NSDCC July Sales

We saw that the first-half sales were 4% under last year’s count – has it been getting worse lately?  Yes, and the high-end is where the trouble is:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, July:

Year
# Closed Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
# of Sales Over $2M
2016
312
$507/sf
$1,200,000
60
2017
363
$529/sf
$1,260,000
73
2018
299
$606/sf
$1,350,000
74
2019
273
$540/sf
$1,260,000
46
Latest YoY
-9%
-11%
-7%
-38%

We have 546 active listings of NSDCC homes priced over $2,000,000/46 = 12-month supply.

Low rates, more inventory, strong employment, and record Dow hasn’t helped much yet. But we know there’s nothing that price won’t fix!

Get Good Help!

NSDCC Sales, First Half

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales Jan 1 to June 30:

Year
Number of Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Median Days on Market
2013
1,670
$919,950
21
2014
1,430
$1,020,000
24
2015
1,560
$1,120,000
23
2016
1,526
$1,150,000
24
2017
1,595
$1,225,000
19
2018
1,420
$1,325,000
17
2019
1,371
$1,301,000
22

We saw yesterday that the number of new listings has remained steady, but it seems that buyers keep getting pickier.  First-half sales are down 4% year-over-year, and pricing is a little soft too.

But last year’s sales were down too, and if we consider the 2016 count to be the median in the group above, then this year’s first-half sales are 10% under that.

Yunnie is optimistic though:

Yun said consumer confidence about home buying has risen, and he expects more activity in the coming months. “The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates one more time this year, but there is no guarantee mortgage rates will fall from these already historically low points,” he said. “Job creation and a rise in inventory will nonetheless drive more buyers to enter the market.”

We’ll see!

NSDCC Listings, First Six Months

Bill (in Giants jersey) from the Bay Area has been reading the blog for the last ten years!

He won the earlier contest for Padres tickets, so when he and his family were here on vacation, they took in the first game of the series last night – a 13-2 shellacking by the Giants! They got on TV too:

Congrats Bill and family!

The contest was predicting how many new listings we would have in the first two months of 2019. Bill’s guess was 777, which was the third lowest of those submitted – we all thought more sellers would want to cash out at these prices!

Yesterday’s doomer was looking for the right evidence – historically, one of the first signs of trouble is a surge of inventory.  We saw it last time in the first half of 2006 when listings jumped 23% as sellers started scrambling to get out:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:

Year
Number of Listings
Median List Price
2005
2,892
$1,150,876
2006
3,547
$1,120,000
2007
3,120
$1,182,500

But still no surge here locally in 2019.

Our inventory count this year is looking normal – and 24% under the 2006 count:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Jan 1 to June 30:

Year
Number of Listings
Median List Price
2013
2,790
$1,179,000
2014
2,713
$1,120,000
2015
2,871
$1,182,500
2016
2,999
$1,425,000
2017
2,712
$1,425,000
2018
2,700
$1,499,000
2019
2,705
$1,569,000

In the first half of 2005, we had 400 sales close under $750,000, and this year we had 55.

We had 560 homes list for $2,000,000+ in the first half of 2005, and 238 closings.  This year, we had 901 listings over $2,000,000, and 298 closings!

Top 20 Cities

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At this rate, the median price in 2039 will be $2,988,000! Hat tip to Richard!

San Diego County residents who bought homes in the 90s are reaping the benefits of a hot housing market.

Homebuyers who purchased their properties 20 years ago are “sitting pretty” in 2019, according to a study by GOBankingRates.

The study ranked 15 California cities by property appreciation rates. Six of the top 10 increases were in the San Francisco area. Two Los Angeles-area cities, Santa Monica and Newport Beach, finished first and second on the list, respectively.

The only San Diego County city on the list of top 20 locations for home appreciation was Encinitas.

In 1999, the median home value in Encinitas was $343,500. The figure now stands at $1,198,000, marking a 248.8 percent increase in value over 20 years, the study reports.

The five-year rental income on an Encinitas home is $229,688, according to the study.

See our interactive map of top California housing markets for home value increases:

NSDCC May Sales

Last month we had sales and pricing move higher again – the resilience of our market is incredible!

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$-per-sf
Median DOM
2012
289
$821,000
$380/sf
36
2013
362
$943,500
$416/sf
16
2014
269
$950,000
$465/sf
20
2015
298
$1,122,500
$491/sf
22
2016
334
$1,216,250
$498/sf
24
2017
346
$1,222,500
$515/sf
17
2018
274
$1,325,000
$591/sf
18
2019
295
$1,365,000
$594/sf
19

The velocity has slowed though – maybe the pricing plateau has finally arrived?

Peak Selling Season

Here’s a visual comparison of last year’s counts of NSDCC weekly active and pending listings, and how we are doing this year.

Mortgage rates had bumped up from 4.47% in April to 4.83% in October, but the inventory kept growing too, which didn’t help.  The pendings are a better gauge than sales for showing when the buying decisions were being made, and you can see that last year, buyers started losing interest after mid-June.

The bulging inventory in the second half of 2018 also left us with an inventory hangover.  We started the year with 35% more homes on the market than the previous year, which led to a slower start in 2019.

But the weekly pendings have strengthened lately, and have been tracking about the same counts as we had in 2018 – probably due to lower rates.  Last month, the Freddie Mac average 30-year rate was 4.14%.

If rates stay the same as they are today, we really should see the season extend past June – because it got whacked last year.  But high pricing and more inventory could spoil the momentum too.

Inventory Watch

Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?

Oops, the pendings count stalled:

NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings

Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362

We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?

Want another sign?

At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.

But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.

(more…)

NSDCC Sales, Jan-Apr

The first third of 2019 has been better than expected. Sales are only 6% below the average for the last five years, and the median sales price hasn’t dropped much:

NSDCC Sales, January – April

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
# of Listings
2015
920
$1,130,000
25
1,811
2016
880
$1,124,500
24
1,978
2017
886
$1,200,000
20
1,782
2018
847
$1,316,000
17
1,702
2019
797
$1,300,000
25
1,760

A few more listings this year, but no flood, and limiting sales somewhat just because of the lack of choice. The tight supply keeps everything in check – price swings aren’t as obvious either.

NSDCC April Sales

There are more soundbites about sales and pricing being down overall, but the market for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad is hanging in there.

There was an extra business day this year, and there will be more sales reported over the next few days – if those two balance each other out, we’re only about 5% under last year’s sales count, and the pricing trend is higher:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$-per-sf
Avg. DOM
2016
307
$1,120,000
$518/sf
40
2017
279
$1,282,131
$535/sf
44
2018
272
$1,285,225
$567/sf
40
2019
257
$1,350,000
$585/sf
44

Angelo Mozilo said he never saw a soft landing, but if mortgage rates stay close to 4% and sellers can live with the same price as the last guy got, then this might be the first soft landing in history.

The selling season should hold its own, and it will be the off-season where we could see more dramatic swings due to less volume.

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