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jim@jimklinge.com


Category Archive: ‘Market Conditions’

SD is 8th Hottest in America

Hat tip to Richard!

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-10-housing-markets-for-sellers-in-2017-2017-2/

Housing markets in the western part of the United States remain hot. Data released on Tuesday by brokerage firm Zillow showed eight of the 10 hottest US markets are located west of the Mississippi River. Additionally, five of the markets are within the state of California.

“The overall recovery has been more robust in many coastal markets, especially on the west coast, with fast home value appreciation, strong job growth and solid income gains,” Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell said. “Many of these markets are also experiencing above-average housing demand coupled with limited inventory, putting sellers in the driver’s seat.”

Posted by on Feb 14, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 0 comments

C.A.R. Economist is Positive

Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist, California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), recently delivered her annual “2017 Housing Market Perspectives” presentation to a group of local REALTOR® members.

“It may be a bumpy ride, but I believe there will be enough sales in San Diego County in 2017 for everyone to have a great year,” she said. “San Diego is outperforming the state and California is outperforming the nation. Although 2017 started with a bang with higher consumer confidence, there is still uncertainty and wildcards in such areas as trade, healthcare, immigration, federal funding and interest rates. An economic boost is good for housing in the short run, but some federal policies could exacerbate affordability problems.”

Under President Trump, proposals include an economic stimulus package and tax reform. Appleton-Young said the $550 billion planned in infrastructure investments over 10 years to rebuild highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals will boost economic growth and create more jobs.

“At full employment, wages will start to rise and wage growth will typically be passed on to consumers, which means the potential for higher inflation,” she said. “Unemployment rates are near an eight-year low. More jobs will mean more housing demand and upward pressure on home prices. Affordability will remain an issue and we shouldn’t expect much in terms of new supply.”

Appleton-Young also said overhauling the current tax code will create more demand for housing at a time when supply already is tight. She said Mr. Trump has proposed reducing the top tax rates for individuals from 39.5 percent to 33 percent and for corporations from 35 percent to 15 percent, as well as eliminating tax brackets from seven to three. Additional planned tax reform measures include a child care deduction, eliminate federal estate and gift taxes and tax breaks to manufacturers for plant and equipment expansion.

“The mortgage interest deduction (MID) will remain intact, although a smaller MID incentive could threaten ownership,” Appleton-Young said. “The MID is good for people’s pocket books. Historically, people don’t save unless they have a home.”

In addition, reforms to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are likely under a Trump administration, said Appleton-Young. “Banks will loosen lending standards, increase mortgage options and lower the credit score requirements,” she said.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates only once in 2016, Appleton-Young said, but rates could increase three or four times in 2017, pushing mortgage interest rates as high as 4.5 percent or 5 percent for a typical home loan. Historically, when mortgage rates increased, the percentage of California households able to afford to buy a home dropped from 34 percent in 2010 to 21 percent by the end of 2016, and monthly mortgage payments increased from $1,740 to $2,609 in the same time period.

Appleton-Young also offered a caution to REALTORS® about posting political statements on social media because some potential clients might reject a REALTOR® based on their political leanings. Good questions to ask before political-related posting: Do I have the correct facts? Does this need to be said? Why do I need to be the person to say this? Could I be misunderstood? What are my motives for saying this? Can this wait until tomorrow when I might be thinking in a clearer manner?

Prior to her group presentation, Appleton-Young met privately with a group of brokers who noted an ongoing trend in higher monthly rents for apartment living. A recent report shows San Diego has the fifth highest apartment rental rate in the state, with a typical one-bedroom unit going for $1,530 a month. The report by Apartment List, an online rental marketplace, found that local rents grew 0.1 percent in January, which is 1.9 percent higher than a year ago. San Diego is still lower than other rents in the state. Rents are highest in San Francisco, where a one-bedroom runs $3,420 a month, followed by San Jose at $2,110, Oakland at $2,000 and Los Angeles at $1,870. The U.S. renter population is about 44 million households or 37 percent of all households in the nation. Apartment List’s data is drawn monthly from millions of listings nationwide on its site.

Also in the brokers meeting, it was noted that U.S. News & World Report recently revealed its “Best Places to Live in the U.S. in 2017” list of top 25 metro areas that offer the best combination of jobs, desirability, cost of living, quality of life and more. San Diego is ranked #22. “What San Diego lacks in affordability, as one of the most expensive metro areas on the list, it makes up for desirability,” the magazine said. “San Diego’s beautiful beaches and laid-back vibe make many Americans wish they lived there.” The top 5 places were: Fayetteville, Ark. (#5); Washington, D.C. (#4); San Jose, Calif. (#3); Denver (#2); Austin, Tex. (#1).

Appleton-Young directs the activities of C.A.R.’s Member Information team. She oversees the analysis of housing market and brokerage industry trends, broker relations and membership development activities. She also is closely involved in the Association’s strategic planning efforts and is a well-known speaker in California’s real estate community. She earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of California Berkeley and a master’s degree from the University of Pennsylvania. C.A.R. is a statewide trade organization with more than 180,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.

Posted by on Feb 12, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 2 comments

San Diego County Detached-Homes

Tom asked for some thoughts on the county-wide market!  Though we had a few more listings in 2016 than in recent years, the closed sales were the highest of the last three years – and within 1,000 of the frenzied 2013 total.

San Diego County Detached-Home Listings and Sales

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median LP
Median SP
SP:LP
2013
33,077
24,910
$459,990
$455,000
98.9%
2014
33,752
22,101
$499,999
$495,000
99.0%
2015
33,040
23,733
$539,000
$529,000
98.1%
2016
34,015
23,943
$569,000
$560,000
98.4%

The SP:LP ratio is down slightly, but for the median sales price to be within 1.6% of the median list price on 23,943 sales is pretty remarkable – especially when the median sales price has risen 23% since 2013!

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Posted by on Feb 7, 2017 in Frenzy, Market Conditions, Sales and Price Check, Tom Tarrant | 0 comments

More Spring Selling Season Preview

Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0.  When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!

NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Ratio
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
2.71
Feb 4, 2017
758
309
2.45

For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!

Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:

February 1, 2016

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
18
2
9.00
$1,847,500
Carlsbad NW
92008
33
14
2.36
$1,199,900
Carlsbad SE
92009
76
35
2.17
$1,110,000
Carlsbad NE
92010
12
15
0.80
$744,950
Carlsbad SW
92011
37
20
1.85
$1,199,999
Del Mar
92014
53
15
3.53
$2,875,000
Encinitas
92024
67
40
1.68
$1,674,900
La Jolla
92037
160
38
4.21
$2,972,500
RSF
92067
199
26
7.65
$3,195,000
Solana Bch
92075
24
10
2.40
$1,872,500
Carmel Vly
92130
109
39
2.79
$1,299,900
All Above
All
788
254
3.10
$2,165,000

Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season!  Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!

February 4, 2017

Area
Zip Code
ACT
PEND
Ratio
Median LP of ACT
Cardiff
92007
13
7
1.86
$1,595,000
Carlsbad NW
92008
32
18
1.78
$1,146,500
Carlsbad SE
92009
70
51
1.37
$1,169,500
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
15
1.00
$859,000
Carlsbad SW
92011
31
20
1.55
$1,159,000
Del Mar
92014
54
17
3.18
$2,849,500
Encinitas
92024
74
37
2.00
$1,772,500
La Jolla
92037
151
35
4.31
$3,295,000
RSF
92067
194
43
4.51
$3,330,500
Solana Bch
92075
20
5
4.00
$2,075,000
Carmel Vly
92130
64
55
1.16
$1,731,250
All Above
All
758
309
2.45
$2,435,990

Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick | 0 comments

Bidding-War Report

I am fortunate and grateful to have a group of home buyers willing to make offers during the off-season.  To give you a feel of what to expect ahead, here are the results of offers made since December 18th:

Purchase-offers submitted: 11

Bidding wars: 9

Bidding wars won: 3

My buyers tend to prefer the premium properties, so no surprise that other buyers would also be interested.  But to have multiple offers on 9 out of 11 properties during a historically quieter time in the market probably means that the selling season will be raucous and highly competitive – and it starts Monday!

I usually have a better win ratio with bidding wars, but we strive to get the right discount for fixers.  Today’s frustrated buyers make hasty offers without properly assessing the cost of repairs needed, and once the bidding war breaks out, they end up paying too much just to win a house.

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Posted by on Feb 1, 2017 in About the author, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent | 3 comments

NSDCC January Sales

Yesterday we saw that the number of new NSDCC listings this month was well under previous Januarys, which could impact sales.  When sales go down, we usually think it’s a precursor to prices falling, but sales could decline just because there aren’t enough houses to sell.

Can we make assumptions about who is selling, and who isn’t?

It is easy to not sell, and stay on the sidelines. You can avoid spending big money on home improvements, closing costs, and new furniture, and you don’t have to sort through your junk, which is a big plus.

It has to mean that the lower-motivated, casual sellers are the ones who aren’t listing their houses for sale, which is great.  It is better for everyone in the market to only have to deal with those who really want and need to sell.

What it should mean is that sales will keep up.

NSDCC January Sales

Year
Number of Sales
Cost-per-SF
Median SP
Avg DOM
2013
185
$379/sf
$845,000
69
2014
182
$501/sf
$1,045,500
60
2015
165
$507/sf
$1,218,000
73
2016
168
$557/sf
$1,093,500
53
2017
140 (so far)
$537/sf
$1,197,500
53

Last year we had 14 sales on the last business day of the month, and if we add another 10% for late-reporters, we are going to surpass the 168 sales we had last January. This is the first group of buyers to be hit by the abrupt rate increase, and yet they kept buying.

There is one more business day this year, compared to 2016.  But just to be in the same ballpark as last year is fantastic, given rates are about 3/8% higher than last January, and the Trumpinator is providing major distractions.

Posted by on Jan 31, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal | 5 comments

Ridic

I had a buyer refer to our market as ‘ridic’, and the point is painfully obviously to anyone who has been looking to purchase a new home for months or years – the pricing seems to get more ridiculous every day.

Today’s goal is to buy the least-ridiculously-priced home!

In the last post, you could see that the government may have some ideas, but they won’t be implementing any effective relief measures for a while – if ever.

What can buyers do?

You have two choices:

  1.  Go up in price.
  2.  Compromise.

For those who have resources, going up in price is probably the easiest way to solve the problem.  Add more down payment, get a co-signer, have the seller buydown your rate, or buy more lotto tickets!

Tip for self-employed:  You can qualify for a Freddie Mac loan with one-year’s tax return.  You are getting ready to file your 2016 returns now – bite the bullet and don’t include so many write-offs this year!

The thought of compromise makes every buyer cringe – Chris Rock says that women don’t like to go backwards in lifestyle, but try to give it a shot.  A smaller home, yard, garage, or fewer other features may be worth it to stay in the same area.  Or widen the target area – consider going farther out.

There are elementary schools rated a 10 in several areas:

We know the elementary schools in the Del Mar School District (Del Mar and Carmel Valley) are all rated a 10, but they are among some pricey real estate.  But there are other ’10’ rated elementary schools in the Solana Beach and Encinitas school districts, and here are four ’10’ rated elementary schools in Carlsbad too, where, if you don’t mind driving 5-6 more exits up the 5, you money goes further!

For those who prefer no maintenance, buying a pimped-out condo or townhouse might be a better choice than an older house!

I think we could see the move-up market come alive with people who bought a temporary residence.  If you have more horsepower coming your way in a few years, buy something that will last you for now, and get the forever home later!

I’m happy to discuss your situation, and help you find solutions!

My cell phone is (858) 997-3801, call or text!

Posted by on Jan 25, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Thinking of Buying?, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent | 1 comment

Trump and Local Real Estate

The inauguration is almost here – Trump will be your president on Friday!

How will he affect our local real estate market?

His detractors are aghast over his tweets, but Trump keeps them coming.  In spite of their bombastic nature, I think we are already numb to his tweets, or at least getting used to them being part of the landscape.

At this point, I don’t think the Trump Effect will have much, if any, impact on us – positive or negative.  If rates stay under 5% (today’s 30Y is 4.12%), buyers should shrug it off and keep buying.

I also think sellers and agents are getting smarter about price, which will help tremendously.  As you saw in the previous post, they might screw it up a bit once they hit the market, but eventually buyers and sellers should both be happy with a modest appreciation rate of 2% to 4% this year.

The #1 thing that should keep our market stable is the buyers’ focus on getting the right house for the long-term.  Before the 2007 downturn, buyers thought they could always sell for a gain, and, as a result, any house would work for the short-term.  But after our so-called ‘crisis’, we recognize prices can go down – but it only hurts if you sell.

Sales and prices may bounce around, but with the focus on the long-term as a foundation, our market should keep cooking.

Posted by on Jan 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 6 comments

One-Story vs. Two-Story

This tends to be a blog for analytical folks, so let’s further dissect the market stats to assist in making better comparisons and decisions about home buying and selling.

We’ve discussed how the supply and demand for one-story homes is quite different from the staired variety.  Older folks are hanging onto their single-levels so the supply is lower, and with 76 million baby-boomers heading into retirement with bad knees and arthritis, the demand is growing.

Our MLS imposes a cap on the number of listings for research at 650.  So I broke down the numbers below into price categories to help demonstrate the differences in pricing between one-story homes, and not-one-story (two-story, three-story, four-story, split-level, and other):

Pricing of NSDCC Annual Sales Between $1,000,000 – $1,400,000

Year
One-Story Avg $$/sf
Non-One-Story Avg $$/sf
2013
$586/sf
$381/sf
2014
$616/sf
$407/sf
2015
$612/sf
$389/sf
2016
$638/sf
$389/sf

Pricing of NSDCC Annual Sales Between $1,400,000 – $1,800,000

Year
One-Story Avg $$/sf
Non-One-Story Avg $$/sf
2013
$661/sf
$468/sf
2014
$693/sf
$468/sf
2015
$701/sf
$466/sf
2016
$710/sf
$478/sf

It’s probably not a big surprise to anyone reading this that one-story homes are more popular. But let’s note two important points:

  1.  One-story homes are carrying the load, statistically – their pricing is appreciating at a steady clip, while the pricing of two-story homes has been flat as a pancake.
  2.  Only use one-story comps to valuate the single-level homes, and likewise, only use two-story comps to put a price on a two-story home.  The pricing of one-story homes is so much higher that, if included in a two-story analysis, they will skew the pricing artificially higher.

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Posted by on Jan 10, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, One-Story | 2 comments