 343

June: 225 (as of this morning)

The last week of the month always has a flurry of closings, and we should get close to 300 by the time the last June count is done.

But the rest of the year should be a bit slushy.

Posted by on Jun 26, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 1 comment

NSDCC May Sales

The Pending Home-Sales Index dipped 3.3% last week, which helped to fuel more doomer talk (examples here and here).

People assume that if the stats don’t rise every year, then we have a problem.  But doesn’t the number of homes for sale affect the outcome?  If there are 9% fewer new listings nationally this year, then a 3.3% drop in the new pendings doesn’t sound bad.

But local is what matters – how did we do in May?

NSDCC May Sales and Pricing

Year
# of May Sales
Median SP
Avg $$/sf
Avg DOM
# of Listings 1/1-5/31
2013
362
$943,500
$416/sf
42
2,312
2014
269
$950,000
$465/sf
41
2,243
2015
297
$1,125,000
$492/sf
47
2,333
2016
334
$1,216,250
$498/sf
41
2,477
2017
334
$1,222,500
$517/sf
34
2,265

We had a year-over-year 9% drop in new listings over the first five months of 2017, yet May sales were 10% higher (and late-reporters will add more).

They are selling fast too. The median DOM (days-on-market) was 16 days, which was the same as 2013 when we were in full-tilt boogie mode. Almost half the houses sold are finding their buyer within the first two weeks!

Updated 6/10/17

Posted by on Jun 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments