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Just the fact that so many more higher-end sales are closing these days is noteworthy, the NSD County Coastal sales of detached $1,000,000+ homes have increased 55% on a year-over-year comparison (and if you take out La Jolla, the others increased a total of 79%!)

Let’s chart the $1,000,000-plus market. Here are the number of active and pending detached listings, the 2009 and 2010 closed sales between Jan. 1 and March 10th, and the number of trustee sales YTD of SFRs that have a Foreclosureradar value of at least $1,000,000:

Sales are healthier, how does pricing compare?

Price will fix anything!

Hymettus is one of the more prominent streets in Leucadia, but there haven’t been any sales there since summer. So two older sales on Hymettus are included, the first closed in July, 2009, and the second was January, 2009:

I hesitated with the first story, but it demonstrates how a life-changing event at the wrong time can be very costly.

A few more recent sales around Carmel Valley, and how they compared to model-match sales at peak:

Hat tip to Steve for sending this biomed/VC article along:

How has San Diego’s biomedical industry, arguably the region’s key economic sector, been weathering the downturn, and what’s its outlook for the future?

According to a recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) and the California Healthcare Institute (CHI), the industry has suffered along with the rest of the economy, but remains resilient.  Nevertheless, storm clouds loom on the horizon, especially in the form of regulatory and reimbursement issues.

For several years, PWC has partnered with CHI, which advocates on behalf of the Golden State’s biomed industry, to produce the annual study.  It reveals that, in San Diego, venture capital has fallen from a recent high of $1.9 billion in 2007 to $900 million in 2009—a 50 percent decrease that’s slightly worse than the national and statewide fall in seed money.  A similar drop-off occurred in investments directed specifically at life science ventures.

Unsurprisingly, though, San Diego far outpaces the rest of the state in investments in biomedical companies as a percentage of total venture funding.  Unlike in Silicon Valley, where only a quarter of every seed dollar goes to life sciences, the proportion here is more than two-thirds.  Statewide, the computer (hardware, software, and services) industry employs about as many people as the life sciences sector, both of which dwarf any other industry in California.

But perhaps most encouraging is that nearly two-thirds of all venture investments in San Diego are in startup or early stages, far exceeding the national average and auguring positive future developments here.

***************************************************

This article has San Diego ranked seventh in the nation for venture capital:

METRO AREAS BY RANK
RankMetro AreaScore
1. San Francisco 5.50%
2. Seattle 2.71%
3. Austin 1.83%
4. Boston 1.53%
5. Raleigh-Durham 1.35%
6. Denver 1.20%
7. San Diego 1.01%
8. Grand Rapids 0.49%
9. Washington 0.44%
10. Portland 0.43%
11. Atlanta 0.42%
12. Minneapolis 0.42%
13. Los Angeles 0.36%
14. Orlando 0.34%
15. St. Louis 0.34%
16. New York 0.33%
17. Las Vegas 0.30%
18. Miami 0.29%
19. Rochester 0.29%
20. Nashville 0.24%
21. Chicago 0.23%
22. Philadelphia 0.23%
23. Phoenix 0.22%
24. Dallas 0.20%

Here’s a tour of Derby Hill, the Pardee tract of big bombers south of the 56 freeway. In the MLS remarks of the only model listed, it said that the furniture did not convey. The house across the street (towards the end of video) that’s mentioned as pending, listed for $1,449,000, had multiple offers and just closed escrow a couple of days ago – full price:

The recent Mustang Ridge resales on video:

A. The $1,337,500 was 2% under price the seller had paid, but buyers’ were represented by father who may have kicked in commission.

B. The $1,335,000 was $100,000 over what seller paid in March, 2007.

C. The $1,449,000 was $6,000 under what seller paid in March, 2007.

Yes, they had paid for improvements during their stay, plus closing costs.

What is the difference between peak pricing and today? 

Many considered that 2006 was the peak of the market in 92130, here is a youtube tour of a few recent sales, and how they compared to previous comps:

Hat tip to Rob who sent this in:

SAN DIEGO — The safest place to live in San Diego includes parts of Rancho Peñasquitos and Carmel Valley, according to a new study by a private company.

NeighborhoodScout, a company that specializes in helping families and businesses make relocation decisions, took a variety of crime data from the nation’s 50 largest cities and came up with a ranking of 1 to 100, with 100 being the best score. It recently posted an article on WalletPop.com that scored Rancho Peñasquitos/Carmel Valley at 97. The chance of becoming a victim of crime in the area — which included ZIP codes 92130, 92129 and 92121 — was listed as 1 in 769.

Data included reports from local agencies and the FBI and looked at violent and property crimes, including murder, rape, theft and burglary. According to the study, the nation’s average crime index is 50. The company’s Web site said the area around and west of Carmel Mountain and Black Mountain roads is in the top 15 percent of the nation’s wealthiest communities and has a median home value of $746,668.

A youtube tour of recent detached sales in Carlsbad:

Our old friend Zach Fox has moved on to more illustrious things than the NC Times, he now works for a big-time financial publication back east.

But he hasn’t forgotten us little guys, especially the data geeks:

Jim,
 
We’re finally sending out some free links as we move toward getting our brand more to the public and not just Wall Street. I thought these stories might interest you and was hoping to piggy back on your ever-growing fame:
 
I got an update on that infamous Credit Suisse ARM reset chart, along with some interesting speculation from Greg McBride at Bankrate:
 
http://www.snl.com/interactivex/article.aspx?CDID=A-10770380-12086
 
I also thought this piece by one of our banking/insurance gurus was interesting. It runs through responses to FDIC’s securitization reform:
 
http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?CDID=A-10788544-11055
 
Also, here is our bare-bones free site that has some TARP info. News is on the left-hand side, let me know if you see any links you can’t click on and would like to check out:
http://www.snl.com/Sectors/Financial-Institutions/FIG/Home/Tarp.aspx
 
 
Best,
Zach

Worm brought up some valid concerns about our future, and how certain events could impact the real estate market.  Anyone considering a move should seriously consider any and all potential hazards, so let’s examine.  My comments are in italics:

1.  The Fed quits buying mortgages at the end of March. Interest rates go up a half percent.

Buyers should tolerate up to 6%, with home pricing likely to reflect impact of rates over 6%, but not dollar-for-dollar (sellers slow to react).

2.  Option Arm begin to hit the market. That will do wonder for comps.

Very  few neg-ams in area (less than 10%), and we could use the extra inventory.

3.  We go into a double dip recession this fall.

Local market weathered the first dip pretty well, and buyers are impatient.

4.  China economy burst. That will take down all of Asia. Tall office building still being built in Shanghai with a current 50% vacancy.

The Chinese will have to learn to adjust all previous assumptions, just like in USA.

5.  A blow up the the 60 trillion derivative market.

Will make for sexy headlines, but as long as there are mortgages, buyers will shrug it off.  Fed to rescue.

6.  Banks this time don’t get a bailout because the American people are mad about their conduct in the past year.

After all we’ve been through, we’re numb.  Will the masses riot? Support a renegade politician? Not likely that a renegade could get traction due to media collusion with mainstream politicians.

7.  Home prices continue to decline like they did in Japan for fifteen years.

I could name several areas that already have houses selling for more than what they were selling for 12-18 months ago.

8.  Buyers go back to buying houses 3 to 4 times their yearly income.

Already there, due to more stringent underwriting guidelines and big down payments being utilized. 

9.  Banks acquired too much shadow inventory and have to put more houses on the market than the market can handle.

Very few REO properties currently, and gov’t programs stretching out timeline nicely.

10.  Asteroid hitting earth.

Highly concentrated disasters will have big impact on that area only, hopefully not here!

This list is a start, but for every concern there are several possibilities of how it could turn out.  Take a look at all options, and decide for yourself what course of action is within your comfort zone. 

The general complaint/argument that the government is propping up the market will apply to the MBS-purchasing, and as they turn off the spigot over the next six months we’ll see the impact, if any.  CR expects a mortgage rate increase of 3/8 to 1/2%, and I think buyers will live with mortgages under 6%.  The loan-mod madness is here to stay, and will prolong the insanity, and while that may be infuriating, there’s not much you can do about it except not participate.