Another video for out-of-town buyers – it’s a virtual showing! This sale closed for $4,100,000 on 12/16/16:
Category Archive: ‘La Jolla’
A wild assortment of photos from long ago.
Bird Rock, 1930:
Solana Beach, 1928:
Rancho Santa Fe in the 1920’s:
“In 1965, a real estate developer stumbled upon a lush valley that combined natural beauty with perfect weather: and the vision for La Costa was born”. Everything except the top of the hill is covered with houses now:
I do video tours for out-of-town clients – it’s a virtual showing to help buyers decide if they need to get on a plane. If it’s a hot one, I’ll tell you:
It’s that time of the year – the 2017 forecasts are starting to roll out!
Zillow has been conservative about our local markets. For the most part, the actual appreciation of the Zillow Home Value Index has been higher than their forecasts over the last two years.
Their local forecasts for 2017 are all lower than their 2016 guesses, and what they are predicting could also be described as ‘Flatsville’. If their local forecasts of +0.9% to +2.2% come true, it would mean that several sellers would end up selling for less than they could have gotten in 2016.
Are we ready for that yet?
Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts
The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.
The coastline is very accessible around La Jolla Cove, if you can just find a place to park. I’ve been to the caves – to the left in cover shot below – by going through the Cave Store, but the kayak version looks exciting too.
This just closed for $9,700,000 – congrats Jonathan!
Our regular commenter elbarcosr backed me up on how wacky the zestimates have been lately. They seem to be getting worse, which is hard to believe.
Being a Zillow homer now, I thought I better look into it.
Let’s serve up a nice big softball. Certainly the zestimates have to be accurate on recently-sold homes, don’t they? We saw how Redfin’s evaluator can cozy up close to a recent list or sales price, and you can’t blame them. After a few years, the database would look pretty consistent.
Does Zillow do the same? Wouldn’t it make sense to have your algorithm compute a recent sales price into the property’s zestimate? Because if you did, it would also help value the nearby homes that haven’t sold recently – because that’s how everyone would value them.
Evaluations in unique, non-tract areas is tougher. But if we are just looking at recently-sold properties, and their zestimates – the uniqueness shouldn’t matter as much!
I looked at 28 homes sold in La Jolla, Del Mar, and Rancho Santa Fe that closed between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 in 4Q15, and compared their sales price (the definition of value) to their zestimates.
The average margin of error was 16%, and after removing the four that were wrong by more than $1,000,000, the average error was still 12%.
These are houses recently sold, and their sales price defines the actual value!
Even though the $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 range is the lower end for those areas and there are plenty of comps to help pin-point a zestimate, let’s consider an easier target.
Carmel Valley should be the hotbed of zestimate accuracy, especially when we look at the low-end where every data point is a pure tract house.
There were 57 CV sales in the fourth quarter between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000 that were considered.
The average margin of error was 3.6%, which is probably acceptable. But if it was any higher, there would be concerns – these are tract houses that just sold in 4Q15, and have a long history of steady comps around them!
The only zestimates that might be close are in pure tract neighborhoods.
Disregard all others.
For those back east who are hunkered down and wondering where to go, may I suggest our fair city of San Diego? Here’s a brief tour: