San Diego County has very little chance of a big housing downturn but also isn’t exactly the most secure market in the nation, according to a new report.
Out of 580 counties, San Diego County was the No. 180 most likely to experience a downturn, said a study from Irvine-based real estate researchers Attom. It used a variety of factors to determine the rankings, including foreclosures, percentage of homes underwater, income-to-cost ratio and local unemployment numbers.
The counties with the biggest chance of a downturn were in inland California and areas around Chicago and New York City. San Joaquin County, home to cities Stockton and Lodi, was considered the most likely spot in the nation for a downturn, Attom said. In that area of California at the end of 2023, it took 65 percent of income to pay for a home, unemployment was among the highest in the state at 6.4 percent, 7.5 percent of buyers were in homes that cost more than they were now worth and other factors.
Broken down by the 20 most-populated counties, San Diego County ranked 12th most likely for a downturn. Kings County, home to Brooklyn, was most likely and Miami-Dade County the least likely.
Here’s how San Diego County compared to the rest of the nation:
The blip in active listings over the last week isn’t too concerning and could just be from the weather.
The count of active listings is a good indicator of the demand though. During the mega-frenzy conditions from late-2020 through early-2022, you can see that the new listings were being gobbled up as quickly as they came on the market, and there was no build-up of the supply. Last year, the demand was hot enough in the early months that the active-listing counts were fairly flat too.
If this year’s count of active listings surges above 400, it will mean that we are exiting the frenzy days, and the market’s normalization is underway.
It is subject to the overall number of listings, and I’ll reuse yesterday’s chart to show the flow:
NSDCC Listings and Sales, Jan 1 – Feb 15
The total number of listings in 2024 is still in the frenzy range.
It’s the number of active listings that help demonstrate the velocity of the demand. Are they being gobbled up as fast as they hit the market like in recent years, leaving the number of actives fairly steady? Or are the actives starting to pile up, like they used to do? (see the 2019 green line in graph at top)
This is how we will know where the Spring Selling Season is going.
Buyers already have reason to be cautious and wait patiently because Powell opened his big yap and said he was going to lower his rate THREE times in 2024.
If the active listings break out of the frenzy range and start stacking up unsold, it will be irresistible for buyers to wait longer to see if sellers capitulate on price, while hoping rates might come down too.
Want to know where the market is going? Just watch the number/trend of the active listings!
It’s a new year and many, including Zillow economists, are optimistic. After a year in which almost half of agents reported selling one home or less, optimism is a valuable tool. To that end, there are a few major macroeconomic tailwinds that might fuel the early months of 2024:
The job market remains strong.
Despite a couple of blips in January, inflation continues to trend toward the 2% target rate.
The Fed has signaled that benchmark rates were likely at or near their peak while hinting at rate cuts.
Benchmark rate cuts can mean mortgage rate softening. Mortgage rate softening means more sellers loosen their grip on rate lock. Taken together, these trends drive a healthier housing market.
That’s the glass-half-full picture. Now let’s take a deeper look at a few trends.
More homeowners want to sell
Twenty-one percent of homeowners are considering selling within the next three years, according to Zillow research from December. That’s up 15% year over year.
Here are some of the most common reasons why:
Tech jobs, long-distance movers are spreading out from traditional hubs
A Zillow analysis of United Van Lines data shows that long-distance movers are heading to metro areas that are less expensive and have less competition from other home buyers.
“Housing affordability is reshaping migration trends. Buyers are moving where homes are more affordable and where there’s less competition,” says Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy. “Affordability remains the biggest challenge for most homebuyers today. Helping them navigate it by pointing them to a loan officer first is key. It’s even more crucial if they’re new to the area.”
Out are states like New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Illinois, Michigan, and California. Top destinations include Charlotte (Zillow’s hottest market prediction for 2023), Providence, Indianapolis, Orlando, and Raleigh.
Additionally, a recent Brookings report found that tech jobs are spreading out. Traditionally concentrated in hubs like San Francisco, Seattle, and New York, tech employment is branching out to new “rising star” metros. Since 2020, cities like Dallas, Austin, Denver, Miami, Nashville and Salt Lake City are pulling larger shares of tech work.
The study found that this phenomenon was already underway, but that the pandemic, remote work, and high mortgage rates likely accelerated it.
Takeaway: Cities and states gaining workers are almost all more affordable than the traditional tech hubs. Out-of-town leads in these rising star metros may have healthy incomes and be looking to view upper-tier buys.
While rent growth slows in many markets, concessions are up
Rent growth is slowing in many major metros and rents are even falling in a few. Nationally, rents are still up 3.3% from a year ago, but they dipped (0.2% from the previous month). Forty-five of the 50 largest metro areas have seen annual increases.
Annual rent increases are highest in Cincinnati (7.1%), Providence (7.1%), Hartford (7.1%), Buffalo (6.3%), and Louisville (6.1%).
Rents fell month over month in 32 of the 50 largest metro areas. The largest drops are in Jacksonville (-0.8%), San Diego (-0.7%), New York (-0.6%), Denver (-0.6%), and Austin (-0.6%).
Rental concessions, like free months of rent or free parking, have surged unexpectedly. In December, 32.7% of rentals on Zillow offered at least one concession. That’s up just 0.7 percentage points from November but 10.1 percentage points from last year. This rise is especially prevalent in cities like Oklahoma City and Memphis, which each saw a 4 percentage point increase from November to December.
Takeaway: Leads may be weighing another lease before a purchase. But equity starts when you buy. Those who plan to live in their new home for long enough can start building that equity now, and most experts agree that significant rate drops won’t happen anytime soon.
La Costa Valley (1,073 single-family homes) Annual Sales:
The new rule about getting profits tax-free went into effect in 1997, and it motivated people to move! The sales history of this house is an example of how it used to be – make a little money and be on your way:
But over the last 10-12 years, people stopped moving so much. Any of the original LCV homeowners were already empty-nesting, so it wasn’t the kids that kept them from moving. Rates were coming down a bit, and refinancing made it a little more affordable – and there wasn’t anywhere else to move locally that was better than what they had already.
Some may have thought that the 2007 buyer got left holding the bag. But he’s now listed for $2,085,000!
There have only been 83 NSDCC sales recorded in December, 2023, which means we may not make it to 100 closings. January isn’t looking too good either, and from what I can find, we’ve never had less than 100 monthly sales, let alone in back-to-back months. But it’s coming.
It puts the squeeze on everyone.
Buyers lose faith that there will be more homes to consider and end up jumping at one. Sellers either think they can get away with any price and tack on an extra 5% to 10% over the comps from 2021….or they give up altogether and decide to wait until the market “gets better”.
Even with a little extra inventory, the market is going to look and feel uncertain. Is it going up or down?
When we are having the fewest sales ever, the the evidence is thin, and the results vary!
NSDCC December Sales Under $4,000,000:
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+OVER their list price: 12
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+UNDER their list price: 17
Mortgage rates have come down 1% in the last few weeks, and the casual observers are hoping it means that the Big Turnaround will commence in the Spring of 2024.
But for a full-fledged frenzy to break out, home prices would have to drop too.
We’ll never learn much from the median sales prices by themselves. But the SP:LP ratios demonstrate the off-season trend of buyers driving harder bargains, which is the solution for lower prices too.
We’re probably not going to see the whole market drop in price (i.e., big dips in the median sales prices) because the superior properties should hold their value better with the impatient buyers.
But those who don’t need the perfect house will likely have better luck next year with getting a deal. We only flirted with an over-list frenzy briefly this year, and in 2024 we not see many, if any, 100% months.
Having 2,218 new detached and attached listings in a county of 3.3 million people is anemic. There were 4,198 new listings in October, 2019.
But it doesn’t look like we need any more – those on the market aren’t selling like before. In fact, the unsolds are starting to stack up now, which is the #1 fear for sellers:
It’s showing here too:
These are the more typical market pressures we would see in a normalizing market. The sellers are losing some of their pricing power, and buyers think that most of the current offerings just aren’t worth it.
Currently buyers are having to pay 2x or 3x the previous bill for homeowners insurance, due to the lack of options because the big insurance companies have stopped writing policies in California. Some are blaming climate change, and guys like Carl Demaio are blaming Biden, but with a little digging it looks like the insurance-companies requests to raise premiums have been stalled for years. California’s average home insurance rate is $1,225 per year for $250,000 in dwelling coverage is about 14% lower than the US average, according to Bankrate. The thought of insurance premiums being 30% higher sure sounds better than 2x or 3x!
Full story from the LAT:
After a summer that saw many of California’s top home insurers pull back from the state market, Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara announced Thursday that he struck a deal with the insurance industry to encourage new coverage in the state.
Insurers, Lara said, agreed to return to the high-risk fire zones in the state in exchange for a number of concessions that will make it easier, in theory, for them to get higher rate increases through the state regulator more quickly. The announcement comes the week after negotiations in Sacramento over a legislative response to the home insurance market fell apart.
Gov. Gavin Newsom also issued an executive order on Thursday afternoon commanding the insurance commissioner to “take prompt regulatory action to strengthen and stabilize California’s marketplace” and consider whether emergency action could be necessary.
The changes are slated to go into effect by the end of 2024, but the hope is that insurers will return to writing new homeowners policies in California sooner. Leading insurers such as State Farm, USAA and Allstate all have requests for rate increases pending with the state insurance department, and are requesting hikes of 28.1 percent, 30.6 percent and 39.6 percent, respectively.
If approved, each company would be allowed to raise its total premiums in the state by that amount, but the rate increase can be distributed differently among homeowners: a cabin in the woods might see a 200 percent jump while a home in San Francisco could see little to no change.