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(760) 434-5000

Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘North County Coastal’

Two Open Houses Today

2015-03-28 17.38.53

Pernilla Lindberg, above

If you have any interest in golf, or just like a good walk in the park, stop by the final round today of Kia Classic at the Aviara Golf Club in Carlsbad.

It is a challenging course, yet all but seven of the finalists are under par – and the leader, Mirim Lee, is 16-under!

We will be having open house right by the main entrance to golf, so stop by!

Mallard golf map

The single-level house at 1341 Mallard has been rejuvenated with new paint and fresh landscaping, and the price is down to $1,495,000.  Open house is 12-3pm – stop by!

1341-mallard-court-055

1341-mallard-court-027

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150007764-1341_Mallard_Ct_Carlsbad_CA_92011

We’re also having open house 12-3pm at 6337 Greenhaven, which is the lowest-priced house for sale in Bressi Ranch at $291/sf.

6337-greenhaven-drive-001_web

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150014431-6337_Greenhaven_Dr_Carlsbad_CA_92009

Posted by on Mar 29, 2015 in Interesting Houses, North County Coastal, One-Story, Thinking of Buying? | 4 comments

North SD Actives/Pendings

How ‘cooking’ is it?

In NE Carlsbad, Solana Beach, East Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos there are more houses pending than active – that’s scorching hot.

Places where the Actives-to-Pendings are better than a 2:1 ratio are doing well.

Here are the stats in different areas:

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
#2015 Solds
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Cariff
92007
18
13
6
$705,800
$609/sf
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
19
13
$770,000
$625/sf
Carlsbad SE
92009
75
53
49
$860,000
$310/sf
Carlsbad NE
92010
18
21
9
$660,000
$311/sf
Carlsbad SW
92011
34
27
20
$788,750
$362/sf
Del Mar
92014
62
19
14
$1,370,000
$583/sf
Encinitas
92024
91
59
42
$1,207,952
$463/sf
La Jolla
92037
156
51
41
$1,835,000
$774/sf
RSF
67+91
183
34
31
$2,700,000
$555/sf
Solana Bch
92075
16
25
8
$1,658,750
$816/sf
W. RB
92127
113
76
51
$988,000
$329/sf
E. RB
92128
65
70
39
$594,000
$325/sf
Rancho Pena
92129
37
54
28
$660,000
$317/sf
Carmel Vly
92130
84
54
28
$1,171,750
$394/sf
Scripps Rch
92131
43
35
20
$856,000
$300/sf
All Above
All
1,028
610
402
$938,337
$439/sf

We’re just getting started!

Posted by on Feb 23, 2015 in Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC New Listings YTD

It used to make sense that the higher prices went, the more people would sell.

But now here we are at all-time high prices, and not many are interested.  It must be due to the lack of other options – not selling looks better than selling.

New Detached-Home Listings Between Jan 1 – Feb 15

Year
# of New Listings
Median List Price
2001
783
$659,000
2002
760
$707,450
2003
827
$829,000
2004
568
$999,950
2005
632
$1,166,000
2006
890
$1,099,000
2007
777
$1,200,000
2008
758
$1,166,836
2009
706
$1,195,000
2010
663
$959,000
2011
747
$995,000
2012
620
$935,450
2013
622
$1,121,950
2014
622
$1,300,000
2015
603
$1,380,000

One place where there has been some nice action is the $700,000 – $900,000 range along the I-15 corridor.  There has been a steady stream of new product coming to market, and momentum is building as most sell within the first week (catching many sellers and agents by surprise).

When there are only a smattering of new listings like we’re having along the coast, buyers struggle with whether the pricing is real.  A few will sell here and there, but more listings would provide more comfort to buyers, one way or another.  If they see them selling, then they’d be more likely to jump in!

Posted by on Feb 21, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 6 comments

2015 Pendings By Price Range

Reader 97212 thinks that much of the Under-$800,000 inventory is graduating to higher price points, which is true.  As buyers grab what they can on the lower end, sellers will keep bumping higher.

The median list price of houses for sale from Carlsbad to La Jolla is $1,995,000, and below that it’s really been hopping.  Here are the number of new listings in 2015, and new pendings this year:

Price Category
# of New Listings, 2015
# of New Pendings, 2015
Ratio
Under-$800,000
119
103
1.2:1
$800K-$1.4M
217
134
1.6:1
$1.4 – $2.4M
153
78
2.0:1
Over-$2.4M
149
41
3.6:1

New pendings this year include properties that were listed last year. These are incredibly hot numbers in a market that has already seen 20% to 30% appreciation over the last couple of years. All it will take is for sellers to be reasonable about reading what the market will bear, and it should continue!

Posted by on Feb 17, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 1 comment

One-Story Valentine!

Here’s one of the best listings I’ve ever had – a luxury one-story coastal estate in the gated community of Bella Lago in Aviara. Open this weekend 12-3pm:

1341-mallard-court-055 1341-mallard-court-022 1341-mallard-court-027

Luxury one-story coastal estate and former model home in the prestigious gated Aviara community of Bella Lago, next to the Aviara Golf Club.. This beautiful home has features including: designer finishes, upgraded hardwood flooring, built-in cabinetry throughout, surround sound, electronic shades, water filtration system, three fireplaces, second story bonus room and backyard oasis with an outdoor fireplace, pool, spa, waterfall and putting green. Kitchen loaded with Tibetan Black Quartz from the Dalai Lama, himself. He told me “and when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness.” So you’ll have that goin’ for you, which is nice.

Posted by on Feb 11, 2015 in About Kayla, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, One-Story, Why You Should List With Jim | 7 comments

Not So Hot

It’s happening everywhere you go, and it’s in every conversation with agents – the market is buzzing with “lots of activity”.

What does that mean?  Does it mean anything?

Here’s what it means:

  • Buyers are giddy about getting a 3.75% jumbo rate.
  • Agents are giddy about driving around.
  • Sellers are giddy about selling for more than the last guy.

Sellers and agents who have lots of showings think their house is red hot, and they demand a premium – or at least they aren’t coming off their price much.

But they should be more realistic about those who aren’t offering.

If you have 10-30 showings and only 1-3 offers, it means the vast majority of buyers thought your home was over-priced.

Just because there are a lot of lookers doesn’t mean the eventual buyer will pay your price either.

Here are stats on the NSDCC closings so far this year:

Houses Closed Under $1,000,000

SP:LP = 96.3%

Average days on market: 51

Houses Closed Over $1,000,000

SP:LP = 92.5%

Average days on market: 86

Buyers want to pay a reasonable price, and those averages show that they are being patient.  Of the 192 closed sales so far in 2015, only NINE PAID OVER LIST!

All participants need to be smart about how the market works now.  You get a flood of interest in the first two weeks, and then the activity drops off to nearly zero – and those occasional showings are being used to sell the house down the street.  Be smart, read the market signals, and keep egos in check.

And Get Good Help!

SD prices15

 

Posted by on Feb 10, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 0 comments

NSDCC January Sales

Though the MLS rules require that closed sales are reported within 48 hours, there will still be some late reporters of last month’s closings.  But these medians and averages should stay about the same:

January
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg $/sf
Median DOM
#Sales <$900,000
2012
155
$760,000
$374/sf
63
97
2013
185
$845,000
$379/sf
44
103
2014
182
$1,072,500
$501/sf
41
70
2015
156
$1,216,952
$515/sf
44
49

Buyers hoping to get a cheapie in Carmel Valley or Encinitas have had an excruciating experience.  Only 14 of the 49 sales that closed under $900,000 last month were south of Carlsbad.

Posted by on Feb 5, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 7 comments

NSDCC January New Listings

We have had a remarkably consistent January the last three years, with virtually the same number of homes hitting the market.  But in 2015, the number of new listings was 11% lower than last year – in spite of the median list price rising:

January
Number of New Listings
Median List Price
2012
409
$975,000
2013
410
$1,137,500
2014
413
$1,295,000
2015
366
$1,347,500

Knowing that roughly half of these new listings were on the market last year, there aren’t many new choices for buyers. As much as common sense wants to tell us that higher prices should lure more sellers to put their home on the market, it’s not happening yet!

Posted by on Feb 3, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 8 comments

Why Sell Your House Now

Dec2014

We need more homes to sell! From the DQ:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2015/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA150114.aspx

“One month doesn’t make a trend, but December’s uptick in home sales might indicate renewed interest in housing thanks to lower mortgage rates and job growth in recent months,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “The gain came despite a continued decline in the share of homes sold to investors and cash buyers.

If demand continues to build, we’ll need more supply to keep up with it. One of the big questions hanging over the housing market is whether higher demand and home values will lead to a lot more people listing their homes for sale, as well as more new-home construction, which remains well below average.”

The ultra-low mortgage rates have gotten every buyer’s attention, and the sales are starting to reflect it – just like at the end of 2012.  If the December sales are the precursor, then we are at least looking at a frenzy-lite experience over the next few months:

NSDCC December Sales
# of Dec. Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
Avg $/sf
2010
205
$835,000
69
$388/sf
2011
220
$800,000
62
$351/sf
2012
294
$849,500
44
$402/sf
2013
211
$1,075,000
40
$485/sf
2014
243
$1,075,000
41
$486/sf

Around the NSDCC, you can sell your home for more than it has ever been worth.  But is that enough to cause people to sell?  For most people, no. We like living here, and have no place better to go.

We don’t need everyone to move.  All we need is about 10% more listings than last year, and we’ll hit full frenzy. The 2003-2004 era was the craziest frenzy of all-time, and it’s because we had more houses to sell:

Year
Number of New Listings, First Half (Jan-Jun)
2003
5,178
2004
5,162
2013
4,817
2014
4,681

In a region of 300,000 people, all we need is about 80 more houses per month to sell.  We need a few potential sellers to change their mind about selling later, and sell now instead.

If you know you are going to be selling in a few years anyway, but these ideal conditions look too good to pass up, here’s how you can justify moving now:

1.  Move before you retire.  If you were thinking about downsizing and wanted to stay local, then either buy a condo close to home, or move to the outskirts where you can still buy a home for less than $500,000 – and commute to work for a year or two.  The low-end market is much hotter, and prices moving up quicker.

2.  Sell and rent. If you know you are going to be leaving town shortly, sell when the market is red hot, and rent a beach hut for a year or two.  Yes, rents are outrageous – but your home’s sales price will be too!

3. Retire early.  You are making more money in the stock market than you are at that stinking job you can barely tolerate.  Cash out while you can!

4.  Sell and move when you are healthy.  If you’ve been in the same home for more than 10 years, you have a lot of stuff to sort through – physically, mentally, and emotionally.  It is much easier when you have your health.

5.  Move up when rates are low.  Obviously, if you are moving up and financing the next purchase, these low rates are advantageous.

6.  Sell before rates go up.  Remember that in June 2013, that mortgage rates moved back into the mid-4% range on a rumor that the Fed was going to tighten – which they never did.  It won’t take much to pull this punch bowl.

Historically, the market has been a ten-year cycle, and the SD trough this time was April 2009.  It got dragged out longer in the 2005-2007 era by Angelo’s nutty no-doc financing, and today’s low rates might extend the party a while longer.  But it isn’t going to last forever, and mortgage rates will go up before the Fed does anything.

Once mortgage rates go up, buyers will expect lower prices, and we saw prices stall out much of last year.  But do you want to sell for less?  Not until you test the market for a year or two, and by then, buyers will be in control.

Contact me today for a free consultation!  jim@jimklinge.com

Posted by on Jan 16, 2015 in Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

NSDCC Annual Sales

How did 2014 stack up to previous years?

Year
No. of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
2002
3,717
$630,000
38
2003
3,932
$732,500
34
2004
3,363
$948,000
27
2005
3,014
$1,000,000
40
2006
2,626
$985,000
51
2007
2,479
$1,000,000
49
2008
2,037
$890,000
54
2009
2,223
$817,000
52
2010
2,461
$830,000
46
2011
2,562
$825,000
57
2012
3,154
$830,000
46
2013
3,218
$952,250
25
2014
2,838
$1,025,000
28

A.  Look at the similarities between the median SP in 2003-2005, and the last three years.  In both cases, the frenzy caused a large increase one year, followed by a smaller jump the next year.  It then plateaued in 2006 and 2007, in spite of the easiest credit ever.  I think we can expect a similar plateau-like event in pricing.

B.  In 2014, we had 3% fewer listings, but 12% fewer sales than in 2013.  The pricing strategies being employed are less effective than before.

C.  Over the last two years, more than half of the sales occurred within the first month the house was on the market.

Expect more of the same this year!

Posted by on Jan 13, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Same-House Sales | 3 comments