Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?
Oops, the pendings count stalled:
NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings
1st Week of April
2nd Week of April
3rd Week of April
4th Week of April
5th Week of April
1st Week of May
2nd Week of May
We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?
Want another sign?
At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.
But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.
There are more soundbites about sales and pricing being down overall, but the market for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad is hanging in there.
There was an extra business day this year, and there will be more sales reported over the next few days – if those two balance each other out, we’re only about 5% under last year’s sales count, and the pricing trend is higher:
# of Sales
Angelo Mozilo said he never saw a soft landing, but if mortgage rates stay close to 4% and sellers can live with the same price as the last guy got, then this might be the first soft landing in history.
The selling season should hold its own, and it will be the off-season where we could see more dramatic swings due to less volume.
Mortgage rates have continued their slide, and lenders should be offering fixed-rate loans with rates starting in the threes again, with little or no points! The new pendings are flowing, but we still haven’t seen a flood of new listings:
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales in March
The latest numbers are month-to-date, and will increase considerably with four business days to go. But the March sales will end up well under last year’s count, though the lower rates should help boost sales in April and May.
There are threes on the street:
For those who want to prepare for making an offer and would like to review our contracts, the California Association of Realtors have made available a sample copy with explanations:
Yesterday, the C.A.R. released the statewide January results, with more speculation from our so-called leaders:
California home sales fall to lowest level in more than 10 years
– Existing, single-family home sales totaled 357,730 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 3.9 percent from December and down 12.6 percent from January 2018.
– January’s statewide median home price was $538,690, down 3.4 percent from December and up 2.1 percent from January 2018.
– Statewide active listings rose for the 10th straight month, increasing 27 percent from the previous year.
– The statewide Unsold Inventory Index was 4.6 months in January, up from 3.5 months in December.
“California continued to move toward a more balanced market as we see buyers having greater negotiating power and sellers making concessions to get their homes sold as inventory grows,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “While interest rates have dropped down to the lowest point in 10 months, potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold as they wait out further price adjustments.”
The statewide median home price declined to $538,690 in January. The January statewide median price was down 3.4 percent from $557,600 in December and up 2.1 percent from a revised $527,780 in January 2018.
“While we expected the federal government shutdown during most of January to temporarily interrupt closings because of a delay in loan approvals and income verifications, the impact on January’s home sales was minimal,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The decline in sales was more indicative of demand side issues and was broad and across all price categories and regions of the state. Moreover, growing inventory over the past few months has not translated into more sales.”
Obviously, they haven’t done a survey of the North San Diego County’s coastal region! Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, we had about the same number of January sales last month as we did in January, 2018, so we’re faring much better than the -12.6% statewide. We are further into February so let’s pick up the sales from the first half, and break it down by price category too:
NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales, Jan 1 to Feb. 15th
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2.0M
The only two signs of trouble:
The Under-$1M market is disappearing.
If you want to buy a house priced over $2,000,000, you sure have plenty to consider! Those sellers are happy to wait it out too, so no rush.
Other than those, we have remarkable balance, and it doesn’t look like ‘potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold’ around here!
"Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community... more "
by Ann Romanello
"Jim educated us, helped us find the perfect house, and then negotiated us a great deal. I would hate to be sitting across the negotiating table from ... more "
"Jim is thorough and will be brutally honest about the homes he shows you. He provides great service and follows through until the very end and even ... more "
"I highly recommend Jim as a buyer’s agent. Working with Jim, we closed this week on a San Diego condo. Jim prepared a list of comparable sales to ... more "