Rates Near 3-Year Lows

Mortgage rates are are extremely favorable, and should slide a bit further next week.

How much lower could they go?

Below is a link to an article that compares today to 2011/2012 – an excerpt:

If we merely match 2011’s performance, the current rally could last almost another year and result in 10yr yields below 1.0%.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/919041.aspx

Lower Rates = More Affordable

If Ivy said it, it must be so! P.S. 10-yr bond yield down to 1.54%:

While Wall Street panics about falling rates, Main Street is benefiting, especially in the housing market, according to housing guru Ivy Zelman.

She says every quarter-point cut in mortgage rates is equivalent to a 3 percent drop in the price of a home.

“Right now housing prices are down for the consumer more than 10%, so it makes it much more affordable,” Zelman, told CNBC’s Diana Olick on Wednesday. “We are seeing very good activity, especially in the low end of the market.”

Zelman is known for predicting the 2005 housing peak and the 2012 housing bottom. She is the founder or Zelman & Associates, a research firm that surveys housing market experts for institutional investors and corporate executives.

Interest rates have been falling in the U.S. and abroad as worries about a trade war and a global slowdown cause investors to ditch riskier plays and buy into bonds, a historically safer trade. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623% on Wednesday, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%, causing a key yield curve inversion that sent markets tanking.

Although stock market investors are worried tumbling rates and an inverted yield curve mean recession, Zelman said home buyers are not as “laser focused” on market headlines.

Tenancy In Common

Aisling Swindell was paying so much for rent last year—$2,100 per month to live in a studio in Downtown LA—she figured she might as well buy a place.

“The house I ended up buying was $440,000, which is insane, right?” says Swindell, who works for an online fashion company.

That price tag, which is $178,000 below the median in LA County, sounds unbelievable, especially for what she bought: 870 square feet in the city, plus a little yard, lots of natural light, some stylish updates, and charming, 1930s-era details, like wainscoting and solid wood doors.

But while she’s no longer a renter, she still doesn’t, technically, own a house.

Her $440,000 bought her a share of a larger property: a triplex on an 8,344-square-foot lot in Jefferson Park. Her right to occupy the unit, and her responsibility for maintaining it, are spelled out in a contract with her neighbors, who live in the triplex and, with her, are its joint owners.

Read full article here:

https://la.curbed.com/2019/8/8/20751845/tenancy-in-common-los-angeles-rental-girl

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Are you thinking this would be a great way to sell your multi-unit building in San Diego?

I can help you with that!

Buyers can get mortgages up to $850,000 with a 10% down payment.

Contact me today at (858) 997-3801 or klingerealty@gmail.com.

Steady In NSDCC

Though there has been a lot of noise and commotion in the real estate business lately, our local market has been relatively solid, given how unaffordable homes are for the masses:

NSDCC Between June 1 – July 31

Year
Number of Listings
Number of Closings
Listings/Closings Ratio
Median Sales Price
2014
937
593
1.58
$1,045,000
2015
1,056
663
1.59
$1,050,000
2016
1,008
583
1.73
$1,165,000
2017
856
624
1.37
$1,255,000
2018
925
572
1.62
$1,302,500
2019
894
553
1.62
$1,289,500

Of these six years, the mortgage rates were the lowest in the summer of 2016, so there doesn’t seem to be a direct connection between rates and sales – the L/C ratio was the worst then.

The number of sales were the lowest this year, and you could blame it on the lack of opportunity – there hasn’t been that many new listings. It’s surprising we had that many sales.

Look how close we have been hugging the median L/C ratio of 1.6 lately!

As long as the supply remains in check, our market conditions probably won’t change much.

Virtually-Staged 3D Tours

Virtual staging has reached another level with the partnering of these two companies:

3D and 360° Virtual Tour developers GeoCV are proud to announce a partnership with photo editing professionals BoxBrownie.com in their latest business venture.

New York Based PropTech start-up GeoCV specializes in creating high-quality professional 3D and 360° walkthroughs. Their Virtual Open House service offers the full suite of real estate visual marketing. Everything from cutting-edge 3D + 360° photorealistic -walkthroughs with textured floor plans, to professional photos and now virtual staging.

The decision to partner with BoxBrownie.com to virtually stage open house tours now allows clients to envisage furnished spaces in order to better understand how the room will look within the home. For $64 per 360° image, in a guaranteed timeframe of 48 hours, clients can change the tour from an empty listing to reveal what the space will look like with high-quality furniture that is suited to the home. This technology is leading the charge in the real estate industry and completely changing the way clients view properties and their perception of the space.

“We are excited to partner with the talented team at BoxBrownie, the online hub for virtual staging and image enhancements. GeoCV’s imaginative open architecture is uniquely positioned to fuel growth for the reality capture ecosystem. Rather than limiting service for premium listings, our mutual goal is to affordably serve the mass real estate market.” – Jonathan Klein of GeoCV.

Here’s an example:

GeoCV Virtually Staged 3D Tour from GeoCV on Vimeo.

It may heighten the anticipation in buyers and get them to tour a home in person that they otherwise might have skipped, but somebody still needs put the deal together, and keep it together, for the sale to succeed.

Cost of iBuyers

If you’re interested, I can deliver a cash offer to you today!

Here’s research on the costs:

But what, exactly, do iBuyers bring to the table for home sellers? And, can this business model survive the housing market downturn so many are predicting?

That’s what Collateral Analytics sought to answer in a recent paper on the topic, which offered a deep dive into the strength of the iBuying concept.

First introduced in Phoenix by Opendoor in 2014, the iBuying concept offers home sellers the opportunity to sell and close on their home within days, hassle-free. The iBuyer then completes any necessary repairs and lists the home for sale.

“For motivated sellers who want a predictable sale date and need to move, perhaps a long distance from the current location, there is no question that iBuyers have provided a welcome alternative to traditional brokerage,” Collateral Analytics pointed out.

But all that convenience comes at a cost. The paper dissected the math behind the model, estimating that sellers end up paying between 13% to 15% more when they work with an iBuyer. This covers a difference in fees that ranges from 2% to 5% greater than a traditional real estate agency, plus an allowance for repairs and another 3% to 5% to cover the iBuyer’s liquidity risks and carrying costs.

The paper also noted that the iBuying model makes these companies susceptible to a number of risks, including the need to safeguard vacant homes and the possibility that the automated valuation models they rely on will overvalue a property, resulting in a loss.

They could also face troubles if home prices decline.

“A downturn in home prices, not forecast by the iBuyer market analysts, could be devastating as they ramp up their business platforms, particularly if the cost of capital increases,” the paper stated. “At the same time, downturns are precisely when the most sellers would want this option.”

While Collateral Analytics lists several companies that are investing big in the iBuyer model – including Opendoor, OfferPad, Zillow Offers, Redfin, Realogy CataLIST, Perch and Keller Offers from Keller Williams – it also states that only the most efficient firms with enough capital and market share are likely to survive.

And of course, this all depends on how appealing the concept turns out to be, mainly, how many home sellers are willing to pay for convenience.

“For some sellers, needing to move or requiring quick extraction of equity, this is certainly worthwhile,” the paper stated, “but what percentage of the market will want this service remains to be seen.”

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/49809-with-ibuyers-sellers-pay-a-price-for-convenience

Inventory Watch

The big news about the Fed dropping their rate last week didn’t cause people to rush out and buy a house – in fact, we didn’t even do as well as last year when rates were 1% higher (51 new pendings over the last seven days vs 54 last year at this time).

Rates being 1% lower means they are 22% better than last year:

Remember when rates in the threes used to set off a flurry of sales?  Not any more:

This would be a good week for sellers to lower their price!

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